NBA Trade Deadline Game Thread

DJnVa

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ESPN Trade Machine says this deal decreases both teams expected wins. So, uh, yeah.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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ESPN Trade Machine says this deal decreases both teams expected wins. So, uh, yeah.
One problem I foresee with any Raptors deal with the Grizz is that they are already sending their 2019 FRP to San Antonio, so the earliest they can offer is a 2021. That may actually be preferable from a potential value standpoint on the chance that things fall apart in Toronto, but I assume they'd be hoping for something to hold onto now, be it a young player and/or extra pick in this draft. Toronto does have young players to dangle, of course.
 

lovegtm

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One problem I foresee with any Raptors deal with the Grizz is that they are already sending their 2019 FRP to San Antonio, so the earliest they can offer is a 2021. That may actually be preferable from a potential value standpoint on the chance that things fall apart in Toronto, but I assume they'd be hoping for something to hold onto now, be it a young player and/or extra pick in this draft. Toronto does have young players to dangle, of course.
Flipside is that the Grizz may see it as getting a 2021 pick to replace the one they're going to convey us. None of this should matter in their thinking, but it could.
 

lovegtm

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The Hornets are such a sad franchise. I guess this at least makes them more watchable, but meh.
 

jon abbey

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"Sources: Clippers and Sixers have agreed to trade Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott for Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, 2020 first-rounder, 2021 unprotected 1st via Miami and two second rounders."
 

Clears Cleaver

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76ers just became better. And clippers less likely to make playoffs, means Cs wouldn’t get their pick this year
 

scottyno

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That's like a triply terrible trade for the Celtics. Sixers get better, it probably pushes the Clippers out of the playoffs, and it might push the Kings into the playoffs. About the only good part is that losing the Miami pick probably takes the Sixers out of any possible AD trade in the off-season if they were even interested.

I also just realized the Clips could put together a very nice package now if they wanted to jump into the AD market and if they really think he'd extend there. Gallinari, Harrell, Robinson, Gilgeous-Alexander and the Miami pick blows the Lakers offer out of the water. They could include Gortat for Hill too if it got done in the next 2 days.
 
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amfox1

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That's like a triply terrible trade for the Celtics. Sixers get better, it probably pushes the Clippers out of the playoffs, and it might push the Kings into the playoffs. About the only good part is that losing the Miami pick probably takes the Sixers out of any possible AD trade in the off-season if they were even interested.
Funny, I'm wondering if LAC can now try to trade for Davis.
 

nighthob

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That's like a triply terrible trade for the Celtics. Sixers get better, it probably pushes the Clippers out of the playoffs, and it might push the Kings into the playoffs. About the only good part is that losing the Miami pick probably takes the Sixers out of any possible AD trade in the off-season if they were even interested.

I also just realized the Clips could put together a very nice package now if they wanted to jump into the AD market and if they really think he'd extend there. Gallinari, Harrell, Robinson, Gilgeous-Alexander and the Miami pick blows the Lakers offer out of the water. They could include Gortat for Hill too if it got done in the next 2 days.
On the bright side, if the Clippers did slip in to win The Unibrower Sweepstakes, it might make it possible for them to convince Kawhi to leave Toronto. Hopefully Butler flees Philly, though. Even if he’s likely to go to New York or Brooklyn. (Dream scenario Butler goes to one and Harris to the other.)
 

BigSoxFan

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"Sources: Clippers and Sixers have agreed to trade Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott for Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, 2020 first-rounder, 2021 unprotected 1st via Miami and two second rounders."
Wow. I did not see this coming at all. Clips pick is now dead in the water for this year and Kings now real threat to make playoffs. And Philly gets better.

Have to wonder if Butler could potentially be on the move before deadline. There have been rumblings of issues and Philly must have wanted Harris’ Bird rights for them to give up the Miami pick.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Something tells me the Process didn’t involve an endgame of trading all of your pieces for two unrestricted free agents including one who will probably bail. At least they finally got a player who can shoot.
 

TripleOT

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Horrible deal for the Celtics. It makes getting by Philly in the playoffs less certain, and messes with their draft choices from LAC and SAC. Hopefully Harris and Butler both bolt in free agency.
 

lovegtm

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Horrible deal for the Celtics. It makes getting by Philly in the playoffs less certain, and messes with their draft choices from LAC and SAC. Hopefully Harris and Butler both bolt in free agency.
Forget less certain...the Sixers would be favorites against the Celtics now.
 

Ed Hillel

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The Clippers were going to tank and miss the playoffs regardless, plus we the LeBrons would pass them. I believe the Celtics most realistic window starts next year with a Davis deal and Kyrie re-signing (or else a few years down the line with a third max joining Tatum and Brown), so I’m not upset about this deal. At least one of Harris/Butler should leave.
Forget less certain...the Sixers would be favorites against the Celtics now.
I’m not convinced, at least until Philly picks up a buyout or two for the bench.
 

lovegtm

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The Clippers were going to tank and miss the playoffs regardless, plus we the LeBrons would pass them. I believe the Celtics most realistic window starts next year with a Davis deal and Kyrie re-signing (or else a few years down the line with a third max joining Tatum and Brown), so I’m not upset about this deal. At least one of Harris/Butler should leave.
What makes you think they'll leave? Philly clearly did this GFIN deal with the expectation it would re-sign them both.
 

Cellar-Door

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What makes you think they'll leave? Philly clearly did this GFIN deal with the expectation it would re-sign them both.
We'll see, that's an insane future tax bill, and there are legit questions about whether Harris and Jimmy are willing to take lesser roles for the Sixers
 

Ed Hillel

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What makes you think they'll leave? Philly clearly did this GFIN deal with the expectation it would re-sign them both.
Are they going to sign three max deals with Simmons becoming a free agent in 2021? How much luxury tax do you think Harris wants to pay in the next 5 years?
Woj tweeting that PHI is budgeting to sign and keep new "Big 4".

Mike Scott is a good piece as well; played well for 'Zards last year.

What does that mean, “budget” for them? Ask them to take below max deals? Not happening, so I guess that means just signing nobody else and incurring a large luxury penalty? More power to them if it actually happens, but color me skeptical.
 

lovegtm

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Are they going to sign three max deals with Simmons becoming a free agent in 2021? How much luxury tax do you think Harris wants to pay in the next 5 years?
They're publicly signaling that they're going to do it...the history with non-OKC NBA owners is that they'll initially sign all those huge contracts, be totally willing to pay the tax, and then players decline and they freak out. That's when salary dumps and sending out 1st rounders happens.

Chance Philly re-signs this core: 70%+
Chance it stays together all the way through those contracts: 10-20%
 

lovegtm

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All this said, it's REALLY good that Philly lost to Toronto. I think we match up better against the Raps, and should be fighting like hell to get the 2 or 3 seed, and make Philly and MIL bludgeon each other in round 2.
 

DannyDarwinism

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They have to jettison Fultz and his $10 mil due next year before the deadline if they’re actually serious about keeping both. Even so, I’m skeptical. That’s a lot of money to eat, even if it’s mostly veteran minimums and rookie contracts filling out the roster. But Harris is a great fit this year they can roll out a huge lineup without sacrificing spacing. Only downside is the risk of Jimmy going all-out cancer Jimmy if he’s not happy about his role, or doesn’t like the locker Harris is given, or isn’t feeling his choice of shoot around music, or... anyway, point is, if the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it wouldn’t be a massive shock to see Jimmy getting upset.
 

Big John

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Clips realized that they weren't going to resign Harris, and Chandler may be a better fit for that roster. Never bet against Jerry West.
Harris makes Philly better on paper but to make shots (especially big shots at the end of close games) Jimmy Butler has to be willing to give up the ball.
 

lovegtm

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They have to jettison Fultz and his $10 mil due next year before the deadline if they’re actually serious about keeping both. Even so, I’m skeptical. That’s a lot of money to eat, even if it’s mostly veteran minimums and rookie contracts filling out the roster. But Harris is a great fit this year they can roll out a huge lineup without sacrificing spacing. Only downside is the risk of Jimmy going all-out cancer Jimmy if he’s not happy about his role, or doesn’t like the locker Harris is given, or isn’t feeling his choice of shoot around music, or... anyway, point is, if the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it wouldn’t be a massive shock to see Jimmy getting upset.
nice work with the Jimmy
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Harris is such a great fit for Philadelphia and definitely improves them in their area of need.

About the only question, other than potential chemistry issues pointed out by DD, is whether Harris can revert to being a passable defender. After playing ok to good defense early in his career, he has fallen off over the past few years. That may just be a function of moving teams.
 

Big John

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I think Marjanovic on the second unit will create as many problems for the Celtics as Harris. Boban is huge and he can score.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Chances are fairly slim that the Celtics would even end up having to play Philly before the conference finals, unless they make a run to the 1 seed.
 

Big John

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Boban will also have to play defense and will have to guard Baynes out to the 3P line. Hopefully, the Cs can run him off the floor.
Sure, Boban is no all star, and that's exactly what Baynes and the Celtics will do. If Baynes makes his treys he can neutralize the guy. But maybe Baynes doesn't.
I just don't view this trade as that horrible for the Celtics. Desperation move by the Sixers. Every shot that Butler and Harris take is one less shot that Embiid takes (or that Redick takes), and Embiid is the guy that scares me the most.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Funny, I'm wondering if LAC can now try to trade for Davis.
This is precisely why the trade was made. The assets they received, along with Shai, checks off every box that Demps requires. Gallo’s expiring deal, young star in Shai, and multiple draft picks.

Also creative in that this wasn’t a 3-for-3 swap but two individual trades to make the numbers work. Cap nerds rule!
 
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Big John

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LOL, Kawhi and AD uniting on the Clippers has to be an even worse nightmare for the Lakers than AD to Boston.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I like Gilgeous-Alexander but I am not sure he meets the definition of "young star" at this point. He is a classic example of how NBA nerds fall in love with certain guys - and in this case it may be justified.

However my main point is that he is not currently a widely known name for casual fans. If actual star power and hype is important to New Orleans, he doesn't yet move the needle.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Are they going to sign three max deals with Simmons becoming a free agent in 2021? How much luxury tax do you think Harris wants to pay in the next 5 years?

What does that mean, “budget” for them? Ask them to take below max deals? Not happening, so I guess that means just signing nobody else and incurring a large luxury penalty? More power to them if it actually happens, but color me skeptical.
This Forbes article says that PHI will have $61M in cap space this offseason with just $72 million in payroll committed in 2019-2020. So by budget, I assume that means: (i) keeping existing space clear; (ii) trying to get rid of Fultz's contract, and (iii) asking Harris and Butler to take slightly less than max deals.

I will note that Harris has been taking 15.5 shots per game this year on 23.6% usage. As we all know, it's not easy going from a high usage rating to sitting in the corner and waiting for the ball to come to you. It's also a lot easier to shoot when you're getting 15 shots a game than 10.

It will be interesting to see PHI integrate TH on the fly.
 

Big John

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So now that Philly has made its big move, what does Ainge do (if anything) to counter it?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I like Gilgeous-Alexander but I am not sure he meets the definition of "young star" at this point. He is a classic example of how NBA nerds fall in love with certain guys - and in this case it may be justified.

However my main point is that he is not currently a widely known name for casual fans. If actual star power and hype is important to New Orleans, he doesn't yet move the needle.
I mean if a multi-tool, 20-year old, athletic, 6-6 point guard who hasn’t yet grown into his body doesn’t fit the definition of “young star” I’m not sure who else would qualify. Shai is totally legit already and has a high ceiling with his physicals having a long way to go. I have him about as can’t miss as they come to reach borderline All-Star status and very possibly higher.
Just one thing. Gallo does not expire until next year
I’m referring to a trade this summer when Gallo will be an expiring deal next year that can produce as asset for NO. Nothing is happening with AD at the deadline this week which is what I thought we were all assuming at this point.
 

finnVT

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This gets LAC closer to being in the AD sweepstakes, but I don't see them there yet. The only two young assets they have are Shai and Shamet, and neither is even at the level of Ball yet. The best package they could really do is something like Shai, Shamet, the MIA pick, and their own pick this year 1-12 protected (i.e., if it doesn't go to Boston), rolling over to a future unprotected first if it doesn't convey, plus other picks further down the road. But NOP would have to assume that with AD, that pick's not likely to convey, and whatever it rolls into wouldn't be great. I don't see that as being near the LAL offer, and I'm not sure how the Clips can really improve it.

edit: but maybe I'm just really undervaluing Shai.
 

nighthob

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Just one thing. Gallo does not expire until next year
That’s the point. The Clippers move Harris for a 2020 #1 and a potential lottery pick meaning that on draft night they have a 2019 lottery pick to add to Gallinari’s expiring deal, all their young cost controlled players, and their own future #1s.