If we can add Middleton, Hart and Devin Booker to the roster, our problems will be over.Josh Hart seems like the perfect candidate for the "plays well against us" offseason overpay for the Cs
If we can add Middleton, Hart and Devin Booker to the roster, our problems will be over.Josh Hart seems like the perfect candidate for the "plays well against us" offseason overpay for the Cs
Need a Bogdanovic and/or SaricIf we can add Middleton, Hart and Devin Booker to the roster, our problems will be over.
Terrence Ross first guy off the bench.Need a Bogdanovic and/or Saric
Ilyasova as 12th man who randomly steps on the floor for 15 minutes, drains several contested threes and grabs 8 offensive boards.Terrence Ross first guy off the bench.
I've said this before but having great wings is supposed to be a matchup problem for the other team - having guys who are too quick for big guys and too strong for little guys. However, the way the Cs have been playing, the wings are too slow to guard small guys and too small to guard big guys.Why are they so bad on defense this year? Is it purely an effort thing? I expected an offensive adjustment period with the loss of Hayward, but I didn't expect such a drop off on the other end as well.
Because the players aren't very good. And the drop off from Gordan Hayward to Semi and Grant is colossal on both sides of the court. Plus the team will look bad on any per 100 possessions metric. Part of their play (or maybe even a byproduct of their play) is to limit other teams possessions. They are 4th in the league in FGA against. They aren't very good anyway, they don't need help looking worse. The offense is also pretty mediocre/bad which compounds the problem. If the offense were slightly better or the defense were slightly better, they'd have a considerably better record. A 23-24 record is what you get with a +1.0 point differential.Why are they so bad on defense this year? Is it purely an effort thing? I expected an offensive adjustment period with the loss of Hayward, but I didn't expect such a drop off on the other end as well.
It looks like he hasn't been spending a lot of time on the Peloton while his wrist was healing. The comments from Brad about only being able to play a few minutes at a time were not very encouraing.Romeo Langford is also an x factor. Player development is weird and he's a pretty good athlete. He has a ton of defensive potential so it's possible he can make an impact on that end of the court. Gadget arms and all. If Fournier settles in and Romeo can provide 15-20 minutes of plus defense, with a little luck the team could make a run.
I think that has more to do with COVID. He's finally been cleared by the heart specialists and hasn't been able to do anything since he came down with it.It looks like he hasn't been spending a lot of time on the Peloton while his wrist was healing. The comments from Brad about only being able to play a few minutes at a time were not very encouraing.
I think this, and some of Cesar Crespo's points, is where you can see some hope for the Celtics this season. If they can stay healthy and have more consistent rotations, it is possible (based on their history) that their defensive communication will improve, and that Fournier potentially helping with the offensive burden can allow other players to expend more energy on the defensive end. I don't think we'll really have a clear idea of what this iteration of the Celtics looks like defensively for a few weeks, but it definitely is the difference between being eliminated in the first round and potentially going deeper into the playoffs.Setting aside the problems with D-rating, if you look at the C's best lineups this season using this stat, it seems to explain some of their issues and its pretty simple. They haven't had the right personnel available to put their best defensive lineups on the floor.
The top three defensive teams have had the following number of lineups play at least 10 games together this season:
Lakers: 8
76ers: 9
Jazz: 15
Boston: 2
Again, it doesn't explain everything nor does it excuse lapses in effort, bad coaching etc. However it tracks if you are attempting to be objective.
The offense is 12th in the NBA. I think the real issue with the offense vis a vis the defense is theyve been so top heavy that Tatum and Brown have sacrificed a lot of effort scoring at the expense of their defense. I also think Brown is struggling a lot with his knee on that end, or at least I hope so. His on ball defense has been dreadful. Combine that with Grant Williams becoming absolutely terrible and you get a decently sized regression.Because the players aren't very good. And the drop off from Gordan Hayward to Semi and Grant is colossal on both sides of the court. Plus the team will look bad on any per 100 possessions metric. Part of their play (or maybe even a byproduct of their play) is to limit other teams possessions. They are 4th in the league in FGA against. They aren't very good anyway, they don't need help looking worse. The offense is also pretty mediocre/bad which compounds the problem. If the offense were slightly better or the defense were slightly better, they'd have a considerably better record. A 23-24 record is what you get with a +1.0 point differential.
My hope is when Evan Fournier sets in, he improves the offense enough to make them better than a .500 team and give them a punchers chance in the playoffs. I don't see the defense carrying us this year.
Romeo Langford is also an x factor. Player development is weird and he's a pretty good athlete. He has a ton of defensive potential so it's possible he can make an impact on that end of the court. Gadget arms and all. If Fournier settles in and Romeo can provide 15-20 minutes of plus defense, with a little luck the team could make a run.
He looked bigger but some of it looked like muscle so I'll hold off until I see him play if it's something to worry about or not. He has the look of someone trying to bulk up but I'm going off that one video that was posted. It's also possible he just got soft. His mid section looks somewhat soft but his upper body looks more built. Maybe he's been hitting the weights but not doing cardio.It looks like he hasn't been spending a lot of time on the Peloton while his wrist was healing. The comments from Brad about only being able to play a few minutes at a time were not very encouraing.
12th on what metric? I'm being really really simplistic because I'm not a huge advanced metrics guy when it comes to the NBA, but they are 16th in points scored and 15th in points against. I shouldn't have said the O is bad, but I think mediocre describes the offense, the defense and the team. Maybe mediocre isn't the best word because a lot of people use the word to describe something bad rather than average or meh.The offense is 12th in the NBA. I think the real issue with the offense vis a vis the defense is theyve been so top heavy that Tatum and Brown have sacrificed a lot of effort scoring at the expense of their defense. I also think Brown is struggling a lot with his knee on that end, or at least I hope so. His on ball defense has been dreadful. Combine that with Grant Williams becoming absolutely terrible and you get a decently sized regression.
I saw this and immediately thought that it may be chalked up to offense - if the ball is going through the net, there are less opportunities for transition baskets. This is entirely wrong as they're actually shooting better as a team this year - well, slightly worse on 3s (34.4% vs. 34.5%) but marginally better on 2s (52.7% vs. 52.2%). They're also turning the ball over at almost exactly the same rate (13.9/g vs. 13.8/g).There was an article in the Athletic today that said that the Celtics transition defense (usually a strength in the Brad Stevens era) has been near the bottom of the league this season based on the statistics. I don't recall them offering up any particular driver behind the poor transition defense.
This is very true. It's especially true when some of these players are on 6000+ calorie a day diets.Having said that, He spent the last three weeks in the health and safety protocol, and I believe they are not allowed to do any conditioning until cleared by the staff, which seems to have just happened in the last couple of days. You can lose a lot of conditioning in three weeks. That may be why Brad is saying they'll start him off with short stints on the court.
Offensive rating or offensive efficiency — or points scored per 100 possessions — which is typically what people are referring to when ranking offenses (or defenses). Points scored and allowed *per game* can be misleading measures, since they ignore pace.12th on what metric?
but they play that pace on purpose. I get it though. I just think if a team averages 100 possessions a game and the C's are limiting them to 90... that's a deliberate thing that Per 100 wouldn't pick up on.Offensive rating or offensive efficiency — or points scored per 100 possessions — which is typically what people are referring to when ranking offenses (or defenses). Points scored and allowed *per game* can be misleading measures, since they ignore pace.
The Cs play a slower than average pace — i.e. fewer total possessions per game than average — which means their offense has been a bit better than you think and their defense has been a bit worse.
Yeah, and cardio is easy-come easy-go.This is very true. It's especially true when some of these players are on 6000+ calorie a day diets.
Sam ray not covered it, but to add some flavor there is a clear top tier of offenses that are all close with Utah, Brooklyn, and LAC and Denver. The second tier is fairly close to the first and includes New Orleans, Portland, and Milwaukee. The Celtics are in the third tier and are really just a few good games from 8th in the league in offense. This group has Boston, Dallas, Sac, Atlanta, and Phoenix. The dropoff after Boston is fairly large.12th on what metric? I'm being really really simplistic because I'm not a huge advanced metrics guy when it comes to the NBA, but they are 16th in points scored and 15th in points against. I shouldn't have said the O is bad, but I think mediocre describes the offense, the defense and the team. Maybe mediocre isn't the best word because a lot of people use the word to describe something bad rather than average or meh.
With Fournier, the hope is Tatum, Smart and Brown can sacrifice some of their offense for defense. If Langford can provide solid defense, that helps even more. It would also give the option to run a lineup of TL/Tatum/Brown/Smart/RL and then switch it up with TL/Tatum/Brown/Fournier/Kemba.
I'm pretty sure Fournier will settle in to a role where he's scoring 15-16 a game shooting mostly 3s. I think Langford could be anywhere from unplayable to a solid 20-25 minute rotation player. I just don't know.
There is a point here that efficiency and the number of possessions are not independent of one another and that is certainly true. It is not perfect but the cleanest way to compare offense and defense fairly is to correct for pace. It is better than looking at raw points per game.but they play that pace on purpose. I get it though. I just think if a team averages 100 possessions a game and the C's are limiting them to 90... that's a deliberate thing that Per 100 wouldn't pick up on.
I don't really know how to word my point.
Yeah, I just didn't know what metric he was using even though I should have. I use per 36 a lot, but that has even more flaws. I also love rate stats but those have the same flaws. Extrapolating results.There is a point here that efficiency and the number of possessions are not independent of one another and that is certainly true. It is not perfect but the cleanest way to compare offense and defense fairly is to correct for pace. It is better than looking at raw points per game.
Yea, I would be happy to agree on the offense being mediocre. I don't think its bad though, which was a characterization you gave. They definitely are underperforming given the top tier talent they have.Yeah, I just didn't know what metric he was using even though I should have. I use per 36 a lot, but that has even more flaws. I also love rate stats but those have the same flaws. Extrapolating results.
Regardless, by PPG they are 16th, by ORtg, they are 12th. Neither is great shakes.
The real problem with this team is that they just aren't that good at basketball. The team's top talent is fine but they are made to look worse because they have to carry bums like Semi and Grant Williams. We also haven't been fully healthy since the trades so who knows what the team will look like when everyone is in play. Brown and Fournier have yet to play together and TT has been sidelined forever. Semi doesn't matter if everyone else is healthy.
They are working hard for their points. My eyes tell me they score a lot fewer of the three pass "one more" hoops than they give up. so their opponent is often in pretty good position when they shoot.There was an article in the Athletic today that said that the Celtics transition defense (usually a strength in the Brad Stevens era) has been near the bottom of the league this season based on the statistics. I don't recall them offering up any particular driver behind the poor transition defense.
I'm one of the biggest Theis fans around, but if what we watched for the first 45 games this year was continuity and chemistry, we were fucked with or without him.They are working hard for their points. My eyes tell me they score a lot fewer of the three pass "one more" hoops than they give up. so their opponent is often in pretty good position when they shoot.
but [B]DeJesus Built My Hotrod[/B] echoes what JVG said in pregame last night that the Celtics have not had a consistent lineup. Jeff noted TL was just establishing himself as a starter, and was missing. I understand analysts cover for coaches, but he said this hurt Brad Steven's more than other coaches because his strength is team D, playing a s a unit and it is hard. For this reason he though trading Theis was a terrible move, because it just disrupted continuity and chemistry.
Offensively speaking:People make so many excuses for what amounts to the Celtics good players not making nearly the impact they need to, often through a lack of energy.
Something is clearly wrong with this team, and it goes beyond injuries and lineups.
We've had this discussion before and I agree (and I think most here agree). If one of JT and JB don't emerge as a top 10 player - and by that I mean getting theirs while making other players better - the Cs are in bad shape.So unless Tatum grows his team game, or Ainge injects talent - I don't see a whole lot improving for this team offensively.
2.5 paragraphs it took me, and you did it in one sentence. Thanks... lolWe've had this discussion before and I agree (and I think most here agree). If one of JT and JB don't emerge as a top 10 player - and by that I mean getting theirs while making other players better - the Cs are in bad shape.
Agree, the defense is the biggest issue.I think the explanations about the defense are pretty simple, and I think it's a combination of bad luck and effort. Tatum was an incredible defender until this year. He's had to play a lot of minutes despite recovering from COVID. I can't imagine how hard it's been for him to have to be the best player on offense and try to do anything but suck wind at the other end. I think this problem goes away by the end of the season and he's back to being a terror on that end.
Jaylen hasn't been great shakes either. In fact the number of times he's blown assignments or played pathetic one-one-one defense has been enraving. Jaylen has never been a great team defender, but he has played some great one-on-one defense in the past. I saw him trying a lot harder the last couple games. We'll see if it sticks.
Kemba has been awful. Floating around, losing his man, getting absolutely run over by mediocre guards. I don't see a fix there.
Smart has rarely been the transformative presence we're used to. He's been struggling to stay in front of quicker guards, which was always a weakness of his. I think he'll find another gear.
The simple fact is this team in years past was transformative defensively because they were so switchable and played with so much effort. We've seen more of that effort in the last couple nights.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them finally gel and turn into the sort of fun defensive-minded team we've seen in years past. There's precedent for those kinds of transformations. If Tatum and Smart go back to being plus-plus defenders, the sky is the limit for the defense.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see them crash and burn. If Smart smashes his hand on a mirror, if Tatum's lungs don't make a comeback, if Jaylen loses his self-confidence. You get the idea.
This is what I keep saying in game threads: Too often, the Jays don’t clearly help the team win. That’s it.People make so many excuses for what amounts to the Celtics good players not making nearly the impact they need to, often through a lack of energy.
Something is clearly wrong with this team, and it goes beyond injuries and lineups.
Many miscalculated the Jays ascension (myself included). Tatum isn't a top 10 player and Brown isn't on the cusp of being a top 10 player.This is what I keep saying in game threads: Too often, the Jays don’t clearly help the team win. That’s it.
I doubt .378 is his ceiling either but I'm sure he'll have plenty seasons around .378. I'm also not sure he's shooting .378 because of Covid. It's because of variance. AKA luck.Kind of miss the part of the season when the biggest complaint was Thompson and Theis being on the floor at the same time.
I know it's not a popular thing to say, but Tatum is a different player post-CoVid. It's easy to dismiss it as an "excuse", and I know he's got the best doctors looking after him. But CoVid affects different people in many different ways, even athletes (ask EdRod if you're skeptical). I doubt very much a 0.378 success rate on three point attempts is his ceiling.
This team needs a roster reset in the offseason. Running back the same team would be GM malpractice, no matter the justifications.
Tatum shot 0.403 on 469 attempts last season, and 0.438 this season before testing positive, and only 0.357 since returning. I realize the 95% confidence interval calculations over the relevant sample sizes does not allow us to reject the null hypothesis. But there is still a non-zero chance that CoVid has affected his shooting; the coincidence is not all that easy to ignore.I doubt .378 is his ceiling either but I'm sure he'll have plenty seasons around .378. I'm also not sure he's shooting .378 because of Covid. It's because of variance. AKA luck.
38/100 vs 40/100 is the difference between .378 and .400. 3 point percentage is not that different than batting average. A .330 hitter doesn't hit .330 every year.
Radical thought, but maybe Marcus Smart is the problem. Or even if he isn't the problem, the fastest way to change the culture of the C's is to move the leader of the pack.Rather than keep piling onto the PG conversation in the Brad thread:
Some roster reset is in need, but so long as the future is the Js (it better be) the bedrock should be getting a real 1 who can help them hit their ceilings by moving the ball and bringing value on D. Lowry for example, as a veteran voice would be ideal, but I’m open to Lonzo or several others.
Dumping Kemba $ is clearly required, so maybe not enough assets to get rid of him and still acquire a plus PG?
Boston will cook up plenty of blame pie for all, but Smart and Js and Timelord deserve a better team around them...even if they occasionally show emotion In suboptimal ways.
I get this reaction too, but I’m still of the opinion he’s a symptom not cause.Radical thought, but maybe Marcus Smart is the problem. Or even if he isn't the problem, the fastest way to change the culture of the C's is to move the leader of the pack.