Healthy immune systems?Too early to do some "Coronavirus Parties"?
I think they need to find out why so many test positive yet have no or little symptoms.
Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result.
I can’t read the article but it was always reported as about 80% accurate early on and approaching 95% as the infection progressed. Most of the ID people were pretty okay with the test numbers.There's a lot going on in R&D, though per the WSJ item on Thursday:
Like I get that some and perhaps many businesses have to come back in some capacity in the next few months or we risk unthinkable things. Pro sports do not and do not have to come back until there's a vaccine. China is five months in and took greater steps than we are and still doesn't have pro sports back. I understand this is a sports message board so our perspective is skewed toward thinking the NFL is almost necessary to the point where its return may even guarantee that over 1500 more Americans get Covid and some posters shrug it off by saying we'll all be numb to it in just 3-4 months. To others I know who aren't sports fans such ideas are Trumpian.If this comes back (and they think it will), then until there’s a vaccine or treatment and we begin as a society to just live with it, I don’t see how we can go back to pro or college sports. Because if we don’t have this figured out, then if ONE athlete gets it, if they don’t shut things down then a crap ton of other people are gonna get it.
Also there are 31 Mayors and however many governors, some of whom may be receiving public health advice and/or feeling political pressure to keep things shut down. Let’s say the Florida teams say they want to play and the authorities are fine with it there but Gavin Newsom in CA or Jay Inslee in WA insist that there will be no games played in their states and issue orders to that effect. What then?Like I get that some and perhaps many businesses have to come back in some capacity in the next few months or we risk unthinkable things. Pro sports do not and do not have to come back until there's a vaccine. China is five months in and took greater steps than we are and still doesn't have pro sports back. I understand this is a sports message board so our perspective is skewed toward thinking the NFL is almost necessary to the point where its return may even guarantee that over 1500 more Americans get Covid and some posters shrug it off by saying we'll all be numb to it in just 3-4 months. To others I know who aren't sports fans such ideas are Trumpian.
Then they'll play somewhere else, either on the road or at a neutral site.Also there are 31 Mayors and however many governors, some of whom may be receiving public health advice and/or feeling political pressure to keep things shut down. Let’s say the Florida teams say they want to play and the authorities are fine with it there but Gavin Newsom in CA or Jay Inslee in WA insist that there will be no games played in their states and issue orders to that effect. What then?
Ok, let's break it down by teamAlso there are 31 Mayors and however many governors, some of whom may be receiving public health advice and/or feeling political pressure to keep things shut down. Let’s say the Florida teams say they want to play and the authorities are fine with it there but Gavin Newsom in CA or Jay Inslee in WA insist that there will be no games played in their states and issue orders to that effect. What then?
That’s a lot of neutral site games to be arranged, given that half of NFL teams are likely located in places with current stay at home notices. And given that the stay at home orders are likely to extend to practice facilities then what? They find a site that’s out of state in a place that isn’t under stay at home orders, and stay on the road the entire season?Then they'll play somewhere else, either on the road or at a neutral site.
Nice messaging, Fox. SOME are concerned. Scumbag company.I think there is a 50/50 chance the season starts by October (because $$$$).. The story beyond the late start will be a number of high profile players that decline to play or retire. I think there is close to a zero percent chance they finish the season. You already have cases of the flu that run rampart through locker rooms every season. You will no doubt have teams that have several players come down with it once the infections ramp up again in the fall as expected. You run the risk of a team not being able to put a full team on the field due to positive tests or quarantines. You will probably also have teams refuse to play if they know the other team has multiple infections.
You would think that these guys would all do what is necessary to stay healthy, since being healthy is their livelihood. They are after all young and feel invincible so this happens..
View: https://twitter.com/fox4/status/1246173124065820672?s=21
Tell us more about your political leanings, pleaseOk, let's break it down by team
Probable vote to not play:
Teams in blue states:
CA-3
NJ-2
NY-1
MA-1
MD-1
DC-1
MN-1
IL-1
WA-1
CO-1
Total: 13
Teams in purple states that don't care about football
AZ-1
Teams in red states with an epicenter and Katrina history, and a critical mayor
LA-1
total: 15
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Teams in red states where football is a religion, will vote to play:
TX-2
Teams in purple states that acted late
TN-1
Teams in purple states that need the tourism dollars
NV-1
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total: 4
Unsure what owners will vote:
Leaning yes
Teams in purple states but governor is red/dumb
FL-3
GA-1
total:4
Leaning no
Teams in blue leaning upper midwest purple states where football is very important, but health of residents also important
OH-2
PA-2
MI-1
WI-1
total: 6
Teams in other red states:
IN-1
MO-1
Teams in purple states that I have no clue
NC-1
total 3
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So 15 no's, 4 yes's,
6 probably no, 4 probably yes
3 no idea
No NFL should win IMHO (based on Governors), but can't be sure.
I don’t think anyone believes the NFL will play if the COVID-19 situation is the same in August or September as it is now. Any discussion of a 2020 NFL season, even with extraordinary arrangements and precautions, presupposes a partial return to normalcy in the next 4-5 months.That’s a lot of neutral site games to be arranged, given that half of NFL teams are likely located in places with current stay at home notices. And given that the stay at home orders are likely to extend to practice facilities then what? They find a site that’s out of state in a place that isn’t under stay at home orders, and stay on the road the entire season?
More importantly NFL teams want to have good relations with mayors and governors (and also maintain a good image with the public) if only so they can get the sweet taxpayer-subsidized stadia. If teams run off and spend their entire season elsewhere during a crisis that might be trading short term gains for long term reputational damage
The main reason is player health and safety. If your season ends in June and 2021 training camps start on time in July '21 then you're giving playoff teams no time to recover from the previous season of playing the most brutal sport on the planet.I don't see why the NFL couldn't say start in December and have a full season and playoffs.
Good point.. you would need to cut down Training Camp and push back the start of the following season.The main reason is player health and safety. If your season ends in June and 2021 training camps start on time in July '21 then you're giving playoff teams no time to recover from the previous season of playing the most brutal sport on the planet.
Agree with this. And of all the drivers of a return to some kind of normalcy, herd immunity seems like the only one that is really possible by late summer. Vaccine still seems 12-18 months away, and treatments are reactive, and I think will take much longer to have an effect on public confidence. I really think it's vaccine, and anti-body testing, that will allow a substantial number of the public to consider going to public events again.I don’t think anyone believes the NFL will play if the COVID-19 situation is the same in August or September as it is now. Any discussion of a 2020 NFL season, even with extraordinary arrangements and precautions, presupposes a partial return to normalcy in the next 4-5 months.
Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?Agree with this. And of all the drivers of a return to some kind of normalcy, herd immunity seems like the only one that is really possible by late summer. Vaccine still seems 12-18 months away, and treatments are reactive, and I think will take much longer to have an effect on public confidence. I really think it's vaccine, and anti-body testing, that will allow a substantial number of the public to consider going to public events again.
I don't understand why this isn't getting through to more people. NFL owners, Goodell or Trump can't just order people into a situation that could be health-threatening ... and expect no repercussions.That’s not even including a chunk of players who won’t feel comfortable playing (or whose families won’t feel comfortable with their playing). At the very low end, that would be...what 10%? So, five or so players on every team.
And start the following season in December as well?Even in a scenario where some Blue States refuse to reopen just to spite Trump, you would think that would end after the election regardless of what happens there.
I don't see why the NFL couldn't say start in December and have a full season and playoffs.
Yes, I agree. And should have qualified that I think herd immunity is the shakiest proposition to base a return to normalcy on. In terms of public confidence level, which at some point will become more critical to a return than the actual infection risk, it seems increasingly likely to me that only a vaccine will accomplish that. The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu.Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?
Hopefully some other strain wouldn’t be as insidious or lethal.Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?
Yeah, but like everyone else the Chiefs still get into the playoffs.6 games seems crazy short. Mahomes or Jackson gets injured or mono and misses 2-3 games, the division looks completely different.
Right. In 2018-19, there were 43.1 million people infected with the flu, hundreds of thousands hospitalized, and like 57,300 people killed by the flu. But other than offering vaccines (which only some people get, which we don't have enough for the entire population anyway, and which may in fact miss that year's strain), we literally don't do *anything* else to combat the flu. We just accept that it's "flu season" (like it's "baseball season") and get on with our lives. If a co-worker has covid-19 everyone now is like oh crap. But if a co-worker gets the flu, we all say, oh poor Bob, I hope he's back at work in a few days, and we all shrug and get back to work.Yes, I agree. And should have qualified that I think herd immunity is the shakiest proposition to base a return to normalcy on. In terms of public confidence level, which at some point will become more critical to a return than the actual infection risk, it seems increasingly likely to me that only a vaccine will accomplish that. The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu.
The PA will play ball.. no season means no money for the players this year and a hilariously low cap in the following year. The risk will have to be managed for sure. Special exemption/extra roster spot given for players who test positive, etc.I don't understand why this isn't getting through to more people. NFL owners, Goodell or Trump can't just order people into a situation that could be health-threatening ... and expect no repercussions.
...just to be consistent with what I've said before, if the NFLPA is worth its salt at all, I think the owners will ultimately have to give the players something to make this work. Just spitballing here, but perhaps:I don't understand why this isn't getting through to more people. NFL owners, Goodell or Trump can't just order people into a situation that could be health-threatening ... and expect no repercussions.
You understand this isn’t the flu, right?Right. In 2018-19, there were 43.1 million people infected with the flu, hundreds of thousands hospitalized, and like 57,300 people killed by the flu. But other than offering vaccines (which only some people get, which we don't have enough for the entire population anyway, and which may in fact miss that year's strain), we literally don't do *anything* else to combat the flu. We just accept that it's "flu season" (like it's "baseball season") and get on with our lives. If a co-worker has covid-19 everyone now is like oh crap. But if a co-worker gets the flu, we all say, oh poor Bob, I hope he's back at work in a few days, and we all shrug and get back to work.
Yes. I knew someone would say something like that though.You understand this isn’t the flu, right?
No apology necessary, J-Man. Stay safe!if i get this i am likely in trouble i have a weaker immune system than most arkansas gov is being stubborn and everything is open for now the jonesboro mayor is thinking of stutting down our town but dont want to cross the gov
due to my health i have had to do some form of this for about 24 years i have chronic fatigue and ra arthritis as well chronic fatigue is like getting in the ring with prime mike tyson every day my cereal palsy is mild about 30% compared to 100% which u are a veggie and cant do anything but gurgle i know because when i was a kid i saw that and was in classes with people like that all day when i was like 7
only cool thing was we watched movies and eat food most of the day and teachers wouild stop in for a break from their class 1 thing my dad told me later was the supertiend at my school thought i would not finish school but i did sorry for going off topic
Flu is special and readily mutates. Covid (like SARS) shouldn’t and herd immunity will eventually work:Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?
Star players missing time is probably going to be normal for any sports played in the near term due to CV. Teams will just have to deal with it.6 games seems crazy short. Mahomes or Jackson gets injured or mono and misses 2-3 games, the division looks completely different.
And that doesn't change your thought process?Yes. I knew someone would say something like that though.
It sounds like we agree that fans are out until there is a vaccine or herd immunity? The CDC antibody tests will be interesting over the next 1-2 months.It’ll be safe for 70000 people to jam into a stadium in September? Maybe everyone will need proof of being tested before getting in?
What do you think my thought process is that needs to be changed?And that doesn't change your thought process?
You made a comparison to flu. That a lot of people die from flu season and we get on with our lives. But flu never overwhelms the healthcare system. COVID is ultimately is going to kill a lot more people than the worst year of flu. Flu is something where people are much more obviously symptomatic and probably less contagious and more briefly contagious. Flu season basically ends.What do you think my thought process is that needs to be changed?
The point of our exchange was never that COVID 19 is like the flu. It was a discussion of what likely needs to happen for people to feel comfortable enough to get back out and attend large public events, like an NFL game. I think it will be a vaccine. It was about public perception and confidence, even if that confidence may be somewhat false. Fully aware that the 2 viruses are not the same thing, and that COVID, at this stage, is far more contagious, and showing a significantly higher mortality rate.You understand this isn’t the flu, right?
I first brought up the flu only to speak of the possibility of the coronavirus mutating, and I wondered if herd immunity would take care of it if new strains could pop up like what happens with the flu from time to time. Then cornwalls@6 said, "The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu." And I was just responding to that last point about how we don't shut public life down, even in bad flu seasons which infect 40+ million people, hospitalize 600,000+ people, and kill 50,000+ people. Those numbers are pretty bad and we really don't do anything different. Which is true.You made a comparison to flu. That a lot of people die from flu season and we get on with our lives. But flu never overwhelms the healthcare system. COVID is ultimately is going to kill a lot more people than the worst year of flu. Flu is something where people are much more obviously symptomatic and probably less contagious and more briefly contagious. Flu season basically ends.
The risk of me going out somewhere right now and catching something randomly from someone that will kill me or ultimately be passed on to a member of my family or a co-worker or a co/workers family and kill one of them (or disable one of them for weeks) is much higher for COVID than it is for flu. Basically, the chances of me going to a restaurant or a ballgame before I get immunity or something else changes is zero.
Thank you. I really appreciate this post.The point of our exchange was never that COVID 19 is like the flu. It was a discussion of what likely needs to happen for people to feel comfortable enough to get back out and attend large public events, like an NFL game. I think it will be a vaccine. It was about public perception and confidence, even if that confidence may be somewhat false. Fully aware that the 2 viruses are not the same thing, and that COVID, at this stage, is far more contagious, and showing a significantly higher mortality rate.