The 2020 Red Sox had a horrible starting rotation. In 60 starts, they averaged 4.1 IP* and a 5.34 ERA. They conceded 49 HR, and had a K/BB ratio around 2. The team as a whole had an 85 ERA+. None of that is good.
There were some bright spots, however. The last few weeks of the season saw Eovaldi finish strong (returning from the IL, he posted a 0.64 ERA in 14 IP across three starts), a great debut from Tanner Houck (21 strikeouts in 17 IP, all against playoff teams!), a pair of promising outings from Nick Pivetta (13 SO in 10 IP), and at least presentable outings from Chris Mazza (a misleading 3.00 ERA across his last two tightrope act starts) and Martín Perez (whose September was four good starts and a shelling), whose option was not picked up but is rumored to be in discussions about a return.
That good news, along with positive reports about the health of Eduardo Rodriguez, after his scary bout of COVID-induced myocarditis, and Chris Sale, who is throwing again, offer us at least a tentative sense that there are the ingredients of a good starting rotation here.
But clearly more personnel will be needed. For much of last season, Perez was our best starter almost by default. He's not a bad pitcher, but a good rotation would be one where he was a fourth starter. But because it seems like a bunch of teams may be in rough financial shape and trimming payroll, there may be some pretty interesting pitchers available in post-non-tender free agency or via trade.
Here's how I think things should shake out.
Boston Rotation
Rodriguez
Eovaldi
FA1 (Quintana/Odorizzi/Morton/Minor type) ($10-15m AAV)
FA2 (Perez/McHugh/Leake/Walker type) ($4-8m AAV)
Pivetta
It looks to me like what we need are two FA SP anticipated to be more reliable than Pivetta. I'm rather less confident than usual that I know what players will cost this offseason, so those price ranges are estimates after eyeing the Fangraphs crowdsourced estimates. Who knows?
Injured List
Sale
Worcester Rotation
Houck
Mata
Seabold
Mazza (or mlFA)
Weber (or mlFA)
Something very exciting is that we again have actual prospects who are also big league SP depth. Guys like Mazza and Weber are of course fungible, and I would not be at all surprised to see them replaced with other comparable pitchers in the 7/8/9 depth slots.
Portland Rotation
Ward
Reyes
Raudes
Groome, maybe?
etc., etc.
What do you all think? Am I right about the shopping list here? Who would you target? Which trade candidates and non-tender possibilities are you interested in?