I thought he looked fine defensively in the games he played against the Celtics this year but holy crap I can't believe he is collecting a $37.6M paycheck for his work.Tobias Harris looks a lot better defensively this year than he has in the past.
The only thing I’d add to this is being smart with double teams. He is susceptible to turnovers if you flash the double just as he is spinning away from the baseline back into the teeth of the D. It’s an art form to time it right without fouling or opening an easy pass for him but this is an area Smart/White/Brogdon can really help frustrate him as long as the bigs hold up.Horford is enough of a 3-point threat that Embiid has to respect him on the perimeter. This is Horford's series to swing in that regard, him and Grant. Time Lord can't get Embiid to leave the paint, so I expect to see TL every minute that Embiid sits. We might also see some Blake Griffin duty, just because (A) he can hit 3s, (B) he can bang Embiid around and tire him out a bit, and (C) Horford probably lacks the conditioning to play against Embiid for 35 mins a game at this point.
For all the dramatic moments Embiid can create, what makes him a game-winning player is his propensity to get to the line and then sinking FTs at an 86% clip, which is pretty atypical for an XL-sized Center. The key to Embiid defense is to not foul him. If he makes a few more baskets that's fine, but if he's getting and-1s or getting bailed out because you left your hand in there (or he hooked yours and fell down), that's what's going to lose us a game. Just because he's a big load doesn't mean he's trying to back his defender down every possession, he has great footwork and takes a lot of mid-range jumpers. We just need to make those mid-rangers awkward as possible without fouling.
Embiid only blocks 1.8 shots a game, a lot less than his first few years in the league (when he was so eager to go for the block that you could get him to bite on anything, and then lay it off for a dunk or layup). He won't stop a lot of our drives to the rim unless he's allowed to just camp out in the paint - which he does a lot - and when he does we've just got to hit the open perimeter guy (as Smart did wonderfully last night), or have a second cutter to lay it off to.
Watch highlights of our matchups this year and you'll see that the Jays - and others, but particularly the Jays - are unafraid to drive to the rim with Embiid there. Sometimes they take advantage of having Embiid screened out by another frontcourt player to clear a lane. Seeing how they do it should give you a feel for what kinds of plays we've got to seek (and avoid). You'll also see a bunch of situations on defense where we conspicuously avoid a vigorous challenge of Embiid in the paint, specifically to avoid giving him FTs.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU6Gz43e-4g
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5touDmy8pg
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G--rkLisHpY
We use a lot of Al / Grant 2-bigs lineups when Embiid is on the floor. Horford routinely makes Embiid pay for cheating off of him. I expect to see plenty of that. Not so much Luke Kornet, who much as I love him just gets absolutely abused by Embiid.
You mean the same 538 that said BOS had an 80%+ chance of beating GS in the Finals last year?538 has Celtics with a 33% chance of winning it all now, and 76ers with a 20% chance. So that's a better-than-50-50 chance we're watching one of this year's NBA champs in this next series (assuming you buy into 538's probabilities)?
I’m still basking in the Pats’ 2019 538 title.You mean the same 538 that said BOS had an 80%+ chance of beating GS in the Finals last year?
Upsets happenYou mean the same 538 that said BOS had an 80%+ chance of beating GS in the Finals last year?
As my statistics teacher explained to me recently, 20% is not zero.You mean the same 538 that said BOS had an 80%+ chance of beating GS in the Finals last year?
That’s not good enough.Upsets happen
I will never understand how people can blame this on fatigue. The game prior we crushed them by double digits then only had 3 games over 8 days along with the adrenaline of being 2 games from a Title.That’s not good enough.
That’s how you saw the Finals? You saw a better team lose to plucky underdogs? I saw a hobbled and exhausted C’s team that was just done. Those were two variables that literally were not part of 538’s calculations and were discussed in pretty good detail here as flaws in the system.
PR quotes, really?Tatum: “That was part of something I wanted to change from my experience in the Finals and my level of fatigue.”
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/knicks-heat-set-to-renew-rivalry-in-the-playoffs-that-once-featured-brawls-and-suspensions-in-the-1990s/
Ime Udoka used the word “fatigue” seven times in his press conference after losing Game 5. Six times in response to questions not directly on the topic.
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/06/16/celtics-showing-fatigue-late-in-nba-finals/
“I’m sure that’s part of it. Not only mental but physical as well, with Rob playing through some of the things he was, being in and out in previous series. It probably had a toll on Al where we had to overextend him at times. Jayson and Jaylen grinding us out, Marcus as well, all those guys had some bumps and bruises at some point. Having to fight those two hard-fought seven-game series.”
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/did-fatigue-contribute-celtics-demise-nba-finals
As it turns out, pulling off an incredible midseason turnaround saps a team of significant energy. Though the Celtics had other reasons for dropping the NBA Finals to the Warriors in six games, Stevens believes fatigue factored into his team’s downfall. As he enters his second offseason as Boston’s president of basketball operations, one of his goals will be to alleviate some of the burden on the team’s best players, including Jayson Tatum. Stevens wants to make sure the Celtics are built to limit the wear and tear on their main pieces.
https://theathletic.com/3376949/2022/06/22/celtics-nba-finals-brad-stevens/
“I was just exhausted,” [Tatum] says. “Mentally, physically.”
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/35307668/jayson-tatum-six-months-nba-finals-loss-know-takes-now
If the Celtics beat Atlanta in Game 5, Game 1 against Philly would have been tonight.Sorry, the what now?
Might have had at least two games without Embiid. C'est la vie.If the Celtics beat Atlanta in Game 5, Game 1 against Philly would have been tonight.
Oh, he's still upset about Game 5 from back on Tuesday. Ok.If the Celtics beat Atlanta in Game 5, Game 1 against Philly would have been tonight.
Maybe I'm not understanding, but the extra game absolutely helped Philly and did nothing good for Boston (at least regarding injuries and rest). If the Celtics had closed out Atlanta in 5, game 1 would be today and the Celtics would've had 3 full days of rest. Now game 1 is Monday, which means Boston still gets a full 3 days of rest, but had to play an additional game. All those nagging injuries for the Celtics didn't get better because they kept playing. Meanwhile Embiid (and Harden) got another 2 full days of rest, and for Embiid he'll have a full 10 days off between games. The extra game is bad to neutral for Boston, and neutral to good for Philly. Maybe there's value in getting into a competitive playoff series before you face a truly difficult opponent, otherwise there's no benefit to having to play game 6.Oh, he's still upset about Game 5 from back on Tuesday. Ok.
Yeah 2 more days helps Jaylen's finger, it helps Time Lord's knees, Al's back... it's not all one-sided for Embiid. Maybe the only thing a few extra days can't help with is Celtics fans' anger management issues.
I'm not a mathematician or anything, but isn't Tuesday -> Sat and Thursday -> Monday the same amount of rest, what with the wear-and-tear of another game to boot?Oh, he's still upset about Game 5 from back on Tuesday. Ok.
Yeah 2 more days helps Jaylen's finger, it helps Time Lord's knees, Al's back... it's not all one-sided for Embiid. Maybe the only thing a few extra days can't help with is Celtics fans' anger management issues.
Philly gets to use the “rusty” excuse only for Game 1. Game 2 is going to be interesting.People can certainly discuss the cost of the game five lost to the Hawks but the Celtics are here - they lost the game and Philadelphia might benefit. Embiid and the 76ers got more rest and perhaps that will be the delta in the series. Its hard to see how we can reverse that loss though and maybe its time to discuss how they can beat the 6ers even if they are more healthy than they were yesterday or two days ago.
We've probably seen Embiid enough over the years to know when the going gets tough Joel will be doubled over, hyperventilating, grabbing for his leg while the Celtics run down the court.That Atl blown lead is brutal, but he might be fucked anyway:
View: https://twitter.com/timbontemps/status/1652353450280202248?s=42&t=-Ai-mpXJJ05V-SE-SPRBGA
Cardio goes pretty rapidly, and I would take the under on the amount of cardio Embiid has done since getting hurt.We've probably seen Embiid enough over the years to know when the going gets tough Joel will be doubled over, hyperventilating, grabbing for his leg while the Celtics run down the court.
Although he hasn't done much against the C's this year Tyrese Maxey still scares me in an Andrew Toney-type way
It's impossible to quantify, but there's absolutely value in bouncing back from an awful loss and closing out a series on the road against a fired-up opponent with nothing to lose. The mental (and physical) toughness that feat required should help the C's when adversity arises again this offseason, as it inevitably will.Maybe I'm not understanding, but the extra game absolutely helped Philly and did nothing good for Boston (at least regarding injuries and rest). If the Celtics had closed out Atlanta in 5, game 1 would be today and the Celtics would've had 3 full days of rest. Now game 1 is Monday, which means Boston still gets a full 3 days of rest, but had to play an additional game. All those nagging injuries for the Celtics didn't get better because they kept playing. Meanwhile Embiid (and Harden) got another 2 full days of rest, and for Embiid he'll have a full 10 days off between games. The extra game is bad to neutral for Boston, and neutral to good for Philly. Maybe there's value in getting into a competitive playoff series before you face a truly difficult opponent, otherwise there's no benefit to having to play game 6.
But game 2 would have been the same as it is. If Embiid misses game 1, he would also have missed game 1 in the reality where the Celts beat the Hawks in 5, and have been exactly as rested for game 2.If the Celtics beat Atlanta in Game 5, Game 1 against Philly would have been tonight.
It’s a weird lie for the MVP candidate, coach and president to coordinate starting the day after the game and running a full year later.PR quotes, really?
Funny how nobody was “exhausted” in G3 yet were gassed the following week with 2 days off between games. Hmmmm. Maybe the extra rest tired them out.
Is mental fatigue not a thing? If so, wouldn't that favor experience versus youth?PR quotes, really?
Funny how nobody was “exhausted” in G3 yet were gassed the following week with 2 days off between games. Hmmmm. Maybe the extra rest tired them out.
View: https://youtu.be/oz_dKM7dnVIFor curiosity sake alone, I’d pay a lot of money to see Embiid’s MRI. A very atypical injury. Is there a video of the play it happened on?
Great, thanks.
That's the glass half full view, and it's certainly valid. The glass half empty view would be that the bad habits we saw on and off last year in the playoffs and during the regular season are still an issue, one that could ultimately doom this team. Either could be true, or neither, or both.It's impossible to quantify, but there's absolutely value in bouncing back from an awful loss and closing out a series on the road against a fired-up opponent with nothing to lose. The mental (and physical) toughness that feat required should help the C's when adversity arises again this offseason, as it inevitably will.
Very, very interesting.Great, thanks.
I honestly don’t see the isolated LCL injury. That requires your knee to bend out (varus), a pretty uncommon way to hurt your knee.
In my complete armchair opinion….He’s either got a bunch of things going on with his knee behind LCL or the injury isn’t that bad.
It’s almost always more complicated than they say in the media. So in the end, who knows.Very, very interesting.
The latest reporting from The Athletic is that he has more going on than just the LCL sprain (which dovetails with what you’re saying).
However, I don’t think anyone should discount how much Doc loves to give himself excuses for his teams not living up to their talent
Would you say it is generally worse, better or just total misinformation?It’s almost always more complicated than they say in the media. So in the end, who knows.
I see a lot of the LA pro and college athletes (and never discuss here of course), but what people think is going on is often not what is actually going on.
His leg gets trapped between the fallen Brooklyn player's legs and his leg does sort of bend oddly. It happens at around 2 seconds into the video.I honestly don’t see the isolated LCL injury. That requires your knee to bend out (varus), a pretty uncommon way to hurt your knee.
It's generally incomplete.Would you say it is generally worse, better or just total misinformation?
I see that, but still not sure I really see a typical LCL mechanism.His leg gets trapped between the fallen Brooklyn player's legs and his leg does sort of bend oddly. It happens at around 2 seconds into the video.
Could be.So do you think there is “collateral” damage to the LCL injury? Cause pure LCL injuries seem to be relatively uncommon. PLC injury perhaps?