Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

Plympton91

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I’m trying to talk myself into Madson. I’m on a phone, so didn’t do the addition or the table, but if you look at 3 year averages, he is significantly better when he is not used on back to back days. Most of the “better” is in 2016-2017 though. Last year, he was pretty bad across the board, though these are all really small sample sizes for any one year.

So, it seems like bringing him in and making sure to limit back to back days might be something their analytics team could have mined for a cheap potential upgrade.
 

Rough Carrigan

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Brad Brach has pitched well in the postseason.
I’m trying to talk myself into Madson. I’m on a phone, so didn’t do the addition or the table, but if you look at 3 year averages, he is significantly better when he is not used on back to back days. Most of the “better” is in 2016-2017 though. Last year, he was pretty bad across the board, though these are all really small sample sizes for any one year.

So, it seems like bringing him in and making sure to limit back to back days might be something their analytics team could have mined for a cheap potential upgrade.
He's 38 now and he'll be 39 in August. No thanks. I'd rather have Brach.
 

bosockboy

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Brach’s velocity was down, they both have their faults but I might lean towards Madson’s velocity. I’d rather have Kelley then either.

Considering how many pitchers who signed late last year performed terribly, I’m guessing we do have a run of signings in the next 10 days.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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So to review, if I have it right, our bullpen depth chart looks like this now

Barnes
Brasier
Wright
Thornburg
Hembree
Workman
Velazquez

BJohnson -- LHP
Poyner -- LHP

Brewer
E. Ramirez
Lakins
C. Smith?
Shawaryn
Shepherd
Feltman
etc.

With no adds and assuming a 7 man pen and at least one lefty (Johnson), this means one of Wright, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman or Velazquez are off the opening day roster. All these guys are valuable pitchers. Underrated aspect of our success last year was the depth of back end of pen, eg Johnson and Velazquez. The question of who has options would seem to loom fairly large. Maybe this discussed above, but I did not see it.

Hence, in effect, a Madson or Brach pick up really is as a substitute for one of these 5 RHPs, likely Velazquez?. Just not sold that is much of an upgrade, especially as Velazquez (with Wright and Johnson) give the pen a lot of innings hopefully facilitating protection of starters.

Obviously assessment of whether Thornburg and Workman are likely to be able to handle some 7th and 8th inning duties well enough is key here. Workman's sterling 2018 AAA numbers give me (perhaps unreasonable) cause for optimism.

If the Sox do decide to pick up someone, I wonder if free agent Nick Vincent is an option. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vinceni01.shtml
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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Based on soxprospects, of the top 9, it looks like only Barnes, Brasier, Velazquez and Poyner have any options left.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Brach’s velocity was down, they both have their faults but I might lean towards Madson’s velocity. I’d rather have Kelley then either.

Considering how many pitchers who signed late last year performed terribly, I’m guessing we do have a run of signings in the next 10 days.
They could always sign both depending on what they sign for. Is their market 1/5 or 1/1.5 like Pomeranz?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Based on soxprospects, of the top 9, it looks like only Barnes, Brasier, Velazquez and Poyner have any options left.
I don't think that will be much of an issue. I'm fairly certain Velazquez will be in AAA starting games for Pawtucket the majority of 2019. He's an emergency starter if things go very wrong. I don't think he's much of an asset and the definition of replaceable. He does have options though, so he's worth keeping around. As much as I like Poyner, I don't think he has much of a shot to make the team out of ST either. He'll be one of the first bullpen arms called up in case of injury.

It's also possible a few of these guys will come down with a case of the hellenic flu in ST and start the year in the minors on rehab assignments, that one or two of them have real injuries and aren't ready on opening day, one or two gets traded, or one or two get cut prior to opening day for total ineffectiveness. I wouldn't worry too much about it, especially since/if none of them are getting paid significant money and can be cut if they are ineffective.
 

chawson

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Based on soxprospects, of the top 9, it looks like only Barnes, Brasier, Velazquez and Poyner have any options left.
I think this is part of the holdup. Since signing a guy like Madson/Kelley/Sipp would require cutting one of Hembree, Workman, Johnson, Wright or Thornburg anyway it’s probably worth exploring if another team will give up someone under contract DD likes more (or has options) for one of those.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't think that will be much of an issue. I'm fairly certain Velazquez will be in AAA starting games for Pawtucket the majority of 2019. He's an emergency starter if things go very wrong. I don't think he's much of an asset and the definition of replaceable. He does have options though, so he's worth keeping around. As much as I like Poyner, I don't think he has much of a shot to make the team out of ST either. He'll be one of the first bullpen arms called up in case of injury.
The same could have been said about both guys at this time last year, yet Velazquez never burned an option (his brief trip to Pawtucket was on a rehab assignment) and Poyner made the Opening Day roster.

I don't point that out so much to argue with your assessment (I think in an ideal world, you're right) as to illustrate the volatility of projecting the roster and the usage of most of the relievers in the organization at this point. Any one of the relievers could step up big or fall on their face, and there's not a way to know which ones will be which.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The same could have been said about both guys at this time last year, yet Velazquez never burned an option (his brief trip to Pawtucket was on a rehab assignment) and Poyner made the Opening Day roster.

I don't point that out so much to argue with your assessment (I think in an ideal world, you're right) as to illustrate the volatility of projecting the roster and the usage of most of the relievers in the organization at this point. Any one of the relievers could step up big or fall on their face, and there's not a way to know which ones will be which.

I should have said if everyone is in good health (which is never the case), there's like a 1-5% chance that Velazquez and/or Poyner are on the team opening day. It's very possible one or both are on the opening day roster due to injury but that would just push back any decision making on who to cut or release. There wouldn't be a roster crunch until everyone returned healthy and by that time, the Sox will have probably gotten an extra month or two to evaluate their current crop of relievers.

9 MRs aint that many. The Sox used around 20 last year.
 

j44thor

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That Braiser BABIP sticks out and not in a good way. He is due for some regression next year.
I wouldn't hate Sergio Romo on a 1yr deal. He seems to be smoke and mirrors stuff wise but somehow gets the job done. At least he isn't likely to completely melt down on you.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That Braiser BABIP sticks out and not in a good way. He is due for some regression next year.
I wouldn't hate Sergio Romo on a 1yr deal. He seems to be smoke and mirrors stuff wise but somehow gets the job done. At least he isn't likely to completely melt down on you.
Brasier's FIP was 2.83. Not as great as a 1.60 era but still really good. His xFIP was 3.78 which is just another guy.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Brasier's FIP was 2.83. Not as great as a 1.60 era but still really good. His xFIP was 3.78 which is just another guy.
And his xwOBA allowed, according to Statcast, was .253, second best on the team, just beating out Barnes' .264 and Kimbrel's .265. (His actual wOBA allowed was .209.) He wasn't as good as his actual results would suggest, but he was quite good.
 

nvalvo

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That Braiser BABIP sticks out and not in a good way. He is due for some regression next year.
I wouldn't hate Sergio Romo on a 1yr deal. He seems to be smoke and mirrors stuff wise but somehow gets the job done. At least he isn't likely to completely melt down on you.
Smoke and mirrors? Romo is like a version of Koji Uehara who is merely pretty good. Velocity has never been the point.

He's never thrown hard, even when he was a closer for a World Series winning team. He's never had a month where he averaged more than 91 on the fastball; now he's more 88. He throws a slider with a huge lateral break, but with the seams backwards, so the rotation doesn't produce the "dot" from the seam rotation that helps hitters pick it up.

Hitters guess against him. When they guess wrong, they're flailing, and when they guess right, they square him up. If you look at his career, his K/9 has been reliably between 9.5 and 11, and his walk rates have been pretty good, too. But his BABIPs and especially his HR rate bounce around, and with them, his success.

That said, RHB had their first success against him in 2018, so maybe he's finally out of gas.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
He also signed Edwin Jackson to a 4-year big money deal. Are you suggesting he's incapable of making a mistake?

No idea what it is you're trying to say with your post, but I'm assuming you're just trolling.
Well, I thought dismissing Brach as "not an interesting arm" in this context, when he was pretty clearly the best guy left on the board, was trolling. So I was responding in kind.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Sep 13, 2006
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Well, I thought dismissing Brach as "not an interesting arm" in this context, when he was pretty clearly the best guy left on the board, was trolling. So I was responding in kind.
I'm curious why you'd label Brach (and his less-than-impressive" 1.60 WHIP in 2018) as "clearly the best guy left on the board?" Personally, I'd prefer the likes of Shawn Kelley and his impressive 0.90 WHIP. I realize WHIP isn't the be-all-end-all in evaluating a pitcher. My question is more directed to what you're seeing in Brach (other than adding another "Brachstar" to the roster) that I'm missing.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm curious why you'd label Brach (and his less-than-impressive" 1.60 WHIP in 2018) as "clearly the best guy left on the board?" Personally, I'd prefer the likes of Shawn Kelley and his impressive 0.90 WHIP. I realize WHIP isn't the be-all-end-all in evaluating a pitcher. My question is more directed to what you're seeing in Brach (other than adding another "Brachstar" to the roster) that I'm missing.
Kelley's probably a better pitcher than Brach, in terms of pure talent, but he has serious durability issues (Google Shawn Kelley elbow), which have prevented him from ever pitching as many as 60 innings in a ML season, or as many as 50 the past two years. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher, which seems like a poor fit for Fenway.

And yes, WHIP has its limits, and Kelley (career HR/9 1.38) is pretty much their poster child.
 

sackamano

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Well, I thought dismissing Brach as "not an interesting arm" in this context, when he was pretty clearly the best guy left on the board, was trolling. So I was responding in kind.
Your quote in that sentence did not come from me.

My guess is anytime someone disagrees with you, you consider it trolling ...

Brach's dreadful numbers have been discussed here ad nauseam ... if you think he's the best left on the board and he has to be great because Theo Epstein signed him, then good for you. Others disagree with you.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Your quote in that sentence did not come from me.
Not literally, no. But it was precisely the import of what you did say.

Brach's numbers have been discussed here a lot, and I've seen nothing approaching a consensus that they are "dreadful." He had a poor WHIP last year, goosed by a completely out-of-career-context BABIP, which was in turn the product of a handful of bad appearances in midseason, after which he recovered nicely to pitch quite well for Atlanta down the stretch. His walk rate also was not great (though better than, for instance, Craig Kimbrel's). Having said that, you've pretty much exhausted his dreadfulness.

He's not a great pitcher. None of the remaining relievers, other than Kimbrel, are. If he wasn't the best left, who was?
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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Whatever that tweet was the account has been suspended so I'm guessing it is a nothingburger?
 

j44thor

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Smoke and mirrors? Romo is like a version of Koji Uehara who is merely pretty good. Velocity has never been the point.

He's never thrown hard, even when he was a closer for a World Series winning team. He's never had a month where he averaged more than 91 on the fastball; now he's more 88. He throws a slider with a huge lateral break, but with the seams backwards, so the rotation doesn't produce the "dot" from the seam rotation that helps hitters pick it up.

Hitters guess against him. When they guess wrong, they're flailing, and when they guess right, they square him up. If you look at his career, his K/9 has been reliably between 9.5 and 11, and his walk rates have been pretty good, too. But his BABIPs and especially his HR rate bounce around, and with them, his success.

That said, RHB had their first success against him in 2018, so maybe he's finally out of gas.
If you are a one-pitch pitcher and that one pitch is effective because you don't give it away, doesn't that kind of nail the definition of "smoke and mirrors"?
 

Green Monster

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Braves down playing likelihood of a Kimbrell reunion

“He makes everybody a lot better,” said Anthopoulos of Kimbrel. “He’s one of the best closers of all time. I did come out early in the offseason and, not speaking specifically about him, but [said] our payroll, our model, I don’t know that us spending big, elite dollars on a reliever — length, the term and all that — I don’t know that that model works for us.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/braves-rumors-craig-kimbrel-trade-market.html

With options seemingly evaporating for Kimbrel, Perhaps DD just re-offers the 1/$17.9m qualifying offer and Kimbrel can try again next year.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Sep 13, 2006
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The Sox must really think that Thornburg and Wright will each be healthy and effective this year.

From the article linked below:

Thornburg was enthused by his most recent baseline of shoulder testing that took place in Boston recently.

"It was my best test since coming over, even before surgery, with where my arm was coming over in the first year," Thornburg said. "It was a pretty good jump, especially from the last time we did it during the season. We didn't do it after I got shut down. In-season, we did it maybe a couple of times. It's a good bit better than that."

https://www.mlb.com/news/tyler-thornburg-key-red-sox-bullpen-arm/c-303133764
 

lexrageorge

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They aren't spending 18mm on the closer. He's said it half a dozen time now.
For one year, I think the Sox would take that deal. It's not the 2019 payroll that is the problem; it's long term commitments that DD and Henry are trying to avoid. Especially if you believe the Sox don't have a realistic chance to stay under the 2nd threshold anyway.
 

bosockboy

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For one year, I think the Sox would take that deal. It's not the 2019 payroll that is the problem; it's long term commitments that DD and Henry are trying to avoid. Especially if you believe the Sox don't have a realistic chance to stay under the 2nd threshold anyway.
Agreed. And it had to have been budgeted in case he accepted the QO.
 

TomBrunansky23

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They aren't spending 18mm on the closer. He's said it half a dozen time now.
You're right, they're spending $17 million on the closer...kidding (maybe).

Couldn’t his acceptance have prevented the Eovaldi signing in theory?
Thank goodness he didn't accept, Eovaldi is the more valuable and versatile option.

Braves down playing likelihood of a Kimbrell reunion


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/braves-rumors-craig-kimbrel-trade-market.html

With options seemingly evaporating for Kimbrel, Perhaps DD just re-offers the 1/$17.9m qualifying offer and Kimbrel can try again next year.
Welcome to the Stephen Drew section of the restaurant, Craig, Have a seat.
 

keninten

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Nov 24, 2005
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Seems to me the Sox best option is to trade a catcher for a RP. Swihart has 5 years of control left and cheap. I would think he could bring a decent RP off a team going nowhere.
 

Plympton91

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Seems to me the Sox best option is to trade a catcher for a RP. Swihart has 5 years of control left and cheap. I would think he could bring a decent RP off a team going nowhere.
Or even just a contending team that needs a catcher. The position is a wasteland.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Maybe DD cuts a master stroke deal and gets Kimbrel back for something like 1/$12 million after he sees his options are very limited. Seems like nobody is giving him a Chapman-level contract.
In the event that Kimbrel were to agree to a one-year deal, I can't imagine that he'd sign for less than the Qualifying Offer amount that he turned down. I imagine 1/$18M is the lowest that we'd ever see him agree to. See: Grandal, Yasmani
 

ponch73

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But the Red Sox are kind of the poster team for that. Lots of teams have a suboptimal catching situation, but how many have a catching situation so bad that they would see Swihart as an upgrade worth giving up talent for?
I bet Theo and company would give us somebody like Brian Duensing for Swihart. Which is exactly why we should hold on to Swihart.
 

effectivelywild

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I bet Theo and company would give us somebody like Brian Duensing for Swihart. Which is exactly why we should hold on to Swihart.
Unless the argument is that the Red Sox mind trust knows something about Swihart being absolute ass that the rest of the league doesn't know, there is no reason to advocate for shipping him off for a reliever. Unless some team has fallen in love with a guy who couldn't get regular time over our other catchers (WAR for the season: -0.8 and -0.5), then there isn't reason to suspect we would get anyone that could be reasonably be expected to be better than replacement level either. And if you think that Swihart could be productive next season, allow me to refer you to the previously referenced WAR of our catchers. Basically, the argument for trading Swihart is that a. The Red Sox are horribly misusing them and b. another team realizes that and c. the Red Sox also realize that and that's why they would hold out for value.
 

Plympton91

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In the event that Pedroia and everyone else is healthy at some point in 2019, the Red Sox will end up having to trade or release one of Moreland, Pearce, Swihart, Leon, Holt, or Nunez.