What process?You prefer to go through the whole process again next season?
What process?You prefer to go through the whole process again next season?
We needed 2, and then we traded Sale. So 3.This is bad math. Went in needing 2, added 1, lost 1, so still need 2.
Having the rotation as unsettled going into next season as it was heading into this season.What process?
Yeah Bres said they wanted to add two at the start of the offseason prior to trading Sale.We needed 2, and then we traded Sale. So 3.
Oh, ok. I thought you meant they went through a lengthy process to resolve their issues. But you were pointing out the opposite.Having the rotation as unsettled going into next season as it was heading into this season.
Yeah, while some suggest moving on from Montgomery and punting, if they can sign him (depending on the deal) you are potentially looking for one less hole to fill next season.Oh, ok. I thought you meant they went through a lengthy process to resolve their issues. But you were pointing out the opposite.
Yeah, I have flipped my outlook from eight months ago and am not counting on a resolution until I see one.
Gamblers fallacy, wish it did work that way though!With all the shit luck the Sox have had, it seems like they're due for some positive developments yeah????
Sure. But was there an actual identifiable health issue? Do we have reason to believe they didn't do a physical when they signed him?And one who was TERRIBLE the second half of last season. Yes, he had personal issues. Though I'm sure a lot of guys do, and still perform not too far from their mean. He was abjectly bad at the end of the season, and as a guy who has been historically good, that should raise some red flags and health concerns.
Ironically, this is exactly why a guy like Cooper Criswell was added. AAA depth that might be able to start.View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1765059906569392219?s=46
Margin thin error. Should have added more starters.
Not for an entire season. You add Cooper Criswell as someone who can come up and make a few starts if someone is on the shelf for a little while.Ironically, this is exactly why a guy like Cooper Criswell was added. AAA depth that might be able to start.
So, did Breslow and Bailey identify a goal for LG to throw his slider harder and now two innings pitched later- perhaps coincidentally- Giolito's elbow blew up? Three pitchers, three marked jumps in velocity at the very beginning of ST, and now one (potential) Tommy John surgery. Hmm.“I don’t think there have been enough clearly defined goals,” he said. “I think we’ve been slow to appreciate that spring training means something different for every player. There are players who are there to (just) prepare for the season and they know what that looks like; there are players there to get experience in spring training and get exposure to the major league staff; and there are players in-between who are there to compete for roster spots.
“But every players serves to get better in spring training, and for so long, it’s been, ‘Oh, we’re going to work on defense.’ Or ‘What are you looking to get better at?’ ‘Pitching’ Or “Hitting.’ Well, that’s not good enough. We have technology, we have data that allows us to pinpoint precisely how we need to get better on defense or how we can get better as a pitcher or as a hitter.
“So creating really well-defined goals and development plans around every player and ensuring that we’ve got our hitting, pitching, baserunning and defense coaches aligned with those plans, but also our medical staff, our strength and conditioning staff, our analytics staff, all speaking the same language so that we can ensure that every contribution is additive and not either diluting or worse yet, confusing.”
Define "fine".Jeez. Take it to Twitter. They will sign someone else and be fine.
I agree, but it's only a bump of one slot. Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski, then Cooper/Fitts/Murphy/Walter.Not for an entire season. You add Cooper Criswell as someone who can come up and make a few starts if someone is on the shelf for a little while.
Going into the offseason, they had some very talented arms that simply needed to be pushed down the depth chart. Now, suddenly, Houck is your 4th starter vs. swingman. Whitlock is your 5th starter vs. pen arm. Cooper is your 6th starter vs. 8th.
I just don't know how to explain how this is anything other than a complete disaster.
Houck may not be a viable starter.I agree, but it's only a bump of one slot. Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski, then Cooper/Fitts/Murphy/Walter.
I'm actually more concerned about the pen.
I'm pretty ready for this discussion to go to its own separate thread that I will never click on.From yahoo sports. In a text with one of her friends, she says: “Need daddy to choke me out,” another “Being an absolute WHORE to try to get in on his $51 million.”
There is still a lot of he said, she said, and I don't think he's a saint by any means, but she says to her friend that she wants it rough so she can get in on his money.
The only good news is if he comes back strong in the second half of 2025, they have a very reasonable $14mm option for 2026.So, no doubt now that he exercises the 2025 option for $19 million and so we already start 2025 with a $19 million commitment for a player that probably will miss some of 2025. Great.
Nobody will improve over last year? I don't get the defeatism. It's baseball, player performances are constantly changing.Define "fine".
This was ALREADY a 85-90 loss team WITH Giolito
Nobody else will get worse or get hurt? Yes, performances are always changing but not always in a positive direction.Nobody will improve over last year? I don't get the defeatism. It's baseball, player performances are constantly changing.
I don't know if I would phrase it quite that way but it's fair to say that the error bars on all of these guys are pretty wide. That is (was) a key part of the rationale for signing Monty. Whatever he is, his error bars are pretty narrow. His injury risk is relatively low for his occupation (which starts at, what, 30%? anyway). The Sox need an ace-level performer, like everyone else, but unlike most teams, they need to KNOW what they are getting from at least one or two of their key pitchers.Houck may not be a viable starter.
Whitlock probably isn't a viable starter.
Winkowski most likely isn't a viable starter.
Fitts maybe a viable stater
Murphy and Walter are not viable starters.
It's a staff that was on a razors edge BEFORE the Giolito injury. They have to, at the bare minimum, bring in another arm and really they need two.
Silver lining I guess. Just really hard to take that we're already $19 million on the books for the guy in 2025.The only good news is if he comes back strong in the second half of 2025, they have a very reasonable $14mm option for 2026.
This is the exact scenario for why they included the 2026 team option
Sure, but they are a young team coming off ridiculous numbers of injuries. Even the older guys like Yoshida are more likely to trend upward in performance for the obvious reasons. But you never know.Nobody else will get worse or get hurt? Yes, performances are always changing but not always in a positive direction.
I would think the "exact scenario" was not a catastrophic injury, but one or more smaller ones that reduced his IP in 2025 below 140. The idea that the 2026 option would be insurance for him missing a year+, after which he pitches really well but less than 140ip in 2025 is . . . a dimension of chess I hope we're not playing.The only good news is if he comes back strong in the second half of 2025, they have a very reasonable $14mm option for 2026.
This is the exact scenario for why they included the 2026 team option
That’s the player’s decision, not the club’s. I could argue that Giolito also would benefit from having surgery sooner rather than later (more likely to pitch 140 innings in 2025 and avoid the 2026 club option), but players are human and naturally tend to defer surgery until doctors are no longer presenting viable non-surgical options.They need to figure out quickly if he needs surgery and if so get it done as soon as possible so there will be a chance of him contributing at some point in 2025.
Maybe @radsoxfan can speak to this, but my understanding is that every veteran pitcher has issues that would raise concern on an MRI. Perhaps you can tell if a specific past injury has healed properly, but pre-signing physicals don’t seem to have much predictive value.And one who was TERRIBLE the second half of last season. Yes, he had personal issues. Though I'm sure a lot of guys do, and still perform not too far from their mean. He was abjectly bad at the end of the season, and as a guy who has been historically good, that should raise some red flags and health concerns.
I don’t think so. Most projections have them around .500, and I think the new pitching infrastructure plus any modicum of good fortune regarding health (insert joke here) makes them an 85ish win team. This definitely hurts, no doubt. But a lot of the people who mocked the Giolito signing are the same ones crying that his absence tanks the season. If the Sox go out and get Clevinger or Lorenzen, I still think they’re a mid-80s contender. If they get Montgomery, perhaps better. I’m also fine with selling off expiring vets and accelerating the rebuild. That was Bloom’s biggest flaw: never folding nor raising any hands. I don’t think Breslow will make the same mistake.Define "fine".
This was ALREADY a 85-90 loss team WITH Giolito
Like this one.I'm pretty ready for this discussion to go to its own separate thread that I will never click on.
Both the team's hitters and pitchers were the sixth-oldest groups in all of baseball last year. Sure, they got rid of Kluber and Paxton while adding Vaughn Grissom and Rafaela, but this is not a "young team." They did suffer more than average injuries last year, but it was nothing egregious -- eighth in both number of days missed and players to go on the IL. But that's to be expected when you have an old team, as the Red Sox do.Sure, but they are a young team coming off ridiculous numbers of injuries. Even the older guys like Yoshida are more likely to trend upward in performance for the obvious reasons. But you never know.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1765087682282319939?s=46Breslow on the Sox broadcast said what you would expect. Waiting for more information on Giolito, believes they have the candidates internally to fill role, seeing positive effects of new pitching infrastructure.
Bello is a below average #1 starterI agree, but it's only a bump of one slot. Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski, then Cooper/Fitts/Murphy/Walter.
I'm actually more concerned about the pen.
C Wong 27Both the team's hitters and pitchers were the sixth-oldest groups in all of baseball last year. Sure, they got rid of Kluber and Paxton while adding Vaughn Grissom and Rafaela, but this is not a "young team." They did suffer more than average injuries last year, but it was nothing egregious -- eighth in both number of days missed and players to go on the IL. But that's to be expected when you have an old team, as the Red Sox do.
Gonna call "bullshit" on this one buddy. But a friendly kind of bullshit, since yeah, they (like all pitchers) could all get injured or faceplant. But the case for them is this:Houck may not be a viable starter.
Whitlock probably isn't a viable starter.
Winkowski most likely isn't a viable starter.
Fitts maybe a viable stater
Murphy and Walter are not viable starters.
It's a staff that was on a razors edge BEFORE the Giolito injury. They have to, at the bare minimum, bring in another arm and really they need two.
Well he's not going to say on a podcast "I guess we are desperate to sign a free agent starter now". Gotta wait and see. I'm sure they know openers are unacceptable long term.View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1765087682282319939?s=46
The Opener’s Tour coming to a city near you
Dude, numbers are numbers and there are 29 other teams with plenty of talent in the mid-to-late 20s, too. This isn't a matter of opinion. We'll find out exactly where they stand when opening day rosters are finalized, but last year they were the sixth-oldest team in baseball and there hasn't been a lot of roster turnover since the last day of the season. At best, it looks they'll be slightly younger this season.C Wong 27
1b Casas 24
2b Grissom 23
ss Story 31
3b Devers 27
LF Duran 27
CF Rafaela 23
RF Abreu 24
DH Yoshida 30
SP Bello 24, Crawford 27, Houck 27, Pivetta 31, Winckowski? 25
Reserves O'Neill 28, McGuire 29
Giolito is 29, though he's not in the plans anymore. Two key players are 30+ and Story is healed from injury while Yoshida hopefully is over his learning curve.
You can be down on their talent level but I don't see how they continue to profile as an "old" team. The numbers from last year no longer apply, and were pretty skewed by Turner, Kluber, Paxton and Sale.
I’m open minded, but could you develop this case a bit?Houck and Whitlock aren’t yet guys you want to go third time through the order, maybe even second time with Whitlock
Sometimes numbers aren't numbers. Give us a link.Dude, numbers are numbers and there are 29 other teams with plenty of talent in the mid-to-late 20s, too. This isn't a matter of opinion. We'll find out exactly where they stand when opening day rosters are finalized, but last year they were the sixth-oldest team in baseball and there hasn't been a lot of roster turnover since the last day of the season. At best, it looks they'll be slightly younger this season.
OK, well then circling back to the start of this thread, I asserted that their 2024 performance wasn't set in stone, and given the age of the players involved, plus the rash of injuries that almost certainly won't recur (e.g. Story's elbow), there's reason not to just write off the season because last year sucked. That's all. It doesn't really come down to who else has an average age of whatever. I'm simply saying that last year looks a lot closer to this team's floor than its ceiling.Dude, numbers are numbers and there are 29 other teams with plenty of talent in the mid-to-late 20s, too. This isn't a matter of opinion. We'll find out exactly where they stand when opening day rosters are finalized, but last year they were the sixth-oldest team in baseball and there hasn't been a lot of roster turnover since the last day of the season. At best, it looks they'll be slightly younger this season.