AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
I wonder who benefits from potentially loose sod? I can't see that this new sod will work well in terms of the footing. It looks like a field that is built for show, not for go.
 

DJnVa

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I wonder who benefits from potentially loose sod? I can't see that this new sod will work well in terms of the footing. It looks like a field that is built for show, not for go.
We can argue that it will hurt Edelman with all his quick cuts. Or that Hill won't be able to get traction.

So, tough to tell.
 

tims4wins

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I wonder who benefits from potentially loose sod? I can't see that this new sod will work well in terms of the footing. It looks like a field that is built for show, not for go.
Generally speaking I think the Chiefs are the faster / quicker team so I would say it benefits the Pats. Plus isn’t Mahomes a little gimpy right now? Could affect his mobility.
 

joe dokes

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I wonder who benefits from potentially loose sod? I can't see that this new sod will work well in terms of the footing. It looks like a field that is built for show, not for go.
Isn't the conventional wisdom that footing issues generally favor the offense because "they know where they're going, whereas the defense has to react?" (OTOH--I suppose that might not hold true in the micro-world of pass rushing.)
 

wiffleballhero

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Isn't the conventional wisdom that footing issues generally favor the offense because "they know where they're going, whereas the defense has to react?" (OTOH--I suppose that might not hold true in the micro-world of pass rushing.)
This is where I was at earlier in the week. I also really wonder about the impact of the heated field. It would be one thing if it were frozen, but this seems like a recipe for a muddy mess.
 

pvg44

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This is an interesting take regarding how the Pats used different blitz/coverage schemes to confuse Mahomes. I'd expect more of the same. One of the commenters in this thread makes the point that Watkins is open right at the break but Mahomes didn't see him. I think the Patriots will disguise their defenses like this with varying looks but all designed to do one thing: confuse Mahomes into not seeing the option that will be open. I think it's as simple as this: if he picks it up (Watkins in this case), KC wins. If not, they don't.

 

tims4wins

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Thanks. From that article:

Team officials deferred comment until today on the change, which had been under consideration for months, although there was a feeling among high-ranking Patriots officials that every option had been explored before moving away from grass. The team had resodded the field each of the last four years, and while the preference was to stick with the natural surface, the sloppy conditions Sunday reinforced their growing belief that the best option was to install synthetic grass.

A spokesman from the NFL had previously stated that the league prohibited teams from changing the playing surface in the middle of the season, but that proved to be incorrect.

NFL vice president of public relations Greg Aiello said yesterday that the league's Competition Committee had suggested that policy as a possible rule, but it was never adopted. Aiello added that the Patriots' change was a team decision, not a league mandate.

"It was a club decision, we were notified, and we understand the Patriots' concerns," Aiello said. "We'll continue to monitor the field conditions at Gillette Stadium."


The Patriots had resodded a significant portion of the middle of the field and both end zones prior to their Nov. 5 game against the Colts. The new sod showed significant wear after that game and after Sunday's contest, in which quarterback Tom Brady lost his footing several times. Asked about the field conditions after Sunday's loss, nose tackle Vince Wilfork described it simply as "terrible."
 

kelpapa

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Bill Barnwell on ESPN.com: Fact-checking Patriots' 18-year NFL dynasty: What's real, what's a myth:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25787154/fact-checking-patriots-18-year-nfl-dynasty-real-myth
Speaking of myths, from that article:
Before the 2009 season began, the NFL instituted a "Brady Rule" banning forcible hits below the knees on quarterbacks in the pocket. Frustrated Cincinnati Bengals fans wondered why the league hadn't been as concerned about low hits after Kimo von Oelhoffen destroyed Carson Palmer's knee during the 2005 playoffs, and it's fair to say they have a gripe.
That's the Carson Palmer rule. After Brady got hurt, they instituted a clarification to the rule, but the rule was instituted after Palmer's injury.
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.
Generally speaking I think the Chiefs are the faster / quicker team so I would say it benefits the Pats. Plus isn’t Mahomes a little gimpy right now? Could affect his mobility.
Everybody saw how badly Mahomes was limping after having his knee bent backwards vs. IND, yet not a lot of discussion on this compared to weather, crowd noise, field conditions, etc. Maybe he’s 100% fine, no issues. Or maybe he comes out in pregame wearing a brace, or seems to favor it. Or isn’t darting around much... all under the watchful eye of BB and staff.

How would that affect the early defensive sets? Do they bait him out of the pocket to see if he’s affected by it? And if so (or if he stays in the pocket), do they go to cover 2, rush 5, inside blitz, etc.

He’s probably fine, but if not, a lot could be turned upside down very early.
 

wiffleballhero

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Mahomes looked fine after the knee injury, but he also did not exactly turn the second half into a track meet either, essentially handing off an awful lot.
With respect to this:
How would that affect the early defensive sets? Do they bait him out of the pocket to see if he’s affected by it? And if so
IDK it seems like a waste of resources to focus on this at all since the information will be readily apparent in the natural flow of the game. Let's say we never find out? That probably means Mahomes was in the pocket all day. I'd take that.

I've been trying to watch as much of the Chiefs' season as I can fit in (not a ton but some).

I just quickly rewatched most of the Colts-Chiefs game. A few things that stick out just from that game:

1. Indy does an awful lot of bad stuff in this game and still they are really only two missed Vinatieri kicks away from it being a one possession game with the ball and three minutes to go. This game hardly looks like evidence of KC just hitting on all cylinders right now.
2. Indy pitched a shutout in the second half that woulda-coulda-shoulda held up but for a crappy penalty for bumping into the punter with 3:40ish left in the game.
3. Indy seemed like they could get some penetration on the edge and they also collapsed the pocket a bit. The play in the first half where Mahomes got injured was not totally atypical (where the pocket just folds in on him from all sides). Flowers could be a real problem for them (let's hope).
 

brandonchristensen

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This is the first in 6 years that I'm not traveling during any of the playoff games.

If they win, my traveling will be Sunday-free completely.

Pretty awesome.
 

Super Nomario

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Everybody saw how badly Mahomes was limping after having his knee bent backwards vs. IND, yet not a lot of discussion on this compared to weather, crowd noise, field conditions, etc. Maybe he’s 100% fine, no issues. Or maybe he comes out in pregame wearing a brace, or seems to favor it. Or isn’t darting around much... all under the watchful eye of BB and staff.

How would that affect the early defensive sets? Do they bait him out of the pocket to see if he’s affected by it? And if so (or if he stays in the pocket), do they go to cover 2, rush 5, inside blitz, etc.

He’s probably fine, but if not, a lot could be turned upside down very early.
By my count, Mahomes was 16 of 24 for 156 yards after that, with 3 sacks. He was only 1 of 5 for 17 in deep pass attempts after that. Then again, hard to tell how much was just the Chiefs taking the foot off the gas - they were up 14-0 at the time of the play, and already in FG range to make it 17-0. Mahomes only dropped back to pass four times in the final quarter.

EDIT: he did have a four-yard touchdown run on a scramble late in the second. So I'm dubious his knee is going to be a factor.
 

pokey_reese

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Didn't see that anyone has posted this yet, but the FootballOutsiders guys have a pretty exhaustive preview up: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2019/afc-championship-preview-2019

Nothing too surprising, they make the point that it's a good matchup, but that we shouldn't overlook that a.) the Chiefs were comfortably the best team by most measures all season, and b.) The Pats have struggled mightily on the road, so it's logical that the Chiefs are the favorite.
 

pvg44

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Ok, as the lone Chief fan here, I will now express my impatience at the educated takes regarding this game, today expressed by Chris Gasper (who I respect and find a refreshing escape from the idiotic trolling of F&M). He and others have said that the Chiefs were impressive, but not very, against the Colts, and that the Pats will administer a death by a thousand cuts against the Chief defense to keep Mahomes off the field. But that’s exactly what KC did last week! They were content to keep the ball, control the clock, and make the Colts have to go downfield (albeit with the lead, but that’s how they got the lead). KC wants to keep Brady off the field too; it’s not like their offensive playbook consists only of 89-yard plays to Hill. Mahomes has shown the patience to accept the 6-yard gain to keep the chains moving. I think many underestimate that KC would love to play a ball control game. Can the Pats defense stop what many say the KC defense cannot?
 

BlackJack

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I think many underestimate that KC would love to play a ball control game. Can the Pats defense stop what many say the KC defense cannot?
Dunno. We’re going to find out on Sunday though.

I am usually fairly optimistic on the Pats chances in any given game. This one I feel like practically any outcome could happen. I could see a blow out either way, I could see a close game that comes down to the final minutes. About the only outcome that I think is unlikely is NE coming back if KC gets out to a big lead early. I know the Pats did it (twice in the same game!) against the Ravens, who were obviously a better defense then than KC is now but that’s the one scenario that would surprise me.

Of course as I said, I’m generally pretty optimistic of the Pats chances so this thinking probably indicates that I secretly think they’re going to lose. :(
 

rodderick

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Ok, as the lone Chief fan here, I will now express my impatience at the educated takes regarding this game, today expressed by Chris Gasper (who I respect and find a refreshing escape from the idiotic trolling of F&M). He and others have said that the Chiefs were impressive, but not very, against the Colts, and that the Pats will administer a death by a thousand cuts against the Chief defense to keep Mahomes off the field. But that’s exactly what KC did last week! They were content to keep the ball, control the clock, and make the Colts have to go downfield (albeit with the lead, but that’s how they got the lead). KC wants to keep Brady off the field too; it’s not like their offensive playbook consists only of 89-yard plays to Hill. Mahomes has shown the patience to accept the 6-yard gain to keep the chains moving. I think many underestimate that KC would love to play a ball control game. Can the Pats defense stop what many say the KC defense cannot?
It's 2019, guys. Scrape the "keep Brady off the field" stuff off the playbook. The way you beat the Patriots is by being aggressive, taking the lead early, and then rushing the passer. Make the Patriots play keep up, score, go for their throat. If you try to control the clock, they'll kill you. The Chiefs have the perfect roster to pull off what I described, I'm hoping they'll overthink it and try to run the ball and be careful to avoid turnovers in the passing game.
 

tims4wins

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Dunno. We’re going to find out on Sunday though.

I am usually fairly optimistic on the Pats chances in any given game. This one I feel like practically any outcome could happen. I could see a blow out either way, I could see a close game that comes down to the final minutes. About the only outcome that I think is unlikely is NE coming back if KC gets out to a big lead early. I know the Pats did it (twice in the same game!) against the Ravens, who were obviously a better defense then than KC is now but that’s the one scenario that would surprise me.

Of course as I said, I’m generally pretty optimistic of the Pats chances so this thinking probably indicates that I secretly think they’re going to lose. :(
I completely agree with this take. The Pats aren’t coming from two scores down to win. Any other outcome seems possible.
 

Harry Hooper

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Ok, as the lone Chief fan here, I will now express my impatience at the educated takes regarding this game, today expressed by Chris Gasper (who I respect and find a refreshing escape from the idiotic trolling of F&M). He and others have said that the Chiefs were impressive, but not very, against the Colts, and that the Pats will administer a death by a thousand cuts against the Chief defense to keep Mahomes off the field. But that’s exactly what KC did last week! They were content to keep the ball, control the clock, and make the Colts have to go downfield (albeit with the lead, but that’s how they got the lead). KC wants to keep Brady off the field too; it’s not like their offensive playbook consists only of 89-yard plays to Hill. Mahomes has shown the patience to accept the 6-yard gain to keep the chains moving. I think many underestimate that KC would love to play a ball control game. Can the Pats defense stop what many say the KC defense cannot?
Good stuff. There's little evidence the Pats can firmly handle passes to the RBs out of the backfield.

Any thoughts on the (heated) field's slickness or softness in the expected game conditions?
 

DJnVa

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Good stuff. There's little evidence the Pats can firmly handle passes to the RBs out of the backfield.

Any thoughts on the (heated) field's slickness or softness in the expected game conditions?

Maybe they can’t. But KC gave up 5th most yards to RBs catching passes and their best coverage LB isn’t playing.
 

tims4wins

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I am as optimistic a Pats fan as I know. I think this team can win on Sunday. I don’t think they can come from behind, on the road.
 

Al Zarilla

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Not this team.
That’s right, this team won’t dig a hole that deep. I wonder if anybody asked BB this week if he had any idea about why the big difference in Pats performance this year home vs. away. Not that he’d give the reason if he had one. Still, I don’t see any reason why they can’t turn that around and kick ass on the road. 35-7 at the half against a very good Chargers team is pretty wild. If I were the Chiefs I’d be afraid of the Patriots peaking, road or not.