Well, if we're going to say that 620 MLB plate appearances tells us that this is what he is, we have to look at the whole 620 plate appearances. So what do 620 MLB plate appearances tell us?
- He doesn't hit for high average (.232 career BA) or get on base tons (.297 OBP).
- He does hit for a lot of power (34 homers in 565 AB - or one HR every 16.6 AB).
- He's slightly above average in terms of OPS+ (103 for his career). - and remember, OPS+ factors in their home ballpark, the era in which they play, and the position they play
- He's streaky.
- First 92 PA: .959 ops+, one HR every 10.0 AB
- Next 292 PA: .651 ops+, one HR every 27.4 AB
- Next 161 PA: 1.059 ops+, one HR every 9.5 AB
- Next 75 PA: .449 ops+, one HR every 68.0 AB
So that's the Bobby Dalbec story over 620 PA. He's a slightly above average hitter by OPS+. Lots of power. Not much in the on-base department. Streaky. So he'll go terrible for a while, but then he'll get absolutely red hot for a while and carry the team.
Can a good team live with a player like that? Well...sure, if the other players are doing their jobs. But of course, that's not happening with the Sox right now. Look at the ops+ numbers for their starting nine (ten if we include Arroyo who is kind of a super sub):
163 - Bogaerts
157 - Martinez (but only 16 games played)
120 - Devers
86 - Verdugo
76 - Story
70 - Hernandez
55 - Vazquez
30 - Arroyo
29 - Dalbec
26 - Bradley
I mean...seven of the ten guys are at 86 or lower. Half of the top ten position players on the roster are at 70 or below. 30% of them are at 30 or below. These are unconscionably bad numbers. Only three guys are hitting, and one of them has missed 30% of their games so far (JD). And the offense looks a lot better thanks to the utterly meaningless grand slam yesterday in the 9th by JD. The only way that might NOT be meaningless is if it somehow sparks his bat and gets him rolling.
So yeah, Dalbec has been a problem so far this year, but if we're going to say that 620 PA gives us the true Bobby Dalbec story, we have to look at all 620 PA and not just say that the last 75 represent what he truly is, because that would be grossly unfair to him.
I'll take the over on Dalbec continuing to have an OPS+ of 29 this year. But if his career norms are who he is, I don't want my high payroll team to get sub .300 OBP from 1B. Fortunately, there is a solution waiting in the wings -- what we do with 1B in the interim is a marginal decision I'm not going to worry too much about.