SB53: Pats vs. Rams Buildup

Super Nomario · Jan 29, 2019

Ed Hillel said:
The OL missed 21 games total, if you count Wynn, who was also the most prominent name on IR. Not sure if he’d have been a big upgrade, though it’s quite possible he’d have taken Cannon’s spot the way he was being used in preseason and training camp, and with Cannon’s early injuries.

Fair. I think Wynn probably would have started as the sixth guy this year, but there's no knowing for sure. He might have Wally Pipp'd Cannon when he got dinged up earlier in the year.

Ed Hillel said:
Honestly, I’m never really concerned about Belichick finding some decent WR for cheap and Brady making that player better.

I think they need another core pass-catcher, especially if Gronk retires. For the bulk of this year, they had four: White, Edelman, Gronk, and Gordon. They can't expect anything from Gordon, and if Gronk retires, they're down to two.

And they also just need a bunch of guys at WR. I agree with your point upthread that it wouldn't be shocking to see someone re-signed, but the WR market is crazy right now. Hogan and Patterson both had cap hits over $3 MM and aren't likely to be back for cheaper when dudes like Albert Wilson are signing for $8 MM AAV. The projected cap space starts shrinking pretty quick. Finding one or two decent WR cheap, sure, but finding four, plus a couple TEs, is something else.

Ed Hillel said:
Gronk is a loss, but would you trade his 2018 production for 10+ million? Tough call, but it’s not like prior year where it’s some massive dropoff.

It's not the dropoff it was, sure, but I'd definitely feel better about trying to replace Gronk for $10 MM in an offseason where they don't also need to replace all of WRs 2/3/4/5 (and probably also TE2 in Allen).

Ed Hillel said:
Edelman’s going to drop off or retire soon, but I think he has 1-2 years left.

You're probably right, but he often got hurt even in his younger days, and I'm worried about what happens if he misses four or five or six games next year. They weren't exactly humming Weeks 1-4 when he was suspended.

j44thor · Jan 29, 2019

Al Zarilla said:
Rams swept the 4 AFC South teams last year and the 4 AFC West teams this year.

Impressive considering the AFC West was probably the toughest division in football this year.

johnmd20 · Jan 29, 2019

Al Zarilla said:
Worst question at a SB ever was to Doug Williams and it was "how long have you been a black quarterback?"

That actually never happened. For some reason, people always bring that up, but that question was never asked. That said, there were a lot of questions about Williams being black, because he was the first black QB to make the Super Bowl. But that specific question is an urban legend.

Al Zarilla · Jan 29, 2019

johnmd20 said:
That actually never happened. For some reason, people always bring that up, but that question was never asked. That said, there were a lot of questions about Williams being black, because he was the first black QB to make the Super Bowl. But that specific question is an urban legend.

Article does say this though:

(For his part, Williams still maintains in interviews that a reporter really did ask him “How long have you been a black quarterback?”)

Maybe not at the super bowl.

Somebody on SOSH said that Goff wasn’t the most ebullient guy after seeing his presser after one of their two post-season games. Now that press question. I guess that’s the book on Goff (big arm, low, call it Tom Brady).

wilked · Jan 30, 2019

SMU_Sox said:
LockedonNFL, and next week LockedonPatriots. Both pods get into some nerdy football stuff and I tend to learn a lot from both especially lockedonPatriots.

Nice...been listening to the Patriots ones, fantastic

Saints Rest · Jan 30, 2019

Saints Rest said:
That Chicago game really jumps out at how bad Goff was. Couple that with the Detroit game (I wonder how much, if any, BB would call on Patricia for first-hand intel) and you have a couple of games worth studying intently.

Of course, the Rams have to be studying the Pats/Lions game pretty intensely as well.

Speaking of the Chicago game, I saw a TV pundit talking about how the Pats attacked the Chicago D-line could be indicative of how they go after Donald (and Such, presumably, but the pundit only mentioned Donald) through the use of lots of wham-blocks from Gronk and Allen on running plays. It's the way to create running lanes up the middle.

Which Pats game was it where they gained a TON of rushing yards via jet sweeps, not just with Patterson, but also with Edelman and Dorsett? I expect we will see a lot of those.

And as with almost all my knowledge, my source was right here on SOSH, thanks to RedOctober.

RedOctober3829 said:

[icon] · Jan 30, 2019

Saints Rest said:
Speaking of the Chicago game, I saw a TV pundit talking about how the Pats attacked the Chicago D-line could be indicative of how they go after Donald (and Such, presumably, but the pundit only mentioned Donald) through the use of lots of wham-blocks from Gronk and Allen on running plays. It's the way to create running lanes up the middle.

Odd.. looking at Sharp Stats, NE ran zero plays in X-2 personnel (2 TE) against Chicago in week 7:

Saints Rest · Jan 30, 2019

[icon] said:
Odd.. looking at Sharp Stats, NE ran zero plays in X-2 personnel (2 TE) against Chicago in week 7:

I should have written "through the use of lots of wham-blocks from Gronk OR Allen." Not Gronk AND Allen.

Carmine Hose · Jan 30, 2019

Both Gronk and Hollister were inactive for the Bears game, so Allen was the only active TE

BaseballJones · Jan 30, 2019

Reasons for the Rams to be optimistic:

1. Explosive offense. Even with Gurley maybe banged up, and Goff not playing at his best since their in-season bye, they've still put up tons of points and yards. They have playmakers all over the place. Let's not forget that this is the team that put up 54 on the Chiefs earlier in the year.

2. Donald and Suh. The very thing that historically has given the Pats the most problems is pressure right up the middle, preventing Brady from stepping up into the pocket. Well, that's precisely the strength of this Rams' defense. Not only is it their defense's strength...it's the best duo in the league. They have the very tools required to make life miserable for Brady.

3. Playmakers on defense. Donald. Suh. Brockers. Talib. Peters. Fowler. Lots of guys on D who are game-changers. They can be had, but they can also make huge plays.

4. Gurley out of the backfield. If he's fine physically, he presents a matchup nightmare for the Patriots, who weren't good against the run this year and who struggle containing RBs out of the backfield in the passing game. Gurley happens to be phenomenal at both. That's a problem for NE.

Reasons for the Patriots to be optimistic:

1. Tom Brady. His numbers the past few Super Bowls have been mind-boggling. Nobody has the kind of SB experience he has had. Nobody has put up the numbers he has. Nobody has come back in the SB like Brady has.

2. Belichick and his experience. Again, the sheer number of times he's been there, and the Patriots have been there, means that they just have a better handle on how this whole Super Bowl thing works. Dealing with longer halftimes. Dealing with the distractions and the preparations. Doesn't mean they'll win, but it's an advantage having been through it.

3. Power running. LA was dead last in the NFL against the run and the Patriots have been basically kicking the crap out of opposing defenses on the ground. Road-grading OL. Gronk. Allen. Develin. And a rotation of three quality RBs....that's a lot for defenses to handle. It's old school and defenses just aren't really designed to defend it these days and the Patriots are punishing people on the ground. It's tough to imagine how LA will suddenly be effective at stopping the Patriots' running game.

4. Healthy Gronk. He's not GRONK, but if he's healthy, he's still a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. They may have to put Talib on him, and he's one guy that probably can match up well with Gronkowski. But then that means their best M2M cover guy is not on a WR, and the Rams did not do a good job defending opposing #3 and #4 receivers. Hogan could have a huge day if Talib defends Gronk.

5. Elite secondary. Yes, I said it. The Patriots' secondary is well-suited to match up with the Rams' collection of athletes at WR. Most teams can't handle the Rams' 3 WR sets, but the Patriots have enough quality corners to deal with it.

ifmanis5 · Jan 30, 2019

Goodell is doing his state of the game presser now.

Meanwhile Sean Payton was spotted wearing a Goodell clown shirt.

SemperFidelisSox · Jan 30, 2019

BaseballJones said:
3. Power running. LA was dead last in the NFL against the run and the Patriots have been basically kicking the crap out of opposing defenses on the ground. Road-grading OL. Gronk. Allen. Develin. And a rotation of three quality RBs....that's a lot for defenses to handle. It's old school and defenses just aren't really designed to defend it these days and the Patriots are punishing people on the ground. It's tough to imagine how LA will suddenly be effective at stopping the Patriots' running game.

LA shut down Elliot and Kamara/Ingram.

InstaFace · Jan 30, 2019

Ported from the Celebrating What Is thread, a great ranking of how fun/watchable all 52 super bowls have been, which is Patriots-heavy at the top. My thoughts:

Beale13 said:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-super-bowl-ranking-all-52-super-bowls-with-eagles-patriots-near-top-patriots-rams-i-just-misses-top-10/

Here's one of those rankings of the best super bowls that usually come out this time of year. I think this is the first one I've seen that is this Patriots heavy, with all 8 of Brady's SB's in the top 20 and 4 of them holding the 1-4 spots. (I disagree with the order though - definite team and recenty bias, but Atlanta at 1 and Seattle at 2 seems obvious to me.) Not a new point here, but their excellence aside, the sheer amount of Super Bowl entertainment this team has produced is mind-boggling.

I've always wondered why their Super Bowls are always so close and have never been able to put a satisfying explanation to it. I can attribute it to their excellence to explain why they haven't been blown out, but why haven't they been able to blow anyone out? Does Belichik/Brady just bring out the absolute best and most focused coaching and playing from their opponent every time in these games?

These are fun. Though it's really Super Bowl lead-up material, so I've moved my reply.

Should be ranked higher (better):
#30 - SB 5, Baltimore Colts 16, Dallas Cowboys 13. Ended on a last-second FG, the only one to do so prior to Vinatieri.
#23 - SB 16, SF 49ers 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21. The goal-line stand alone made it a lot more exciting than some of the ones above it.
#15 - SB 47, Baltimore Ravens 34, SF 49ers 31. The last-second goal-line stand, plus all the other crazy stuff, should probably make it a top-10.

Should be ranked lower (worse):
#21 - SB31, Green Bay 35, New England 21. Yeah, at one point it was a one-score game, but if you watched it, it was domination. The teams didn't score for the final 20 minutes. C'mon, man.
#13 - SB14, Pittsburgh Steelers 31, LA Rams 19. Lots of sloppy play, nothing all that memorable except a 4th-quarter lead change. #20 would feel more right than #13.
#9 - SB3, NY Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7. Yes it has importance for the history of the NFL and leading to the merger, but for how sloppy a game it was, it really doesn't deserve a top-10 spot.

No objection to the ordering of the top 4, which for the record went:

#4 - SB51, NE 34 ATL 28
#3 - SB52, NE 33 PHI 41
#2 - SB42, you know the score
#1 - SB49, NE 28 SEA 24

The Falcons one is only higher if you're a Patriots fan. If you're a neutral, I think this is right.

tims4wins · Jan 30, 2019

The thing about SB42 was that while it was exciting for the finish, it was a pretty boring game for most of it - I mean, everyone was on the edge of their seats all game due to the circumstance, but if you take away the 19-0 piece of it, was it better than say the Rams-Titans SB?

InstaFace · Jan 30, 2019

I don't want to recall the details of that game badly enough to answer your question. It was a 1-score game the entire game so every possession was crucial, and of course the last 10 game minutes were historic, legacy-making stuff.

Saints Rest · Jan 30, 2019

tims4wins said:
The thing about SB42 was that while it was exciting for the finish, it was a pretty boring game for most of it - I mean, everyone was on the edge of their seats all game due to the circumstance, but if you take away the 19-0 piece of it, was it better than say the Rams-Titans SB?

InstaFace said:
I don't want to recall the details of that game badly enough to answer your question. It was a 1-score game the entire game so every possession was crucial, and of course the last 10 game minutes were historic, legacy-making stuff.

I kind of agree with tims4wins.
If you are grading Super Bowl games by their connection to history, then you have to put other Super Bowls up there as well, including VII (Dolphins complete a perfect season), I (the very first one), and III (AFL wins one).
I would also move 36, 43 and 34 higher.

normstalls · Jan 30, 2019

Interesting (short) article about the shapeshifter Bill Belichick. I didn't realize the Patriots are the 3rd heaviest team in the NFL and the Rams are the lightest.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/29/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-strategy-nfl-super-bowl-liii

Rico Guapo · Jan 30, 2019

normstalls said:
Interesting (short) article about the shapeshifter Bill Belichick. I didn't realize the Patriots are the 3rd heaviest team in the NFL and the Rams are the lightest.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/29/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-strategy-nfl-super-bowl-liii

"The Patriots have played a total of 12 downs with a running back and two tight ends on the field, far and away the lowest total in the league. What used to be the team’s base strategy is now an afterthought."

This really surprised me, though I think they've substituted using two TEs with running a TE and FB instead.

Spelunker · Jan 30, 2019

Rico Guapo said:
"The Patriots have played a total of 12 downs with a running back and two tight ends on the field, far and away the lowest total in the league. What used to be the team’s base strategy is now an afterthought."

This really surprised me, though I think they've substituted using two TEs with running a TE and FB instead.

Right after that was this:
"All of them play a bunch of snaps, and they’re routinely deployed together in any number of pairings – the Patriots have used two backs on 36% of downs this season, trailing only the San Francisco 49ers."

I assume the majority of those 2 back formations were with Develin.

edit: fixed the spelling of Develin; the article had it wrong.

Al Zarilla · Jan 30, 2019

Instaface: SB 16, S.F. 26 Cin 21 ranking higher, problem is that the game was 20-0 at the half. I don’t know if a non-competitive first half like that can justify higher than where they have it (23).

My #1 SB ever would be SB LI. Atlanta playing phenomenonaly well and the Patriots so blecch, then a complete turnaround with the great defensive plays and Brady being Brady AND to top it off with the first OT in Super Bowl history. Head and shoulders above any other game, for me. Really, take away Malcolm’s interception, and 49 is just a very good game.

tims4wins · Jan 30, 2019

Al Zarilla said:
Instaface: SB 16, S.F. 26 Cin 21 ranking higher, problem is that the game was 20-0 at the half. I don’t know if a non-competitive first half like that can justify higher than where they have it (23).

My #1 SB ever would be SB LI. Atlanta playing phenomenonaly well and the Patriots so blecch, then a complete turnaround with the great defensive plays and Brady being Brady AND to top it off with the first OT in Super Bowl history. Head and shoulders above any other game, for me. Really, take away Malcolm’s interception, and 49 is just a very good game.

Interesting juxtaposition considering the first half of LI was 21-3 and not very competitive.

Al Zarilla · Jan 30, 2019

tims4wins said:
Interesting juxtaposition considering the first half of LI was 21-3 and not very competitive.

I thought of that but you don’t get the greatest comeback in SB history without the Falcons dominating so much early. Bengals comeback fell short.

ifmanis5 · Jan 30, 2019

Some practice footage from today:

Carlos Cowart · Jan 30, 2019

Holy shit, the Rams taped the Patriots practice!

SemperFidelisSox · Jan 30, 2019

It’ll be interesting to see if McVay switches things up and goes with 12 personnel. The Pats pass defense goes from #3 to #26 in that scenario.

This game is really starting to worry me.

Mystic Merlin · Jan 30, 2019

Which teams played the Pats in 12 and for how many snaps?

And how often has LAR marched that out? Theyre overwhelmingly an 11 offense.

Not discounting that stat but context is important. To that end, I’m a hell of a lot more nervous about LAR running the ball out of 11.

SemperFidelisSox · Jan 30, 2019

You’re right, the Rams are in 11 personnel about 90% of the time. It’s not something they do often, which is why I suggested McVay would have to deviate from what they usually do to expose this pass defense.

But I think the Rams stay in 11 and run the ball. That’s what the stats say to do vs this Pats defense. Gurley all day.

dcmissle · Jan 30, 2019

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/01/30/guregian-charlie-weis-maps-out-why-the-patriots-will-win-in-a-rout/

Don Buddin's GS · Jan 30, 2019

From The Dayton Daily News, The journey of Alter grad Joe Thuney a reminder of the power of perseverance:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/super-bowl-liii-joe-thuney-journey-reminder-the-power-perseverance/Ci5MZSi6h0pdF19dkTUoTI/

SMU_Sox · Jan 30, 2019

Last year we had the same issues and vulnerabilities going against a primarily 11 personnel team. They have switched it up to more 12 personnel since the injury to Kupp but still 87% 11. This year we have better corners and, I’d argue a better front 7 or at least a draw with last year. Goff has been great this year but he’s turnover prone and makes mistakes. This defense as of late has been excellent through scheme in generating pressure plus has excelled in coverage.
I am worried about this game but not like last year.

Harry Hooper · Jan 30, 2019

I look forward to something odd like Ebner tracking Gurley all day.

soxhop411 · Jan 30, 2019

https://nypost.com/cover/covers-for-wednesday-january-30-2019/

simplyeric · Jan 30, 2019

Harry Hooper said:
I look forward to something odd like Ebner tracking Gurley all day.

I look forward to something odd like the patriots scoring in the first quarter.
(Not original, I know).

Will Gurley be out there as something of a decoy, if he’s not actually that healthy?

Ed Hillel · Jan 30, 2019

simplyeric said:
I look forward to something odd like the patriots scoring in the first quarter.
(Not original, I know).

Will Gurley be out there as something of a decoy, if he’s not actually that healthy?

They scored in the first quarter last year.

simplyeric · Jan 31, 2019

Ed Hillel said:
They scored in the first quarter last year.

Don't mess with my narrative!
sigh.

Ralphwiggum · Jan 31, 2019

Pretty nice piece on Scar, I hadn't realized he was the interim coach for a while during the disastrous 1992 season (and led them to their only two wins that year with Zolak at QB):

https://theathletic.com/792753/2019/01/31/in-stint-as-patriots-interim-coach-in-nightmare-1992-season-dante-scarnecchia-was-the-bright-spot/

Section30 · Jan 31, 2019

Fun little hype video from Colly C
https://www.patriots.com/news/this-fan-made-parody-will-get-patriots-fans-hyped-for-sunday

tims4wins · Jan 31, 2019

They did however score a TD on their first drive of XLII. It was just early in the 2nd quarter.

Ralphwiggum · Jan 31, 2019

tims4wins said:
They did however score a TD on their first drive of XLII. It was just early in the 2nd quarter.

This caused me to go find a box score for that game, and now I need to pour bleach into my eye sockets.

simplyeric · Jan 31, 2019

Ralphwiggum said:
This caused me to go find a box score for that game, and now I need to pour bleach into my eye sockets.

It's Scottish, and it's crrrrap!

tims4wins · Jan 31, 2019

Ralphwiggum said:
This caused me to go find a box score for that game, and now I need to pour bleach into my eye sockets.

Shoulda just blindly trusted me. Now instead you've bleached yourself blind. If you can even read this.

Ralphwiggum · Jan 31, 2019

tims4wins said:
Shoulda just blindly trusted me. Now instead you've bleached yourself blind. If you can even read this.

I was at the game, I just have no recollection of pretty much anything outside of the last couple of minutes.

tims4wins · Jan 31, 2019

Ralphwiggum said:
I was at the game, I just have no recollection of pretty much anything outside of the last couple of minutes.

I hear ya. I was at the 2003 Carolina SB, and despite not drinking before or during the game I basically blacked out for 4 hours.

j44thor · Jan 31, 2019

soxhop411 said:
https://nypost.com/cover/covers-for-wednesday-january-30-2019/

Yet the national media is focused on how Brady can possibly still be playing and not cheating the system while a literal walking billboard for performance enhancement gets a free pass. Obviously Donald has never been accused or caught but sorry that isn't natural.

CentralMassDad · Jan 31, 2019

simplyeric said:
It's Scottish, and it's crrrrap!

Is that the genesis of that particular euphemism?

It took me a very long time to identify what the heck people were talking about, but I could never figure out the reference. I was a lurker on the site for along time, and remember the great joy I experienced when figuring out what "SiaS," "Fruitbat," "Flo," and "Cabin Mirror" (especially Cabin Mirror) were. Eventually someone pointed out a since-discarded glossary thread, but that took some of the joy of figuring out the wit away. But Scottish Game has always eluded me.

tims4wins · Jan 31, 2019

I haven't read much Bill Barnwell in recent years, but his mega preview is pretty good

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25877288/barnwell-super-bowl-liii-preview-need-know-patriots-rams-2019

SirPsychoSquints · Jan 31, 2019

CentralMassDad said:
Is that the genesis of that particular euphemism?

It took me a very long time to identify what the heck people were talking about, but I could never figure out the reference. I was a lurker on the site for along time, and remember the great joy I experienced when figuring out what "SiaS," "Fruitbat," "Flo," and "Cabin Mirror" (especially Cabin Mirror) were. Eventually someone pointed out a since-discarded glossary thread, but that took some of the joy of figuring out the wit away. But Scottish Game has always eluded me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scottish_Play

CentralMassDad · Jan 31, 2019

SirPsychoSquints said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scottish_Play

Tapadh leat

SB53: Pats vs. Rams Buildup

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