The real question is whether you care about the 6 other free agents we'll have to moderately overpay to be competitive for a year or two before those free agents decline. Because we might have gutted the farm in the process.
As I said, it all depends on the deal. But from what I'm hearing, Soto's cost will be prohibitive. In a real-world sense.
I hear this argument, but I don't quite buy that we'd have to supplement the team with half a dozen market-rate free agents to stay competitive. Or if we do, it would look any different from what we already do (Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Strahm, Diekman, Sawamura). Two of the three untouchable hitting prospects were acquired through the Sox typical draft slot, the late first round. Our two best pitching prospects (Bello, Gonzalez) were through IFAs. I don't see why Bloom couldn't restock the farm the same way he has the last two years.
Here's a hypothetical path:
- Trade JDM and Vaz to the Mets. Maybe you get Vientos and Dominic Smith, maybe you get David Peterson and Smith. Either is considered by BTV as a mild overpay by the Mets, so maybe we throw someone of modest value.
- Trade Verdugo (16.2 BTV) somewhere for commensurate value. It seems plausible that the Braves might do it given their outfield situation, and I'd ask for SS prospect Vaughn Grissom, Mike Soroka and Eddie Rosario (1/$9M in 2023). That trade is considered by BTV as an overpay by the Sox.
- Trade Eovaldi and Schreiber to the Phillies for Logan O'Hoppe and Scott Kingery ($7.25 AAV through '24). That deal is considered by BTV a mild overpay for the Sox.
- Acquire Soto and Corbin, offering the Nats one of Casas and Mayer and four of Grissom, O’Hoppe, Houck, Bello, Yorke, Rafaela and Duran (and Vientos, if you get him in the Mets deal).
Will all that happen in the next 27 hours? Almost certainly no. It's very complex! The broader point is to maximize returns from the JDM, Vazquez and Eovaldi deals by taking on bad contracts, and then flipping those returns in a Soto deal while absorbing Corbin's contract.
For '23, re-sign Bogaerts (6/$150), Eovaldi (2/$30) and Kiké Hernandez (1/$8) to play CF. Sign Narvaez (2/$10) to split catcher duties with one of our prospects and McCutchen (1/$10) to DH. Use Corbin as the world's most expensive swingman. The 2023 team would be pricey -- roughly $275-280 million, but we wouldn't have any departing free agents we'd offer QOs, so the hit would only be financial. Then about $40-50M comes off the books in 2024 (Barnes, Brasier, Diekman and the JBJ buyout -- and in this hypothetical Rosario*, Hernández* and McCutchen*) allowing us to reset under the $237M CBT threshold. Another $100M comes off the books (Sale and Pivetta, and in this hypothetical Eovaldi*, Corbin*, Narvaez*, Duvall*, Kingery*, Soroka*) in 2025.
The commitments in 2025 would be Soto, Devers, Bogaerts, Story and Whitlock, at roughly $115M. Right now, the Angels have $99M in 2025 payroll commitments; the Padres, Phillies and Yankees have around $88-92. The Dodgers have around $70 (but that'll increase when they sign Trea Turner and/or Ohtani). But we'd still have whichever of the above prospects didn't go in the Soto deal, plus Bleis.