2018-19 Offseason Thread

Papelbon's Poutine

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Syndergaard is estimated to make $5.9M in 2019. In his "third year of arb" as you say — which is misleading because he's got another immensely valuable year of team control after that — he'd probably make $10-12M if he stays healthy. It also doesn't really matter, because he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball if he's healthy. He made $3M last season and was worth $30M in surplus value despite pitching 150 innings.

"Robbing Peter to pay Paul" is pithy cliche but it's inaccurate here. I like the idea of trading the cheap outfielder because although his production is valuable, that value is something we're more able to pay for while other teams can't, and more able to develop relative to our other needs. Syndergaard+Gonzalez or +Pollock or, hell, even +Markakis is more valuable than Benintendi+Porcello, and it'd be a smart move to have Syndergaard under contract through 2021 so we don't have to drop $150M on Sale/Cole/Bumgarner next offseason.
I don’t believe I talked about 2019. I’m talking about 2020 which is what you cited. Markakis? Really? He’ll be 36. There’s no need to worry about 2020 rotation right now to the expense of the cheap pre FA guys they have. And I don’t think Porcello is coming back either way. But sure, trade away the cheap guys when they need to pay like seven people coming forward.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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As a pure thought exercise, who would be interested in a year of Xander? Milwaukee? Mets, if they move Rosario? Nationals could switch Turner back to the outfield, maybe? They’re not going to trade him to the team with the most glaring need for a short-term shortstop... Cubs and Braves in theory, I guess, but I’m skeptical.
Yankees.

/ducks
 

BaseballJones

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Benintendi is the best value. Easily. Given Thor’s injury issues I’d go with him being the most desirable piece. Not worth moving him.

Now if you do Xander and Porcello for Thor? Then that’s something to listen to. Maybe the Mets throw in Todd Frazier or someone then you spin Frazier for a SS or RP.
Frazier won't get you anything of value. But you could sign Marwin Gonzalez and have him play SS (dude can play anywhere). Or just frigging blow the luxury tax out of the water and trade Xander and Porcello for Thor and then sign....gulp....Machado. :)

But realistically, I don't see the Sox involved in this at all. But I could be surprised, obviously.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Frazier won't get you anything of value. But you could sign Marwin Gonzalez and have him play SS (dude can play anywhere). Or just frigging blow the luxury tax out of the water and trade Xander and Porcello for Thor and then sign....gulp....Machado. :)

But realistically, I don't see the Sox involved in this at all. But I could be surprised, obviously.
If they're blowing the luxury tax out of the water, aren't they better off just keeping Porcello and Bogaerts and trying to extend them?
 

RoDaddy

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Can I throw out an unlikely wild possibility - that we try to sign Harper if reports that Boras has overvalued his market and he can be had for the Nationals offer...AND trade Porcello and JD and maybe others to clear salary space? Porcello and JD alone would clear 44 mil, much more than the 30 mil/year the Nationals offered for Harper. This would also lock in a young slugger for a long time as opposed to the uncertain JD salary and status with the Sox, not to mention he's much older (31) with some injury issues. We all love JD but this would be a hella gutsy move with an eye on the future
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Can I throw out an unlikely wild possibility - that we try to sign Harper if reports that Boras has overvalued his market and he can be had for the Nationals offer...AND trade Porcello and JD and maybe others to clear salary space? Porcello and JD alone would clear 44 mil, much more than the 30 mil/year the Nationals offered for Harper. This would also lock in a young slugger for a long time as opposed to the uncertain JD salary and status with the Sox, not to mention he's much older (31) with some injury issues. We all love JD but this would be a hella gutsy move with an eye on the future
Well, I mean, you can... I’m not sure why though?
 

chawson

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D-Backs have RHP Jon Duplantier and OF Kristian Robinson in the Top 100 prospects, and if they're rebuilding I doubt they're available. I would be interested in some combination of Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, Nick Ahmed, and Alex Avila, though.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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D-Backs have RHP Jon Duplantier and OF Kristian Robinson in the Top 100 prospects, and if they're rebuilding I doubt they're available. I would be interested in some combination of Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, Nick Ahmed, and Alex Avila, though.
Archie Bradley and Robbie Ray are interesting. If DD can somehow pull off that theft then statues will be built.
 

moondog80

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Any D-Backs deal would have to involve a net gain in years of control for them, right? So where is the fit with 2 years of JBJ?
 

Dewey'sCannon

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If they are talking Bradley and Porcello, how about Bradley, Porcello and Chavis for Syndergaard? Getting Bradley lets the Mets include Nimmo in a deal for Realmuto, and Porcello gives them a replacement in the rotation (and maybe they flip Chavis in the Realmuto deal).
 

BaseballJones

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If they are talking Bradley and Porcello, how about Bradley, Porcello and Chavis for Syndergaard? Getting Bradley lets the Mets include Nimmo in a deal for Realmuto, and Porcello gives them a replacement in the rotation (and maybe they flip Chavis in the Realmuto deal).
Who plays center?
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Gammons: Red Sox may talk about trading some of those guys, but this is their last year. This is the window this year. Winning is really important. Not going in big for relief pitchers. Barnes at the end and get a couple guys who can pitch anywhere. Team believes strongly in JBJ’s final months, expecting big season from Rodriquez. They love Ottavino. This is the all in year.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Gammons: Red Sox may talk about trading some of those guys, but this is their last year. This is the window this year. Winning is really important. Not going in big for relief pitchers. Barnes at the end and get a couple guys who can pitch anywhere. Team believes strongly in JBJ’s final months, expecting big season from Rodriquez. They love Ottavino. This is the all in year.
This sounds like Miller, although a few other could be that guy too I suppose.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Gammons kind of contradicted himself by saying they wouldn’t go in big for relief pitchers but later followed it up by adding the team really likes Ottavino and Robertson.
 

Devizier

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Sox shed about $22m in salary. Obviously offset by Syndergaard's pay (which isn't much), and the cost of Gonzalez' FA contract (can't imagine it will be much more than like $13m a year). So a net savings of maybe $8-9 million. Gonzalez isn't as good as Benintendi, but he's perfectly adequate. Syndergaard could be a major step up for the Sox in the rotation, and he's under control for several more years. And the money savings could go towards another quality reliever. Plus they pick up a good prospect as well.
Assuming the feasibility of this plan, here are the 2019 fWAR projections of the listed players:

Porcello +2.6 fWAR
Benintendi +3.6 fWAR
Gonzalez +1.6 fWAR
Syndergaard +3.6 fWAR

Just from that unbiased projection the Sox would drop a win from their current roster while increasing the roster age and injury risk.
 

Sox Puppet

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Betts or Benintendi. I've always thought that having a guy capable of CF at LF in Fenway for 81 games was a slight inefficiency, so converting JBJ's value into something else does make some sense.
Or, would it be crazy to consider Rusney at center and everything else the same?

Not saying that I want this to happen, but at least it might represent a better allocation of $.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Or, would it be crazy to consider Rusney at center and everything else the same?

Not saying that I want this to happen, but at least it might represent a better allocation of $.
That would cause his $12 mil to count against the cap. It would defeat the purpose. Lin would probably be a better option in CF anyway.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Just saw a Cora interview where he revealed that they’ll be batting Andrew Benintendi leadoff next season, with Mookie moving into the two spot.

He then went on to say that if Pedroia is ready to go, he’ll be the leadoff guy.

Not a fan of 35 year old Pedroia clogging up the base paths for Benny/Mookie/X... I have to imagine that would be a short lived experiment...
 

moondog80

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Just saw a Cora interview where he revealed that they’ll be batting Andrew Benintendi leadoff next season, with Mookie moving into the two spot.

He then went on to say that if Pedroia is ready to go, he’ll be the leadoff guy.

Not a fan of 35 year old Pedroia clogging up the base paths for Benny/Mookie/X... I have to imagine that would be a short lived experiment...
Clogging up the base paths? Does his mean that Betts will have some would-be doubles turned into singles because Pedroia will be on first and can only move one base at a time? When did Eddie Andleman get an account here?
 

DJnVa

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Just saw a Cora interview where he revealed that they’ll be batting Andrew Benintendi leadoff next season, with Mookie moving into the two spot.

He then went on to say that if Pedroia is ready to go, he’ll be the leadoff guy.
I didn't see this interview, but wasn't the Pedroia stuff that he'll bat lead-off on opening day, but that's it?
 

nattysez

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Gorkys is a solid 5th OF, but things will have gone seriously awry if he gets any serious major league playing time. It's interesting that he jumped at a minor league offer. The SF Chron had suggested this morning that the Giants were open to bringing him back depending on how their off-season went.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Interesting pick-up on the same day that teams are reporting that Sox are listening to offers on JBJ.
???

Yes, I'm sure that signing the great Gorkys Hernandez to a minor league deal is just the thing they needed to do to free themselves up to trade JBJ. It's a depth signing. Nothing more. It's about as meaningful as the Adam Lind or Brandon Phillips signings last season.
 

nvalvo

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Gorkys is a nice player to stash in AAA. He’s not a starting caliber CF for a team with championship aspirations.

If he gets more than 30 PA on the 2019 club, something’s gone very wrong.
 

moondog80

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I don't think they envision Gorkys as a starter, but maybe a trade of JBJ would mean they want a CF on the bench?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Gammons: Red Sox may talk about trading some of those guys, but this is their last year. This is the window this year. Winning is really important. Not going in big for relief pitchers. Barnes at the end and get a couple guys who can pitch anywhere. Team believes strongly in JBJ’s final months, expecting big season from Rodriquez. They love Ottavino. This is the all in year.
Yes, because the success-starved fans can't be expected to hang on much longer without a title.
 

YTF

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Yes, because the success-starved fans can't be expected to hang on much longer without a title.
Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or not, but given that the roster looks to be largely the same this season and will likely have more turnover in 2020, there is a bit of a window here. I might also add that winning is really important to a franchise who has such a large payroll and is so high profile. With a few tweeks, this team should be in GFIN mode.
 

joe dokes

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Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or not, but given that the roster looks to be largely the same this season and will likely have more turnover in 2020, there is a bit of a window here. I might also add that winning is really important to a franchise who has such a large payroll and is so high profile. With a few tweeks, this team should be in GFIN mode.
Yes, there is a bit of a window. But its not a window that's going to be shut after this year. Unlike, for example, KC, "not able to keep everybody" doesn't mean "get rid of everybody."
"GFIN" means different things to different people, so I thinks it's not terribly useful.
 

YTF

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By no means will the window shut after the 2019 season, but it's safe to say that it may not be as open as it is now. Porcello and Sale may be gone and Martinez could opt out. That could bring new and more exciting possibilities, but that's all unknown. As of now we know what is on the roster and what they are capable of.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I didn't see this interview, but wasn't the Pedroia stuff that he'll bat lead-off on opening day, but that's it?
This is correct... opening day lead off as a reward for years of meritorious service and completing a tough rehab, but you’re not taking Beni/Betts off the top of the order regularly unless something goes horribly wrong.

Similarly, JDM will be opting out next year unless something goes horribly wrong. So I’m in the camp that 2019 is a window year. With Sale, JDM, Porcello, and Bogaerts to reup in 2020, the Sox are unlikely to be so elite tha year. I’m sure they’ll spend money and still be very very good...but 2019 is a much better bet.

Edit...less portentous, but Moreland, Pearce, Holt and a cast of significant non-Stars need to be addressed in 2020 too. So GFIN
 
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