The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

lovegtm

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Aren’t there four lottery drawings this year with the tweaked format, not three, such that the only way for the Memphis pick to be totally safe would be bottom four going into the lottery? Fifth could still drop to ninth.
Sure, it's just really low odds that 4 teams from below 5th all jump up.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Yes, I made that point clear in my post.

The average expected drop in position from 5th (just by adding the top-4 probabilities for 6th through 14th) is 1.53 spots. The conditional probability of a 5th-place-finish dropping to a 9th-place draft pick is *does quick monte carlo estimator*... 4.1%. So about 1 out of 25 times. I'll stick to my descriptor of "theoretically". Spreadsheet available if anyone wants to tinker with it, just PM me your email.

Oddly, Tankathon's Pick Odds sheet says it's only 0.6% that the current 5th place team ends up picking 9th. So they differ from me by a lot.
Never tell me the odds.
 

DJnVa

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Not me, I’ll take the Grizz unprotected in 2021. They are set up to completely blow next year and hopefully beyond.
That's what he's saying. I think. If they finish 8th chances are they keep the pick this year.
 

Ed Hillel

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That's what he's saying. I think. If they finish 8th chances are they keep the pick this year.
Don’t we want them to finish with the second or third worst record? Why eighth?

Edit - Oh, geez, I didn’t realize how far ahead they are of a handful of shitty teams in the East. They should be trading their best players in the next week, though.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Don’t we want them to finish with the second or third worst record? Why eighth?

Edit - Oh, geez, I didn’t realize how far ahead they are of a handful of shitty teams in the East. They should be trading their best players in the next week, though.
If they finish 8th, they keep their pick but have to choose from a lower tier of draft prospects, thus theoretically decreasing the odds that they will see any improvement next season and beyond.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t we want them to finish with the second or third worst record? Why eighth?

Edit - Oh, geez, I didn’t realize how far ahead they are of a handful of shitty teams in the East. They should be trading their best players in the next week, though.
They have lost like 11 of 12 WITH their best players so there's that as well.
 

Ed Hillel

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If they finish 8th, they keep their pick but have to choose from a lower tier of draft prospects, thus theoretically decreasing the odds that they will see any improvement next season and beyond.
Oh, yes. I’m pretty slow today. I still prefer 6 or so, in case someone above them slips into the top 3 and pushes them out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If it carries over to next year, it becomes a key piece in an AD deal.
Or used to draft a high ceiling player on a rookie deal to allow us to move Tatum and/or Brown in a blockbuster for Davis or whoever else becomes available in another two years. It will be crucial to have a couple of our Top-8 rotation players on rookie deals, Baynes-type deals, and Smart's deal to maintain economic feasibility in adding/maintaining high end talent.
 

BlackJack

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If Sacramento and Memphis end up in the 6-8 range and lottery night rolls around - if the Celtics logo shows up at pick 9, would we have any idea if it was Sacramento's or Memphis' pick? Or would we need to wait until either a Memphis logo or 2nd Celtics logo is revealed?

I suppose if it got to the #1 pick we'd know that it's either Memphis or Philly in the #1 slot. Still, decent chance it's going to be a crazy night.
 

nighthob

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If the Celtics get called at #9 it's going to be because they're also getting called at #2. And Anthony Davis is going to be a Celtic.
 

BigSoxFan

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Wouldn't the original teams still be represented? Sacramento's pick could still belong to Philadelphia so you can't just have the Celtics there. If I recall correctly, Memphis/Jerry West was there at the 2003 draft lottery even though the only way they would keep the pick was if it landed #1. And it landed #2 and went to Detroit instead.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Just for fun: if the Cs luck into #9 and #2, would there be any chance they just totally reset their timeline — spin #2+9 into #1, let Kyrie walk, dump Hayward and Horford, and build for the mid-2020s around Tatum and Zion?
 

nighthob

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Just for fun: if the Cs luck into #9 and #2, would there be any chance they just totally reset their timeline — spin #2+9 into #1, let Kyrie walk, dump Hayward and Horford, and build for the mid-2020s around Tatum and Zion?
No. If they get #9 and #2, then Brown, Barrett, and filler are headed to the Pelicans for Davis. And Hayward is going to be outbound so that it's affordable. (And they'll probably tab someone like DeAndre Hunter at #9.)
 

RedOctober3829

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Just for fun: if the Cs luck into #9 and #2, would there be any chance they just totally reset their timeline — spin #2+9 into #1, let Kyrie walk, dump Hayward and Horford, and build for the mid-2020s around Tatum and Zion?
No. They could try to trade to #1 to get Zion and use him in a trade to get AD so you don't have to give up Tatum. 3 team deal that spins Horford to another team and involves Zion/Brown/Smart/future picks going to New Orleans.
 

nighthob

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Also the "Trade Smart!" people need to get over this, the Celtics need his deal to afford the Davis/Irving tandem. Hayward's going to be the odd man out as they'd have nearly $120 million tied up in Davis, Irving, and Hayward in '21. Then you have another dozen guys to pay. Smart's outperforming his deal these days, so they're going to keep him.
 

DJnVa

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If Irving/AD was always the plan, did we always have the intention of trading Hayward after 2 seasons?
 

nighthob

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I don't think that Irving and Davis became the plan until after the Irving trade. Three years ago the plan was Horford and Durant. When Durant went ring chasing instead the plan became "accumulate as much talent as possible to land Davis and surround him with a team". When they signed Hayward I think it's safe to say the hope was Davis and Hayward.

But then they got Kyrie. And the plan changed again.
 

JCizzle

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I don't think that Irving and Davis became the plan until after the Irving trade. Three years ago the plan was Horford and Durant. When Durant went ring chasing instead the plan became "accumulate as much talent as possible to land Davis and surround him with a team". When they signed Hayward I think it's safe to say the hope was Davis and Hayward.

But then they got Kyrie. And the plan changed again.
Lets say AD lands elsewhere. Do you think they push things back again and keep accumulating assets for KAT in a couple years? Or does Kyrie change that and they push the chips in on someone else this summer?
 

BigSoxFan

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Lets say AD lands elsewhere. Do you think they push things back again and keep accumulating assets for KAT in a couple years? Or does Kyrie change that and they push the chips in on someone else this summer?
Not sure there’s someone else worth pushing the chips in for. Maybe Beal but trading for him would require sending away Smart and Brown among other filler and picks. Don’t think that’s a net positive for this team.

If AD chase is unsuccessful, I think Ainge tries to get Horford back on a short deal and then hopes that Hayward can get back close to his previous form while simultaneously hoping for continued growth from Tatum/Brown.
 

Big John

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They don't have any chips to push in unless they can create some cap space. Trading their developing young players for second tier stars isn't the answer.
 

lovegtm

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Just for fun: if the Cs luck into #9 and #2, would there be any chance they just totally reset their timeline — spin #2+9 into #1, let Kyrie walk, dump Hayward and Horford, and build for the mid-2020s around Tatum and Zion?
This isn't happening for all the reasons mentioned, but a Tatum/Zion/Brown/Rozier/Smart/TL core would be fun as hell, even if not as optimal from an immediate championship perspective.
 

amarshal2

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I'd rather Memphis be 5th (Totally safe) or 6th (pretty assuredly safe). Remember, the lottery can see teams jump over them to bump them down 2, 3, even theoretically 4 spots now this year.

But yeah, we all want SAC to lose every single game so badly I figure there's a crazed Murph or Sully out there who's going to go Tonya Harding on Buddy Hield or DeAaron Fox. Which would be totally tragic and I would totally counsel against it... if it would keep them out past the start of next season. :)
Truth. Better said would be, "we want Memphis to pick 8th" so finishing 6-7 seems ideal.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Jazz and Grizz discussing a Rubio/Conley swap. Would also require picks/salary from Utah. Favors or Exum would have to be included most likely.
 

nighthob

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Getting Exum would be a decent get for the Grizz. It might also make them a possible landing spot for Rozier as I think that Rozier/Exum might be an effective pairing,
 

lovegtm

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Getting Exum would be a decent get for the Grizz. It might also make them a possible landing spot for Rozier as I think that Rozier/Exum might be an effective pairing,
Would the Celtics give them anything that increases expected wins? If Rozier is the difference between an expected #9 vs #4 (for example) in 2021, isn't 9 to 4 more than the value you get back for Terry Rozier? Exum/Rozier/JJJ/2019/2020 might be decent, especially if JJJ makes the leap by then.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Would the Celtics give them anything that increases expected wins? If Rozier is the difference between an expected #9 vs #4 (for example) in 2021, isn't 9 to 4 more than the value you get back for Terry Rozier? Exum/Rozier/JJJ/2019/2020 might be decent, especially if JJJ makes the leap by then.
Maybe he meant during FA. I don't know if a Rubio for Conley deal clears salary though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Would the Celtics give them anything that increases expected wins? If Rozier is the difference between an expected #9 vs #4 (for example) in 2021, isn't 9 to 4 more than the value you get back for Terry Rozier? Exum/Rozier/JJJ/2019/2020 might be decent, especially if JJJ makes the leap by then.
It was unlikely Rozier was going to be traded this year before the recent Kyrie news as he carries little trade value with his expiring contract. Now that the Kyrie future uncertainty is out there...….the chances of Rozier being traded aren't even a fraction above zero.
 

lovegtm

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Trying to root for the Sixers against SAC because the pick matters more than the seed, but I just can't do it. I hate Philly too much, and the Kings are too fun.
 

Euclis20

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I'd say the seed matters way more than the pick. There's a real strong possibility that these two meet in the first round (granted Indy could still fall), and home court would be huge considering the two teams are a combined 42-11 at home (.792) and a combined 25-26 on the road (.490).
 

InstaFace

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Man, SAC up by double digits now in the 3rd.

They better fire Joerger or have some team mutiny or something, because that's a playoff team - only 2 back of LAC for the #8 seed, 2.5 behind Utah for #7.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It was unlikely Rozier was going to be traded this year before the recent Kyrie news as he carries little trade value with his expiring contract. Now that the Kyrie future uncertainty is out there...….the chances of Rozier being traded aren't even a fraction above zero.
Yes. Rozier is an obvious match/resign if Kyrie walks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Spurs not helping. Kings getting another W tonight.
Spurs are beginning a brutal stretch with tonight being their first of 8 straight road games sandwiches around the ASB. Seeing that I have Under 45.5 Wins I’m not very upset with the timing of these road trips.