FWIW, latest on Watson from RapSheet
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Regarding Waddle, everything I saw after the draft suggested they had their eye on Waddle for multiple years, probably in part because they scouted Tua so heavily prior to Waddle’s draft. Not surprising at all that they had him as their WR1, but nice to get some level of confirmation from within the organization. Like you said, not sure where Pitts factored in there, but trading up after trading down suggested they didn’t want to miss Waddle or Pitts.Listening to Simmons’ podcast yesterday previewing the NFL season a bit with House and Warren Sharp….it was nice to hear Sharp totally bullish on Tua, especially considering he’s the only opinion of the three that mattered to me.
The most infuriating thing of the past month or so, other than this recent Watson stuff, has been hearing so much of the national media gush over the Patriots and the Dolphins becoming a “they may be okay” after thought.
Maybe this should actually worry me, but it’s rare I have such a strong conviction in something predictive - but that’s how I feel about Miami being better than New England (assuming each team relatively healthy) and then destroying NE in week 1. The fact that it’s Jones starting now only strengthens that conviction.
Somehow, Miami beating NE and Washington beating the Chargers is what I feel most certain of in Week 1.
edit* listening to the Ringer Fantasy podcast right now, little fins related tid bit, figure I’ll just throw in this post…
Peter Schrager just gave up that when he reported a source had Waddle as the #1 receiver, even above Chase heading into the draft, the source was actually Brian Flores.
Not sure where Pitts fits into the equation, but if there was still any doubt…Waddle was the receiver they wanted all along.
While the Pats are certainly going to have a formidable defense this year, I think missing Gilmore is a big blow. Just like losing Xavien Howard would be a big blow for Miami.I really hope I turn out right on the week 1 thing, because after typing that earlier, I thought about what could cause that to not be the case, and the scenario I come up with is…Bill B’s D making Tua look awful and Jones being efficient while the Pats run for 200+ yards…so basically about the most torturous way possible to begin the season.
Assuming you mean Jaylen Waddle. That is probably what they will try to do. Waddle is pretty, pretty, pretty good at beating man coverage. Not only that but they’ll be sending him in motion and stacking him to give him cleaner releases. It’ll be an interesting back and forth to watch, for sure.I imagine Tua will be getting it out on quick crossers to Devonta to run wild. I'm guessing/hoping the Patriots can try to combat that by - this is familiar, but risky with him - trying to beat the shit out of him at the line.
Oh duh. Yes. Sorry. I'm still reeling from my "Cam thoroughly outplayed Cam" catastrophe.Assuming you mean Jaylen Waddle. That is probably what they will try to do. Waddle is pretty, pretty, pretty good at beating man coverage. Not only that but they’ll be sending him in motion and stacking him to give him cleaner releases. It’ll be an interesting back and forth to watch, for sure.
Waddle is a guy that can unlock a lot other things in the offense. The easy, lazy comparison is Tyreek Hill and what he does for KC. Even if he isn’t getting the ball, he’s taking the safety off Kelce or lightening the box for the RBs. It might not happen in Week 1, but a few balls over the top and teams will have no choice but to start respecting the speed. Add Will Fuller into the mix after Week 1 and Miami is going to spread some defenses.
yeah, that's been a problem for the Dolphins. Rowe has been great in coverage against everyone but Kelce and Heller, but he is not good against the run. And they traded for Mckinney to be a run stuffer and then waived him, thinking that Roberts could handle that role. But...he's been banged up. the defense can be elite this year, especially with Holland and Needham improving and the Line improving, but they can be run onRowe in lieu of a true box player to man a TE? Would be cool to run the ball at that.
yeah, that's been a problem for the Dolphins. Rowe has been great in coverage against everyone but Kelce and Heller, but he is not good against the run. And they traded for Mckinney to be a run stuffer and then waived him, thinking that Roberts could handle that role. But...he's been banged up. the defense can be elite this year, especially with Holland and Needham improving and the Line improving, but they can be run on
Rowe is an elite (and that isn’t hyperbole) coverage safety. He has erased all but the very best TEs in the league from the game, and even in his “bad game” versus Waller last year, he was in good coverage but Waller is a freak of nature and beat him at the catch point several times. Asking any one human to cover Waller one on one is a big task. I would say Rowe covering Henry or Smith in man coverage is almost certainly what Miami will be asking him to do.Can Rowe really take out one of our TEs?
These are all very valid points and criticisms. What gives a lot of us hope is the previous 2 seasons, Miami has significantly outperformed expectations both years Flores has been the coach. Their end result has been greater than the underlying talent suggests. This is a sign of good coaching and we’re trusting Flores and co. to mask some of the obvious deficiencies. You can’t mask 5 bad offensive linemen, so we’re in agreement that some of those guys will need to step up.I’m not a homer. I predicted the Pats would go either be 6-10 or 7-9 last year and because of the draft I tend to follow most teams and actually enjoy rooting for many more than just the Pats. I open with that because I’m skeptical of the fins this year. The OL situation to me is easy bottom 10 and probably bottom 5 in the league. I think with that like and lack of a decent running back the offense is going to be one dimensional. Luckily the Fins have some good pass catchers which will help mitigate the roster problems elsewhere on O. I’m skeptical of Tua like I am skeptical of all young QBs. Most fail. The problem with trying to predict the Fins offense is because the OL and Tua are question marks and you all don’t have an RB the outcomes could wildly fluctuate. I could see the OL eventually settling down and being below average but not a dumpster fire but I could also see the line be a total dumpster fire.
Austin Jackson has had a bad camp and Davis is what he is at this point and it isn’t good. The interior is just a bunch of question marks. Could be good bad or anywhere between the two points.
If the OL is just below average and Tua takes a second year leap the offense could be top half of the league. But there is downside risk there. A lot of it.
Defensively I have some issues with the front 7 against the run. Specifically I think the ILBs are a weakness overall. I love the corners - what a fantastic group they have but I’m not sold on the safeties. Better to suck against the run than the pass and better to be weak at LB and safety and strong at corner and edge vs the other way around but still worth noting. Defensive performance fluctuates more than offense so don’t be surprised if they take a step back instead of forward this year.
I could see the Fins anywhere from winning the division if Buffalo regresses to missing the playoffs and not being competitive. Skeptical doesn’t mean I think they are going to be bad it’s just I’m not sure where this team will end up. I feel the same way about the Pats for other reasons. Where we probably agree is that Luckiestman’s team (Jets) will likely finish at the bottom of the barrel. Good luck Fins fans, very curious here to see how Tua and the OL do as I think how they go the season goes.
The bolded are my exact thoughts. I couldn't have said it any better.These are all very valid points and criticisms. What gives a lot of us hope is the previous 2 seasons, Miami has significantly outperformed expectations both years Flores has been the coach. Their end result has been greater than the underlying talent suggests. This is a sign of good coaching and we’re trusting Flores and co. to mask some of the obvious deficiencies. You can’t mask 5 bad offensive linemen, so we’re in agreement that some of those guys will need to step up.
Also, on Miami’s roster construction, if you’re in a division with Buffalo and in the same conference as the Chiefs, your defense should be built to stop the pass. Will Miami have issues stopping the run versus the Pats and Ravens? Probably. But finding a run stuffing LB on the waiver wire or in free agency is a lot easier than finding a good coverage safety or good CB2.
Honestly, Shaheen might be a bigger loss than Jackson. I assume if he misses the game Greg Little or Eichenberg get a chance. I would guess Little because Eichenberg had been dinged up the last few weeks.
So, isnt it also possible that the talent on the team exceeded expectations, and the Dolphins were simply playing to their talent level, not above it because of Flores?These are all very valid points and criticisms. What gives a lot of us hope is the previous 2 seasons, Miami has significantly outperformed expectations both years Flores has been the coach. Their end result has been greater than the underlying talent suggests. This is a sign of good coaching and we’re trusting Flores and co. to mask some of the obvious deficiencies. You can’t mask 5 bad offensive linemen, so we’re in agreement that some of those guys will need to step up.
Also, on Miami’s roster construction, if you’re in a division with Buffalo and in the same conference as the Chiefs, your defense should be built to stop the pass. Will Miami have issues stopping the run versus the Pats and Ravens? Probably. But finding a run stuffing LB on the waiver wire or in free agency is a lot easier than finding a good coverage safety or good CB2.
Pats are a 3 point favorite. Being devastated feels like a little bit of an overreaction. It is Game 1.Well, I haven’t changed my sentiment, I’m predicting Miami 27-13.
At this point, I’ll be pretty devastated if they lose the game. I get that the line is a weakness, but a weakness doesn’t have to be crippling if you are aware it’s a a weakness. I really believe that Miami is going to come out in an offense that has New England on their heels…like the WildCat game all over again. I really expect to see an rpo game, multiple motions and looks, receivers lining up everywhere and a creative short passing game to help offset what the line may lack.
So yeah…if they are just lining up and running Gaskins up the middle, relying on the Defense, instead of something like Waddle motioning into the backfield and then Grant running a Jet motion into some sort of screen…I’ll also be pretty bummed.
I really hope I’m right.
What we saw in the preseason gives me a ton of optimism that Godsey and Studesville know what they’re doing. I think you’re going to see a lot of what Tua did really well at Alabama.Well, I haven’t changed my sentiment, I’m predicting Miami 27-13.
At this point, I’ll be pretty devastated if they lose the game. I get that the line is a weakness, but a weakness doesn’t have to be crippling if you are aware it’s a a weakness. I really believe that Miami is going to come out in an offense that has New England on their heels…like the WildCat game all over again. I really expect to see an rpo game, multiple motions and looks, receivers lining up everywhere and a creative short passing game to help offset what the line may lack.
So yeah…if they are just lining up and running Gaskins up the middle, relying on the Defense, instead of something like Waddle motioning into the backfield and then Grant running a Jet motion into some sort of screen…I’ll also be pretty bummed.
I really hope I’m right.
This will be an interesting test of one of the core truths in the NFL. If your lines are bad nothing else matters.Well, I haven’t changed my sentiment, I’m predicting Miami 27-13.
At this point, I’ll be pretty devastated if they lose the game. I get that the line is a weakness, but a weakness doesn’t have to be crippling if you are aware it’s a a weakness. I really believe that Miami is going to come out in an offense that has New England on their heels…like the WildCat game all over again. I really expect to see an rpo game, multiple motions and looks, receivers lining up everywhere and a creative short passing game to help offset what the line may lack.
So yeah…if they are just lining up and running Gaskins up the middle, relying on the Defense, instead of something like Waddle motioning into the backfield and then Grant running a Jet motion into some sort of screen…I’ll also be pretty bummed.
I really hope I’m right.
Well, I haven’t changed my sentiment, I’m predicting Miami 27-13.
At this point, I’ll be pretty devastated if they lose the game. I get that the line is a weakness, but a weakness doesn’t have to be crippling if you are aware it’s a a weakness. I really believe that Miami is going to come out in an offense that has New England on their heels…like the WildCat game all over again. I really expect to see an rpo game, multiple motions and looks, receivers lining up everywhere and a creative short passing game to help offset what the line may lack.
So yeah…if they are just lining up and running Gaskins up the middle, relying on the Defense, instead of something like Waddle motioning into the backfield and then Grant running a Jet motion into some sort of screen…I’ll also be pretty bummed.
I really hope I’m right.
Logically, looking at Game 1 as the primary indicator for how successful your team will be in a given season is problematic; but, man, is it challenging to avoid this thinking as a fan. Especially with how long the off-season is nowadays. There's just so much discussion, analysis, and build-up leading into the first NFL Sunday.Pats are a 3 point favorite. Being devastated feels like a little bit of an overreaction. It is Game 1.
Yeah just limiting this to Pats-Dolphins, think back to 2014 when the Dolphins dominated the Pats in the 2nd half in the opener. The Pats went on to win it all. And then last year, the Pats mostly controlled the game in week 1, only to have their season go much worse the rest of the way while the Phins went 10-6 and won in New England in week 15. Week 1 is the most meaningless week in the NFL. Everyone is in a rush to judge teams, they overreact, etc. Even look at week 2 of 2019, Pats 43 at Miami 0. And then in week 17 Miami beat a 12-3 Pats team in New England.Logically, looking at Game 1 as the primary indicator for how successful your team will be in a given season is problematic; but, man, is it challenging to avoid this thinking as a fan. Especially with how long the off-season is nowadays. There's just so much discussion, analysis, and build-up leading into the first NFL Sunday.
All that said, I wouldn't be devastated with a Dolphins' loss today, but I would be very disappointed. I think that today is one of the more "winnable" of the first five games. I view the starting of Mac Jones as part of that. YES, I get New England's excitement for the kid … but when you boast one of the better defensive unit's in the league, you're expected to make a QB struggle in his very first pro game/start. It'll be interesting to see how much this game being in New England operates as a bit of a neutralizer.
Regardless of today's outcome, I want to see Tua play fast and confident, make quick/smart decisions, and connect on several attempts down the field. Lastly, when in the red zone, finish! In order words, there should be obvious improvement from last season, similar to the glimpses showcased during preseason.
Never forget 12/9/18.I want to pop in here before it becomes a shitshow,
Stop with the logic! It's hurting my head!Yeah just limiting this to Pats-Dolphins, think back to 2014 when the Dolphins dominated the Pats in the 2nd half in the opener. The Pats went on to win it all. And then last year, the Pats mostly controlled the game in week 1, only to have their season go much worse the rest of the way while the Phins went 10-6 and won in New England in week 15. Week 1 is the most meaningless week in the NFL. Everyone is in a rush to judge teams, they overreact, etc. Even look at week 2 of 2019, Pats 43 at Miami 0. And then in week 17 Miami beat a 12-3 Pats team in New England.
A-freakin'-men.I’m literally hoping for a competitive showing so that I don’t need to hear any Deshaun Watson chatter 24/7 and I don’t have to hear “Mac Jones is the best Alabama QB in the AFC East” for the next decade.
Thanks for popping in and being respectful, Mo! I always appreciate it when the majority of the Pats' fans on this site do so.I want to pop in here before it becomes a shitshow, which I think is likely with either outcome, to say that this thread is a great way for me to keep up with a division rival. Definitely some great curated insight and analysis. I know way more about the Dolphin's players, strengths and weaknesses than say the Bills.
I like Flores a lot, so it pains me just a little bit to root for horrific results for him.
I think I've actually written this in this thread already, but this feels like one of those rare (at least for Pats fans) games where both teams fanbases feel like their team should win, and one fanbase is going to be pretty disappointed in the result. But the good news is both teams can (and likely will) have decent or better seasons whatever the result of today is.Stop with the logic! It's hurting my head!
(Haha, seriously, though, thank you for the great examples here to maintain proper perspective, regardless of today's outcome.)
It would only be devastating based on the expectations I’ve build in my own head and the conviction I have for it.Pats are a 3 point favorite. Being devastated feels like a little bit of an overreaction. It is Game 1.
They aren’t allowed to report specifics on practices such as formation groupings and lineups. He’s just saying they couldn’t say Eichenberg was going to start today or they risk repercussions from the team.What’s this part about?
“Fins writers are limited in how we are allowed to report this so team doesn't extradite us to Newfoundland.”
Understatement. Take away the first run of the game and the Dolphins absolutely dominated the Pat's running game (just 3.1 yards per carry and two fumbles).Dub.
Offense at times looked very promising. There were protection issues, but NE has a legitimately very good defensive front. Waddle is going to be very good. Tua with the WTF moment on that spinning INT, but otherwise looked very good. Also DeVante Parker was eating on those RPO slants. He’s too big and fast to box out when the ball is coming out in one second flat.
Defense were on their heels at times but absolutely put the clamps on in the red zone. Huge takeaway at the end by Howard when it looked like NE was moving in for the kill. Run defense got better as the game went on and Miami looks like they dodged a bullet with Raekwon Davis.
Mac Jones looks like his game was tailor made to fit in the NE system. He’s going to be good for them and showed a ton of toughness. He also had an early wtf moment, but largely looked like he knew where he wanted to go with the ball.
Regarding Tua’s INT, I do think he was trying to throw it away but was rolling to his right and got hammered and didn’t get enough on it. Either way, he should have probably eaten the sack and kicked the ball away with the lead in the road. He has a history of hero ball at Alabama and you want him to improvise when the play breaks down to an extent, but have to be better there.I had to watch this while working today, which wasn't ideal, but I have some initial thoughts:
1A) I was impressed with Mac Jones and the Patriots' offense. Mac looked comfortable, stood tall in the pocket, made great decisions, and delivered catchable passes. His skillset combined with New England's offensive line is going to be a problem for opposing teams.
1B) As a Miami fan, I'm incredibly jealous of the offensive line unit for the Patriots.
2) I thought that the "low tackle" flag call on Elandon Roberts was utter BS. To have that zebra call make a 4th down/punt situation into the red zone /eventual TD score was infuriating, at the time.
3) BB/McDaniels, like last year's opener, managed to grind out many time-consuming drives today. It's hard for an opponent's offense to get into rhythm when they're primarily spectators.
4) I'm not sure another HC/DC plays BB's bend-but-don't-break style of defense better than Flores. It's hard to put together such long drives without eventually being called for a penalty or committing a turnover. That arguably was the story today.
5) Tua showed glimpses today, but I am far from convinced after today's performance. That interception throw was inexcusable. Sure, perhaps if he connects with Wilson on that TD score, things would "feel" a little better, but I think that he clearly needs more time. He's a semi-rookie at this point. Based on this one game, Mac looks more comfortable in his team's offense, and that's a bit disappointing.
6) Final thoughts: A) Winning on the road is hard. B) A win's a win. Take it and run! C) I expect the offense to look a lot better in Miami a week from now.