Yup. I did Bucks under too. Love these Sunday early games.Nice hit on the Wiz under!
Yup. I did Bucks under too. Love these Sunday early games.Nice hit on the Wiz under!
Ty. When the market went from 226 to 223.5 but the 1H only moved from 110.5 to 110 I snagged some 1H Under as well. These secondary markets are a place to keep in your holster.Nice hit on the Wiz under!
I hit on the bucks/suns under and lakers/mavs under along with overs on ayton and lopez rebounds. Didn’t play the wizards under until you mentioned it. Great day, thanks!Ty. When the market went from 226 to 223.5 but the 1H only moved from 110.5 to 110 I snagged some 1H Under as well. These secondary markets are a place to keep in your holster.
Don’t thank me yet lol.Was able to get Smart’s P+R+A at 21.5. Thank you, HRB, for your insight.
4-0 to the Under tonight with none remotely close even with the Hornets 41-pt 1Q. Market went against me in Magic/Pels closing at 229.5 but they only fell 35 pts short.6-3 overall to the Under tonight. Books are still opening numbers like it’s a month ago so going to step in as long as they do. Played two overnights that I expect to get hit in the morning…..
* Under 237 Pistons/Hornets
* Under 225.5 Magic/Pelicans
Good stuff! I’m sitting in a poker game right now and I want to go into detail on some of this either late tonight or tomorrow. I’ll attack the question on middles right now and this is interesting how I approach some of this.Can we talk about risk sizing for a bit? I’d say in finance people are obsessed about ideas but talk much less about position sizing, which is arguably even more important when it is dynamic vs consistent regardless of risk/reward in the bet.
What is the difference to you in units on a standard play vs a “getting in good” spot? How do you think about unit sizing if you intend to take the other side in-game to play a middle? If you are taking the other side is it fully boxed or half size? How do you think about sizing regular season vs post season?
many more questions, but I think/expect many will find this helpful. Happy to share my own as well.
I added U229 Magic/BucksPlayed 4 Unders so far today. May be more coming.
U219.5 Cavs/Celtics
U222 Pistons/Bulls
U229.5 Suns/Hornets
U233 Blazers/Pelicans
That’s what I get for not being fully focused. I’ll respond later but I NEVER view a 2H or live bet as a hedge but rather independently of any pregame action. Sizing would also have nothing to do with pregame play/size.Ok HRB, you’re 0-1 on responses. The topic is risk sizing and you responded without acknowledging your sizing.
Arguably in your example you may have more conviction in the halftime number AND it’s a hedge to your original risk AND you have a possibility of middling by 5-6 points, does that change your sizing at all? Or is it 1x1 based on what your bet pregame, or adjusted to factor in the vig? Would you look to do part of it and follow on if the 3 pt shooting kept up in the first 5 min of the 3rd quarter? Etc.
Sorry to belabor the point, this is a huge theme for me at work, yet at the same time I see tourist gamblers fire in every bet without even thinking about sizing their bets correctly. Curious how someone more familiar with sports betting may have tweaked their process over the years.
Played 4 Unders so far today. May be more coming.
U219.5 Cavs/Celtics
U222 Pistons/Bulls
U229.5 Suns/Hornets
U233 Blazers/Pelicans
My man Darius Garland, who I have supported since before draft night, doin me wrong tonight. His final minute 3-pt barrage was the difference between 3-2 and 2-3.I added U229 Magic/Bucks
The short answer would be to win 1-4 units with exceptions to exceed that on rare occasion. I would classify 1-unit as a standard play by definition for my own purpose. You’ll see touts commonly use 1.5u or more as a base which is only a way to pump up your “UNITZ!” to sell a product. They do this for no other reason than it is an effective tool for their objective (MMA can be especially "sold", as touts post their breakdown videos while manipulating stats to fit their narrative as this is so easy to do in this sport due to there being many levels and stylistic matchups). I've also seen some base their unit size off amount risked compared to amount to win which comes into effect more so with money line sports such as MLB, NHL, MMA, Tennis, etc. Personally, I base mine off amount to win to remain consistent in each sport that also uses a nickel or dime line. This becomes tricky for me most commonly in MMA, which is my highest volume sport per play (units) when I will often fine mispriced lines that show value but is also a heavy favorite. The word "value' is also often misunderstood as most assume this means "underdog" which is not necessarily true. If I identify a -210 wager that should be priced at -340 then i have just found great value......whereas an underdog at +180 that I have priced at +240 is not good value. So I have to be careful on not being overexposed while recognizing that if I have great value on a play I don't want to be underexposed either so yeah, money line sports are a delicate balance with an added sense of awareness needed. Ok, back to Units.....Can we talk about risk sizing for a bit? I’d say in finance people are obsessed about ideas but talk much less about position sizing, which is arguably even more important when it is dynamic vs consistent regardless of risk/reward in the bet.
What is the difference to you in units on a standard play vs a “getting in good” spot? How do you think about unit sizing if you intend to take the other side in-game to play a middle? If you are taking the other side is it fully boxed or half size? How do you think about sizing regular season vs post season?
many more questions, but I think/expect many will find this helpful. Happy to share my own as well.
Thank you for this. Amazing call. I tailed with 1u first quarter, 2u first half, and then did .25 units laddering Dal -6 through -12 for 3 units with the goal of in-game hedging out that risk. Yet… 76ers aren’t playing D. They look tired. Might just let it ride with Dallas up 15…. If it stays around here with 7-8min left I’ll start going the other way.Like Dallas a lot tonight so attacked a couple different ways. If game is close I don’t trust them to close out properly so played….
* Dallas 1H -1.5
Then a couple sprinkles on winning margin with Dallas by 20+ (+600) and a pizza strip on Dallas by 17-20 (+1100) as this could be a runaway with the Sixers off a Miami game last night…..is Harden still there?
So bad how these teams foul down 12 with a minute left now. I’m old enough to remember when teams actually acknowledged a loss vs stat padding… oh well.I took Wizards +2, under 222.5 in the game, and did a little of a parlay of the two.
That was brutal. I just looked at the box score. They kept fouling but once Dallas got possession at :33 that’s when both teams stop and dribble the clock out. Crazy that Dallas went in and scored. Sorry man.So bad how these teams foul down 12 with a minute left now. I’m old enough to remember when teams actually acknowledged a loss vs stat padding… oh well.
Yup def part of my handicap. I’m guessing them flew back on Tues night but if they remained in LA that probably isn’t a great way to prepare for a decimated Laker team. I lean Lakers as my next potential play after Nets too.Scheduling seems odd with T-Wolves at Clippers on Tuesday, off Wednesday and Thursday and at Lakers on Friday. 5 nights in a row in LA counting the off day on Monday. Hope it translates to a below average shooting night.
Did I mention all the backdoor opportunities?Ideal Celtics fade in a flat sandwich spot coming off Cavs win with Knicks payback in front of them. Nets coming off blowout loss should come out focused. Easy play to make.
Looks like you had a good night here. Very nice! I got more Lakers Under late 1Q at 237 which was nice. Both teams lit it up early which wasn’t expected to be sustainable. I tailed a buddy on a CBB 1H Under that was an easy win and an MMA PFL dog winner for one sweep of a night!I’m on several unders: 2units each on OKC, Cha, Atl, GSW, LAL games.
Ended up 2 units yesterday which feels disappointing given what could have been, but it’s a win so I’ll take it.
I lean all these side. I did play one…..3units under Toronto/wash 222
2units under Atl/Mia 225
1 unit Hou +1
1 unit Min +5.5
Man, those kill meWelp Raptors/Wiz we’re on pace to miss the under by 12 points but instead went to OT and over hits.
onto the next one
BrutalWelp Raptors/Wiz we’re on pace to miss the under by 12 points but instead went to OT and over hits.
onto the next one
Not so good so far…Two noon games today, one in Dallas, one in LA….
Mavs not going to shoot 50% from 3 all game… hopefully. Expecting the pace to slow in the 2nd half as well but we’ll see.Not so good so far…
Pace was perfect in the 1H….sadly, the 3-pt shotmaking was close to that as well. Every star came out with a purpose today. Next.Mavs not going to shoot 50% from 3 all game… hopefully. Expecting the pace to slow in the 2nd half as well but we’ll see.