Ooops. My bad. Thanks for the clarification!Imagine giving up a ton of prospects and a $400 million contract only to find out Soto bats left handed.
But for the record I was talking about Mario Soto.
Ooops. My bad. Thanks for the clarification!Imagine giving up a ton of prospects and a $400 million contract only to find out Soto bats left handed.
For what it's worth, I'd certainly say yes, it was.Yeah. I understand the urgency we all have to see the Sox improve the rotation but I don't understand why some seem to feel it has to be done with long term commitments in order for it to be done "right".
I'm reminded of some of the sentiment back in December 2009 when they had signed John Lackey was that now they had a full rotation locked in for at least 3-4 years (Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Matsuzaka). Part of that was motivated by the farm being a bit lacking in pitching prospects around that time, but in retrospect, was it the best path forward? It also seemed like a reaction to the previous winter when the rotation was filled out by one year contracts to Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Maybe a one year deal to someone else (Bedard, Harden, Penny again) instead of Lackey keeps them in play for a Cliff Lee the following winter or Yu Darvish the winter after. Who knows?
Point being, I'd rather see them go with another short-term signing like Giolito than extending an elite level contract to a non-elite level starter just to make a "long term" move.
I don't think it's the plan, but I do think they are ready to pounce opportunistically if their market collapses and they have to settle for a much smaller deal than hoped. That's not likely to happen, but at this point it's not a total longshot either. And of course, there are additional plans, independent of those two. I think.Cold water alert, I find it impossible to believe the plan is to land one of Snell or Montgomery. It would be a strategic and financial failure to put yourself in the position of having to sign one of them, whatever it takes, in February. This may be where the Giants are. Now, maybe Boras overplays his hand and the Sox get an unlikely opportunity late to take advantage of soft demand, but Breslow's working plan lies elsewhere.
Unless they've been signaling all winter (through vague and unsourced rumors in the media) that they don't want to spend in desperation to get one of those guys.Cold water alert, I find it impossible to believe the plan is to land one of Snell or Montgomery. It would be a strategic and financial failure to put yourself in the position of having to sign one of them, whatever it takes, in February. This may be where the Giants are. Now, maybe Boras overplays his hand and the Sox get an unlikely opportunity late to take advantage of soft demand, but Breslow's working plan lies elsewhere.
If either can be had at overpaying cost ($30M per) at 5 years or less, it's a great deal in a way now.... I wonder if that's the hold up on them. I also can't imagine any of these guys will be looking for one year deals like Giolito. Their respective values is more likely to go down than up at their age and how well they set themselves up for this offseason. I mean... yeah, it's possible, but it'd be a pretty dangerous chance to take.Cold water alert, I find it impossible to believe the plan is to land one of Snell or Montgomery. It would be a strategic and financial failure to put yourself in the position of having to sign one of them, whatever it takes, in February. This may be where the Giants are. Now, maybe Boras overplays his hand and the Sox get an unlikely opportunity late to take advantage of soft demand, but Breslow's working plan lies elsewhere.
I think you're probably on to something here, but I don't necessarily think it's cold water if so. Personally, I am kind of fascinated to see the new FO form a personality of its own, and I am not married to any approach. These are some smart folks and I think they deserve a chance to form a collective identity. YMMV.Cold water alert, I find it impossible to believe the plan is to land one of Snell or Montgomery. It would be a strategic and financial failure to put yourself in the position of having to sign one of them, whatever it takes, in February. This may be where the Giants are. Now, maybe Boras overplays his hand and the Sox get an unlikely opportunity late to take advantage of soft demand, but Breslow's working plan lies elsewhere.
If Stroman goes to NY, the musical chairs of viable suitors for both are dwindling.Cold water alert, I find it impossible to believe the plan is to land one of Snell or Montgomery. It would be a strategic and financial failure to put yourself in the position of having to sign one of them, whatever it takes, in February. This may be where the Giants are. Now, maybe Boras overplays his hand and the Sox get an unlikely opportunity late to take advantage of soft demand, but Breslow's working plan lies elsewhere.
I'm thinking out loud here, but this is also a part of having a strong farm system, especially in today's game. How many true top of the rotation guys were out there this year. Yamamoto, Nola, perhaps Montgomery? The first two seem to have had a clear preference as to where they wanted to pitch and the other is still out there with likely 6 or so suitors. So perhaps one guy available. Is he a "whatever it takes" kind of talent? $25-$30M per year for how many years? Is he THAT guy? BTW, these are mostly rhetorical because I have no idea, but my gut tells me $162M ($27M per) for 6 is pushing the edge of uncomfortable for me. Is 5/$150M nuts? IDK Definite points for his durability the past 3 seasons (avg. between 5.1 and 5.2 IP per start over 95 starts) and we all know the need for that.The problem is that they are continually missing on pitchers that would just cost money and not draft picks or top prospects. They've built up a pretty good farm system and having to unload a Roman Anthony or a Marcelo Mayer for a true top of the rotation guy would undercut a lot of what they've been building toward.
Well I'll give you one thing, you've been pretty consistent in your body of work here.Every time there is a free agent who signs with another team (that the sox were linked to) This bosrd inevitably cones out with
1. He was really not any good anyways
2. Too expensive, not cost effective
3. Its only January
Pure BS
as this team spirals to yet another last place finish in the AL east, the ownership defenders come home to roost
There must be an army of cold, detached, John Henry sponsored bots on this board.
the organization is cheap and going no where. How long does the ownership skirt responsibility and posters allow them to get away with it
I don’t think those kind of statements are going to fly here. This isn’t Reddit.By the way Giolito sucks no matter how short the contract
Come on. we've had this discussion and I don't think you're listening. We've barely entered the FA season and you're writing a Doomsday scenario. This is talk radio BS. If you think that there are specific players who would have warranted the investment of big dollars who the RS have passed on, identify them and we'll discuss the merits of your suggestion.Every time there is a free agent who signs with another team (that the sox were linked to) This bosrd inevitably cones out with
1. He was really not any good anyways
2. Too expensive, not cost effective
3. Its only January
Pure BS
as this team spirals to yet another last place finish in the AL east, the ownership defenders come home to roost
There must be an army of cold, detached, John Henry sponsored bots on this board.
the organization is cheap and going no where. How long does the ownership skirt responsibility and posters allow them to get away with it
I'm sure he's aware of it. He's offered nothing of substance in the 13 posts he's made here in the past year.I don’t think those kind of statements are going to fly here. This isn’t Reddit.
We've barely entered the FA season?Come on. we've had this discussion and I don't think you're listening. We've barely entered the FA season and you're writing a Doomsday scenario.
To be fair, we are way past "barely entered the FA season". 11 of the top 15 free agent SP are gone. I'm not panicking, but I'm...curious. My guess remains they are still in "sign the best guys who will take one or two years" mode.Come on. we've had this discussion and I don't think you're listening. We've barely entered the FA season and you're writing a Doomsday scenario. This is talk radio BS. If you think that there are specific players who would have warranted the investment of big dollars who the RS have passed on, identify them and we'll discuss the merits of your suggestion.
I think the main angst is that the avenues to improve this team to realistically compete this year have nearly completely dry up. Even if they get extremely lucky and lets say Pivetta and Giolito become top line starters (this isn't completely unrealistic but very unlikely), they are on their walk years. So the team is right back to square zero next offseason if it does "succeed". The team needs top line starting talent as a foundation to build their team. Instead they have a couple of rental lottery tickets, a mid rotation starter (which is very valuable) in Bello, a bunch of guys that have real issues the third time through lineup, and no pitching help in AAA/AA. This is the weakest pitching situation the Red Sox have been in since FSG took over by a wide margin. Pitching has become an insanely costly and it is clear how difficult the market is. But instead of investing into it, the team stubbornly keeps trying to find some sort of bargain in a gambler's fallacy.I'd like to say that think it's totally fair and valid to say "it's only..." and "let's see what it looks like at..." As noted, we don't know what players the Red Sox are targeting in Free Agency (aside from Giolito) and we don't know what players they're taking about in trades (aside from Dickie Fitts and Vaughn Grissom). This is obviously correct.
I think the angst comes from a few places.
Again, I don't in any way discount the "it's still early" and the "we have no idea what they're going to do" arguments. Both of those things are certainly correct. But at some point when we've seen the same pattern (with the same totally valid arguments) lead to pretty horrendous baseball that hasn't been all that competitive AND hasn't done all that much to build up for the future in terms of selling off at the deadlines, while the dates of the rebuild just get stretched out further and further, I wouldn't say that the angst is totally unfounded either.
I get where you are going here and I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but ultimately the Red Sox need starters to fill innings and Giolito does do that. How effective those innings will be remains to be seen, but he'll likely be out there for 180 of them. I don't love the contract and would have preferred someone better, but he fills a basic need.I think the main angst is that the avenues to improve this team to realistically compete this year have nearly completely dry up. Even if they get extremely lucky and lets say Pivetta and Giolito become top line starters (this isn't completely unrealistic but very unlikely), they are on their walk years. So the team is right back to square zero next offseason if it does "succeed". The team needs top line starting talent as a foundation to build their team. Instead they have a couple of rental lottery tickets, a mid rotation starter (which is very valuable) in Bello, a bunch of guys that have real issues the third time through lineup, and no pitching help in AAA/AA. This is the weakest pitching situation the Red Sox have been in since FSG took over by a wide margin. Pitching has become an insanely costly and it is clear how difficult the market is. But instead of investing into it, the team stubbornly keeps trying to find some sort of bargain in a gambler's fallacy.
The reality is if you aren't going to pay top dollar, you need to either trade away prospects or gamble more long term on guys like Giolito. I get Giolito didn't want to get locked in due to his two down years, but if you are the Red Sox and you are looking up at the rest of the division, a one year gamble with three year's of cost is a terrible idea. It is weird because they made the long term gamble with Story and Yoshida when it made no sense (the team had a ton of OF and middle infield prospects to fill in) but refuse to with pitching. It is an obsession with winning every trade and being the smartest guys in the room that have strangled this team.
I can totally accept if Breslow would come out and say "Look we tried to come out but no one fit into our plans this is going to be a longer rebuild than we thought." but then why would you give Giolito that contract? That is the contract you give when you are a mid rotation pitcher away and you have the money to role the dice. The only way the Giolito contract makes sense is if you gave up already, and you are looking to get some lotto tickets to flip in July for assets like the Red Sox should have done with Paxton. If that is the case don't pretend to be interested in Imanaga. You weren't.
They need to stop with this pretense that they are trying to win. They are not. They are trying to win if the price is right. That is fine but set expectations and stop bullshitting. FSG is not going to stop the bullshit because they want people to keep buying tickets for middling product at premium price. To admit you are taking a step back would mean there would be an expectation of pricing accordingly.
Yes, mid January used to be MLB Siberia. We’re a month from pitchers and catchers. I think Snell definitely might have to do a 3 year deal.To be fair, we are way past "barely entered the FA season". 11 of the top 15 free agent SP are gone. I'm not panicking, but I'm...curious. My guess remains they are still in "sign the best guys who will take one or two years" mode.
Unless, of course, Snell or Monty have to take a 3 year deal.
Forgive the lack of an addition here, but I think this is a great post and a really reasonable POV.I think that the big problem with this offseason is that we know that the Red Sox have two really big needs: starting pitching and right handed pop. Knowing that, we get pumped for the players that could answer those bells:
- First it was Ohtani and we got our hopes up a bit and even though there was a less than 5% shot when he was knocked off the board, it stung a bit.
- Then it was Soto and he was traded to the Yankees.
- Then it was Yamamoto and he went to the Dodgers.
So then we have to shift to tier two acquisitions:
- Teoscar: gone
- Imanango: joins the Cubs.
- Stroman: probably going to the Yanks.
- And it doesn't sound like the Red Sox are in on Snell or Montgomery or Burnes or Cease or Lauzado -- I mean they could be, but we haven't heard that they were.
It's like water torture watching player after player choose anyone but the Red Sox (except for Giolito) and it's frustrating. And @CR67dream, you're 100% right it is only January 10 and we should probably wait until five weeks before declaring the off season a disaster but I mean, this is a real-time message board and I think that the frustrations of watching other teams pick up the players that you wanted (actually needed) while you're seemingly treading water sucks. And I think it's okay to say that it sucks.
I don't even particularly like Stroman that much, but he'd be better than what we have right now. To top it all off there is nothing coming from Fenway so it's not even like you can hear Breslow or Kennedy or John Henry say something, it's all innuendo and reading tea leaves and unnamed sources telling us what they think that the Sox are thinking. Loose lips sink ships is great for a military attack, but for fuck's sake, this is a baseball team trying to get people hyped up to buy tickets in the summer; a little transparency would be nice.
I agree with so much of this.I think the main angst is that the avenues to improve this team to realistically compete this year have nearly completely dry up. Even if they get extremely lucky and lets say Pivetta and Giolito become top line starters (this isn't completely unrealistic but very unlikely), they are on their walk years. So the team is right back to square zero next offseason if it does "succeed". The team needs top line starting talent as a foundation to build their team. Instead they have a couple of rental lottery tickets, a mid rotation starter (which is very valuable) in Bello, a bunch of guys that have real issues the third time through lineup, and no pitching help in AAA/AA. This is the weakest pitching situation the Red Sox have been in since FSG took over by a wide margin. Pitching has become an insanely costly and it is clear how difficult the market is. But instead of investing into it, the team stubbornly keeps trying to find some sort of bargain in a gambler's fallacy.
The reality is if you aren't going to pay top dollar, you need to either trade away prospects or gamble more long term on guys like Giolito. I get Giolito didn't want to get locked in due to his two down years, but if you are the Red Sox and you are looking up at the rest of the division, a one year gamble with three year's of cost is a terrible idea. It is weird because they made the long term gamble with Story and Yoshida when it made no sense (the team had a ton of OF and middle infield prospects to fill in) but refuse to with pitching. It is an obsession with winning every trade and being the smartest guys in the room that have strangled this team.
I can totally accept if Breslow would come out and say "Look we tried to come out but no one fit into our plans this is going to be a longer rebuild than we thought." but then why would you give Giolito that contract? That is the contract you give when you are a mid rotation pitcher away and you have the money to role the dice. The only way the Giolito contract makes sense is if you gave up already, and you are looking to get some lotto tickets to flip in July for assets like the Red Sox should have done with Paxton. If that is the case don't pretend to be interested in Imanaga. You weren't.
They need to stop with this pretense that they are trying to win. They are not. They are trying to win if the price is right. That is fine but set expectations and stop bullshitting. FSG is not going to stop the bullshit because they want people to keep buying tickets for middling product at premium price. To admit you are taking a step back would mean there would be an expectation of pricing accordingly.
Do you think there's a dollar amount they can spend right now to make them into a serious WS frontrunner this year? I'm not being snarky at all, I'm legit curious. And I'm also not 100% sure what you mean by "win". I certainly think they're going to try to contend and build over the next few years with a lot of young talent knocking on the door. I just don't think they're anywhere near WS or Bust at this point. Nor should they be.They need to stop with this pretense that they are trying to win. They are not. They are trying to win if the price is right.
I would have rather them go in 75/3 with a fourth year option then the current contract (I know Gioloto might not have said yes to this exact construct but it would have somewhere in this area) because you are correct. I am not saying getting Giolito is bad, I am saying the structure of the contract before Imanaga and the rest of the market settled makes little sense unless you know you are punting. By the way, it would be totally fair after you trade Sale get completely shut down by Seattle and then not get movement from Florida, that you realize this isn't your year and go short term with Giolito.I get where you are going here and I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but ultimately the Red Sox need starters to fill innings and Giolito does do that. How effective those innings will be remains to be seen, but he'll likely be out there for 180 of them. I don't love the contract and would have preferred someone better, but he fills a basic need.
I am not saying getting Giolito is bad, I am saying the structure of the contract before Imanaga and the rest of the market settled makes little sense unless you know you are punting.
Now? No, that ship has sailed this offseason. They aren't going to win unless 1) a monkey or a dog join the team with hilarity ensuing, 2) An Angel comes down and helps them win, or 3) a 12 YO breaks his arm and gains the ability to throw 100 mph heat (I am looking at you Mata). Maybe they can win the division if Kennedy threatens to move the team to Orlando and Cora has a good picture of Kennedy in a skimpy pull away cocktail gown (not sure what his policy is on leopard print).Do you think there's a dollar amount they can spend right now to make them into a serious WS frontrunner this year? I'm not being snarky at all, I'm legit curious. And I'm also not 100% sure what you mean by "win". I certainly think they're going to try to contend and build over the next few years with a lot of young talent knocking on the door. I just don't think they're anywhere near WS or Bust at this point. Nor should they be.
Recency bias and all, but the Mets won the off season last year, largely on impulse and money. Padres not looking so hot. It's no slam dunk that going that route doesn't blow up in your face.
Eh, you are right it is not clear cut but outside of trade with Florida, Seattle, or if Houston has gone crazy and/or cheap, I really can't see where that plays out. Adding Montegomery isn't going to get you to where the Giolito contract makes sense outside of the punting context.It's not that clear-cut. Getting Giolito on the roster sooner provided more flexibility for pursuing other moves as the the offseason plays out.
Come on man, I'm seriously trying to learn from you and understand why you think the outlook is so bleak. I don't see it that way. I have spent quite a bit of time explaining why, and said hand me a pitchfork if things look this way at the beginning of ST.That said, look, you don't care if they are last again or a couple of years, good for you? That is fine if that is your preference. I think it is super weird but to each their own. I would prefer the team to be honest about where they are.
This paragraph should be digested by all fans excepting the first sentence - I don't think its realistic for ownership to say that their strategy isn't anything but winning. However if you weigh the totality of their actions over the past five years or so (and beyond for the roots of it), they either lack the ability or the desire to go after free agents with a healthy market or premium players who will require a lot of risk in terms of dollars/years.They need to stop with this pretense that they are trying to win. They are not. They are trying to win if the price is right. That is fine but set expectations and stop bullshitting. FSG is not going to stop the bullshit because they want people to keep buying tickets for middling product at premium price. To admit you are taking a step back would mean there would be an expectation of pricing accordingly.
The only thing that's new in the FO is Breslow, isn't it? There are a lot of people in that front office who have been there a while.Come on man, I'm seriously trying to learn from you and understand why you think the outlook is so bleak. I don't see it that way. I have spent quite a bit of time explaining why, and said hand me a pitchfork if things look this way at the beginning of ST.
Why won't you give this FO a chance to show what they can do? They're brand new. I get that you believe FSG isn't gonna spend, but I just don't get the absolute certainty. All I've said is I'll wait and see.
Yeah, only a new guy running the show, that's all. We all know who's in that top position doesn't matter, right? Might as well have kept the old guy who couldn't seem to pull a trigger on any moves at the deadline. Moves the new guy made right out of the gate. Oh yeah some other tweaks too as you'll see if you read the Breslow thread.The only thing that's new in the FO is Breslow, isn't it? There are a lot of people in that front office who have been there a while.
Wow, that's a lot of sarcasm. All I said was it's not really a brand new front office. And nobody knows for sure where all the problems lay or didn't.Yeah, only a new guy running the show, that's all. We all know who's in that top position doesn't matter, right? Might as well have kept the old guy who couldn't seem to pull a trigger on any moves at the deadline. Moves the new guy made right out of the gate. Oh yeah some other tweaks too as you'll see if you read the Breslow thread.
That a lot of the staff was retained just means they saw the main problem was the guy at the top. You know this, right?
This is the perfect analogy, thank you.In short, they are maintaining the theme park. Just don't expect any cool new rides or any significant investment and you can still have a good time.
The Giolito roller coaster is over there. Ignore the scuffs and chipped paint. It still works fine!
Less hyperbolic analogy, and more analysis please.This is the perfect analogy, thank you.
Breslow walked into a tire fire and we aren't sure if he was given a fire truck or garden hose to fix it. It looks like a garden hose while Sam Kennedy is claiming it was a fire truck. I don't really want to blame Breslow because the only fixes to make FSG talking points a reality were spending multiple nine figures. Not getting YY at that price is reasonable unless you are the dickheads promising you are going to compete after enabling a spoiled child to run your team into the ground. It is not Breslow's fault they didn't get YY but it is FSG's fault. Don't say you are going to pull out all the stops and you will compete then pretend you are willing to do what is necessary up until you are called out.Yeah, only a new guy running the show, that's all. We all know who's in that top position doesn't matter, right? Might as well have kept the old guy who couldn't seem to pull a trigger on any moves at the deadline. Moves the new guy made right out of the gate. Oh yeah some other tweaks too as you'll see if you read the Breslow thread.
That a lot of the staff was retained just means they saw the main problem was the guy at the top. You know this, right?
Craig Breslow has spoken about wanting to improve Boston’s rotation this offseason and hasn’t been afraid to make big trades (Alex Verdugo to the Yankees, Chris Sale to the Braves). What starting pitcher do you think the Red Sox could acquire via trade if the team decides Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel are off-limits, but other prospects are on the table? — Tim K.
The Red Sox have made a lot of moves this offseason but I’m not sure their major-league team is any better than it was when the season ended. They’ve had trade discussions with the White Sox regarding Cease, but those have never gotten any traction. They touched base with the Brewers on Corbin Burnes and that went nowhere, and they had a conversation with the Marlins about Jesús Luzardo that also came up empty. Free agency remains their best shot at improving the rotation this offseason, but I’m not sure Red Sox ownership is willing to step up and pay the price it will take to land one of the top starters.
Not that he needs anyone to defend him, but I think @CR67dream has gone above and beyond to attempt to post in a sincere and earnest way. When so many people are posting in what, to me, feels like a bad-faith manner, a little sarcasm feels warranted.Wow, that's a lot of sarcasm. All I said was it's not really a brand new front office. And nobody knows for sure where all the problems lay or didn't.
That's nothing more than Boras trying to goad them into a big offer. Zero new information.Nothing particularly surprising, but sounds like they had some conversations for Cease, Burnes, and Luzardo that each went nowhere. From Bowden's mailbag in the Athletic:
My kid taught me about the Zorn palette. Maybe that's the Sox' plan, doing as much as possible with really not very much.Blue tends to be expensive. I’m pretty sure FSG has mandated that Breslow study up on the French Academy and get used to working with umber.
If things go really well and we’re in contention then maybe they’ll spring for some Naples yellow at the deadline.
I dont know about that. Dont most theme park rides work the same time after time? There's consistency. For some, the joy of sports is that we really have no idea what's going to happen (even though we pretend that we do). Giolito isnt Space Mountain, where I know exactly what's going to happen every time I hop on it (except for the night I rode it multiple times on mushrooms, yet I digress).This is the perfect analogy, thank you.
The thing with this is, in order to maintain the theme park, they need to at least be playoff contenders almost every year. The falloff in popularity is already dramatic and will be insane with more crappy seasons in the next year or two. Two more last place finishes would be catastrophic.In short, they are maintaining the theme park. Just don't expect any cool new rides or any significant investment and you can still have a good time.
That's absolutely fair, he certainly doesn't control the purse strings or make big unilateral decisions. I'm guessing if there was any truth in the reports of the Sox not offering more than two years to free agents, it meant without ownership approval. I don't know.But let's be very very clear there is a not a new guy running the show. There is a new guy running the day to day. He has been great at that.
I actually think the risk-reward is pretty similar, or at least as similar as you can get with two players with such different histories. I mean, Giolito's bad numbers last year were largely because he couldn't keep the ball in the park, which is the very same concern that teams have with Imanaga. Obviously, there is reason to think that Giolito can pitch better than that, because he has, and there is reason for some hope with Imanaga because he does have great stuff. So they are both high-risk/high reward but, as you point out, what's the point of Giolito on the Sox if they aren't going to be in a position to compete next year? A good Giolito walks in a year anyway, so I guess the only upside is winning a few more games in a non-contending year. That, or whatever return they might get for him if they are comfortable flipping him at the deadline. And the downside is pretty bad. They only get him for 25' if he sucks. With Imanaga's deal (if it really is just two years guaranteed) if the high-reward was realized in the first year, the Sox would have a below market starter for 2025, a year when they really should be better positioned to compete.The Giolito contract wasn't fantastic before seeing Imanaga. If Giolito turns it around you only have a year contract but if he doesn't you are on the hook for ~40/2. The contract is hugely on the player's side. Imanaga has a much lower risk and higher reward from what is being reported. Especially for a team like the Red Sox that aren't really in position to compete this year.
Shouldn’t have ownership have been transparent with Breslow about any potential spending restrictions before he was hired? If they weren’t up front about it, I would be pissed if I was Breslow.I actually think the risk-reward is pretty similar, or at least as similar as you can get with two players with such different histories. I mean, Giolito's bad numbers last year were largely because he couldn't keep the ball in the park, which is the very same concern that teams have with Imanaga. Obviously, there is reason to think that Giolito can pitch better than that, because he has, and there is reason for some hope with Imanaga because he does have great stuff. So they are both high-risk/high reward but, as you point out, what's the point of Giolito on the Sox if they aren't going to be in a position to compete next year? A good Giolito walks in a year anyway, so I guess the only upside is winning a few more games in a non-contending year. That, or whatever return they might get for him if they are comfortable flipping him at the deadline. And the downside is pretty bad. They only get him for 25' if he sucks. With Imanaga's deal (if it really is just two years guaranteed) if the high-reward was realized in the first year, the Sox would have a below market starter for 2025, a year when they really should be better positioned to compete.
It's funny, as someone who was particularly against an Imanaga signing, I still would have been more aggressive than the Sox were in pursuing him. I was against signing him because he seems like a project and, due to all the rumors of a long-term big money contract (5/$100m), I feared he would be paid like a star. If he's only guaranteed 2/$30m and everything else is coming through incentives (as has been rumored) that seems like you are actually paying him like a project, not a star, and that is a gamble that seems worth taking. I mean, Jesus, that is only $7 million more than what a 31 year-old Teo Hernandez got for one year, coming off a .740 OPS season. At the very least, it seems like a better play than signing Giolito.
That said, as long as Breslow was the one who didn't think outbidding the Cubs was worth it I have no issue with this. He is far more qualified than any of us to know if Imanaga is a project worth taking on. Unfortunately, since the Sox were actually rumored to be pretty involved, there is reason to be concerned that Breslow was more interested and was overruled by upper management. In that case, the team has more problems than just missing out on taking a reasonable gamble on Imanaga.
Whatever spending parameters are in place, there's no way Breslow didn't know about them when he took the job.Shouldn’t have ownership have been transparent with Breslow about any potential spending restrictions before he was hired? If they weren’t up front about it, I would be pissed if I was Breslow.
There is zero percent chance he took the job without knowing what the corporate plan was for the team.Shouldn’t have ownership have been transparent with Breslow about any potential spending restrictions before he was hired? If they weren’t up front about it, I would be pissed if I was Breslow.
Yea we are on the same page except I don't think they are stupid to think they can keep parading out drek. It is why I took swipe at the losing thing, I am just getting annoyed at how many people think the last four years have gone well. If people don't recognized what they just did is terrible, why would FSG ever invest in a winner? I wouldn't mind another down year if they just came out and said it.The thing with this is, in order to maintain the theme park, they need to at least be playoff contenders almost every year. The falloff in popularity is already dramatic and will be insane with more crappy seasons in the next year or two. Two more last place finishes would be catastrophic.
All I'm saying is that I'm not seeing them being blind to that, and I expect that if only to maintain the theme park, they know they have to put a better, competitive product on the field. They know this can't continue. I just don't think a slow developing offseason signifies a lack of commitment, and some seem to think it's a foregone conclusion. If I'm being obtuse, it's not intentional. The certainty of doom is really all I don't get. I'm just giving it time.
That's absolutely fair, he certainly doesn't control the purse strings or make big unilateral decisions. I'm guessing if there was any truth in the reports of the Sox not offering more than two years to free agents, it meant without ownership approval. I don't know.
I'm just not convinced they're stupid enough to keep rolling out drek year after year believing that will fly enough to keep asses in the seats and TV money rolling. I could be totally and completely wrong, but if they are, they'll pay the price. Unfortunately, so will we.
Ok. Care to provide evidence to the contrary? Just seems like everyone on here has read he's susceptible to home runs, imagines the ballpark he'll play in 50% of the time, and calls it an analysis.I think he might be good but if the math was that easy the Cubs would have had a lot more competition.
I am very impressed by what Breslow has pulled off thus far. I think that Grissom for Sale trade was a stroke of genius. I like the Giolito contract.Come on man, I'm seriously trying to learn from you and understand why you think the outlook is so bleak. I don't see it that way. I have spent quite a bit of time explaining why, and said hand me a pitchfork if things look this way at the beginning of ST.
Why won't you give this FO a chance to show what they can do? They're brand new. I get that you believe FSG isn't gonna spend, but I just don't get the absolute certainty. All I've said is I'll wait and see.
I am in no way content being last, and nothing I've posted even remotely suggests that. Please at least address my positions in good faith.
One of the things I'm fascinated to see is which prospects they will be willing to part with if any of the trades they're looking into pan out, and for what. One thing that may be different is that Breslow didn't have anything to do with drafting these kids, so unlike Bloom they're not his handiwork and the attachment is no where near as personal.I also don't think the farm is extraordinary, though it has a ton of future value. The range behind the top three aren't worth much in the trade market and the reality is Teel, Anthony, and Mayer maybe one becomes 4+ WAR player, on becomes a consistent starter, and one flames out. If they all become perennial all stars, amazing but the reality is there is very little chance of that. They would all need to take big steps forward except possibly Mayer. That doesn't mean a Teel or Anthony isn't valuable. What it does mean though is the farm is not going to save this team with its present trade and free agent strategy. They need be more aggressive to get back to the 92-95 win range
Sorry, cadmium red is way too expensive.My kid taught me about the Zorn palette. Maybe that's the Sox' plan, doing as much as possible with really not very much.
As the first sentence of your post indicated, they made several moves already this winter, acquiring a RHH RF (O'Neill), moving Verdugo (possible issues with Cora), acquiring a RHH 2B (Grissom) for Sale (clearly polarizing for some fans), and acquiring one of the best SP they actually could have signed in Giolito.* They even jumped out and got him relatively early. Which is now being spun as some kind of fail or something.This is a "what have you done for me lately" business and constantly sitting out free agency while touting prospects isn't the best way to capture the attention of a fanbase with a short attention span.
MLB.com had Giolito ranked as the #9 free agent starting pitcher available. Those ranked ahead of him:
- There was zero chance of Yamamoto, Nola, or ERod signing here
- Snell and Montgomery are clients of Boras, who's well known for diddlefucking around until spring training for his guys to sign
- Gray is 34, lives fairly close to St Louis, and rumors were floated that he wanted to go there all along
- Imanaga carries all the risk of a non-superstar Japanese pitcher
So, unless there's a convincing argument that Stroman is THAT much better (he was #7), the Sox signed the best reasonably available starter. I'd love the naysayers to explain what else you'd like the front office to do in December.