2023 is only two years from now. I don’t think he can fix the farm that quickly — the gap between the smart teams and the dumb ones isn’t what it was when Theo Epstein rebuilt the farm in the early-mid 2000s, and Theo used the Sox’ financial resources to do that in ways that are no longer allowed.
I think it’s reasonable to expect CB to build a talent pipeline that is feeding the big club by 2025, but that leaves a couple seasons where the bad DD-era contracts will be gone but the Sox will still be pinched by the sheer number of holes that need to be filled through free agency. The good news is that if the pipeline is shaping up well by 2023, JWH will probably write big CBT checks for a couple years to allow the team to bridge the gap until the young talent arrives. Even so, however, resources will be finite, so CB needs to take great care in making financial commitments that extend into that time.
A lot depends on whether we're buyers or sellers at the deadline. Bloom took the farm a
long way in just a few trades, all of which yielded big value and we don't even know all the parts on the last one yet.
- Betts brought Verdugo to the big club, and Wong and Downs (the real centerpiece IMO). We gave up legitimate value, of course.
- The Hembree/Workman trade was an absolute heist, bringing in Pivetta for the big club and Seabold to the farm.
- The Benintendi trade brought in Franchy for the big club, and Winckowski and 2 PTBNLs for the farm.
- Moreland brought in Rosario and Potts.
So since Bloom took over, just via trade (which leaves out the weird draft and the apparent triumph taking Whitlock in Rule V), has added the our SoxProspects #2 (Downs), #9 (Seabold), #17 (Rosario), #19 (Potts), #25 (Wong), and #33 (Winckowski), and a pair of PTBNLs. All of these guys look to be potential big league contributors/role players. Downs looks like a starting middle infielder with power, Seabold looks like a #4/5 starter, Wong could be a backup catcher or super utility guy with potential for more, and Winckowski looks like SP depth pending the development of his off speed pitches, which sound like they have a ways to go — still, he throws 97 as a starter, which is a good starting point. Potts is a high ceiling/no floor guy due to his huge power and equally-huge strikeout rate, and Rosario has strong fourth OF potential bringing speed, defense and on-base skills as carrying tools. The point I am trying to make is that very few of these people are just organizational guys: they are all easy to see helping the major league team, even if you need to project Winckowski improving his changeup or Potts making a bit more contact to see that happen.
If the team contends this year, then awesome: that likely means that we've found some useful pieces for the future in Pivetta, Dalbec, Arroyo, and a couple of the bullpen guys. If the team is out of contention by mid-season, then we have a lot of potential inventory for the trade market in whichever of our veterans on short-term contracts are performing well: Barnes, Ottavino, Martínez, Hernández, González, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Renfroe, Rodriguez, perhaps even Vazquez.
You could easily imagine us dealing, say, JD, Eovaldi, Marwin, and Renfroe in various deals for a similar haul to that just mentioned, and calling up Downs, Duran, Houck and Chavis in the second half.