Machado to Padres for 10 years, 300M, opt-out halfway through

shaggydog2000

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Just what the San Diego Padres needed, a great, lovable player that will bring people off the beaches and into Petco.
I lived in San Diego. Nobody in the press will say a single bad word about him or his hustle. The fans will blandly accept him. He will be king of the town with no effort.
 

Al Zarilla

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I lived in San Diego. Nobody in the press will say a single bad word about him or his hustle. The fans will blandly accept him. He will be king of the town with no effort.
We have a place down there and head down a lot. What I meant was they won’t get all excited about him as a potential great addition to the team/difference maker. It’ll be like “is this that new guy?” when he comes up.
 

InstaFace

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AAV, not necessarily total value.
Could you explain that? Isn't AAV * Years = Total Value, regardless of how that money is allocated to the various years and different buckets?

I realize that to get to apples-to-apples with the Padres, you'd have to make assumptions about what years 9 and 10 would look like, and maybe Machado didn't want to take the risk that he wouldn't be worth $25M those two years. But I'm curious how that CWS deal was going to get to "higher value" than the Padres' deal.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Could you explain that? Isn't AAV * Years = Total Value, regardless of how that money is allocated to the various years and different buckets?

I realize that to get to apples-to-apples with the Padres, you'd have to make assumptions about what years 9 and 10 would look like, and maybe Machado didn't want to take the risk that he wouldn't be worth $25M those two years. But I'm curious how that CWS deal was going to get to "higher value" than the Padres' deal.
Rosenthal didn't tell us how it would exceed the Padres deal so we don't know. He did mention incentives and vesting options so maybe it was an 8 year deal with 2 vesting option years attached.
 

jon abbey

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Yep, exactly, which would have taken it to 10/320:

Verified account 2m2 minutes ago

The Chicago #WhiteSox's final offer to Manny Machado was an eight-year, $250 million guarantee with a $35 million option in 2027 a $35 million option in 2028, making the potential total worth $320 million. The option years vested with 550 plate appearances the previous season
 

nvalvo

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I think he should have taken the Chicago deal. The money is also huge, and he could post gigantic numbers in Armour Square.

In any case, it's fun to have actual news to talk about.
 

uncannymanny

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Could you explain that? Isn't AAV * Years = Total Value, regardless of how that money is allocated to the various years and different buckets?

I realize that to get to apples-to-apples with the Padres, you'd have to make assumptions about what years 9 and 10 would look like, and maybe Machado didn't want to take the risk that he wouldn't be worth $25M those two years. But I'm curious how that CWS deal was going to get to "higher value" than the Padres' deal.
At the time of your post, I didn’t see the years, which I suspected were less than 10. According to JA’s post, yes, 50 million difference in guaranteed money.
 

Manramsclan

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I disagree about fan apathy here in San Diego. Padres fans are going to be excited. I didn't understand the Hosmer deal last year, and still don't. This deal, however, makes sense. This is the first time in a long time (maybe ever?) that a superstar has become available at age 26. The guy is one of the best players in the league offensively. No franchise gets a chance to sign a guy like that for only money, much less the Padres.

Their arrow is pointing up. They don't have good pitching, but they have some promising arms at the major league level not to mention what they have in the minors. If Tatis, Jr., Urias and one of Franchy Cordero/Franmil Reyes pan out they will have money to go get pitching.

The Padres now have a monopoly on the sporting interest of San Diego fans. If they build a winner they will own this town. After all, they literally are the only game in it.
 

DanoooME

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I hope that kid grows up to be the GM of the Yankees one day.
Hell, he should be GM of the Dolphins right now.

Thanks for participating, Chicago. Enjoy your parting gifts of Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay.

*
Yeah, if they can't afford the Machado contract, there's no chance they are getting Harper. They might be better off with a Keuchel consolation prize anyway, as their rotation is almost as shaky as San Diego's (and I'm a fan of their Luchessi and Lauer).
 

sean1562

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does anyone think strasburg will opt out of his deal? San Diego native that never really craved the spotlight
 

jmm57

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BoSox Rule

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That they’re the same age and Machado is already a FA is kind of an important distinction there though, Pete.
 

jon abbey

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June 4, 2016: Traded by the San Diego Padres with cash to the Chicago White Sox for Fernando Tatis Jr. (minors) and Erik Johnson.

At least they got that -0.1 WAR from Big Game James over 435 innings.
Think if they put the money they spent on him towards a Machado they could be the ones with the Machado/Tatis left side?
They traded Quintana for Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease in 2017, the #3 and #25 overall prospects right now, so that kind of balances the Shields fiasco.
 

themuddychicken

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I think it is important to remember, when considering what kind of standard this sets for future guys like Mookie, that there's a discount built into the Machado deal due to his attitude issues. if you replace Machado's attitude with Mookie's this would probably be a $350 million contract. It's Machado's only flaw and without it he'd easily be worth $35 million a year.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I think it is important to remember, when considering what kind of standard this sets for future guys like Mookie, that there's a discount built into the Machado deal due to his attitude issues. if you replace Machado's attitude with Mookie's this would probably be a $350 million contract. It's Machado's only flaw and without it he'd easily be worth $35 million a year.
If it wasn't for his attitude, who would pay Machado $35M per year?

I mean there were three to four teams (Yanks, Pads, Phils and ChiSox) who were bidding for his services. The White Sox were a hair over what the Pads offered, but not that much. I don't think that his attitude cost him $5M per year (or $50M over his ten-year contract) and quite honestly, I think that was a bunch of BS to begin with. There are plenty of dudes with bad attitudes, it's professional sports.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I think it is important to remember, when considering what kind of standard this sets for future guys like Mookie, that there's a discount built into the Machado deal due to his attitude issues. if you replace Machado's attitude with Mookie's this would probably be a $350 million contract. It's Machado's only flaw and without it he'd easily be worth $35 million a year.
this is a ridiculous post... there was no discount here
 

Cumberland Blues

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Agree w/ JMOH that attitude has near zero impact on contracts, and never really has - at least for the elite guys. In 1998 - the two highest paid players were Gary Sheffield and Albert Belle - elite players have never had to take a discount for being jerks.
 

radsoxfan

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I wouldn't totally discount his attitude factoring into the eventual contract here. I'm not saying it makes sense or should play a role, but in the right situation it can.

By all accounts the Yankees were essentially out on Machado largely because of Steinbrenner. Wasn't this at least in part attitude related? Even if 10/300 is "market value", the fact that the Yankees (or another team potentially) didn't jump in and try to beat that seems relevant in this case.
 

themuddychicken

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this is a ridiculous post... there was no discount here
i believe there was. just given his age and production at a prime defensive position, and the fact that Trout (who obviously should be the highest-paid) signed an early extension 5 years ago, Machado deserved to be the highest-paid player in the game on a per-year basis. shortstops who can hit are one of the most valuable commodities in the game and a 26 year-old one doesn't come on the market as a free agent very often.

$30 million a year is less than David Price signed for 4 years ago and it will likely be less than what Harper signs for. remove the attitude and Machado would be worth much more than Harper, who appears to have peaked 4 years ago and is already a defensive liability.

given the money teams have to spend and how rarely elite talent becomes available $30 million a year isn't really a big deal anymore like it was 5 years ago. the numbers keep going up and in 2019 10/$300 million is a little low for someone as talented as Machado.

get ready for a shock in 2 years when Mookie is on the market. $35 million a year will be seen as a bargain for him.

-edit- part of how the "discount" gets applied is by teams not being in on the bidding. as mentioned above, the Yankees had no interest in Machado and they have a lot of money and a big opening at 3b where he'd fit great. Boston wasn't interested in him, and without the attitude i'd have loved for Boston to sign him for 10/$300 (he's an upgrade from Xander, who's a free agent next year). adding teams like NY and Boston to the bidding tends to lead to bigger contracts.
 
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John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I wouldn't totally discount his attitude factoring into the eventual contract here. I'm not saying it makes sense or should play a role, but in the right situation it can.

By all accounts the Yankees were essentially out on Machado largely because of Steinbrenner. Wasn't this at least in part attitude related? Even if 10/300 is "market value", the fact that the Yankees (or another team potentially) didn't jump in and try to beat that seems relevant in this case.
Machado received the most money an athlete ever got in American sports. How much did his attitude hold him back? It's not like he "settled" for 10/$200M. In a depressed (and you can argue the causes of this depression) market, where a lot of big players were out of the running (no Boston, no NY Mets or Dodgers or Angels, and really, the Yankees didn't "need" him) he still got a bunch of cash from a team that hasn't made this big of a free agent acquisition since Bruce Hurst and Jack Clark in 1989.

The Padres were bidding against the White Sox, who again, offered Machado slightly more than he received from San Diego. I'm not sure how he left money on the table.
 

jon abbey

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NY specifically is definitely valuing character or attitude or whatever you want to call that quite a bit these days when choosing who to go after. That’s IMO the bulk of why they seemingly much prefer Arenado to Machado, leadership, clubhouse presence, that kind of thing.
 

E5 Yaz

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NY specifically is definitely valuing character or attitude or whatever you want to call that quite a bit these days when choosing who to go after. That’s IMO the bulk of why they seemingly much prefer Arenado to Machado, leadership, clubhouse presence, that kind of thing.
That's quite possibly true. But the truth is ... none of us have any idea whether the Yankees made an offer to Machado, and we're not likely to find out. So while I understand your inclination to see things in a certain light, there's just no way of knowing whether that idea holds water.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Arenado also plays third base, Machado wants to play shortstop.

And unlike ARod, it doesn't seem like he wanted to move. No matter how slimming pinstripes make him look.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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NY specifically is definitely valuing character or attitude or whatever you want to call that quite a bit these days when choosing who to go after. That’s IMO the bulk of why they seemingly much prefer Arenado to Machado, leadership, clubhouse presence, that kind of thing.
That’s believable considering they’ve always targeted nothing but the highest character players in free agency.
 

E5 Yaz

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Were the Yankees valuing character and leadership when they re-signed Chapman?
Don't be silly. They signed Chapman as their one example to show how a player with a troubled past can become a saint by donning pinstripes
 

jon abbey

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Arenado also plays third base, Machado wants to play shortstop.

And unlike ARod, it doesn't seem like he wanted to move. No matter how slimming pinstripes make him look.
This was never really true, he just wanted to prove he could play both positions to teams before free agency and he's much more valuable at 3B where he is special defensively than he is at SS where he is adequate. He will be at 3B in SD once Tatis is up and maybe even before that.
 

jon abbey

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Were the Yankees valuing character and leadership when they re-signed Chapman?
All I'm doing is reporting what I see, not saying I agree with it or it's wise. I think some of it is their worries about public perception and the flak they took in the wake of the Chapman acquisition and re-signing is a factor. If you put Arenado's personality/temperament into Machado's body, I think he's a Yankee right now. SD jumped in after they saw NY was not really in and their competition was just PHI and CHW.
 

jon abbey

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That's quite possibly true. But the truth is ... none of us have any idea whether the Yankees made an offer to Machado, and we're not likely to find out. So while I understand your inclination to see things in a certain light, there's just no way of knowing whether that idea holds water.
Actually we know pretty much exactly what happened here, NY said publicly in Dec before meeting with Machado that they weren't going to $300M, they offered him/Lozano something around $220M at the meeting in Dec (not a 'formal offer' but they were ready to move right then according to reports), and when Machado wasn't interested and made it clear that he was going to the highest bidder, NY basically moved on while keeping a toe in the water in case he changed his mind or his market fell apart.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Actually we know pretty much exactly what happened here, NY said publicly in Dec before meeting with Machado that they weren't going to $300M, they offered him/Lozano something around $220M at the meeting in Dec (not a 'formal offer' but they were ready to move right then according to reports), and when Machado wasn't interested and made it clear that he was going to the highest bidder, NY basically moved on while keeping a toe in the water in case he changed his mind or his market fell apart.
Wait a second, so the Yankees were willing to sign Machado (despite his bad attitude) if he agreed to their (very below market) terms?

This isn't the Yankees developing a conscience, it's the Yankees being cheap.

This was never really true, he just wanted to prove he could play both positions to teams before free agency and he's much more valuable at 3B where he is special defensively than he is at SS where he is adequate. He will be at 3B in SD once Tatis is up and maybe even before that.
You're correct about that. My bad.
 

E5 Yaz

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Actually we know pretty much exactly what happened here, NY said publicly in Dec before meeting with Machado that they weren't going to $300M, they offered him/Lozano something around $220M at the meeting in Dec (not a 'formal offer' but they were ready to move right then according to reports), and when Machado wasn't interested and made it clear that he was going to the highest bidder, NY basically moved on while keeping a toe in the water in case he changed his mind or his market fell apart.
No ... you know what they wanted you to hear. If you believe that these stories you hear are the whole truth, then I don't know what to tell you
 

jon abbey

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Wait a second, so the Yankees were willing to sign Machado (despite his bad attitude) if he agreed to their (very below market) terms?

This isn't the Yankees developing a conscience, it's the Yankees being cheap.
It's them putting a value on a player, which includes the whole package, on field, off field, things they know much more about than we do. I guess you could call it 'cheap' but it's also pretty much where the market was for him until SD got involved maybe 3-4 weeks ago.

Also to be clear, I'm not saying NY is 'developing a conscience'. I think it's more that they already have so many pieces in place that they have the luxury of at least trying to only add big ticket guys who they're completely comfortable with. Machado and Harper aren't in this category, Arenado and Trout and Betts and Lindor (depending on need obv) would all be in the latter category presumably.
 

jon abbey

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No ... you know what they wanted you to hear. If you believe that these stories you hear are the whole truth, then I don't know what to tell you
I don't see any reason to doubt this specifically, but as always, YMMV.

Actions are what we do know, and NY's actions following this meeting were that they signed Tulo and LeMahieu and the info leaks (and keep in mind, the front office consists of many different people, each with their own ties to different reporters, it's not just one entity with one voice) that they were out on Machado ended up proving true. Joel Sherman has better NY sources than anyone, and he's been saying NY is out on Machado for months now, and it seems pretty clear that he was right (if they had ever pushed for him after Dec, I am pretty sure we would have heard about it).
 

jon abbey

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Honestly I think some of what happened was that NY heard along with everyone else that Machado really wanted to come to NY. When it became clear at/after their meeting that he was just going to take the highest offer no matter who it was from (as is his right, obviously), that played into the fears NY had about him (their front office was split on pursuing him from the beginning) that he might go into cruise control once he had signed his massive deal.

Again, I'm not agreeing (or disagreeing) with how they approached this, but I do think this was at least a component of what happened.
 

tims4wins

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Honestly I think some of what happened was that NY heard along with everyone else that Machado really wanted to come to NY. When it became clear at/after their meeting that he was just going to take the highest offer no matter who it was from (as is his right, obviously), that played into the fears NY had about him (their front office was split on pursuing him from the beginning) that he might go into cruise control once he had signed his massive deal.

Again, I'm not agreeing (or disagreeing) with how they approached this, but I do think this was at least a component of what happened.
This seems pretty reasonable to me. I'd have the same fears.
 

santadevil

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I predict this signing will be terrible for the Padres.

Machado now has his guaranteed contract, he'll rely on his talent and not work too hard going forward and will slowly become less and less of an impact player.

Also, have fun with your money in San Diego Manny
Glad you can stop trying to hurt players in the AL East with your dickish plays on the bases