Celtics in 18-19

reggiecleveland

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Seems like Kyrie, Tatum, Brown are not as effective driving this year. I am not convinced Kyrie is the guy he was last year before his injury. It may be that simple. Maybe the timing is off, chemistry is messed up, but they are not getting to the paint like last year.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Seems like Kyrie, Tatum, Brown are not as effective driving this year. I am not convinced Kyrie is the guy he was last year before his injury. It may be that simple. Maybe the timing is off, chemistry is messed up, but they are not getting to the paint like last year.
Curious what you're basing this on re: Kyrie. He certainly started slow but has come on very strong of late.
 

reggiecleveland

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Curious what you're basing this on re: Kyrie. He certainly started slow but has come on very strong of late.
It was from watching games but I saw this on the C's own page.
https://www.nba.com/celtics/news/post-ups

Brown is about the same it seems, but Kyrie and Tatum are down. They don't get much in the paint and what they did gt was mostly from Kyrie and Tatum last year.

Certainly, Boston has plenty of players who can put pressure on the defense off the bounce. Kyrie Irving is one of the best in the league in that area, and he averaged 11.6 driver per game last season. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown averaged 10.1 and 6.1 drives per game, respectively, last postseason. This season, Irving’s average has dropped to 7.7 per game, and Tatum and Brown have each dropped to 5.8 per game
.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Down 25-10 late 1st coming off two losses in Phoenix. Brad has his work cut out for him here.

20 points midway through the 2nd quarter. This is precisely what this team and/or Ainge needed! How this team responds in the 2nd half and/or tomorrow night in Utah will tell us all everything we need to know about this team.

Fortunately we have the worlds greatest coach to put the ball in the basket. ;)
 
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HowBoutDemSox

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Some stats backing up the eye test:
So how is this happening? Much of it can be derived from a look at Boston's shot chart, which is at least partially out of step with the way the modern game is being played. While the Celtics are getting up plenty of 3-point attempts -- Boston is third in the league, behind only the Houston Rockets and Bucks, in attempted 3s per game -- they are dead last in shot attempts in the restricted area and points in the paint, 29th in free throws attempted per game and 27th in shot attempts in the paint per game. Meanwhile, they are averaging the fifth-most shot attempts from midrange (20 per game) and are making just 35 percent of them.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25209864/boston-celtics-not-concerned-sluggish-offense-first-10-games-season
 

Red Averages

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Down 25-10 late 1st coming off two losses in Phoenix. Brad has his work cut out for him here.

20 points midway through the 2nd quarter. This is precisely what this team and/or Ainge needed! How this team responds in the 2nd half and/or tomorrow night in Utah will tell us all everything we need to know about this team.

Fortunately we have the worlds greatest coach to put the ball in the basket. ;)
Well played.

I agree- this was a wake up call game to test for resilience and they came through it extremely well. With no Kyrie tonight, I expect a bit of a "next man up" mentality that they seemed to carry last year. Hopefully it shows them someone else needs to be aggressive creating.... which sets them up for a nice run over the next few months.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well played.

I agree- this was a wake up call game to test for resilience and they came through it extremely well. With no Kyrie tonight, I expect a bit of a "next man up" mentality that they seemed to carry last year. Hopefully it shows them someone else needs to be aggressive creating.... which sets them up for a nice run over the next few months.
The 2nd half last night was the initial reaction phase to that disgusting first half of basketball. How do they come out tonight......will last night be a wake-up call or do they become complacent after getting the win while continuing to struggle with the same issues they have for most of the season?

I don't feel last night is an instant wake-up call fix and that the underlying issues don't simply disappear while it's a national game so getting blown out in Utah would raise eyebrows everywhere. Let's remember that the Jazz are also struggling at 5-6 and imo overrated themselves. Rozier's performance and the function of the offense as a whole will be interesting to watch. Lots of "stuff" going on right now.
 

lexrageorge

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Is there a source on Kyrie's absence tonight? I cannot find anything anywhere, unless it was mentioned on the telecast (which I missed).
 

benhogan

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As long as Brad wants to keep playing Gordon in high leverage situations, we should expect inconsistent team results. This may be the price the team has to pay to get a better/more developed Gordon later in the season. I'd prefer they brought him along at a slower pace and from the bench.

My bigger issue/concern, which I've had from day 1 (since pre-season actually) is starting Al at the 5 instead of the 4. Our defense and team performance is better when you have Baynes or Theis at the 5 (w/ Horford at the 4). This incessant move to play small ball with Gordon in the starting lineup will eventually run Al right into the ground as the season moves along.

Trust in Brad that he is playing the long game here, but not loving what I see so far.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think the team will be fine and that it's still too early in the season to get a read on things. Right now, they are on a particularly brutal road trip and they still have to play Portland. Indiana, Denver, Utah, Portland. That's tough. They are lucky they won that Suns game.

I think somewhere between 25-30 games is when you can get a real feel for a team and how good or bad they are going to be. Despite thinking that, I almost always fall for early season narratives anyway and usually get burned. Teams are usually what you think they are.
 

the moops

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If they do trade Rozier, I am unsure what this team actually needs to improve. Nobody they get for Rozier wpuld push anyone out of the starting lineup. Likewise I am doubtful anyone would push Morris or Smart for playing time.

So what does this team need? Perhaps a knockdown shooter off the bench who could come in for 15 minutes a game and bomb away? A poor man's Mirotic?

A 2nd round pick does nothing for the team, so Ainge doesn't even consider that if that is the return. Does a protected 2020 1st rounder make him consider?
 

Cesar Crespo

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So what does this team need? Perhaps a knockdown shooter off the bench who could come in for 15 minutes a game and bomb away? A poor man's Mirotic?
They would need someone to replace Rozier, who is/was supposed to be the knockdown shooter off the bench who could come in for 20-25 minutes a game and bomb away. He shot 38% from 3 last year and is currently at 43% this year. Unfortunately, this year he's decided to take more mid range jump shots for some reason so it's hurting his overall FG%. He's shooting 34% from 2. On a positive note, at least he's continuing to improve his numbers from within 3 feet. .355-->.469-->.535-->.600.


To switch subjects, is there a site that lists deflections? I'm curious how Semi is doing in that regard.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They would need someone to replace Rozier, who is/was supposed to be the knockdown shooter off the bench who could come in for 20-25 minutes a game and bomb away. He shot 38% from 3 last year and is currently at 43% this year. Unfortunately, this year he's decided to take more mid range jump shots for some reason so it's hurting his overall FG%. He's shooting 34% from 2. On a positive note, at least he's continuing to improve his numbers from within 3 feet. .355-->.469-->.535-->.600.


To switch subjects, is there a site that lists deflections? I'm curious how Semi is doing in that regard.
The NBA, I believe under Kiki Vandeweghe's guidance (but I could be wrong), have began producing many of their own advanced stats however I can't find anything on deflections or other "hustle" stats that the league or a site are publishing. When I was in Las Vegas for one of the summer leagues a few years ago, the Dunn draft of 2016, the league had a team tracking several hustle stats with one of them including deflections. It was a joke among our group of Rhode Islanders when someone mentioned Kris Dunn scoring well in this area while diminutive guard Bryce Cotton was in our group getting chided about possibly never having a deflection in his career. I don't recall ever seeing these published though.

I mentioned this in another thread last week but this is a stat that Pitino was tracking ever since he was a young assistant with the Knicks in the early 80's and something he brought to BU and Providence. Every practice scrimmage the defensive deflections were a focus with each game having a target goal of either 33 or 35 deflections per game (long time ago I don't recall specifically only that the number was in the mid-lower 30's and ended with an odd number).
 

ifmanis5

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If they do trade Rozier, I am unsure what this team actually needs to improve.
It's not about acquiring things so much as dumping an offensive mouth to feed. They have better players who can get better shots or move the ball. Terry was effective last year because all their better options were hurt. But now I'd rather have Kyrie, Hayward (once healthy) and Tatum having more offensive responsibilities. Rozier is a malcontent black hole and it's likely infecting everyone. Trade him for a future pick, pass first guard or a 3-pt specialist who can space the floor for others.
 

benhogan

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The NBA, I believe under Kiki Vandeweghe's guidance (but I could be wrong), have began producing many of their own advanced stats however I can't find anything on deflections or other "hustle" stats that the league or a site are publishing. When I was in Las Vegas for one of the summer leagues a few years ago, the Dunn draft of 2016, the league had a team tracking several hustle stats with one of them including deflections. It was a joke among our group of Rhode Islanders when someone mentioned Kris Dunn scoring well in this area while diminutive guard Bryce Cotton was in our group getting chided about possibly never having a deflection in his career. I don't recall ever seeing these published though.

I mentioned this in another thread last week but this is a stat that Pitino was tracking ever since he was a young assistant with the Knicks in the early 80's and something he brought to BU and Providence. Every practice scrimmage the defensive deflections were a focus with each game having a target goal of either 33 or 35 deflections per game (long time ago I don't recall specifically only that the number was in the mid-lower 30's and ended with an odd number).
Not loved by C fans, but Pitino is probably one of the 5 greatest college coaches of all-time. Turned four separate programs around. Being a Cuse fan/grad I've been watching him up close since the early 80s. Not sure if you read it but I'd recommend Rick's book Success is a Choice.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not loved by C fans, but Pitino is probably one of the 5 greatest college coaches of all-time. Turned four separate programs around. Being a Cuse fan/grad I've been watching him up close since the early 80s. Not sure if you read it but I'd recommend Rick's book Success is a Choice.
Is he loved by anyone?
 

JakeRae

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As long as Brad wants to keep playing Gordon in high leverage situations, we should expect inconsistent team results. This may be the price the team has to pay to get a better/more developed Gordon later in the season. I'd prefer they brought him along at a slower pace and from the bench.

My bigger issue/concern, which I've had from day 1 (since pre-season actually) is starting Al at the 5 instead of the 4. Our defense and team performance is better when you have Baynes or Theis at the 5 (w/ Horford at the 4). This incessant move to play small ball with Gordon in the starting lineup will eventually run Al right into the ground as the season moves along.

Trust in Brad that he is playing the long game here, but not loving what I see so far.
For your first point, you have to play Hayward as a starter both for ego reasons and because it is ultimately the unit we expect to start in the playoffs. Losing a handful of extra regular season games is a small price to pay to maintain role consistency.

For the second, this makes little sense to me. We simply haven't seen enough of those lineups to declare them to be better. Horford and Theis have shared the court for 3 minutes and have a net rating of zero. Horford and Baynes have shared the court for 13 minutes and do have a net rating of +20.8, so there may be something there, but we're talking an incredibly small sample.

A year ago, of our best 5 man units to play at least 50 minutes together, the best 2 both featured Horford at the 5. The next best 3 had Baynes and Horford on the court together. I would agree that Horford and Baynes is an effective pairing, but there is no clear evidence that it is better than units featuring Horford at the 5, only that it is also good and effective.
 

benhogan

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For your first point, you have to play Hayward as a starter both for ego reasons and because it is ultimately the unit we expect to start in the playoffs. Losing a handful of extra regular season games is a small price to pay to maintain role consistency.

For the second, this makes little sense to me. We simply haven't seen enough of those lineups to declare them to be better. Horford and Theis have shared the court for 3 minutes and have a net rating of zero. Horford and Baynes have shared the court for 13 minutes and do have a net rating of +20.8, so there may be something there, but we're talking an incredibly small sample.

A year ago, of our best 5 man units to play at least 50 minutes together, the best 2 both featured Horford at the 5. The next best 3 had Baynes and Horford on the court together. I would agree that Horford and Baynes is an effective pairing, but there is no clear evidence that it is better than units featuring Horford at the 5, only that it is also good and effective.
You're kind of making my point. There isn't much of a sample size of Baynes and Horford playing together since Brad has them both playing the 5. Last year when Aron started with Al, they played well together. Aron did the dirty work on both offense and defense, took the pounding from the other team's big man and Al effectively guarded big wings.

The whole point of having a small ball lineup is to be an offensive juggernaut, which they're clearly not to start games. Not many picks/ screens, offensive boards, 5 guys standing around the perimeter looking for their shot, it lacks balance (see attached page).

Question, why do you think the Golden State Warriors start Damian Jones at the 5 (and ZaZa/McGee in years past) instead of starting with the Hampton 5?

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738
 
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Deathofthebambino

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Speaking of Golden State. Curry gets hurt, so Quinn Cook gets his first start of the season. He goes 11/16 from the field, scores a game high 27 points and they win by 16 against Brooklyn. Cook started 18 games last year, and shot over 44% from 3. WTF? Where do they find these guys? Was even he even drafted?

If Smart or Rozier could just have one game like that, I'd be through the moon. Does Cook play good defense too?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Speaking of Golden State. Curry gets hurt, so Quinn Cook gets his first start of the season. He goes 11/16 from the field, scores a game high 27 points and they win by 16 against Brooklyn. Cook started 18 games last year, and shot over 44% from 3. WTF? Where do they find these guys? Was even he even drafted?

If Smart or Rozier could just have one game like that, I'd be through the moon. Does Cook play good defense too?
Sounds like the Matt Flynn of the NBA, if he's lucky, contract-wise
 

Light-Tower-Power

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SSS but 3P% so far this season:

Jaylen Brown - 27.7%
Jayson Tatum - 35.4%
Gordon Hayward - 31.8%
Al Horford - 30.2%
Kyrie Irving - 41.9%

The starting lineup outside of Kyrie has been pretty much abysmal from deep to start the season. We're not complaining about Brad's live by the three die by the three offense if the entire starting lineup was shooting close to the 40% numbers they shot last season, or in Gordon's case, two seasons ago. Let's hope for reversion to the mean sooner rather than later, and that the Jays' shooting numbers last season weren't flukes.
 

bigq

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SSS but 3P% so far this season:

Jaylen Brown - 27.7%
Jayson Tatum - 35.4%
Gordon Hayward - 31.8%
Al Horford - 30.2%
Kyrie Irving - 41.9%

The starting lineup outside of Kyrie has been pretty much abysmal from deep to start the season. We're not complaining about Brad's live by the three die by the three offense if the entire starting lineup was shooting close to the 40% numbers they shot last season, or in Gordon's case, two seasons ago. Let's hope for reversion to the mean sooner rather than later, and that the Jays' shooting numbers last season weren't flukes.
Gets marginally better when you include the bench because Morris and Rozier are hitting 3s at better rates than any of the starters.

Marcus Smart - 25.6%
Terry Rozier - 43.2%
Aron Baynes - 33.3%
Marcus Morris - 48.3%

For the regular season so far the Celtics are at 35.8% which is down from 37.7% for last season.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Sounds like the Matt Flynn of the NBA, if he's lucky, contract-wise
Cook shot 47% from 3 in the 18 games he started in place of Curry last year while avg 15/4/4. This offense is ideal for his skillset which consists primarily of locating space off the dribble to get off a clean look from 3 more than Cook not being a great shooter.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Question, why do you think the Golden State Warriors start Damian Jones at the 5 (and ZaZa/McGee in years past) instead of starting with the Hampton 5?
Plus Bogut and Ezeli before that. To answer your (rhetorical) question:

1. Full-size centers absorb early fouls that would otherwise fall on Draymond
2. Full-size centers absorb physical punishment / wear-and-tear that would otherwise fall on Draymond
3. Full-size centers inflict physical punishment of their own, setting an early tone of intimidation (there aren't many Steven Adamses around any more, but do we really want a 6'-6" 230 guy like Draymond or even a 6'-9" 240 guy like Horford starting a game against Adams?)
4. Diminishing returns: smallball lineups like Hamptons Five tend to work best in short, shock-and-awe blasts (and though I haven't seen data to support it, I'd assume smallball lineups in general are less effective than they were 4-5 years ago, for the simple reason that they're so commonplace that teams know how to counter them)

So yeah, I'll support your petition to start Baynes at 5 and Horford at 4, with the Horford at 5 units used a bit more selectively.

On the other hand: the Raptors have been starting Ibaka at the 5 instead of Valanciunas, and that seems to be working out swimmingly for them ... though Nurse has been curtailing Ibaka's minutes (26.5 mpg), which may mitigate issues of foul trouble and wear-and-tear. We'll see how well Ibaka holds up in that role.
 
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JakeRae

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Damion Jones is averaging 2 minutes more per game than Baynes. I have trouble seeing the difference in their respective usage as meaningful.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Speaking of Golden State. Curry gets hurt, so Quinn Cook gets his first start of the season. He goes 11/16 from the field, scores a game high 27 points and they win by 16 against Brooklyn. Cook started 18 games last year, and shot over 44% from 3. WTF? Where do they find these guys? Was even he even drafted?
Briefly (since the Cook phenomenon is also be discussed in the NBA Game Thread): he was undrafted out of Duke in 2015, likely due to his small frame and lack of elite quickness. Found a place in the G-League, and has impressed everywhere he's been, including Portland, ME with the Red Claws. Had a cup of coffee in the NBA in New Orleans and Dallas (both of whom were fairly glutted with small guards who could shoot) before Bob Myers and his scouting staff took a flier on him. I wouldn't give Myers too much credit for being a genius in this instance, though — they signed him to a non-guaranteed two-way deal, and I don't think they really knew what they had in him till Curry went down.

I agree with others that he may be a bit of a "System QB" — and as one might expect, he looks a whole lot better alongside KD and Klay than he does when asked to be the primary option with bench players. But the elite shooting has been with him consistently since Duke, so seems pretty real at this point.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Damion Jones is averaging 2 minutes more per game than Baynes. I have trouble seeing the difference in their respective usage as meaningful.
Not exactly apples-to-apples, since the Ws have another (nearly) full-sized rotation C in Kevon Looney, who's been getting 17 minutes a game.

Then again, Horford-to-Green isn't exactly apples-to-apples either, since Horford's a lot closer to normal center-sized, with a sturdier frame and less frenetic style that seems better suited to longer minutes at C.

I guess it really comes down to how high you guys are on Baynes. I haven't seen enough him this season to have a strong opinion. But assuming he isn't a complete scrub, I do think there may be some value in running him out there as a physical tone-setter / punishment absorber / punishment inflicter for 5-6 minutes at the start of each half, at least during the regular season.
 

JakeRae

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Looney is listed at 6'9", 220 pounds. He's basically the same size as Theis and Marcus Morris and is smaller than Horford in both height and weight.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Looney entered the league as a 19 year-old baby, and I suspect those measurements reflect that. He's gotten significantly bigger and stronger in the intervening three years. I don't think Theis or Morris has Looney's 7'-4" wingspan or 9'-2" standing reach, and Morris in particular does not remotely anchor the defense or defend the rim like Looney (1.9 blocks per 36, career). At his current age, I think Looney's very close in terms of size, physicality, and defense to Horford (without Big Al's sweet offensive skills, obviously).

Anyway, I didn't want to discuss Looney in this space — just noting that in this comparison the Warriors' non-Draymond center minutes need to be thought of as Jones + Looney + a bit of Bell (+ eventually Cousins), not just Jones. The main point is that Horford plays a far bigger percentage of his minutes as the team's sole big man than Draymond does. I think Ben Hogan's point is that the Celtics would do well to dial down Horford's C minutes, not necessarily to Draymond level (since Horford is a bit better suited physically to the task), but some.

Of course, with Theis hurt and Sleepy developing in Maine, that may be easier said than done. 10-15 minutes per game of one or the other would probably solve the problem, such as it is.
 

amarshal2

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Shorthand as I’m doing quick work from mobile:

Celtics problems in a nut shell These are all FG%/3pt%
Vs last season:
Al -.030/-.130
JT: -.070/-.080
JB: -.100/-.120

Hayward
vs career: -.050/-.050
Vs 2016: -.080/-.080

Anecdotally the broadcasts keep pointing out they basically lead league in mid range jumpers and are last in shots at the rim. Brad talked about this during an interview vs Jazz. There was an obvious effort last game by Tatum and Brown to go to the rim, where they promptly and repeatedly missed bunnies.

Basically the shot selection and some geling on offense will go a far ways to fixing the first problem. I have a lot of confidence they can and will be at least be average in getting to the rim.

As for 3pt% we gotta just hope it’s a fluke that will sort itself out. They are near the league lead in open 3’s taken but much lower in 3pt % on open 3’s. I don’t know how to explain that being so pervasive across the team. I think it’s a fluke.

I will point out that Tatum’s 3pt% since probably around January is well below his full 2017 season mark that’s buoyed by his super hot start. Without looking I bet it’s about 34%. Edit: I looked and good news is I’m wrong.
Post ASB: .450 (!)
Playoffs: .324
2018: .354
Phew, I think we can rely on the bigger sample to smooth things out. He is taking more difficult 3’s so he may not be over .400 but he’ll be better on open shots for sure.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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Cook shot 47% from 3 in the 18 games he started in place of Curry last year while avg 15/4/4. This offense is ideal for his skillset which consists primarily of locating space off the dribble to get off a clean look from 3 more than Cook not being a great shooter.
Lesser known 5th options on a team like that will get chances to shine
 

HomeRunBaker

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Plus Bogut and Ezeli before that. To answer your (rhetorical) question:

1. Full-size centers absorb early fouls that would otherwise fall on Draymond
2. Full-size centers absorb physical punishment / wear-and-tear that would otherwise fall on Draymond
3. Full-size centers inflict physical punishment of their own, setting an early tone of intimidation (there aren't many Steven Adamses around any more, but do we really want a 6'-6" 230 guy like Draymond or even a 6'-9" 240 guy like Horford starting a game against Adams?)
4. Diminishing returns: smallball lineups like Hamptons Five tend to work best in short, shock-and-awe blasts (and though I haven't seen data to support it, I'd assume smallball lineups in general are less effective than they were 4-5 years ago, for the simple reason that they're so commonplace that teams know how to counter them)

So yeah, I'll support your petition to start Baynes at 5 and Horford at 4, with the Horford at 5 units used a bit more selectively.

On the other hand: the Raptors have been starting Ibaka at the 5 instead of Valanciunas, and that seems to be working out swimmingly for them ... though Nurse has been curtailing Ibaka's minutes (26.5 mpg), which may mitigate issues of foul trouble and wear-and-tear. We'll see how well Ibaka holds up in that role.
Where is all this "punishment" and "wear and tear" on Horford at the 5 as if he's some undersized SF being asked to play out of position? Horford has played the 5 throughout his career when the league had back-to-basket 5's putting a "physical punishment" on poor ole Al. Playing Baynes and Horford regularly together to start games with exception toward a small number of particular matchups sounds like an awful idea with how the NBA game is played today as one of them will surely be at a disadvantage defending out of position. I mean Horford wasn't asked to chase perimeter players out at the 3-point line while defending them off the dribble when he was younger.....this sounds like a horrible and idea unfair to him to asking him to do this now.
 

benhogan

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Looney entered the league as a 19 year-old baby, and I suspect those measurements reflect that. He's gotten significantly bigger and stronger in the intervening three years. I don't think Theis or Morris has Looney's 7'-4" wingspan or 9'-2" standing reach, and Morris in particular does not remotely anchor the defense or defend the rim like Looney (1.9 blocks per 36, career). At his current age, I think Looney's very close in terms of size, physicality, and defense to Horford (without Big Al's sweet offensive skills, obviously).

Anyway, I didn't want to discuss Looney in this space — just noting that in this comparison the Warriors' non-Draymond center minutes need to be thought of as Jones + Looney + a bit of Bell (+ eventually Cousins), not just Jones. The main point is that Horford plays a far bigger percentage of his minutes as the team's sole big man than Draymond does. I think Ben Hogan's point is that the Celtics would do well to dial down Horford's C minutes, not necessarily to Draymond level (since Horford is a bit better suited physically to the task), but some.

Of course, with Theis hurt and Sleepy developing in Maine, that may be easier said than done. 10-15 minutes per game of one or the other would probably solve the problem, such as it is.
100% this. Thanks for some insight into how it works for the Warriors.

Apologies, didn't mean for you to defend my obsessive desire to see Baynes start alongside Al. I expect we'll see Horford's offensive production to suffer because of the physical toll guarding 5s all game long (when in theory Al's offense should blossom in a small ball unit).
 
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Sam Ray Not

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100% this. Thanks for some insight into how it works for the Warriors.

Apologies, didn't mean for you to defend my obsessive desire to see Baynes start alongside Al. I expect we'll see Horford's offensive production to suffer because of the physical toll guarding 5s all game long (when in theory Al's offense should blossom in a small ball unit).
Thanks. I mean, HRB makes good points about asking a lot of Horford to guard the perimeter, too. I know Horford’s not as switchable as Draymond, but I’ve always thought of him as athletic and switchable enough to play alongside another big for 10-12 minutes a game without getting killed, unless you’re playing against a real 5-out three-point bombing team.

Just to throw out a couple EC teams: Baynes/Horford strikes me as a better matchup than Horford/Hayward against the size of Giannis/Lopez or Drummond/Griffin. Against smaller, quicker teams that run four out with two small forwards maybe you run out the current small starting 5. One size doesn’t always fit all.

And to be clear: I’m not arguing that Baynes/Horford is the Cs “best unit,” any more than I thought the Warriors were better with Bogut/Zaza/JaVale at 5 than with Iguodala at 3 and Dray sliding to 5. I’m just arguing that running out a variety of looks, including occasional “big-ball,” is part of being a dominant team; and that the effectiveness of a smallball unit can be diminished from extreme overuse, not only due to potential wear-and-tear but also because it makes you more predictable and easier to gameplan.
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
30,322
100% this. Thanks for some insight into how it works for the Warriors.

Apologies, didn't mean for you to defend my obsessive desire to see Baynes start alongside Al. I expect we'll see Horford's offensive production to suffer because of the physical toll guarding 5s all game long (when in theory Al's offense should blossom in a small ball unit).
Why would you expect this when we've seen Horford play his entire career at the 5 with nearly identical pre and post-ASB numbers with his playoff numbers also eerily similar to those of the regular season?

This isn't some unknown entity......we've seen Horford do this for over a decade without the "physical toll" that doesnt exist. He's a 5 in the NBA defending mostly face up offensive players......he's not a LB for the Bears.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
20,339
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Thanks. I mean, HRB makes good points about asking a lot of Horford to guard the perimeter, too. I know Horford’s not as switchable as Draymond, but I’ve always thought of him as athletic and switchable enough to play alongside another big for 10-12 minutes a game without getting killed, unless you’re playing against a real 5-out three-point bombing team.

Just to throw out a couple EC teams: Baynes/Horford strikes me as a better matchup than Horford/Hayward against the size of Giannis/Lopez or Drummond/Griffin. Against smaller, quicker teams that run four out with two small forwards maybe you run out the current small starting 5. One size doesn’t always fit all.

And to be clear: I’m not arguing that Baynes/Horford is the Cs “best unit,” any more than I thought the Warriors were better with Bogut/Zaza/JaVale at 5 than with Iguodala at 3 and Dray sliding to 5. I’m just arguing that running out a variety of looks, including occasional “big-ball,” is part of being a dominant team; and that the effectiveness of a smallball unit can be diminished from extreme overuse, not only due to potential wear-and-tear but also because it makes you more predictable and easier to gameplan.
SRN, you've completely articulated my thoughts on the use of Horford/Baynes. Its situational for me. Detroit/Philly, Baynes starts on Drummond/Embiid. I had this same issue during the EC playoff finals with the Cavs last year. I wanted Brad to match up Baynes when Tristan Thompson was playing. Brad was a little slow on that trigger (not that it was the reason for losing the series).
I get why Brad is going small, to create offensive mismatches on the perimeter. It's way too early to say its the wrong/right move. But I concur with everything you said and think the Warriors/Kerr do a great job on defining roles for their roster.
I'll drop it, clearly Brad is going in this direction and he has forgotten more about hoops then I'll ever know.:)
 

Eddie Jurak

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Dec 12, 2002
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Where is all this "punishment" and "wear and tear" on Horford at the 5 as if he's some undersized SF being asked to play out of position? Horford has played the 5 throughout his career when the league had back-to-basket 5's putting a "physical punishment" on poor ole Al. Playing Baynes and Horford regularly together to start games with exception toward a small number of particular matchups sounds like an awful idea with how the NBA game is played today as one of them will surely be at a disadvantage defending out of position. I mean Horford wasn't asked to chase perimeter players out at the 3-point line while defending them off the dribble when he was younger.....this sounds like a horrible and idea unfair to him to asking him to do this now.
I think there's a case for starting Baynes in certain matchups, but beyond that I agree with you.
 

mikeford

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Aug 6, 2006
29,684
St John's, NL
So uh... Do we make anything of this Kyrie quote from post game last night?

“Right now I think it would be nice if we had someone that was a 15-year vet” Irving said. “A 14-year vet that could kind of help us race along the regular season and understand it’s a long marathon rather than just a full-on sprint.”
Wild shade at Horford IMO
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,322
So uh... Do we make anything of this Kyrie quote from post game last night?



Wild shade at Horford IMO
I don't see this to do with Horford at all and directed at Ainge to make some roster moves for veterans. It's clearly in reference to the Lakers going on a little run since adding Tyson Chandler imo rather than running out a third of their rotation with 21-year olds playing for their first contract.