I want to preface this by saying that I'll *happily* take the past four years every four years. Two division titles but losing in the divisional playoffs, one WS title, and one .500 season. I'd also happily take these past two years, trading a WS for a crappy season. I'm good with it, though of course I had much higher hopes for this season coming off what we experienced in 2018.
So in other words, this thread is not me complaining. But I don't think I'm the only one who had higher hopes for this season, and I'm not just talking about fan expectations. I'm sure each and every person in the Red Sox organization expected much more from the team this year. So even though there's still a quarter of the season left, I think it's ok to start talking about blame. I don't mean this to be personal...it's just baseball. But things have gone wrong and it's not just all bad luck. So I'm going to break it down into these categories:
Position Players - Offense
Position Players - Defense
Starting Pitching
Relief Pitching
Management (manager/coaches/GM)
Position Players - Offense
I think that on the whole, the offense has been fine. Some guys are having down years, but there have been some real bright spots too. Devers, Bogaerts, and Vazquez have been tremendous. Betts, and JD been worse than last year, but both have still been very good. Benny is down from last year but he's been more than acceptable. This year they're averaging 5.7 runs per game when all of MLB is averaging 4.8 runs per game. Last year they averaged 5.4 runs per game when all of MLB averaged 4.5. So they've gone up at roughly the same pace as all of MLB has gone up. So it's hard to say that offense has been the main culprit. Yes, they've been inconsistent and have had games where they've simply not shown up offensively, but that happens every year. I'd put only about 2% of the blame on the offense.
Position Players - Defense
Last year the Sox fielding percentage was .986, good for 7th in all of MLB. They committed 0.48 errors per game. This year they're down to .984 (14th in MLB), averaging 0.56 errors per game. This year the Sox are allowing 0.40 unearned runs a game; last year they allowed 0.24 unearned runs per game. Even to my admittedly biased "eye test", they've looked worse on defense this year. Bad defense makes the pitching worse. Pitchers have to throw more pitches and get out of tougher jams. Bad defense makes mediocre pitching BAD. Some of it is incomprehensible too. Seeing studs like Bradley and Betts watch a ball fall between them while both of them stand there looking at each other. And some of the bad defense (though this can happen any season) doesn't even get counted as errors. Devers the other day allowing a slow roller by Ohtani to not only stay fair (it was going to stay fair anyway), but get past him down the third base line for an insane double on a slow check swing roller. Now that run didn't score, but it put a lot more stress on the pitcher having to pitch out of that situation. That stuff adds up. The defense has been a letdown this year. I'd put about 8% of the blame on the defense.
Starting Pitching
Let's start with the basics. In 2018 the Sox' starters pitched to a 3.77 era, good for 8th in all of MLB. Averaged 5.1 innings per start. This year, they're at 5.08, good for 21st in MLB. Averaging a little over 5 innings per start. So that third of an inning adds up, as it's meant that over the course of 162 games, the bullpen has had to pick up about 54 more innings, which takes its toll. Moreover, the jump in era by 1.31 unearned runs is huge. In 2018, starters allowed 2.44 runs per game, and in 2019, they've allowed 3.15 runs per game. Enormous difference. Then, on an individual level, their big three have just been gobs worse than last year:
- Sale: 2018 (2.11 era, 209 era+, 0.86 whip) vs. 2019 (4.41 era, 109 era+, 1.09 whip)
- Price: 2018 (3.58 era, 123 era+, 1.14 whip) vs. 2019 (4.36 era, 110 era+, 1.32 whip)
- Porcello: 2018 (4.28 era, 103 era+, 1.18 whip) vs. 2019 (5.67 era, 85 era+, 1.43 whip)
Just disastrous. All three saw far bigger jumps than MLB's era has jumped from 2018-2019. Allowing a lot more baserunners, more runs, more earned runs, more everything, and pitching slightly fewer innings. I'd put about 40% of the blame on the starting pitching.
Relief Pitching
Again, the basics. In 2018, Sox' relievers pitched to a 3.72 era, good for 9th in all of MLB. This year they're at 4.44, which is 15th. Now to the much-maligned blown save issue. In 2018 they had 20 blown saves in 66 save opportunities, good for a 69.7 save percentage. That ranked 9th best in MLB. This year they've blown 21 saves in 44 opportunities, good for a save percentage of 52.3, which is dead last in MLB. We can talk about whether blown saves is a lousy stat, but when comparing apples to apples, the 2019 Red Sox bullpen has been the worst in baseball at protecting leads. Period. That doesn't mean the LOSE every one of those blown save games, but when we are talking about bullpen performance, the offense bailing them out is irrelevant. It's never good to blow leads and they've been the worst bullpen in baseball at protecting leads. In 2018 their bullpen whip was 1.29 (12th best in MLB). In 2019, it's 1.38 (16th best). So a slight drop there. In 2018 their ops against was .700 (compared to a .722 number for all of MLB). In 2019, it's .745 (compared to a .752 number for all of MLB). So relative to the rest of baseball, Boston's bullpen ops against has gotten worse.
Long story short, the bullpen has been mediocre at best, and very bad to disastrous at worst. I'd put about 40% of the blame on the relief pitching.
Management
The team that won 108 games and crushed three great teams en route to a World Series title was largely put back in place for 2019. Losing Kimbrel and Kelly no doubt ended up hurting bullpen depth considerably. Eovaldi didn't work out for 2019 because of his injury, which some here felt was likely to happen. But the bullpen...well, many here have long said that going cheap in the bullpen is the way to go because of the seemingly random nature of relievers. Why spend $8 million on a reliever whose performance could be just as uncertain as a reliever that costs $2 million (or less)? Well that may be great in theory (and the theory might still be right), but this year's results sure don't support it. While the bullpen was bad, at least it wasn't *expensive* and bad.
Barnes: 1.6m
Hembree: 1.3m
Workman: 1.1m
Brewer: 557k
And a bunch of guys making minimum
In 2018 they had Kimbrel at $12m, Kelly at $3.8m, Thornburg at $2.1m, and even Pomeranz in the pen at $8.5m. So maybe going cheap didn't turn out to be the best idea, though I'm not sure the theory as stated above is bad. Regardless, they had numerous chances to improve the bullpen - in the offseason, early in the year, and at the deadline - and did nothing. The starting pitching was terrible, but it's hard to fault management for that. Nobody expected Sale, Price, and Porcello ALL to completely flush the season away like they've done. One might argue that giving Sale the long-term deal they gave him was unwise, but that has nothing to do with 2019, as Sale was already under contract to pitch for Boston this year. Can't blame that contract for his awful 2019 season. ERod has been similar to last year, which is fine for a 4th starter, and the 5th starter has been roughly the same as last year too. So really, it's just the top three that have performed way under expectation, and I can't blame DD for that.
HOWEVER, I can blame management for the way they prepared their pitchers going into this season. I remember asking during spring training, Where the heck is Sale? Because I hadn't seen him in a spring training game for weeks. Someone then pointed out how they're handing the starters, and I didn't really think much of it. But obviously it became a hot topic of conversation as they came out of the chute with *disastrous* pitching. No idea if the way they handled it was at fault, but it's hard to argue that it *helped*. Moreover, as others have discussed the past couple of days, there does seem to be an organizational philosophy of preferring to pitch for the strikeout, being willing to live with more walks than other teams are comfortable with. Those walks might not seem like a bad thing (that concept worked when facing Bregman and the Astros in the 2018 ALCS, after all), until the random homer comes after you've walked two guys ahead of it.
I'd say that ultimately, the players just need to play better, and even without doing much for the roster, this team should be MUCH better than it is. Way too much talent there. Two CYA winners in the rotation along with a guy that probably should have won a couple by now (Sale). Almost any team in baseball would take that to head up their rotation. The lineup has been fine. Defense has been a step down from last year but on the whole, average at worst. The bullpen has been terrible and is probably the place where management should have invested more. I don't think they're playing with a much different philosophy than last year, and last year it worked pretty damned well. Long story short, I'll give management 10% of the blame here, because at the end of the day, they've assembled a team with quality coaching and tons of on-field talent, and the talent - especially the starting pitching - has just let them down big time.
So, by my reckoning:
2% - Position Players - Offense
8% - Position Players - Defense
40% - Starting Pitching
40% - Relief Pitching
10% - Management (manager/coaches/GM)
(Obviously this isn't scientific!)
So in other words, this thread is not me complaining. But I don't think I'm the only one who had higher hopes for this season, and I'm not just talking about fan expectations. I'm sure each and every person in the Red Sox organization expected much more from the team this year. So even though there's still a quarter of the season left, I think it's ok to start talking about blame. I don't mean this to be personal...it's just baseball. But things have gone wrong and it's not just all bad luck. So I'm going to break it down into these categories:
Position Players - Offense
Position Players - Defense
Starting Pitching
Relief Pitching
Management (manager/coaches/GM)
Position Players - Offense
I think that on the whole, the offense has been fine. Some guys are having down years, but there have been some real bright spots too. Devers, Bogaerts, and Vazquez have been tremendous. Betts, and JD been worse than last year, but both have still been very good. Benny is down from last year but he's been more than acceptable. This year they're averaging 5.7 runs per game when all of MLB is averaging 4.8 runs per game. Last year they averaged 5.4 runs per game when all of MLB averaged 4.5. So they've gone up at roughly the same pace as all of MLB has gone up. So it's hard to say that offense has been the main culprit. Yes, they've been inconsistent and have had games where they've simply not shown up offensively, but that happens every year. I'd put only about 2% of the blame on the offense.
Position Players - Defense
Last year the Sox fielding percentage was .986, good for 7th in all of MLB. They committed 0.48 errors per game. This year they're down to .984 (14th in MLB), averaging 0.56 errors per game. This year the Sox are allowing 0.40 unearned runs a game; last year they allowed 0.24 unearned runs per game. Even to my admittedly biased "eye test", they've looked worse on defense this year. Bad defense makes the pitching worse. Pitchers have to throw more pitches and get out of tougher jams. Bad defense makes mediocre pitching BAD. Some of it is incomprehensible too. Seeing studs like Bradley and Betts watch a ball fall between them while both of them stand there looking at each other. And some of the bad defense (though this can happen any season) doesn't even get counted as errors. Devers the other day allowing a slow roller by Ohtani to not only stay fair (it was going to stay fair anyway), but get past him down the third base line for an insane double on a slow check swing roller. Now that run didn't score, but it put a lot more stress on the pitcher having to pitch out of that situation. That stuff adds up. The defense has been a letdown this year. I'd put about 8% of the blame on the defense.
Starting Pitching
Let's start with the basics. In 2018 the Sox' starters pitched to a 3.77 era, good for 8th in all of MLB. Averaged 5.1 innings per start. This year, they're at 5.08, good for 21st in MLB. Averaging a little over 5 innings per start. So that third of an inning adds up, as it's meant that over the course of 162 games, the bullpen has had to pick up about 54 more innings, which takes its toll. Moreover, the jump in era by 1.31 unearned runs is huge. In 2018, starters allowed 2.44 runs per game, and in 2019, they've allowed 3.15 runs per game. Enormous difference. Then, on an individual level, their big three have just been gobs worse than last year:
- Sale: 2018 (2.11 era, 209 era+, 0.86 whip) vs. 2019 (4.41 era, 109 era+, 1.09 whip)
- Price: 2018 (3.58 era, 123 era+, 1.14 whip) vs. 2019 (4.36 era, 110 era+, 1.32 whip)
- Porcello: 2018 (4.28 era, 103 era+, 1.18 whip) vs. 2019 (5.67 era, 85 era+, 1.43 whip)
Just disastrous. All three saw far bigger jumps than MLB's era has jumped from 2018-2019. Allowing a lot more baserunners, more runs, more earned runs, more everything, and pitching slightly fewer innings. I'd put about 40% of the blame on the starting pitching.
Relief Pitching
Again, the basics. In 2018, Sox' relievers pitched to a 3.72 era, good for 9th in all of MLB. This year they're at 4.44, which is 15th. Now to the much-maligned blown save issue. In 2018 they had 20 blown saves in 66 save opportunities, good for a 69.7 save percentage. That ranked 9th best in MLB. This year they've blown 21 saves in 44 opportunities, good for a save percentage of 52.3, which is dead last in MLB. We can talk about whether blown saves is a lousy stat, but when comparing apples to apples, the 2019 Red Sox bullpen has been the worst in baseball at protecting leads. Period. That doesn't mean the LOSE every one of those blown save games, but when we are talking about bullpen performance, the offense bailing them out is irrelevant. It's never good to blow leads and they've been the worst bullpen in baseball at protecting leads. In 2018 their bullpen whip was 1.29 (12th best in MLB). In 2019, it's 1.38 (16th best). So a slight drop there. In 2018 their ops against was .700 (compared to a .722 number for all of MLB). In 2019, it's .745 (compared to a .752 number for all of MLB). So relative to the rest of baseball, Boston's bullpen ops against has gotten worse.
Long story short, the bullpen has been mediocre at best, and very bad to disastrous at worst. I'd put about 40% of the blame on the relief pitching.
Management
The team that won 108 games and crushed three great teams en route to a World Series title was largely put back in place for 2019. Losing Kimbrel and Kelly no doubt ended up hurting bullpen depth considerably. Eovaldi didn't work out for 2019 because of his injury, which some here felt was likely to happen. But the bullpen...well, many here have long said that going cheap in the bullpen is the way to go because of the seemingly random nature of relievers. Why spend $8 million on a reliever whose performance could be just as uncertain as a reliever that costs $2 million (or less)? Well that may be great in theory (and the theory might still be right), but this year's results sure don't support it. While the bullpen was bad, at least it wasn't *expensive* and bad.
Barnes: 1.6m
Hembree: 1.3m
Workman: 1.1m
Brewer: 557k
And a bunch of guys making minimum
In 2018 they had Kimbrel at $12m, Kelly at $3.8m, Thornburg at $2.1m, and even Pomeranz in the pen at $8.5m. So maybe going cheap didn't turn out to be the best idea, though I'm not sure the theory as stated above is bad. Regardless, they had numerous chances to improve the bullpen - in the offseason, early in the year, and at the deadline - and did nothing. The starting pitching was terrible, but it's hard to fault management for that. Nobody expected Sale, Price, and Porcello ALL to completely flush the season away like they've done. One might argue that giving Sale the long-term deal they gave him was unwise, but that has nothing to do with 2019, as Sale was already under contract to pitch for Boston this year. Can't blame that contract for his awful 2019 season. ERod has been similar to last year, which is fine for a 4th starter, and the 5th starter has been roughly the same as last year too. So really, it's just the top three that have performed way under expectation, and I can't blame DD for that.
HOWEVER, I can blame management for the way they prepared their pitchers going into this season. I remember asking during spring training, Where the heck is Sale? Because I hadn't seen him in a spring training game for weeks. Someone then pointed out how they're handing the starters, and I didn't really think much of it. But obviously it became a hot topic of conversation as they came out of the chute with *disastrous* pitching. No idea if the way they handled it was at fault, but it's hard to argue that it *helped*. Moreover, as others have discussed the past couple of days, there does seem to be an organizational philosophy of preferring to pitch for the strikeout, being willing to live with more walks than other teams are comfortable with. Those walks might not seem like a bad thing (that concept worked when facing Bregman and the Astros in the 2018 ALCS, after all), until the random homer comes after you've walked two guys ahead of it.
I'd say that ultimately, the players just need to play better, and even without doing much for the roster, this team should be MUCH better than it is. Way too much talent there. Two CYA winners in the rotation along with a guy that probably should have won a couple by now (Sale). Almost any team in baseball would take that to head up their rotation. The lineup has been fine. Defense has been a step down from last year but on the whole, average at worst. The bullpen has been terrible and is probably the place where management should have invested more. I don't think they're playing with a much different philosophy than last year, and last year it worked pretty damned well. Long story short, I'll give management 10% of the blame here, because at the end of the day, they've assembled a team with quality coaching and tons of on-field talent, and the talent - especially the starting pitching - has just let them down big time.
So, by my reckoning:
2% - Position Players - Offense
8% - Position Players - Defense
40% - Starting Pitching
40% - Relief Pitching
10% - Management (manager/coaches/GM)
(Obviously this isn't scientific!)