Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

joe dokes

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I believe the theory on Robertson is that his effective velocity is really more like 95ish because he releases the ball a foot closer to the plate than the average pitcher given his legendary stride. Not Kelly's 100, of course, but far more deceptive.

Robertson only worries me because he's been incredibly effective for an nearly unprecedented length of time that has to come to an end and he seems likely to get a long-ish deal.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I believe the theory on Robertson is that his effective velocity is really more like 95ish because he releases the ball a foot closer to the plate than the average pitcher given his legendary stride. Not Kelly's 100, of course, but far more deceptive.
Well, also, he's throwing a cutter. A 93-mph cutter is not the same as a 93-mph 4-seamer.
 

sean1562

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Kelly was great in the playoffs but he has always had these stretches of dominance. He was a pretty fungible pitcher last year and I would much rather see that money dedicated to an Ottavino or Britton than Kelly
 

DeadlySplitter

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sign Ottavino

find the next Hembree who might be decent for really cheap, and cut bait with Hembree

go to war in 2019
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I’m a big Kelvin Herrera fan, as he’s demonstrated real dominance in the AL for years. If his medical check out, I think he’d be a great option.

Edit: too rushed to pull up some numbers just now, but i’ll Follow up.
 

YTF

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I like Herrera as well and he's just 29 years old. His time in D.C. last season didn't go great though landing on the D.L. twice. Once with a right rotator cuff impingement and then with a torn Linsfranc ligament in his left foot that ended his season. Perhaps that keeps his price down, but yeah, the medicals are going to need to check out.
 

chawson

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Something about Herrera scares me. He still throws hard but there's a lot of innings on that arm and he's not a particularly big guy (5'10"). I admittedly haven't done a ton of extensive research on this, but it seems like guys who can sustain throwing 96 into their thirties are a lot bigger. Greg Holland's another guy around the same size who experienced velocity/effectiveness loss a couple years ago.

Some off-the-radar trade candidates I like (making some $ on go-nowhere teams) include David Hernandez (CIN), Andrew Chafin (ARI), Drew VerHagen (DET), Hector Neris (PHI), and obviously Will Smith (SFG). Neris in particular is intriguing. The Phillies are obviously going for it, but they have a ridiculously crowded bullpen (Dominguez, Neshek, Hunter, Alvarez, Ramos, Neris, Nicasio, Morgan, Pazos, Garcia, Davis, Rios, De Los Santos, et al.) that includes a few unmovable contracts. Neris had a longball problem, but a higher swinging strike rate than Josh Hader.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Kinda off topic, but do bullpen arms benefit the most from the current economic structure of baseball? If young players were getting paid what they are worth, bullpen arms wouldn't get jack. The league average payroll was $140 mil in 2018.

I've always been against giving bullpen arms big money. If I were the GM, I'd just sign a bunch of cheap bullpen arms and see what sticks and go with Barnes as the closer. It seems like every year around the MLB there are tons of very good bullpen arms who come from nowhere. Then again, the Sox haven't been particularly good in developing pitchers. And up until recently, they were very slow converting minor league SPs into bullpen arms but they have been more aggressive in the last few years. They are still somewhat gun shy trying their AAA pitchers in a big league role though. Not so much this year because there weren't any really standouts outside of Brasier and Buttrey. Brasier was called up and the latter probably would have been called up to Boston had he not been traded.

I'll be interested to see who they sign and how many they sign. What % of the payroll should be allotted to the bullpen? Last year, they spend about $22-23 mil on the pen which is a lot less than I thought. Right now, it's at about $5 mil.
 

chawson

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Kinda off topic, but do bullpen arms benefit the most from the current economic structure of baseball? If young players were getting paid what they are worth, bullpen arms wouldn't get jack. The league average payroll was $140 mil in 2018.

I've always been against giving bullpen arms big money. If I were the GM, I'd just sign a bunch of cheap bullpen arms and see what sticks and go with Barnes as the closer. It seems like every year around the MLB there are tons of very good bullpen arms who come from nowhere. Then again, the Sox haven't been particularly good in developing pitchers. And up until recently, they were very slow converting minor league SPs into bullpen arms but they have been more aggressive in the last few years. They are still somewhat gun shy trying their AAA pitchers in a big league role though. Not so much this year because there weren't any really standouts outside of Brasier and Buttrey. Brasier was called up and the latter probably would have been called up to Boston had he not been traded.

I'll be interested to see who they sign and how many they sign. What % of the payroll should be allotted to the bullpen? Last year, they spend about $22-23 mil on the pen which is a lot less than I thought. Right now, it's at about $5 mil.
I've thought they benefit the least. It's much more likely a bullpen guy loses velocity and effectiveness over his 6-7 years of major league team control than a comparably productive position player. Guys like Thornburg, Carson Smith, Devenski, Brad Brach, AJ Ramos each had dominant seasons over the last few years and likely won't get huge contracts because they've already hit a wall.

Expanded international scouting seems to also play a factor in this. There's a greater labor supply of guys who can pump it in at 95+ mph, so teams don't need to worry as much about chasing their own into their declining years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I've thought they benefit the least. It's much more likely a bullpen guy loses velocity and effectiveness over his 6-7 years of major league team control than a comparably productive position player. Guys like Thornburg, Carson Smith, Devenski, Brad Brach, AJ Ramos each had dominant seasons over the last few years and likely won't get huge contracts because they've already hit a wall.

Expanded international scouting seems to also play a factor in this. There's a greater labor supply of guys who can pump it in at 95+ mph, so teams don't need to worry as much about chasing their own into their declining years.
They probably do benefit the least among players under control. I think they benefit the most as FA, if they can make it that far.

The average player in 2018 made $4.5 million a year. If that figure mostly stayed the same and a guy like Ben10 made $8-10 mil last year instead of 600k, there is no way Joe Kelly would make $8 mil a year. He'd probably be making 1 or 2.

Maybe I just undervalue bullpen arms in general. A bullpen arm worth 3 WAR is much harder to find than a positional player worth the same so they probably deserve extra.
 

Pozo the Clown

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...Robertson, Britton, Ottavino. Get two of them and call it an offseason.
I'd really like to see them add Britton. Given health and a full Spring Training I could see him improve over his shortened season last year. He'll probably never get back to his 2016 peak (which was other-worldly great).

A lefty with a heavy sinker would be very dissimilar to the other current members of the Sox pen and a really nice addition IMO. He's probably looking for more $$$ than the Sox are willing to spend, so it's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
 

BaseballJones

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Looks like the Sox are going to go cheap with the bullpen to start the year.

If their offense is elite, and their rotation is healthy and performing up to expected standards, they probably can get away with a so-so bullpen and still win a lot of games. Because they are loaded in terms of offense, defense, and starting pitching.

You'd just hate to have that one area that's not as strong come back and bite them too many times.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If their offense is elite, and their rotation is healthy and performing up to expected standards, they probably can get away with a so-so bullpen and still win a lot of games. Because they are loaded in terms of offense, defense, and starting pitching.

You'd just hate to have that one area that's not as strong come back and bite them too many times.
Sound an awful lot like the 2018 team.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I don't ever remember a DD smokescreen. It's incredibly candid to the point where you can almost book that when he says something, that's what he is going to do.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but didn't he smokescreen the Chris Sale trade?
I think the Chris Sale trade is something that came together really quickly and wasn't a true "We are going to get another starter" scenario if I remember correctly.

Usually DD is incredible forward. If he says he needs a 4th outfielder, a reliever, and a first baseman, well he goes and gets a 4th outfielder, a reliever, and a first baseman. I fully expect the Red Sox to add a couple cheaper "flier" arms, but at this point after hearing him I think you can cross out the high ticket arms.
 

Cesar Crespo

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DD said on a Monday that the Redsox didn't feel compelled to acquire a SP and on Friday traded for Sale. Whether that's a smokescreen or not, I dunno. He didn't outright say no to Chris Sale.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
"Don't feel compelled to" =/= "won't".

You can be straightforward and truthful and still choose your words carefully. In fact the ability to do both seems kind of fundamental for someone who negotiates for a living. Theo always seemed pretty good at it, and so does DD.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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DD said on a Monday that the Redsox didn't feel compelled to acquire a SP and on Friday traded for Sale. Whether that's a smokescreen or not, I dunno. He didn't outright say no to Chris Sale.
For the price, he couldn't say no to Chris Sale. Sometimes things fall in your lap that you have to move on even if it isn't something you even knew you wanted, or needed.

I'm fine with going the "cheap" route with the bullpen. If you look at last year's pen, the only key pieces that were a *big* acquisition (on par with a FA signing like Robertson or Britton) was Kimbrel and, depending on your point of view, Kelly. Everyone else was homegrown (Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Poyner), scrap-pile/minor league signings (Brasier, Velazquez), acquired for low cost/low expectation (Hembree, Wright).

If they like Barnes and Brasier as the lynchpin high leverage guys, at least to start the year, nothing wrong with backfilling the pen with fliers and youngsters.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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The quote and Silverman's analysis are both pretty vague. "No big expenditures" isn't the same thing as "going cheap." When Dombrowski first made those remarks, he was talking about Kimbrel; it's entirely possible that's all he means.
 
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nvalvo

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It's conceivable that DD is bullish on some of our low minors prospects gaining value in the first half, and aims to fill out the bullpen mid-season through trades.

It's not a bad plan.
 

MikeM

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It's conceivable that DD is bullish on some of our low minors prospects gaining value in the first half, and aims to fill out the bullpen mid-season through trades.

It's not a bad plan.
Or that DD isn't particular in love with any one of outside guys out there, would ideally prefer re-signing Kimbrel over all of them if he ends up getting market squeezed, and is just content to basically wait the current landscape out for now.

Still guessing he grabs at least the one body this winter while all it takes is cash. Standing pat minus both Kimbrel/Kelly this go round, and planning to trade latter for outside help if needed while still handicapped with the same lack of competitive trade bait issue we speculated to death last year, seems like a fairly poor overall approach to the situation imo.
 

TheoShmeo

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There's a big difference between paying for the high end of the market (Kimbrel) and standing pat/going cheap. My bet is that DD will take the middle road and sign someone like Robertsen. Having a high performance engine and using only regular gasoline (clumsy analogy but you get the point) would not be his style or that of his employers. This team needs a reliable closer and I doubt that it will be content to roll the dice with Barnes or Brasier. One indication of that is how they were used in the post season. While both did see action, neither was consistently used in the 8th. Kelly was clearly ahead of them on the depth chart. To think that they will dip to them now for a role that neither has fulfilled in the majors with a team as talented as this seems unlikely to me as a result.

I hope I'm right!
 

Cesar Crespo

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There's a big difference between paying for the high end of the market (Kimbrel) and standing pat/going cheap. My bet is that DD will take the middle road and sign someone like Robertsen. Having a high performance engine and using only regular gasoline (clumsy analogy but you get the point) would not be his style or that of his employers. This team needs a reliable closer and I doubt that it will be content to roll the dice with Barnes or Brasier. One indication of that is how they were used in the post season. While both did see action, neither was consistently used in the 8th. Kelly was clearly ahead of them on the depth chart. To think that they will dip to them now for a role that neither has fulfilled in the majors with a team as talented as this seems unlikely to me as a result.

I hope I'm right!

They were pitching to rows in the playoffs, not inning. The fact Barnes wasn't coming in the 8th had everything to do with the middle of the lineup coming up in the 7th.

Outside of Kimbrel, anyway.
 

joe dokes

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There's a big difference between paying for the high end of the market (Kimbrel) and standing pat/going cheap. My bet is that DD will take the middle road and sign someone like Robertsen. Having a high performance engine and using only regular gasoline (clumsy analogy but you get the point) would not be his style or that of his employers. This team needs a reliable closer and I doubt that it will be content to roll the dice with Barnes or Brasier. One indication of that is how they were used in the post season. While both did see action, neither was consistently used in the 8th. Kelly was clearly ahead of them on the depth chart. To think that they will dip to them now for a role that neither has fulfilled in the majors with a team as talented as this seems unlikely to me as a result.

I hope I'm right!

The opposite of Kimbrel is not "standing pat/going cheap."
And as bosox79 pointed out, the usage in the post season says nothing.

There's nothing "rolling the dice" about Barnes. It's like people can only remember the 5 games he fucked up, not the 65 he didn't. Fortunately, no one is saying, "Betts made like 300 outs last year, can't count on him."

Robertson will end up nowhere near the "middle of the road."

There is plenty of relief pitching available, even if those pitchers don't come with the certified closer label.
 

TheoShmeo

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The opposite of Kimbrel is not "standing pat/going cheap."
And as bosox79 pointed out, the usage in the post season says nothing.

There's nothing "rolling the dice" about Barnes. It's like people can only remember the 5 games he fucked up, not the 65 he didn't. Fortunately, no one is saying, "Betts made like 300 outs last year, can't count on him."

Robertson will end up nowhere near the "middle of the road."

There is plenty of relief pitching available, even if those pitchers don't come with the certified closer label.
That's fine but I still don't see Barnes or Brasier in the closer role. They'll bring in someone more accomplished and let Barners and Brasier do what they do well.

My point wasn't so much pinned on Robertsen per se. They will sign someone with closer experience who costs less per year and requires less years than Kimbrel.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
There is plenty of relief pitching available, even if those pitchers don't come with the certified closer label.
One thing that's complicating the situation is that this statement is debatable, at least as regards FAs and depending on how you view Miller and Ottavino. There's a big gap in the middle tier this year; leaving aside the already signed guys, you have Kimbrel, Robertson, Miller, Ottavino, and Britton, and then it takes a pretty fast tumble. In many years there's a sizable group of more or less reliable, mid-career 7th-8th inning types available, but this is not one of those years. I agree that reloading with a budget middle-inning arm or two is the smart play, but finding that guy may not be as easy as it sounds.

That's fine but I still don't see Barnes or Brasier in the closer role. They'll bring in someone more accomplished and let Barners and Brasier do what they do well.
What Brasier and Barnes do well is pitch. Which also happens to be what closers do. This "horses for courses" idea about relief pitchers is way overblown.
 

TheoShmeo

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They were pitching to rows in the playoffs, not inning. The fact Barnes wasn't coming in the 8th had everything to do with the middle of the lineup coming up in the 7th.

Outside of Kimbrel, anyway.
Point remains the same. Brasier and Barnes were lower seeded than Kelly (and the rovers). I don't see them dipping into their row at this point for the closer role.

We shall see.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Point remains the same. Brasier and Barnes were lower seeded than Kelly (and the rovers). ...
Is this point accurate? We'd have to go back and look game-by-game, but I thought Cora used Barnes as a quasi-relief ace in the playoffs. He seemed to be the guy who came in mid-game, mid-inning, to face the heart of the order. WS game 1 is a good example. Sale walks Dozier to lead off the 5th in a 1-run game, and Barnes came in to face Turner/Freese/Machado/Bellinger (he gave up a run, but hey, we're talking usage, not effectiveness!). Kelly came in to start the 6th, with a clean slate, facing 6-7-8. I don't think that means Barnes was "lower seeded" than Kelly.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Is this point accurate? We'd have to go back and look game-by-game, but I thought Cora used Barnes as a quasi-relief ace in the playoffs. He seemed to be the guy who came in mid-game, mid-inning, to face the heart of the order. WS game 1 is a good example. Sale walks Dozier to lead off the 5th in a 1-run game, and Barnes came in to face Turner/Freese/Machado/Bellinger (he gave up a run, but hey, we're talking usage, not effectiveness!). Kelly came in to start the 6th, with a clean slate, facing 6-7-8. I don't think that means Barnes was "lower seeded" than Kelly.
Barnes was absolutely not lower seeded. In fact I'd argue that he was the "go to" guy before the 8th. There was a clear philosophy of going to him in the toughest stretches, use the rovers in the 8th, and Kimbrel in the 9th. Kelly really didn't even become "Joe F'n Kelly" until the World Series as far as tight spots go if I remember correctly.

I'd even argue that Braiser was used before Kelly for the vast majority of the playoffs.
 

joe dokes

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One thing that's complicating the situation is that this statement is debatable, at least as regards FAs and depending on how you view Miller and Ottavino. There's a big gap in the middle tier this year; leaving aside the already signed guys, you have Kimbrel, Robertson, Miller, Ottavino, and Britton, and then it takes a pretty fast tumble. In many years there's a sizable group of more or less reliable, mid-career 7th-8th inning types available, but this is not one of those years. I agree that reloading with a budget middle-inning arm or two is the smart play, but finding that guy may not be as easy as it sounds.
Fair point. I'm skeptical of Miller's health. I also didn't realize that Ottavino is older than Britton. As always there will be be relief surprises. The only way to avoid that is to spend big $$$ on "proven commodities," ("Jim Johnson has closer experience....") which is almost as much of a guarantee of dead money as it is a guarantee of success, given reliever volatility. That's why I think the bolded is correct.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Barnes was absolutely not lower seeded. In fact I'd argue that he was the "go to" guy before the 8th. There was a clear philosophy of going to him in the toughest stretches, use the rovers in the 8th, and Kimbrel in the 9th. Kelly really didn't even become "Joe F'n Kelly" until the World Series as far as tight spots go if I remember correctly.

I'd even argue that Braiser was used before Kelly for the vast majority of the playoffs.
Barnes was generally used against the teeth of the lineup and/or to put out fires. In reverse order, his usage in the post-season:

WS Game 4 - 6th inning against 7-8 in the lineup (warming and ready when E-Rod gave up the HR to Puig)
WS Game 3 - 8th inning against 1-2-3-4 (game tied)
WS Game 1 - 5th inning against 1-2-3-4 (game tied)
ALCS Game 5 - 7th inning against 4-5-6-7 in the lineup (up 4)
ALCS Game 4 - 7th inning against 8 hitter (2 outs, 2nd and 3rd, up 2)
ALCS Game 3 - 8th inning against 4-5-6 (up 8-2)
ALCS Game 2 - 5th inning against 6 hitter (2 on, 2 out, down 1), stayed in to face 7-8-9 in the 6th.
ALCS Game 1 - 7th inning against 9-1-2-3-4 (down 1)
ALDS Game 4 - 6th inning against 2-3-4 (up 3)
ALDS Game 1 - 7th inning against 3-4-5-6 (0 outs, 2 on, up 3)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Barnes was generally used against the teeth of the lineup and/or to put out fires. In reverse order, his usage in the post-season:

WS Game 4 - 6th inning against 7-8 in the lineup (warming and ready when E-Rod gave up the HR to Puig)
WS Game 3 - 8th inning against 1-2-3-4 (game tied)
WS Game 1 - 5th inning against 1-2-3-4 (game tied)
ALCS Game 5 - 7th inning against 4-5-6-7 in the lineup (up 4)
ALCS Game 4 - 7th inning against 8 hitter (2 outs, 2nd and 3rd, up 2)
ALCS Game 3 - 8th inning against 4-5-6 (up 8-2)
ALCS Game 2 - 5th inning against 6 hitter (2 on, 2 out, down 1), stayed in to face 7-8-9 in the 6th.
ALCS Game 1 - 7th inning against 9-1-2-3-4 (down 1)
ALDS Game 4 - 6th inning against 2-3-4 (up 3)
ALDS Game 1 - 7th inning against 3-4-5-6 (0 outs, 2 on, up 3)
Do you have the same for Kelly?
 

SouthernBoSox

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I think Feltmen and Lakins are good bets to be with the big club pretty quickly, especially Lakins. Poyner is going to get his shot, but he certainly seems more like a really solid middle reliever rather than someone to count on for big outs.

I really think they want to see what they have in Thornburg, who if really healthy could solve much of the concern, and Colten Brewer, who's stuff plays as much as any reliever. There is also the possibility of Wright getting some run. He looked really good out of the pen at the end of the season.

The more I think about it the more I see them signing 1-2 fliers and see where the rest settles out. This board has clamored for years about the volatility of bullpen arms and how using major resources on it is usually a bad bet. Looks like we might get what we wished for.
 

Plympton91

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What Brasier and Barnes do well is pitch. Which also happens to be what closers do. This "horses for courses" idea about relief pitchers is way overblown.
Gray Eagle made a great post earlier in this thread listing out numerous very concrete and tangible reasons the 9th inning is harder than the 8th or 7th, holding constant the quality of the hitters obviously. You seem to have missed it or discounted it. If the latter, why? What can be disagreed with?

More broadly, the Res Sox were linked to ottavino by every reputable baseball writer at the winter meetings. I don’t think they’d be talking to him unless they’re prepared to go at least as high as The Kelly/Familia contracts. That level should be fine to get a quality closer and a companion middle reliever. Dombrowski is just saying they aren’t meeting Kimbrel’s asking price, and they aren’t going to overpay for the next tier either, I wouldn’t read into it that they are just shopping at the Dollar Store though.