2018 Tom M-F&^%$ing Brady: Still Proving It

Status
Not open for further replies.

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,559
Here

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Why did he look so good against Miami? He also pops right up on that Titans play, and doesn’t once wince or look down at his knee, so color me skeptical.
I am not arguing with our resident orthopedic surgeon. I was responding to his post.

The risk/reward on that play at that stage of the game in which the Pats were being dominated was asinine.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
That's now at least six interceptions on the season that absolutely should never have happened, after the two yesterday (one through Gronk's hands on a perfect pass, and the other when Burkhead was clearly held and no flag). People with no context are going to look at his passing stats and say, man, he's been pretty bad (for him) this year. Here's his actual passing stat line, and also what it should be assuming that five of the six INTs in question were caught, and the other (the one yesterday to Burkhead) was simply overturned by a properly called defensive penalty:

Actual: 351-537 (65.4%), 4,105 yds, 7.64 y/a, 25 td, 11 int, 95.4 rating
Should be: 356-536 (66.4%), 4,200 yds, 7.84 y/a, 25 td, 5 int, 101.0 rating

I'm not even taking into consideration potential yards and touchdowns he could have had, if some of these passes were caught and not turnovers, because the Pats were marching deep in opposing territory at the time. But still, his "should be" line is much better than his "actual" line, mainly due to these six INTs that never should have been, and weren't Brady's fault. They all count, and that's the way it goes, but when evaluating whether a player is "slipping" simply by looking at his stats...well...the real performance is different than the stat line.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
Brady has a torn meniscus and I won't believe anything else until it's proven otherwise in the offseason
Is there added risk to next season by having Brady continue to play on it right now (and for potentially four more games)?
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,957
Saskatoon Canada
That's now at least six interceptions on the season that absolutely should never have happened, after the two yesterday (one through Gronk's hands on a perfect pass, and the other when Burkhead was clearly held and no flag). People with no context are going to look at his passing stats and say, man, he's been pretty bad (for him) this year. Here's his actual passing stat line, and also what it should be assuming that five of the six INTs in question were caught, and the other (the one yesterday to Burkhead) was simply overturned by a properly called defensive penalty:

Actual: 351-537 (65.4%), 4,105 yds, 7.64 y/a, 25 td, 11 int, 95.4 rating
Should be: 356-536 (66.4%), 4,200 yds, 7.84 y/a, 25 td, 5 int, 101.0 rating

I'm not even taking into consideration potential yards and touchdowns he could have had, if some of these passes were caught and not turnovers, because the Pats were marching deep in opposing territory at the time. But still, his "should be" line is much better than his "actual" line, mainly due to these six INTs that never should have been, and weren't Brady's fault. They all count, and that's the way it goes, but when evaluating whether a player is "slipping" simply by looking at his stats...well...the real performance is different than the stat line.
Have you gone through last year and other past seasons? Have you included balls that defenders should have picked nut dropped?
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,476
Melrose, MA
Chris Hogan was in for 62 snaps and wasn't targeted. Either he can't get open anymore (which is season stats would not suggest) or he's never/rarely the first option and Brady never/rarely reaches his secondary reads. That could potentially be an indicator of Brady injury or decline.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
The INTs are consistent with an uncharacteristic and team-wide problem this year: a lack of focus and discipline. Whether it’s missed tackles, the egregious number of penalties week to week, or INTs going through players’ hands, for the first time since I can remember the Pats’ execution in key moments seems subpar or even just average.

Could Brady’s skipping OTAs have had both a material impact (less chemistry with his receiving corps) and an intangible one (crummier culture around work ethic)? Obviously it’s not the only factor. But to me, the impact of Brady perhaps dialing back his intensity is a likelier read on this particular team-wide problem than “Father Time is catching up to Tom” or “Guys are beginning to tune Bill out.”
 

kartvelo

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2003
10,461
At home
He did flatly state yesterday in the post game that he is not injured and is at 100%.

However, I assume he'd say that even if it were untrue.
 

BostonWolverine

New Member
Dec 6, 2017
109
Ann Arbor, MI
Chris Hogan was in for 62 snaps and wasn't targeted. Either he can't get open anymore (which is season stats would not suggest) or he's never/rarely the first option and Brady never/rarely reaches his secondary reads. That could potentially be an indicator of Brady injury or decline.
I think/hope hogan is taking the amendola role this year. Amendola never had a great regular season here but was obviously huge every year he was in the playoffs. I’m curious if this is by design and they’re trying to limit tape on him.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
Is there added risk to next season by having Brady continue to play on it right now (and for potentially four more games)?
It doesn't make a lot of sense to hold him out and let Brian Hoyer play meaningful games in a year that the Pats are SB contenders, in the hope of preserving his age 42 season.
 

SumnerH

Malt Liquor Picker
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
31,893
Alexandria, VA
Whether it’s missed tackles, the egregious number of penalties week to week, or...
The Patriots have the 3rd fewest penalty yards in the NFL and are tied for the 3rd fewest total penalties.

Going back to 2006 (cutoff point for the stats I could find), the only years they've been ranked better are the Matt Cassell year in 2008 and 2013.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
The Patriots have the 3rd fewest penalty yards in the NFL and are tied for the 3rd fewest total penalties.

Going back to 2006 (cutoff point for the stats I could find), the only years they've been ranked better are the Matt Cassell year in 2008 and 2013.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html
This is getting a bit off-topic and perhaps I should have said “on a week-by-week basis.” Penalties haven’t been a problem for the whole season. Against KC they had no accepted penalties, for instance.

But they’ve been penalized a ton every other game since Thanksgiving. After committing no more than 7 accepted penalties in the first 10 games, in the last 5 they’ve been whistled for 11, 7, 5, 14, and 5 accepted penalties. They have also had several big plays called back and drives stalled because of penalties.

Penalties are only part, not all, of the story about focus and discipline. As I said, they also seem to be periodically beset by poor tackling and dropsies – not to mention uncharacteristic lack of execution in big spots at the end of halves. But penalties have def. been a problem this year, a story the aggregate numbers doesn’t really tell.

Beyond that tho, I’m simply wondering whether Brady’s frustration with the team the last few seasons has at all begun to bleed into work ethic and team culture.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,612
This is getting a bit off-topic and perhaps I should have said “on a week-by-week basis.” Penalties haven’t been a problem for the whole season. Against KC they had no accepted penalties, for instance.

But they’ve been penalized a ton every other game since Thanksgiving. After committing no more than 7 accepted penalties in the first 10 games, in the last 5 they’ve been whistled for 11, 7, 5, 14, and 5 accepted penalties. They have also had several big plays called back and drives stalled because of penalties.

Penalties are only part, not all, of the story about focus and discipline. As I said, they also seem to be periodically beset by poor tackling and dropsies – not to mention uncharacteristic lack of execution in big spots at the end of halves. But penalties have def. been a problem this year, a story the aggregate numbers doesn’t really tell.

Beyond that tho, I’m simply wondering whether Brady’s frustration with the team the last few seasons has at all begun to bleed into work ethic and team culture.
About to have another 11 win season and first round bye.. and you make this argument? That penalties are a sign of lack of work ethic and culture because of TB having a few disagreements? Man. What kind of a leap do you have to make to even start creating that argument?
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
First off, shit your filthy mouth about the first round bye. [emoji6]

Again, there is no lack of reasons for their performance drop off from the last few seasons – skill players are getting older, attrition due to free agency and trade, injury. I’m actually enjoying this season in some ways because if they can pull off a SB appearance it will be with a number of things working against them.

But there is definitely something different about their execution this year and their documented problems on the road and against clearly inferior teams in particular.

Beyond that tho, we’ve spent over a decade extolling the virtues of Brady’s leadership and the impact it’s had on his teammates – and with good reason. It’s fair to ask—ask, not declare—whether his well-publicized disagreements with the team the last two years and skipping workouts in the offseason has had any effect in the other direction.
 

PaulinMyrBch

Don't touch his dog food
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
8,316
MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
Is there added risk to next season by having Brady continue to play on it right now (and for potentially four more games)?
I’m not a doctor, but had meniscus surgery. I don’t believe playing increases the risk of recovery for next year. Surgery for torn meniscus is about cleaning up the frayed pieces so they don’t cause pain. It’s not like repairing a ligament or tendon. It’s strictly a clean up style surgery and recovery is short term.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
So, on a quick glance, it looks like Brady’s numbers were equal to or greater than his numbers from the ‘13 and ‘14 seasons and about on par with last year’s, minus those fluky interceptions.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
So, on a quick glance, it looks like Brady’s numbers were equal to or greater than his numbers from the ‘13 and ‘14 seasons and about on par with last year’s, minus those fluky interceptions.
Yes, but numbers are up. As noted in another thread it’s ok to recognize he didn’t have his best year. Doesn’t mean he’s off the cliff but beyond the numbers it’s easy to see he’s in decline. Which is perfectly expected and fine, he’s still a great qb.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
Yes, but numbers are up. As noted in another thread it’s ok to recognize he didn’t have his best year. Doesn’t mean he’s off the cliff but beyond the numbers it’s easy to see he’s in decline. Which is perfectly expected and fine, he’s still a great qb.
Fair point. It is kind of odd seeing him as around a Top 10 guys statistically instead of Top 3.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Fair point. It is kind of odd seeing him as around a Top 10 guys statistically instead of Top 3.
Agreed. It’s a weird combo. Could just be decline, age, game plan, weapons etc. probably a combo of all of them. But we need to enjoy it while it lasts and I’m 100% behind riding it out and also that when he needs it, he can still bring it for a game or two.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
Agreed. It’s a weird combo. Could just be decline, age, game plan, weapons etc. probably a combo of all of them. But we need to enjoy it while it lasts and I’m 100% behind riding it out and also that when he needs it, he can still bring it for a game or two.
I’m more than happy riding a top 10 QB for another year or two. Especially when some of the guys statistically ahead of him are committed losers like Ryan and Cousins and others have much better weapons around them.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
I’m more than happy riding a top 10 QB for another year or two. Especially when some of the guys statistically ahead of him are committed losers like Ryan and Cousins and others have much better weapons around them.
I’m more than happy riding him until he’s 50. Dude deserves to go out on his own terms.
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
11,257
San Francisco
I am just saying even a slightly declining Brady is still the best the Pats have had.
I agree with the post up thread that he deserves to go out on his on terms, but he is still playing really well.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2015
5,398
I think Brady should be replaced when there is someone else on the roster that gives them a better chance to win. That is what this teams philosophy has been all about, and I would be surprised if Brady himself disagreed.

More than likely Brady will go out on his own terms anyway because it's hard to see the Pats finding someone better in the next few years.
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
11,257
San Francisco
I think Brady should be replaced when there is someone else on the roster that gives them a better chance to win. That is what this teams philosophy has been all about, and I would be surprised if Brady himself disagreed.

More than likely Brady will go out on his own terms anyway because it's hard to see the Pats finding someone better in the next few years.
You said it much better than I did.
My other point was the Pats have not had the guy better than Brady yet.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
My wife and I are, but we don’t count.

Most 49ers fans still think Jimmy is amazing. He is a really good young QB, but he definitely didn’t play well at all this year before he got hurt.
But he’s good looking!

Edit: damn you PP. Get your own QB crush.
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
11,257
San Francisco
Haha. Don’t blame you.
People that like dogs get bonus points in my household.
Back on topic, Pats and Brady played great today and I am hopeful for another trip to the SB or at least the AFC Championship Game.
 

DukeSox

absence hasn't made the heart grow fonder
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2005
11,742
Small dog. Would not give peanut butter.
From a spoon or from...

Brady showed today why he gets to continue calling the shots for as long as he wishes. Most teams are bad and he shredded a bad team. That will get you 11-5 most years which earns you a playoff lottery ticket. He can probably keep this
up till he’s 50. Half the teams have a crap QB that was a first round pick but can’t move the ball.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
So...this seems to be a thing...

All of the guys in my life (and myself) think that he's handsome.

But all of the women in my life think that he's not.

Is Tom Brady a man's man?
I’ve thought a little about this. I think guys tend to think guys who are very pretty/symmetrical are handsome. Like I think Matt Bomer, Jimmy, whatever. But women seem to prefer men with slightly more rugged or distinctive faces. Obviously, not across the board. But just more often than not from what I’ve seen.
 

Hoya81

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 3, 2010
8,457
Fair point. It is kind of odd seeing him as around a Top 10 guys statistically instead of Top 3.
Going back and looking at pre-2007 Brady’s passing stats is always a bit of a shock for how unremarkable they were, even before they started loosening the rules for offenses. Only 23 TD passes in 2003!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.