According to BBRef, last year Cs were 10-8 when KI was 30+; 19-9 when he was 25+.
This year they are 5-1 when KI is 30+; 10-4 when he is 25+.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
This year they are 5-1 when KI is 30+; 10-4 when he is 25+.
To me, GH's recuperation is most apparent when he tries to take guys off the dribble. And that's the biggest problem for the Cs - other than KI and MaMo, no one seems capable of consistently generating offense. Not even JT. That to me is why the offense breaks down.
I was only commenting on the overly optimistic poster who was insinuating that we have maybe turned a corner when in actuality it seems like we may be going the opposite direction. Those wins against playoff teams were earlier in the season.....we have not played well against these teams over the last month.
Watching an underachieving team stumble while not appearing cohesive or improving as the season progresses isn’t quite my definition of a super fun team although I always enjoy each Celtics teams journey. The league as a whole this year is as good as it’s ever been imho.
This is true for literally every NBA team and its best player, even GSW and Steph. Imagine Milwaukee without Giannis, or Houston without Harden...
I guess that's what made last seasons Celtics so improbable/exciting. And lifted all of our expectations this season.
So far this season we have:
Kyrie having his best season ever...
Gordon coming back and starting to add value from the bench...
MaMo having his best season ever and getting All-Star consideration...
Tatum bigger, better, stronger...
Smart playing smarter...
Jaylen Brown has been awful and Terry Rozier has been meh...
Besides those two (with their minutes in decline) where should the Celtics expect to extract improvement?
Everyone knows where I stand. While I don't agree with HRB's pessimism, what if he is correct and the Celtics are really that 10-10 team. What will/should this team do to get better?
Furthermore, four of those loses were on the road to *current* WC playoff teams while on a road trip. They had also won the prior two games going in to last night's match-up.
Your take - and its one that several others here including DotB have noted - is correct. Memphis isn't consistent.
And while HRB is right that Memphis isn't in the playoffs if they started right now, they are one or two wins away from being in, and four back of the third seed in the West. This isn't to say that they will overcome those deficits but the characterization of this team as anything other than a potential lower seed in the conference is showing bias. They aren't a tanking team, they arent a pure lottery team and they aren't "bad" as some posters commented in the game-thread (understandable given what they were like last season).
The Celtics had a good win on the road and the line on the game really has little relevance because points dont count in standings for the NBA. I agree with lexrageorge in that this forum - no, more like this site - seems to celebrate failure more than it does recognize winning.
HRB will always think he is the smartest guy in the room. It’s obnoxious.
Eh, he is fine. His posts here add a ton of insight and his measured perspective balances out the homers here (I am in this camp - "guilty") as well as those who can find anything to complain about even when the Celtics are doing well.
I don't think he actually told little kids Santa doesn't exist. I am reserving judgement on whether he tells them about the Easter Bunny though. HRB is more opportunistic than peak Rondo.
I agree with your point and you could add AD and Lebron to the list as well.
Given the Celtics’ performance last year in the playoffs without Kyrie, my hope was that more of the surrounding cast would have further improved and developed this season. So far that hasn’t been obvious to me (and frankly what happened last year means little to nothing relative to this year) but the truth is they may have in ways that are not apparent and this team is doing just fine. It’s a long season and a lot can happen between now and the postseason. I will be happy to watch how the rest of it plays out and I will be more than thrilled to see Kyrie continue to work his magic. There is no player in the league more enjoyable to watch in my opinion. It seems likely that his supporting cast will continue to improve throughout the season which is something to really look forward to.
If the Cs are a 10-10 team, DA has some decisions to make in the offseason.
As for this season, what are the options? I can't see DA getting rid of Tatum for anyone who would be available. FH is untradeable. MaMo is a bargain, KI is KI. And DA isn't going to sell low on JB or TRoz. So what could be dome?
Either they figure it out or its going to be a long season. And a longer off-season.
i disagree with this take entirely. I think the Celtics have improved dramatically since the first 20 games when they beat all the good teams. I don’t know what you’re watching but this isn’t keeping it real, it’s wrong.
They lost to Milwaukee without Al or Baynes. They started Semi at the 5 and got out rebounded by 20.
They lost to Houston with Al on a minutes restriction and no Baynes (again, go look at the rebounding numbers, they lost by 20). Looking deeper, four of the Celtics starters were positive +/- while an out of his mind Harden was a mere +3. In that game Rivers, Green, and Nene were +63 (sum of +/-) and Brown/Hayward/Theis/Rozier were -84. i wouldn’t count on history repeating itself here.
Really though, they’ve mostly been much better. Pick a stat, record, point differential, etc. they’re playing better overall and against the bad teams. Offensively in particular they’ve gone from bottom of the league to quite good. I think the trajectory is promising particularly once everyone is back and Hayward/Brown get closer to form.
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There definitely has been improvement, and discounting the wins against Philly and Memphis makes no sense.
It’s still an honest question as to whether the team is able to sustain this trend into January, but they are better than the 10-10 team we saw earlier.
It’s still an honest question as to whether the team is able to sustain this trend into January, but they are better than the 10-10 team we saw earlier.
Who is discounting those wins? We played 4 playoff teams and Philly was only one we beat. I can’t give kudos to 1 win out of 4 especially when one of those losses was to the Pistons.....to me that isn’t the sign of an improving team. I had clearly stated that any road win in this league is a good win and even though the Grizzlies showed us early on that when healthy they aren’t a bottom-3 team they simply are not a playoff team in the WC now that we see them once their role players are no longer having the best stretches of their careers.
I’m not saying this Celtics team is going to miss the playoffs or anything crazy only that I feel that their play and numbers over the past month are fooling those who aren’t looking beyond those numbers. Even Yi Jianlian scored against a chair.
I don’t mean to ruffle anyone’s feathers with my position but isn’t the purpose of this board to share opinions and your reasons for it? I put more weight in a posters opinion when they state their contrary opinion then a simple one sentence ststement meant to demean someone without added any meat to their take. Tonight is a good test for them in San Antonio. Can’t wait for it and hope my eyes have been fooling me all month.
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No feathers ruffled here. Your opinions (especially strong ones) on Celtics/hoops are always appreciated, even if they don't line up with my thoughts.
Happy New Years folks.
Same. It's not unusual for people to disagree on some of this stuff, especially since half of our conversations are projections on guys young enough to be our kids (or teams stocked with them).
There are bound to be differing, yet informed positions. It's part of the joy.
Keep being you, HRB, BH, and everyone else. This is a damn good forum.
Happy New Year.
Sorry, but Hayward is a reason for optimism for me. Given how long he was sidelined, I expect him to improve. I think it will be slow, which will aggravate some, but I do think he will be much better in April than he was in December.
This is the whole fun of the NBA. It's critical to have stars, but beyond that, chemistry, fit, redundancy, coaching, and motivation all matter a ton. 1 + 1 +1 can equal 1, 2, 4 or 6, depending on skillset complement, confidence, energy, experience, and whether one guy banged his teammate's wife.
Lots of recent great teams have struggled to get the mix right and find an identity. You could argue that the LeBron Heat didn't really figure out who they were until the 2012 playoffs, for example.
We're lucky that our star player understands that and is treating it as a process.
Very encouraging to me that he's been getting to the line a bit more as he goes.
1.7 FTA in October
2.2 FTA in November
2.8 FTA in December
May be just random, but I think he's becoming more and more comfortable driving and taking contact at the rim.
I don't know if his full explosiveness will ever come back, but with his passing/shooting/handling skills and his size, his willingness to drive would still leave him as a hell of a player.
GH says: "Hey Port Cellar, be patient with me!"
As for JB, I wonder how much his hand injury is hurting is hurting his shooting.
Yeah, I’m not sure. All I know is that Jaylen was one of my favorite players on last year’s team and I want that guy back and back soon.
Maybe this all means we just will get to re-sign Jaylen at a discount to what he really deserves because his market will be soft.
And maybe in his age 29 season he can put up numbers similar to what Morris is doing this year.
I get pissed off every game watching Rozier play no defense and force bad shots. He's getting a free pass here and elsewhere.
Jaylen disappoints me, because he seems lost so often. I'm still optimistic with him.
Jaylen disappoints me, because he seems lost so often. I'm still optimistic with him.
I must have missed it, sorry. Feels like me shouting at the moon sometimes. I love what he did the last 40-ish games last year and what he can do.
Rozier isn’t getting a free pass. He’s just been so bad we’ve all decided to bury our heads in the sand whenever he is on the court.
I'm assuming you're talking about me. All I did was make a simple, factual observation that we were 12-4 in our last 16 games. Literally, that's all i said. That you would take that as irrational optimism is a take I just can't understand.
This team has frustrated me as well. Yet I think it perfectly reasonable to think there's a good chance that Brown and Rozier will figure out a way to be productive in reduced roles. These are guys who have thrived in the playoffs playing bigger minutes. I also think it reasonable to think that Hayward will improve over what we've seen. I'm no doubt an optimist by nature, which I won't apologize for.
How about some rational optimism? The starting five is finally set and Hayward seems to have found a place, running the second unit. With any luck, Jamal Crawford's tweet that Hayward will return to form by the playoffs will be prophetic. My hope is that he can continue shooting .380+ from three as he has in December.
I'm also optimistic that JB and TR will find their roles over the next 50 games. They now know that on this team, they're backup players. JB seems to be working at what Brad wants him to do. Take it to the well, spot up for 3's and play tenacious defense. TR, pretty needs to do the same but it would be nice to see him playing within the offense.
Now for some pessimism, this team will only go as far as Al Horford can take it.
I'm also optimistic that JB and TR will find their roles over the next 50 games. They now know that on this team, they're backup players. JB seems to be working at what Brad wants him to do. Take it to the well, spot up for 3's and play tenacious defense. TR, pretty needs to do the same but it would be nice to see him playing within the offense.
Now for some pessimism, this team will only go as far as Al Horford can take it.
No, I was not referring to you at all.
The problem is that he can't do what he did last year while Kyrie has the ball in his hands and Rozier is relegated to playing some of his minutes off the ball with Kyrie and a limited number with the ball. His splits are very telling even with the two starts being a small sample from this year it is consistent with his production last year in the same role when Kyrie was out for the year (with the exception of a bloated TS% obvious due to SSS).
As a reserve in 22 mpg: 7.9/3.8/2.4 on 46.9 TS%.
Two starts in 34 mpg: 16.0/6.5/4.5 on 72.1 TS%.
Last year as starter in 33.6 mpg: 15.6/6.4/4.1 on 50.3 TS%.
Spurs with 46 in the 3rd quarter in a failed test. 1-4 in their last 5 games versus playoff teams. I'm telling you guys.....this team is not gelling, improving, or whatever it is you want to call it. The whole is less than the sum of its parts.
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You're right. They go through long stretches where the defense is total ass. Brad can only call so many timeouts. It's infuriating. That third quarter and stretches of the fourth were like layup lines at times. Bad communication, bad effort. Kyrie didn't even make token efforts generally.
We were getting great looks most of the night. Even with some guys shooting poorly, that wasn't the problem. The Spurs were scoring with no resistance whatsoever. It's laughable.
They won't get out of the first round with this level of effort on defense.
We were getting great looks most of the night. Even with some guys shooting poorly, that wasn't the problem. The Spurs were scoring with no resistance whatsoever. It's laughable.
They won't get out of the first round with this level of effort on defense.
First, and most importantly, Happy New Year!
I certainly didn't mean to offend or even attempt to limit discussion with my comment about "discounting the wins". My apologies if I did.
Well, that was prescient. I think I've given up trying to figure out this team this season, and instead just hope they figure it out, because there is no obvious way to improve this roster this season (and little chance this offseason unless Larry Fitzgerald comes up from New Orleans).
Disagree on little chance this offseason. Young assets + tons of picks = shitload of flexibility.
Not trying to figure them out anymore either. They had control of the game and just stopped trying.
Not trying to figure them out anymore either. They had control of the game and just stopped trying.
One of the things that bugs me about this team is that when they start to face adversity - like in the 3Q of the SA game - is that they each decide they are going to be the hero to stop the run as if they can score on anyone at any time. Like in the SA game - and I'm going by memory here because I don't want to waste the time to re-watch the game - SA is hitting wide open 3s and layups and Kyrie takes two tough mid-range jumpers, JT took a tough contested mid-range jumper; JT turned an open 3 off a face break to a side-step 3; JB took a tough fade-away and I think both Al and Theis took early shots: and all of them missed, which meant that SA was going a 10, 12, or 14 point run.
I wish they'd just figure out that they need some easy shots, not some hero shots.
When Brad says that they aren't as good as they think they are, I think this really is the key.
The thing is, there aren't a ton of solutions given the constraints:
-the team can't be a championship contender without Hayward regaining his form, or Brown/Tatum making massive strides
-the team is clearly targeting Davis (or another star, to consolidate the roster)
-none of those targeted trades can happen until there is certainty on pick value or Brown/Rozier increase their value
-Brown won't be traded before the AD situation resolves one way or another
All of this leads to the clear conclusion that we are stuck with this team and this frustration for this season, with the possible exception of Rozier going at the deadline for addition by subtraction (which goes against Ainge's highly successful mo of never losing assets for nothing). It sucks to still be in developmental mode during a season in which we all thought they'd be #2 contender for the title, but Hayward's play and the AD situation don't leave other options.
The only thing that changes this is if Kyrie signals to management that he won't re-sign unless they make a move before the trade deadline. We've seen no hint of this, as he seems to both like Brad's company and enjoy the process of figuring it out (at least more than MBPC does
).
I have recognized this which is what causes my hopeless feeling of this seasons team as a Championship contender.
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…….and Hayward can't regain his form with Brown/Tatum making strides while Kyrie is taking 18 FTA/g (5 more than next on team) which has been my point since the preseason. It's just a horribly designed team which a ton of great individual pieces that don't fit well together and more reps with each other doesn't change that.
I wonder what Ainge's Plan B is if he loses Davis to LA. He's come through at every stop during his tenure here so In Danny We Trust from my seat. I feel Jaylen's value is fine as GM's know his talent and recognize his role decreasing here isn't a product of the player "regressing" only that there are too many mouths to feed at once. Rozier however has little to no trade value as a RFA unless a contender loses their starting PG prior to the deadline and it would likely have to be a WC team for Ainge to find a deal worth making...….I've come to accept that we aren't losing Rozier for nothing next summer as his value o us is as Kyrie insurance this year which cannot be discounted.
But yeah, I agree that we are pretty much stuck with this roster until the Davis situation plays out.
To me, it kind of feels like AD or bust. Horford is winding down as an impact guy. Hayward may never get back there. Tatum isn’t even 21 yet so his prime won’t align with Kyrie’s, which is basically right now. Jaylen is only 22 and is a hard guy to figure out. The SAC and MEM picks are both looking like picks in the 10-18 range and not the high lotto picks we were hoping for. Marcus Morris has been this team’s 2nd best player this year and we are about to lose him for nothing in a few months. Ditto for Rozier.
These superstar situations are hard to forecast but right now, I don’t see any other major impact guys hitting the trade market any time soon, which basically means that change has to come from within if the AD chase fails. That means there will be a ton of pressure on Gordon Hayward to recover from a horrific injury and for Tatum/Brown to turn into legit all-star players. Both things are certainly possible but it’s an uphill battle.
It’s going to be a very interesting year for the franchise.
These superstar situations are hard to forecast but right now, I don’t see any other major impact guys hitting the trade market any time soon, which basically means that change has to come from within if the AD chase fails. That means there will be a ton of pressure on Gordon Hayward to recover from a horrific injury and for Tatum/Brown to turn into legit all-star players. Both things are certainly possible but it’s an uphill battle.
It’s going to be a very interesting year for the franchise.
If you look at the team stats we're really in a very similar place to last year's regular season. Biggest difference is that we're under performing our expected W/L this year, and we over performed last year. Shot distribution is very similar.
I'm actually full of hope, which I know is frowned upon.
I'm actually full of hope, which I know is frowned upon.
As for GH, I'm hoping that he takes the All-Star break off completely to recharge his batteries. I mean he's been doing intense physical rehab or months straight right now and I wouldn't be surprised if his legs were heavy in addition to trying to work his way back.
The most frustrating thing for me is when GH misses wide-open threes (like against SA). I'm sure a lot of it is not knowing what where his legs are physically from night to night.
The most frustrating thing for me is when GH misses wide-open threes (like against SA). I'm sure a lot of it is not knowing what where his legs are physically from night to night.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the player Boston ends up losing for nothing is going to be Horford post-Davis deal. Morris appears to like it here, and it would be unshocking if they asked him to hold off signing until they complete a Davis trade (not that he's going to be one of the day one signings anyway) and then bring him back as a starter.
Given the Irving situation I'm also not sure that they lose Rozier for nothing. The size of the deal Phoenix or Orlando would need to throw at Rozier to pry him away make it a giant risk. When working out a sign & trade deal allows them to save $20 million or so. Especially Phoenix as they have Jackson sitting around collecting bust.
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I am not sure where to find this info, but I would hardly be shocked if most NBA stars have a home in LA
Rich people buy houses in LA. If he buys a house in Cheetnut Hill, that should raise some eyebrows...or at least one.In addition to signing with Klutch sports, AD just bought a big fancy home in the Westgate Village area of LA. I'm not optimistic about getting him.
I kind of hope he does tell N'awlins that he'll only sign an extension with LA, because it would severely reduce the acquisition cost.
I don't think LA is going to let some combination of Ingram, Ball, Kuzma, etc. get in the way of getting AD a year earlier. If AD rejects his extension, it's game on for Magic and he's going to close the deal. The Celtics can beat whatever LA offers but Tatum is the trump card in any bidding war. Is Ainge going to risk Tatum if AD seems to want LA? He didn't seem too interested in even offering up Jaylen for Kawhi. That was probably because he's always had his eyes on AD so maybe his approach is different this time.
A package of Jaylen + won't be getting it done this summer because LA can and will top that. This is going to be tough for Ainge to navigate since all his 2019 picks will need to be made before we know what AD is going to do on his extension unless he publicly says something beforehand.