JBJ best days behind him?
2017 Age 27 OPS+ 89
2018 Age 28 OPS+ 91
2019 Age 29 OPS+ 89
All over 1418 PA.
He is what his numbers say he is.
I'd have to agree, although it's nice to dream about what he would do if he didn't play like one of the worst positional players ever for 1-2 months every year. I'm just worried he may have another cold streak in him this year because he's been pretty bad of late Hopefully not, and if he does, hopefully it's a .600-650 OPS type cold streak and not a .400 type one.
First 38 games: 145 PA, .144/.245/.176, .217 BAbip, 16bb/43k
Next 38 games: 157 PA, .328/.423/.634, .376 BAbip, 16bb/32k
Last 10 games: 44 PA, .158/.273/.237, .267 BAbip, 6bb/15k
When he starts striking out, things fall apart. He also has a huge home/road split this year. I normally wouldn't put much merit into this but the lines are drastically different.
Home: 40 games, 162 PA, .274/.389/.474, .337 BAbip, 23bb/36k. 14.2% BB%, 22.2% K%
Road: 44 games, 184 PA, .191/.276/.321, .260 BABip, 15bb/54k. 8.2% BB%, 29.3% K%.
This got me curious so I looked up his career line. His BB%/K% are far more similar while the BAbip is far lower. Looks like it could just be bad luck, but it's a pretty big sample.
Home: 1368 PA, .261/.344/.435, .330 BAbip, 131bb/330k. 9.6% BB%, 24.1% K%
Road: 1475 PA, .215/.296/.377, .266 BAbip, 132bb/385k. 8.9% BB%, 26.1% K%.