Mookie Betts appreciation thread

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Nobody has ever even gone 50/30 -- which he could possibly do.

Interestingly, of the 4 players who have gone 40/40, three of them didn't seriously threaten to win the MVP. Soriano in 2006 was 6th in the voting, Arod in 1998 was 9th in voting, and Bonds in 1996 was 5th in voting. Only Canseco (1996) won the award.

But I guess that's all messed up by steroids. 40/40 would probably be viewed as more of accomplishment today than it would have been back then given that the 40/40 guys were competing in an era where hitting 50 wasn't as special.
The 40/40 thing aided Canseco's MVP candidacy more than those others primarily because he was the first to get there. Plus his team won their division with the best record in the league. By the time Bonds and ARod and Soriano did it, the novelty was gone and their teams were not post-season contenders.

Being the first to do 50/30 or 50/40 could boost Ramirez's prospects, but probably much less so in a stacked field.
 

Al Zarilla

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Somewhat surprisingly, Mookie Betts is now one of only three Red Sox in history to accumulate both 100 HR and 100 stolen bases -- and somewhat less surprisingly, the only one to get there while still in his twenties. (The other two are Pedroia and Yaz.)
I would have bet my hat on Dom DiMaggio and Reggie Smith, but the war got Dom and the trade stopped Smith.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I would have bet my hat on Dom DiMaggio and Reggie Smith, but the war got Dom and the trade stopped Smith.
I'd have thought Ellis Burks but he was off the team after his age 27 season. He finished with 93 HRs and 93 sb. Then he came back for his swan song in 2004, so his totals were 94 HRs, 95 sb.

edit: After his age 24 season, he already had 50 HRs and 73 sb.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The 40/40 thing aided Canseco's MVP candidacy more than those others primarily because he was the first to get there. Plus his team won their division with the best record in the league. By the time Bonds and ARod and Soriano did it, the novelty was gone and their teams were not post-season contenders.

Being the first to do 50/30 or 50/40 could boost Ramirez's prospects, but probably much less so in a stacked field.
This discussion got me to wondering whether anyone ever led the league both in home runs and stolen bases in the same year in the live ball era. My hunch was no way -- seems impossible. I thought the only possibilities were (1) Babe Ruth, in some year where a relatively small number of bases was enough to get to the lead, or (2) Willie Mays. Neither did, but Mays came close by leading the league with 51 and then ripping off 4 consecutive years of having the stolen base lead, but never in the same year.

Am I missing anyone obvious?

Pre live ball, I was guessing maybe Honus Wagner, but he never led the league in HRs. Ty Cobb is the only guy I could find who ever did it. In 1909 he had 9 HRs and 76 SBs, both of which led the league.

In goofing around with baseball reference, the one guy I found that I had forgotten about having a great year with speed and power was Jacoby Ellsbury. I mean, I knew he was incredible in 2011, but I forgot just what an amazing year he had. He went for 32 and 39 that year.

Edit: Aaron came reasonably close in 1963 with 44 and 31 -- the stolen base lead that year was 40.
 

jon abbey

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This discussion got me to wondering whether anyone ever led the league both in home runs and stolen bases in the same year in the live ball era. My hunch was no way -- seems impossible. I thought the only possibilities were (1) Babe Ruth, in some year where a relatively small number of bases was enough to get to the lead, or (2) Willie Mays. Neither did, but Mays came close by leading the league with 51 and then ripping off 4 consecutive years of having the stolen base lead, but never in the same year.

Am I missing anyone obvious?

Pre live ball, I was guessing maybe Honus Wagner, but he never led the league in HRs. Ty Cobb is the only guy I could find who ever did it. In 1909 he had 9 HRs and 76 SBs, both of which led the league.

In goofing around with baseball reference, the one guy I found that I had forgotten about having a great year with speed and power was Jacoby Ellsbury. I mean, I knew he was incredible in 2011, but I forgot just what an amazing year he had. He went for 32 and 39 that year.

Edit: Aaron came reasonably close in 1963 with 44 and 31 -- the stolen base lead that year was 40.
Chuck Klein in 1932 is the only one to do it, not sure if that is live ball era or not. It came up this week because Jose Ramirez was 1st in both.
 

grimshaw

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There aren't many guys who even hit 25+ home runs and led in steals. Henderson and Joe Morgan are a couple who did.

I will not be upset if any of the top 5 guys win the MVP. There have been some beastly AL seasons this year.
 

Adrian's Dome

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There aren't many guys who even hit 25+ home runs and led in steals. Henderson and Joe Morgan are a couple who did.

I will not be upset if any of the top 5 guys win the MVP. There have been some beastly AL seasons this year.
It's only because the rest of the AL is so bad by comparison.
 

Hank Scorpio

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WPA leaders:
1) JDM 4.57
2) Betts 4.44
3) Beni 3.63
4) Jose Ramirez 3.47
5) Bregman 3.45
This is just my opinion, and maybe my logic is flawed here, is that an argument against WPA is the lack of foresight.

Say the Sox are trailing 3-0 in the top of the 9th in an away game. Mookie gets a single. Benny does the same. Pearce legs out an infield single and loads the bases. All three players make near equal contributions, but they're probably valued quite differently by WPA.

JDM comes up and hits a grand slam, and gains something like 0.400 WPA, while everyone else probably gained something .020-.100 for their contributions.

It's an exciting metric, but are we sure it doesn't give too much weight to RBIs, and not enough to runs scored?
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is just my opinion, and maybe my logic is flawed here, is that an argument against WPA is the lack of foresight.

Say the Sox are trailing 3-0 in the top of the 9th in an away game. Mookie gets a single. Benny does the same. Pearce legs out an infield single and loads the bases. All three players make near equal contributions, but they're probably valued quite differently by WPA.

JDM comes up and hits a grand slam, and gains something like 0.400 WPA, while everyone else probably gained something .020-.100 for their contributions.

It's an exciting metric, but are we sure it doesn't give too much weight to RBIs, and not enough to runs scored?

How does that all work with a situation like tonight where Mookie draws the walk but Mitch Moreland gets the run?
 

Pitt the Elder

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How does that all work with a situation like tonight where Mookie draws the walk but Mitch Moreland gets the run?
I'm guessing Mookie's WPA ticked up slightly when he took his walk and the probability the Sox would win inched up. In a 0-0 game, it's probably a decent amount.
 

Max Power

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Chuck Klein in 1932 is the only one to do it, not sure if that is live ball era or not. It came up this week because Jose Ramirez was 1st in both.
Yeah, but home run numbers in the Baker Bowl were more than a little juiced. It was 280' to right.
 

SumnerH

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Chuck Klein in 1932 is the only one to do it, not sure if that is live ball era or not. It came up this week because Jose Ramirez was 1st in both.
Most people count 1920 as the beginning of the live ball era. It's a bit weird though, since (contrary to what Eight Men Out would have you believe) the actual live ball was introduced in 1910 or 1911.

There were other changes for the 1920 and 1921 seasons that helped offense considerably, though—notably, getting rid of worn balls earlier and banning the spitter unless you were grandfathered in.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Nobody has ever even gone 50/30 -- which he could possibly do.

Interestingly, of the 4 players who have gone 40/40, three of them didn't seriously threaten to win the MVP. Soriano in 2006 was 6th in the voting, Arod in 1998 was 9th in voting, and Bonds in 1996 was 5th in voting. Only Canseco (1996) won the award.

But I guess that's all messed up by steroids. 40/40 would probably be viewed as more of accomplishment today than it would have been back then given that the 40/40 guys were competing in an era where hitting 50 wasn't as special.
Eric Davis had 57 sb and 37 hr in 1987, in only 129 games. He could have gotten to 40/60 easily, but was never going to lead the league in steals because Vince Coleman was running wild.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Eric Davis has some ridiculous HR/SB seasons and it's a shame he was derailed by injury. He'd probably have given Barry Bonds some company in the 400/400 club, if not 500/500.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Mookie now leads the league in fWAR and bWAR. With Trout on the DL and Mookie bashing, hopefully he can open up a bit of a lead.
 

DJnVa

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Somewhat surprisingly, Mookie Betts is now one of only three Red Sox in history to accumulate both 100 HR and 100 stolen bases -- and somewhat less surprisingly, the only one to get there while still in his twenties. (The other two are Pedroia and Yaz.)
Seems surprising on the face of it, but then you take a look at the lists and see only 15 Red Sox players have ever stolen 100 bases for the team.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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He was great but he obviously couldn’t stay on the field. Less than half his career he did even play over 100 games in a season.
For the five years he was a "full time" starter in Cincy, he averaged 30 homers and 41 steals with an OPS of .899, and did that missing at least 30 games each of those seasons. He hit for an OPS of .970 in 1998, after coming back from a retirement due to knee injuries and beating colon cancer. His talent level was just off the charts.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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For the five years he was a "full time" starter in Cincy, he averaged 30 homers and 41 steals with an OPS of .899, and did that missing at least 30 games each of those seasons. He hit for an OPS of .970 in 1998, after coming back from a retirement due to knee injuries and beating colon cancer. His talent level was just off the charts.
I’m agreeing with the assessment of his talent. The post I responded to commented that he’s never talked about. When only 5/17 seasons of a career can be labeled as full time starter, you’re not going to make it into a lot of conversations. I was a Reds fan as a small kid (no idea why) and he was my favorite player on those teams (I remember winning $10 off my dad that they’d beat the A’s). But, unfortunately, he couldn’t stay on the field. I’d say there’s other like him in baseball and any other sport.
 

Niastri

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I was just looking at the baseball reference page for Mookie. They have their Hall of Fame statistics section for each player, which I often find interesting.

Obviously Mookie has had a great start to his career, and if he keeps up this level of play will be in the Hall some day.

But the thing that astounded me is the WAR figures. The average right fielder in the Hall of Fame had a 7 year peak WAR of 42.9. Mookie has a 32.3 7 year peak, about 10 wins behind. Pretty pedestrian until you consider that he's only played 3 full seasons and has 40 plus games left in the current one.

He also is about half way to a Hall of Fame career in the other stats they track. Just another way to quantify how amazing he had been.
 

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Yes, that's the AT&T building on the left. And 615 is the area code for Nashville. I think it's a pretty solid merger of Nashville and Boston
The musical notes, too.

Edit: Wally should be looking up and over his head, or at least his shoulder.
 

Al Zarilla

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Didi Gregorious went something like 1 for 43 earlier this year, maybe worse, can’t tell on BBREF gamelogs how he did the last ABs of the first day before or the first ABs the day after the slump*. Before the slump he was neck and neck with Mookie in everything. Hitting is tricky. You never know when the swing, hand-eye, everything is going to leave you. We need him to get it back though.

* Without looking at box scores, too lazy, point is made anyway.
 

Al Zarilla

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I hope it's a slump. I fear that TB and Cleveland figured something out.
I hadn’t thought of that. My fear is that he’s not going to be a consistent, year in, year out top hitter like Mike Trout is or JD looks to have become. Look at what Mookie did last year: .264/.344/.459. It couldn’t have all been not being aggressive enough early in the count, which Cora takes credit for pointing out to him before this season. What else ya got, Alex? Mookie did have a similar “slump” from July 15 through July 31 this year when his average dipped from .362 to .338. Then, 4 hit game against the Yankees and he was fine until the Rays series in Boston when he went 1 for 13. Maybe the Rays are his Kryptonite.

As for the Rays and/or Cleveland figuring out something, isn’t it pretty well established you don’t throw fastballs middle-in to him and try to get him out with breaking stuff instead ?
 

Reverend

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I hadn’t thought of that. My fear is that he’s not going to be a consistent, year in, year out top hitter like Mike Trout is or JD looks to have become. Look at what Mookie did last year: .264/.344/.459. It couldn’t have all been not being aggressive enough early in the count, which Cora takes credit for pointing out to him before this season. What else ya got, Alex? Mookie did have a similar “slump” from July 15 through July 31 this year when his average dipped from .362 to .338. Then, 4 hit game against the Yankees and he was fine until the Rays series in Boston when he went 1 for 13. Maybe the Rays are his Kryptonite.

As for the Rays and/or Cleveland figuring out something, isn’t it pretty well established you don’t throw fastballs middle-in to him and try to get him out with breaking stuff instead ?
Absent and explanation of how the entire team so radically and consistently underperformed on offense last year, I'm not prepared to make many assumptions.

Well, except for the fact that I'm effectively assuming that there are causal variables that we--or at least I, as a fan--cannot identify. I mean, it's possible that every player who underperformed had their own specific thing messing with them, but statistically, it is reasonable to believe there might have been one or two things affecting multiple players.

So I feel scientifically rigorous in my "I dunno" on that front.
 

Al Zarilla

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Mookie is back in front of Jose Ramirez for #1 in fWAR. Jose has been in a slump of his own, 7 for his last 43. All the top hitters have slumps, as we know, from Ted Williams on down. It’s now, for fWAR:

Mookie 8.2
Jose R. 8.1
Trout 8.0
Lindor 6.9

I see another difference maker: they jumped Mookie in the defensive component by maybe 2-3 points, and Jose might have fallen back? I wish fangraphs put out notifications when they adjust stuff, or do they?
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Mookie is also #1 in BWAR, 8.4 to 8.1 over Trout, Chapman at 7.6 and Ramirez at 7.5.

Sure, I hope Mookie resumes his awesome hitting, while doing everything else that he does, from earlier this year.
 

Pitt the Elder

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On the heels of yesterday's big game, Betts has even bigger leads in fWAR and bWAR:

fWAR:
  • Betts - 8.5
  • Ramirez - 8.0
  • Trout - 8.0
bWAR:
  • Betts - 8.8
  • Trout - 8.1
  • Chapman - 7.6
  • Ramirez - 7.5
It also feels like Mookie has been struggling the last month or so but he's actually put up 180 wRC+ (so far) in August. He hasn't quite recaptured his blistering first two months (208 and 216 wRC+) but maybe he can put together a spectacular finish.
 

williams_482

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I see another difference maker: they jumped Mookie in the defensive component by maybe 2-3 points, and Jose might have fallen back? I wish fangraphs put out notifications when they adjust stuff, or do they?
Fangraphs hasn't changed any of their formulas for this stuff recently. The most likely explanation is that Mookie made some good plays over that span, while Ramirez didn't.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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So I guess a Mookie foul ball hit a woman in the face last night. He brought a bat down to the woman’s son, autographed it (with an “I’m sorry”) to help cheer up the kid. God I hope he stays here for the long term.