Just got my season ticket instructions from the Athletics Department, so it must be time to fire up a new thread.
Let's not mince words: Last season sucked, even grading on a pandemic curve. An experienced team with post-season ambitions got absolutely rolled in our early non-conference challenges against Indiana and Alabama, never really straightening things out. There were *maddening* losses early in the Big East slate -- overcoming a huge second half deficit against Creighton, only to let up an easy game-winning layup; blowing a 7pt lead and 96% win probability with 1:13 remaining at Xavier. Ultimately, there was enough talent to scratch out a 9-10 conference record (never winning more than two in a row), but the Friars went out with a whimper in the Big East tournament, losing their first contest to lowly DePaul.
The after-action report is pretty simple: For the fifth time in six years, Providence was an awful shooting team. 9th in the Big East and 250th nationally in eFG%. Yes, they played tough D and had plenty of depth and athleticism. But if you can't shoot, you can't keep up with Nova, UConn and Creighton. Period. Full stop. It's fine to give Ed Cooley -- who I continue to think is a damn good coach -- the benefit of the doubt on some bad breaks. Starting PG Jared Bynum was hurt a good part of the season and, despite a strong first half, David Duke just wasn't able to carry the team like we all hoped. Neither Ed Croswell nor Brycen Goodine were impactful transfers to boot.
Turn the page. We say goodbye to Duke, who passed on his senior season to pursue the NBA, landing with the Brooklyn Nets as an undrafted free agent (actually seems like he has a fair shot of making the roster). Sophomores Jimmy Nichols and Greg Gantt -- both athletic, top-150 recruits -- depart as transfers. They just weren't able to put it together here, and neither has a jump shot. Perhaps more important is who's back: Big man Nate Watson returns for a 5th season, and should be formidable as an all-conference caliber center. Joining him in exercising an extra year of eligibility is stretch-4 Noah Horchler, who offers an intriguing inside-outside game that blossomed in the second half. Here is what the rest of the roster picture looks like:
Projected Starting 5: (1) Jared Bynum, JR; (2) AJ Reeves, SR; (3) Al Durham, GR; (4) Noah Horchler, GR; (5) Nate Watson, GR
Other Key Contributors: Justin Minaya, G/F (GR); Brycen Goodine, G (JR); Alyn Breed, G (SO); Ed Croswell, F/C (SR); Rafael Castro, F/C (FR)
Rounding Out the Roster: Legend Geeter, F (FR); Matteus Case, G (FR); Andrew Fonts, G (GR); Luke Fonts, G (FR); Kieran O'Haire, G (FR)
Key Questions
1. Can AJ Reeves Answer the Call? A top-40 recruit, AJ shot the lights out in his Freshman season before it was halted by a foot injury. There were mock drafts that summer suggesting he might head for the NBA after a bounce-back Sophomore season. That certainly didn't happen. He added some weight, lost his groove, and honestly hasn't been very good the last two years. Reportedly, he is leaner and motivated for his senior season; virtually the only path to an above average offensive team runs through AJ putting it together as a catch-and-shoot threat beyond the arc.
2. How Impactful Are These Transfers? Durham and Minaya reinforce the wing position from Indiana and South Carolina, respectively. The former should add some much-needed offense, while the latter is more of a Swiss Army knife-type, who will be guard multiple positions. They've both played meaningful minutes of major conference college basketball and will be mainstays of the rotation from Day 1.
3. What is the Ceiling of a Team Built Around an Old School Center? Nate Watson is a very efficient face-up center, there's no question. He might be unmatched in the Big East as an inside, physical presence. But he also gets badly exploited on the defensive end by teams like Nova and Creighton that really stretch the floor and shoot. Often it feels like we're damned with Nate on the floor, but even more damned without. Is there another wrinkle in his game, or is this it?
4. Are We Deeper on the Wing Than We Realize? Alyn Breed was an overlooked recruit, but played surprisingly well as a true Freshman -- often out of position, covering for an injured Bynum at PG. Goodine seemingly spent most of the season in Cooley's doghouse, parked on the bench, but showed flashes down the stretch. If both can build on the flashes we saw, this should be a quality perimeter rotation.
5. Can We Find 10mpg of Post Minutes While Nate Rests? It probably needs to be Horchler. Castro is a top-150 recruit, so maybe he can plug in as a true Freshman. Or maybe Croswell has another level, though I fear he is just physically out-matched.
The Outlook
It will be easier to set expectations after Ken Pomeroy publishes his pre-season ratings and we see how the coaches vote at Big East media day next week. But early consensus pegs the Friars in the middle of the conference, potentially a fringe tournament team if things break right. And by "break right," I mean find shooting -- that's really all it comes down to.
Let's not mince words: Last season sucked, even grading on a pandemic curve. An experienced team with post-season ambitions got absolutely rolled in our early non-conference challenges against Indiana and Alabama, never really straightening things out. There were *maddening* losses early in the Big East slate -- overcoming a huge second half deficit against Creighton, only to let up an easy game-winning layup; blowing a 7pt lead and 96% win probability with 1:13 remaining at Xavier. Ultimately, there was enough talent to scratch out a 9-10 conference record (never winning more than two in a row), but the Friars went out with a whimper in the Big East tournament, losing their first contest to lowly DePaul.
The after-action report is pretty simple: For the fifth time in six years, Providence was an awful shooting team. 9th in the Big East and 250th nationally in eFG%. Yes, they played tough D and had plenty of depth and athleticism. But if you can't shoot, you can't keep up with Nova, UConn and Creighton. Period. Full stop. It's fine to give Ed Cooley -- who I continue to think is a damn good coach -- the benefit of the doubt on some bad breaks. Starting PG Jared Bynum was hurt a good part of the season and, despite a strong first half, David Duke just wasn't able to carry the team like we all hoped. Neither Ed Croswell nor Brycen Goodine were impactful transfers to boot.
Turn the page. We say goodbye to Duke, who passed on his senior season to pursue the NBA, landing with the Brooklyn Nets as an undrafted free agent (actually seems like he has a fair shot of making the roster). Sophomores Jimmy Nichols and Greg Gantt -- both athletic, top-150 recruits -- depart as transfers. They just weren't able to put it together here, and neither has a jump shot. Perhaps more important is who's back: Big man Nate Watson returns for a 5th season, and should be formidable as an all-conference caliber center. Joining him in exercising an extra year of eligibility is stretch-4 Noah Horchler, who offers an intriguing inside-outside game that blossomed in the second half. Here is what the rest of the roster picture looks like:
Projected Starting 5: (1) Jared Bynum, JR; (2) AJ Reeves, SR; (3) Al Durham, GR; (4) Noah Horchler, GR; (5) Nate Watson, GR
Other Key Contributors: Justin Minaya, G/F (GR); Brycen Goodine, G (JR); Alyn Breed, G (SO); Ed Croswell, F/C (SR); Rafael Castro, F/C (FR)
Rounding Out the Roster: Legend Geeter, F (FR); Matteus Case, G (FR); Andrew Fonts, G (GR); Luke Fonts, G (FR); Kieran O'Haire, G (FR)
Key Questions
1. Can AJ Reeves Answer the Call? A top-40 recruit, AJ shot the lights out in his Freshman season before it was halted by a foot injury. There were mock drafts that summer suggesting he might head for the NBA after a bounce-back Sophomore season. That certainly didn't happen. He added some weight, lost his groove, and honestly hasn't been very good the last two years. Reportedly, he is leaner and motivated for his senior season; virtually the only path to an above average offensive team runs through AJ putting it together as a catch-and-shoot threat beyond the arc.
2. How Impactful Are These Transfers? Durham and Minaya reinforce the wing position from Indiana and South Carolina, respectively. The former should add some much-needed offense, while the latter is more of a Swiss Army knife-type, who will be guard multiple positions. They've both played meaningful minutes of major conference college basketball and will be mainstays of the rotation from Day 1.
3. What is the Ceiling of a Team Built Around an Old School Center? Nate Watson is a very efficient face-up center, there's no question. He might be unmatched in the Big East as an inside, physical presence. But he also gets badly exploited on the defensive end by teams like Nova and Creighton that really stretch the floor and shoot. Often it feels like we're damned with Nate on the floor, but even more damned without. Is there another wrinkle in his game, or is this it?
4. Are We Deeper on the Wing Than We Realize? Alyn Breed was an overlooked recruit, but played surprisingly well as a true Freshman -- often out of position, covering for an injured Bynum at PG. Goodine seemingly spent most of the season in Cooley's doghouse, parked on the bench, but showed flashes down the stretch. If both can build on the flashes we saw, this should be a quality perimeter rotation.
5. Can We Find 10mpg of Post Minutes While Nate Rests? It probably needs to be Horchler. Castro is a top-150 recruit, so maybe he can plug in as a true Freshman. Or maybe Croswell has another level, though I fear he is just physically out-matched.
The Outlook
It will be easier to set expectations after Ken Pomeroy publishes his pre-season ratings and we see how the coaches vote at Big East media day next week. But early consensus pegs the Friars in the middle of the conference, potentially a fringe tournament team if things break right. And by "break right," I mean find shooting -- that's really all it comes down to.
The 2022 recruiting class might be the most exciting aspect of the program right now. Currently ranked 43rd in the nation by 247 Sports, with a talented trio of commits that includes Winston-Salem prep teammates Christ Essandoko and Quante Berry, plus Long Island PG Jayden Pierre. And there are more irons in the fire, with plenty of scholarships opening up. Could be a real program reset.With the addition of these 2, this should be Cooley's first top 20 recruiting class in a few years!