In scouting terms we talk about the athletic players being the high upside ones. Bender was the opposite of a high upside guy. He was a player with advanced skills for his age and people were hoping that he could learn to adapt to the speed of the NBA game. Brown was built for the speed of the NBA game, but his skills needed developing. So he was definitely the upside guy. As for Fultz v. Tatum, Tatum was the longer more athletic player. Fultz did look like he could be the next Harden, which is why he went #1.You think he should just always take higher ceiling guys?
If he did that, he probably has Fultz instead of Tatum.
And maybe Dragan Bender instead of Jaylen Brown.
I think taking a mix of risky/safe guys makes way more sense. And certainly don't think sometimes, not continually as you suggested, taking a safer guy outside of the top 10 of the first round is a fireable offense. Having rotation guys on the cheap are really valuable for playoff teams.
I generally tend to look at a mix, I’m not looking solely at athletic upside. This year that athletic upside guy is Jonathan Kuminga, he’s a monster. He does have Kawhi upside. But I have him fifth on my board. The guys I have in front of him (Cade Cunningham, the Jalens, and Scottie Barnes) are also great athletes, though. Just with a better skill foundation to build on.