Looks like there will be a lockout if a new deal isn't agreed to by the end of the month.
Silverman in the Glob looks at the situation:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/10/30/sports/answering-some-key-questions-mlbs-collective-bargaining-agreement-is-set-expire/
What the owners want:
What the players want:
In MLB, player's share of revenues dropped from 57% in 2015 to 54% in 2018.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2019/01/11/economic-data-shows-mlb-spent-less-on-player-salaries-compared-to-revenues-in-2018/?sh=15e5b19939d7
I have no idea how that has changed since the pandemic hit, but I doubt it's increased.
From what's in this article, I'd expect the luxury tax to remain where it is, or even drop. And the owners want even harsher penalties for exceeding it, to make sure that they can pocket more money. The players want a higher tax level, but they haven't been very successful in getting that in the past, and the owners already want to slash it from the $210 million it is now down to $180 million.
This doesn't seem good for the Red Sox. It makes hiring Bloom look even better, at least. But it sure looks like they will be forced to either keep payroll low, or pay even more punitive penalties that will hurt in the long term.
In The Athletic, Dreilich anticipates that there will be a lockout:
https://theathletic.com/2921054/2021/11/01/how-a-major-league-baseball-lockout-would-work-this-winter/
Silverman in the Glob looks at the situation:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/10/30/sports/answering-some-key-questions-mlbs-collective-bargaining-agreement-is-set-expire/
What the owners want:
The bolded would be a tough blow for fans of teams that spend money to try to win. And obviously a disaster for the players. So I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Clark agreed to it.The owners have proposed, according to The Athletic and New York Post, a lower CBT of $180 million with stiffer penalties plus a payroll floor of $100 million that also comes with penalties, automatic free agency when a player turns 29½ years old, and elimination of arbitration... plus expanded playoffs and an international draft.
What the players want:
No mention of actually wanting to tie the luxury tax to the game's revenues. NFL, NBA, and NHL salary caps are tied to revenues. Doesn't look like either side is looking at doing the same for baseball.They seek a reduction, likely two or three years, in the number of years it takes for a player to become a free agent. They want salary arbitration to begin after the second year, rather than the third. They want to close the loophole that allows teams to manipulate service time, a trick that essentially tacks an extra year of service before hitting free agency. They want to revise the draft rules that currently guarantee high picks for low-finishing teams.
They also want a higher competitive balance tax. In the last CBA, they were only able to negotiate an increase from $195 million in the first year to $210 million this year.
The players also want a universal DH. There’s more, but those are the main components.
In MLB, player's share of revenues dropped from 57% in 2015 to 54% in 2018.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2019/01/11/economic-data-shows-mlb-spent-less-on-player-salaries-compared-to-revenues-in-2018/?sh=15e5b19939d7
I have no idea how that has changed since the pandemic hit, but I doubt it's increased.
From what's in this article, I'd expect the luxury tax to remain where it is, or even drop. And the owners want even harsher penalties for exceeding it, to make sure that they can pocket more money. The players want a higher tax level, but they haven't been very successful in getting that in the past, and the owners already want to slash it from the $210 million it is now down to $180 million.
This doesn't seem good for the Red Sox. It makes hiring Bloom look even better, at least. But it sure looks like they will be forced to either keep payroll low, or pay even more punitive penalties that will hurt in the long term.
In The Athletic, Dreilich anticipates that there will be a lockout:
https://theathletic.com/2921054/2021/11/01/how-a-major-league-baseball-lockout-would-work-this-winter/
Owners see an advantage to locking out the players.If Major League Baseball and the Players Association have not agreed on a new collective bargaining agreement by midnight entering Dec. 2, it is very likely that the sport’s owners will lock out the players. If that happens, all of the typical offseason transactions, from free agency to the arbitration process to the Rule 5 draft, would likely be frozen until a new deal is reached. The sport’s annual mid-December winter meetings would likely be canceled — at least the portion of the meetings involving the major leagues. (There is a minor league component, as well.) Players would not be able to use club facilities, but spring training and the 2022 regular season itself would only become threatened if the lockout lasted long enough. Spring training starts in February, the regular season at the end of March.
The sides could still reach a new deal prior to the current one’s expiration at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. Proposals have been made on dozens of topics, and some have led to more progress than others. On Tuesday, prior to Game 1 of the World Series, commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Tony Clark expressed tepid optimism.
But on the core economics, the piece both sides are most concerned with, the gap is large. The league and union have made one such proposal each, and neither was well received by the other party. More discussions are to come as the deadline nears.
A lockout would create the sport’s ninth work stoppage since 1972, and its first since the 1994-95 strike — ending a streak of 26 years of labor peace.
One club executive said owners would “lose all their leverage” if they did not institute a lockout right away in December.
“Why would the players ever reach an agreement then?” the executive said.
Owners might also have interest in testing the players’ resolve, and might not mind shifting free agency to a later, more condensed window on the calendar, either. A scramble to sign players, say, two weeks before spring training — were the CBA to be agreed to then — could work to the owners’ benefit.