I don't like this pick, but yes. Thad Moss probably isn't even the best TE coming out of his own school.So him rather than Thad Moss? (and yes, I need to go back and re-read SMU's writeups)
When I look at a tight end projection I look for elite flashes. Keene was used as an FB, inline guy, and sometimes flexed out but that was rare. Like Lynn Bowden he would also take some QB duties. With Keene he had 3 bad habits as a blocker all of which are correctable and he does have perfect reps to counter them: 1) gets overextended (head and upper body get too far out in front of toes and defenders can toss him while he is off balance) 2) ducks his head into blocks, and 3) in space but also pops up inline he can be a lunger. I’ve seen worse. His good reps as a blocker are usually when he has a favorable angle but I’ve seen him drive DLs to the ground on goal line runs. He flashes v good blocking ability but he needs work on his technique.Some shades of Hernandez with how he was lined up / utilized
Hollister's much smaller - 14 pounds lighter, with arms an inch and a half shorter. Hollister's a pure move guy. Keene can do a lot more in the blocking game.I slept on it..... I still hate everything about this pick. Traded way too much, which alone would annoy me. But honestly, his athletic profile, and skillset seem entirely indistinguishable from Hollister who we traded away for a 7th. This just seems like an egregiously bad use of draft resources. Would he have fallen to 125? Maybe, maybe not. If he does great take him there and take someone at 129. If he doesn't, no real loss.
Yeah, I generally don't like the value of these TEs in these spots, but I do feel better about Keene based on the 4th. All these TEs going is pushing the players the Pats might have taken at 129 down to where 1 of them might even make it to 159.Given the run on TEs today, seems the Pats were ahead of the curve. They may or may not have picked the right ones, but they clearly knew when to strike.
I was a big Knox fan last year. I think it is a good comparison but Knox was used more as a receiver even if the Ole Miss offense didn't throw it his way enough. I think Keene plays with more intensity than Knox. I liked Knox as a blocker@SMU_Sox , I know we talked about Keene a bit in the draft forum a few times over the past few months. Don't you get a Dawson Knox vibe from him? Really underused in the passing game but the physical traits to be a weapon in the NFL. Their athletic profiles are similar. I was too low on Knox last year, which made me appreciate Keene more this tear when I studied him. He requires projection, but I liked the traits and profile a lot.
I think it's going to be (or at least the intention is that it's going to be) something between 21 and 12 personnel. Develin was an absolute hammer as a lead blocker, but not really a threat in the passing game. Aaron Hernandez was an outstanding receiving TE but only an adequate blocker. A guy like Keene or Vitale isn't going to be the point-of-attack blocker Develin was or the receiving weapon Hernandez was, but he can offer something in between. He can line up in multiple spots and impact the run game and pass game in a variety of ways. Keene even got handoffs out of the backfield in a pinch. If Asiasi can lock down the conventional TE role, the second guy can be a Swiss army knife, maybe not excelling at anything in particular but making an impact by doing a variety of things: lead blocking, doing normal in-line tight end stuff, chipping and releasing, tunneling behind the line from an H-back position, to catch a screen pass, the odd backfield alignment, etc.Hmm guess he [Vitale] is, I had only seen him in GB where he did a lot of lead blocking and pass pro, but looking him up, he has much better athleticism numbers than I would have thought from seeing him there. So yeah, looks like he's more of a versatile Fullback than a pure mauler like Develin.
Makes me think even more something I said in the other thread... that the offense is going to move back to a lot more 21 personnel (used it a ton in 2018, far far less last year) and maybe Vitale and Keene give it a bit more receiving threat and mismatch options.
One of the things teams pay for in the draft is scarcity: there aren't a lot of players Keene's size with his athletic profile, so if you want that skill set, you might have to spend a third even though the tape says fifth or whatever. Belichick talked about this in one of the Holley books with respect to Sebastian Vollmer, that he wasn't a second-round pick on tape but if you want a guy like that with crazy athleticism for being 6'8", you might have "overpay."This makes a ton of sense to me. I think we're getting to the point where you can get a good sense of what they want to do, and it looks like they want to have a bunch of h backs and TEs and FBs and big receivers help Stidham with an offense that combines the run and what's predominantly going to be a short passing game--and they likely saw only a small number of players who they were confident could contribute at hback, so they went and grabbed one they liked asap when the other guy they liked was drafted.
Nice post, you've explained this well - much better than I've been able to... and with good examples as well.(Again cross-posting)
One of the things teams pay for in the draft is scarcity: there aren't a lot of players Keene's size with his athletic profile, so if you want that skill set, you might have to spend a third even though the tape says fifth or whatever. Belichick talked about this in one of the Holley books with respect to Sebastian Vollmer, that he wasn't a second-round pick on tape but if you want a guy like that with crazy athleticism for being 6'8", you might have "overpay."
To take another example from this year's draft, I don't think many pundits had a second-round grade on A.J. Dillon, but if you're interested in that skill set - he ran a 4.53 40 at 247 pounds - there's no plan B if you don't get him, because there's no one else like that. And I think the nature of the Kipers etc. of the world is they talk to a bunch of teams who have all kinds of grades on him because some teams are interested in that skill set and some aren't, but he invariably gets drafted higher than expected because of the scarcity of the skill set and because the team that values him most really values him.
Agreed!Nice post, you've explained this well - much better than I've been able to... and with good examples as well.
I was a big Knox fan last year. I think it is a good comparison but Knox was used more as a receiver even if the Ole Miss offense didn't throw it his way enough. I think Keene plays with more intensity than Knox. I liked Knox as a blocker
I had some issues with the tradeup as well but they are usually good knowing/predicting what other teams are in on a guy and when they have to pull the trigger. Of the people I have talked to about this here I think we all wanted a mix of one of Kmet/Trautman/Asiasi with Keene. I can imagine them running a lot of 12 personnel in year 2. Lots of play action too. Bully-ball works if you have tight ends and WRs who can win 1:1 matchups and are good blockers. Imagine Harry, Keene, Asiasi, and fill in the blank all contributing in 2021. That's a lot of meat up front. They also picked up a 6th round guard who is a major people mover. Like Keene when Michigan wanted to run they ran it behind Onwenu.
3 of the guys they drafted have better tools than they are complete players right now or have unique hybrid kind of roles. Uche will likely play some ILB and OLB. He will blitz up the middle or even take some reps as an edge rusher. Or he drops into coverage. You never know what Uche is going to do. Dugger ideally will be able to play the star role, is athletic enough to play the money role, could handle split deep zone, and... look there isn't much you can't project him to do minus single high. Again this is a projection and a best case scenario after several years. Keene can handle all TE roles but will need time to get there. BB took 3 extremely athletic guys who need additional time to become solid contributors but is going to bank that they can develop them. All three guys are potential game changers if they hit.
I find these few statements, culled from two different super-knowledgable posters, to be a really interesting take on BB's supposedly random reaches. We've spoken at great lengths in the past about BB's ability to strategize against an oppenent's tendencies, to take away their strengths. Some of this likely comes from his ability to glean knowledge developed over the years through scouting and film work.(Again cross-posting)
One of the things teams pay for in the draft is scarcity: there aren't a lot of players Keene's size with his athletic profile, so if you want that skill set, you might have to spend a third even though the tape says fifth or whatever. Belichick talked about this in one of the Holley books with respect to Sebastian Vollmer, that he wasn't a second-round pick on tape but if you want a guy like that with crazy athleticism for being 6'8", you might have "overpay."
To take another example from this year's draft, I don't think many pundits had a second-round grade on A.J. Dillon, but if you're interested in that skill set - he ran a 4.53 40 at 247 pounds - there's no plan B if you don't get him, because there's no one else like that. And I think the nature of the Kipers etc. of the world is they talk to a bunch of teams who have all kinds of grades on him because some teams are interested in that skill set and some aren't, but he invariably gets drafted higher than expected because of the scarcity of the skill set and because the team that values him most really values him.
I think a lot goes into it. In this particular case, Scott Pioli has talked about the thought process re: Brady and suggested it was more about need. They thought Antwan Harris could fill a role on the 2000 team, while Brady would be no more than the fourth QB (which he was), so they took Harris first. I don't think they had any special insight he would still be available at 199; they were just willing to take the risk because they already had three quarterbacks on the roster. Once you get down that far in the draft, your intelligence about who teams like is much more suspect.if you like Tom Brady a lot but you also know that no one else values him higher than a 7th round pick, then taking him 199 is not a reflection of your value of him, it's a perfect use of resources to get him at the last possible moment.
One of the points Belichick makes in the Holley book is that you don't always know. Sometimes you judge it right and you did need to take Vollmer/whoever then. Sometimes you're wrong and you really could have had him with a later pick. You're dealing with uncertain information.On the flip side, if you view Sebastian Vollmer as a 3rd round talent, but you know that Team X might take him at pick #60, then you need to pick him at #58 to get him.
DMac is another guy that comes up in the Holley book. They zeroed in on him but thought most of the league saw him as a second round pick. So they traded back in the first round (maybe twice even?) and then they had another opportunity to trade back. The Jets were behind them and they were pretty sure the Jets would take a cornerback and they also thought it was more likely to be Kyle Wilson than DMac ... but they still decided it wasn't worth the risk and just stayed put and took McCourty. The Jets did take Wilson FWIW.It's like the old joke about being able to run faster than a bear, you don't need to be able to do that, you just need to be able to run faster than the slowest person in your party.
I think this might explain many of BB's "reaches." The fact that some -- Mankins, Vollmer, DMcC, -- work out, while others, too numerous to mention, may be more a simple result of the variances inherent in the draft and not a condemnation of the method.
What do you think Belichick thought when he viewed that tape?One nitpick, because this one always bothers me. Sebastian Vollmer was the 58th pick of the 2009 draft; he was listed as the #62 prospect in Rick Gosselin's 2009 top 100 prospects rankings. Gosselin compiled his rankings based on conversations with NFL general managers, personnel directors, pro and college coaches and scouts. Gosselin was (and I suppose still is) legitimately plugged in. 2009 Internet Draft Experts weren't clued in to Vollmer, but the NFL certainly was. Vollmer went essentially exactly where NFL evaluators felt he should go.
Back to Dalton Keene, if there's one things that worries me, it was his Kentucky tape in the Belk Bowl. Those SEC kids really overwhelmed Keene physically. I watched four of Keene's 2019 games, and Kentucky was by far his worst tape. In fairness, it was just one game, but a lot of it was ugly and it was against a more physical and athletic opponent than he was used to dealing with in the ACC (and I say that as a UVA fan). Keene was a speed bump on a handful of plays, where the Kentucky kids went right through or by him. He did hold his own on a handful of blocks as well, but his win rate wasn't that of a 3rd round TE. He'll get stronger, and you hope he'd be able to adapt and adjust to his opponents, but it's still a data point that you can't just dismiss.
I didn't have much of a beef with Asiasi as TE2 because I think he showed NFL power and explosion. While I had Keene on my list of binkies, I wouldn't have. taken him ahead of Trautman or Harrison Bryant. Bryant in particular sort of fills the same role as Keene, but Bryant was highly productive and held his own in the Senior Bowl. Keene could end up being a really fun player, but I do worry about his functional strength and power. I don't see how you watch that Kentucky game and not have some worries.
I think he likely viewed the Kentucky game as a single piece of the puzzle. That Keene was a 20 year old TE/H-back who struggled with the physicality of an SEC defense, but that he'll get stronger as he matures. I don't think Keene is any less powerful than Jacob Hollister was, and Hollister obviously saw the field in NE. I thought Hollister's NFL win rate in blocking was terrible, and I was genuinely shocked with how much blatant holding he got away with at the point of attack. I'm sure Belichick has a plan in mind for Keene (as he does with every player), and I don't expect point of attack blocking being much of a part of that plan in his rookie year. From there, you hope he can develop enough strength, power, and technique to get by. But I do think Keene has a lower ceiling as a blocker than I'd prefer. His strength will be as a receiver, but unfortunately almost all of his VA Tech catches were manufactured touches. It takes projection to see him run NFL routes, but the athletic ability is there.What do you think Belichick thought when he viewed that tape?
So then his Kentucky tape probably didn't worry Belichick too much, right?I think he likely viewed the Kentucky game as a single piece of the puzzle. That Keene was a 20 year old TE/H-back who struggled with the physicality of an SEC defense, but that he'll get stronger as he matures. I don't think Keene is any less powerful than Jacob Hollister was, and Hollister obviously saw the field in NE. I thought Hollister's NFL win rate in blocking was terrible, and I was genuinely shocked with how much blatant holding he got away with at the point of attack. I'm sure Belichick has a plan in mind for Keene (as he does with every player), and I don't expect point of attack blocking being much of a part of that plan in his rookie year. From there, you hope he can develop enough strength, power, and technique to get by. But I do think Keene has a lower ceiling as a blocker than I'd prefer. His strength will be as a receiver, but unfortunately almost all of his VA Tech catches were manufactured touches. It takes projection to see him run NFL routes, but the athletic ability is there.
I understand what you're driving at, but we have no idea how much it did or didn't worry him. Every player has warts, and there's always reasons why a guy doesn't work out. For Keene, I think there are real concerns with his functional strength. If Keene doesn't work out, maybe you can look back to the Kentucky game and say, yeah, I think I can see that. Maybe he overcomes those concerns and has a great career--I certainly hope he does. I mean, if we want to pretend like every prospect is a perfect 10 destined to be a first ballot HOFer, we can do that. But I'm 100% sure Belichick sees the pros and cons of every player and takes them into consideration. He drafts the players he feels good about, but feeling good about a player doesn't mean you don't also see the downside and potential pitfalls. They're always there, you just try to work around them. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't.So then his Kentucky tape probably didn't worry Belichick too much, right?
I think the point is that BB obviously watched all the tape on Keene. I'm sure he saw some things in the Kentucky game that he didn't like, but he chose Keene instead of Trautman - a prospect many people considered to be superior. Doesn't mean BB is making the right call, but clearly he saw enough that he liked to override any concerns the Kentucky tape may have raised.I understand what you're driving at, but we have no idea how much it did or didn't worry him. Every player has warts, and there's always reasons why a guy doesn't work out. For Keene, I think there are real concerns with his functional strength. If Keene doesn't work out, maybe you can look back to the Kentucky game and say, yeah, I think I can see that. Maybe he overcomes those concerns and has a great career--I certainly hope he does. I mean, if we want to pretend like every prospect is a perfect 10 destined to be a first ballot HOFer, we can do that. But I'm 100% sure Belichick sees the pros and cons of every player and takes them into consideration. He drafts the players he feels good about, but feeling good about a player doesn't mean you don't also see the downside and potential pitfalls. They're always there, you just try to work around them. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't.
No one is doing that. But we can't also pretend that every prospect dominates every day. If could have just been a bad game. Maybe he was under the weather that week. Things happen and I'm sure he was asked about that game. And bowl games are just different animals anyway.I mean, if we want to pretend like every prospect is a perfect 10 destined to be a first ballot HOFer, we can do that.
No, I misread his argument. It sounded like he was saying since Belichick drafted Keene, Belichick couldn't have been worried about the Kentucky game. But he clarified what he meant, and I have no beef with his sentiment.No one is doing that. But we can't also pretend that every prospect dominates every day. If could have just been a bad game. Maybe he was under the weather that week. Things happen and I'm sure he was asked about that game. And bowl games are just different animals anyway.
Hollister really did not see the field in New England; I think he played fewer than 100 offensive snaps in both his seasons with the Patriots. So this might be more of a cautionary tale than a counter-example.I think he likely viewed the Kentucky game as a single piece of the puzzle. That Keene was a 20 year old TE/H-back who struggled with the physicality of an SEC defense, but that he'll get stronger as he matures. I don't think Keene is any less powerful than Jacob Hollister was, and Hollister obviously saw the field in NE. I thought Hollister's NFL win rate in blocking was terrible, and I was genuinely shocked with how much blatant holding he got away with at the point of attack.
I haven't seen the Kentucky game yet, but I did watch four other games and I didn't have play strength concerns. I had more concerns with Trautman, Bryant, and probably even Kmet in terms of blocking. The only guys I saw that I thought were better were Asiasi and Thad Moss, and I probably feel better about Keene's blocking translating than Moss's. I'll have to watch the Kentucky game and see what you're seeing.I'm sure Belichick has a plan in mind for Keene (as he does with every player), and I don't expect point of attack blocking being much of a part of that plan in his rookie year. From there, you hope he can develop enough strength, power, and technique to get by. But I do think Keene has a lower ceiling as a blocker than I'd prefer. His strength will be as a receiver, but unfortunately almost all of his VA Tech catches were manufactured touches. It takes projection to see him run NFL routes, but the athletic ability is there.
I've become a fan based on his highlights. He has great hands, appears to be a good blocker and could be a YAC monster. He looks perfect for a McDaniels offense and looks like a bigger James White running with the ball; very intriguing player.This is based purely on watching his highlights, but it seems like his hands are a strength. Nearly every catch I saw was away from his body, a lot of them were over his head. He doesn't just let the ball hit him between the numbers. That seems to be a positive. He doesn't require a perfect ball.
Hey, @EL Jeffe when my amateur-ass looks at prospect performance I look at vs SEC, vs Michigan, vs Ohio State, etc. I wish I knew how to do cut-ups and make videos to show common themes with him. Going to get on my soap-box for a second here but: individual prospects don't always get a ton of coaching on technical things like how to correctly block, how to rush the passer, learn counters and how to string pass rushing moves together. Look at Ed Oliver and Josh Jones at U Houston. Ed Oliver was the same player with the same lack of a pass rush plan in year 1 as he was coming out! Josh Jones footwork hardly changed from year 1 until he came out. Robert Hunt has basically only run inside and outside zone his entire college career. Reggie Robinson is a freak athlete and has natural press-man corner traits but didn't get shit for coaching at Tulsa. Even the bigger programs like Bama don't always do the best job of coaching up their guys or leave it to the players (some of that is by rule but that's another can of worms). Remember Jonah Williams last year? He had that excel spider chart of the edges he was going up against and what pass-rush moves they used the most.No, I misread his argument. It sounded like he was saying since Belichick drafted Keene, Belichick couldn't have been worried about the Kentucky game. But he clarified what he meant, and I have no beef with his sentiment.
Like I said, the Kentucky game was just one data point and you can't read too much into one data point. But it's still a data point that exists, and it's worth looking at how a TE handles a fast, aggressive SEC defense.
Asaisi was picked #91 and Keene #101.I’d they picked Asiasi with the Keene pick and Keene with the Asiasi pick, would anyone care?
Hmmm, thanks, i thought Asiasi was a 4th rounder. Guess not.Asaisi was picked #91 and Keene #101.
Not sure why flipping them would make anyone feel differently or care.
Just couldn't stay healthy a big part of it.Not much to write home about after his pick so these are the easy misses.
The frustrating part is that the 2020 draft was a critical one for the team, given the disaster that was the 2019 draft and the overall meh-ness of the prior drafts. So it's understandable for fans to have wanted more out of the middle rounds. The good news is that it seems as if both Uche and Jennings are having good camps, and they did uncover a decent starting OL in the 6th, and Dugger is a definite player. But the jury will still be out for this draft class for another year.This is your regular reminder that drafting in the NFL is incredibly hard to do well. And in fact, the vast vast majority of picks have essentially no impact in the league.
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high
Obviously not a perfect study (what is?) but gives you a rough idea.