Patriots 54-man Roster Projection 1.0

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,299
deep inside Guido territory
53-man plus Edelman. I think once Michel is back, you may see Hill go in favor of Braxton Berrios. Not sure on the LBs. I think Elandon Roberts is on very thin ice and I honestly can see him getting replaed by Bentley or even Harvey Langi.
QB(2)--Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer
RB(4)--Rex Burkhead, James White, Sony Michel, Jeremy Hill
FB(1)--James Develin
OL(8)--Marcus Cannon, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn, Ted Karras, James Ferentz
WR(7)--Julian Edelman(suspended), Chris Hogan, Eric Decker, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarelle Patterson, Kenny Britt, Riley McCarron
TE(3)--Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen, Jacob Hollister

DL(4)--Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, Malcolm Brown, Vincent Valentine
DE(4)--Adrian Clayborn, Trey Flowers, Derek Rivers, Deatrich Wise
LB(5)--Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Marquis Flowers, Christian Sam, Ja'Whaun Bentley
CB(6)--Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Duke Dawson, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson
SAF(3)--Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Patrick Chung
ST(7): Stephen Gostkowski, Cory Bojorquez, Joe Cardona, Matthew Slater, Brandon King, Nate Ebner, Brandon Bolden

Anyone feel free to offer their own projections.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,059
Hingham, MA
Thanks for starting this. One thing that jumps out is that, with good health, the DL/DE position seems to be in so much better shape than a year ago. That's a pretty solid group of 8.

I agree that one of Hill and Gillislee is not going to make the team.

I like the inclusion of JC Jackson, he seems to be showing up a lot.

I have no idea if Kenny Britt will make the team, but given the current WR depth chart, I like your list.

I think the punter's job is still Ryan Allen's.

You think Etling will land on the practice squad? I guess we will see how he looks in preseason games, it will be interesting to see if they save a roster spot for him.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,455
I agree with almost all of that. I think Berrios makes it over Riley, and Roberts or Langi makes it over the 9th/11th DB (JC), and Allen is still there.

That Cyrus draft pick looks bad.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
Every team has draft picks that look bad. Cyrus for sure. Oh well, it happens. They've had tons of excellent picks.

Etling on the PS, IMO.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,099
We'll need to wait a bit on Jones. He had a pretty serious injury that's obviously set him back as well as costing him a crucial year in development. Hopefully he can get on the field for preseason Game 2 and be able to show something.

The Pats drafted Etling for a reason, so he'll either be on the PS if they think they can get him through and convince him to stay on, or he'll be on the roster. Hoyer is gone after this year, and they'll need at least a backup QB next year.
 

genoasalami

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2006
2,579
Concerned about how things will play out with Sony Michel. I get the "minor procedure" reassurance, but it is a knee procedure on a guy who fell in the draft because of a balky knee.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Concerned about how things will play out with Sony Michel. I get the "minor procedure" reassurance, but it is a knee procedure on a guy who fell in the draft because of a balky knee.
You can put this in 12-point type. They need an impactful rookie season from him. Especially if nobody emerges in a big way at WR.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

T&A
SoSH Member
Feb 9, 2010
5,302
Providence, RI
DL(4)--Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, Malcolm Brown, Vincent Valentine

Adam Butler is a tough cut here. He put together a fairly promising rookie season and at this size offers some position flexibility between playing inside and outside.

OL(8)--Marcus Cannon, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn, Ted Karras, James Ferentz

If Wynn is able to play both Guard and Tackle then I think I could see them keeping Waddle over either Karras or Ferentz
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,095
This tool makes doing roster projections very easy
https://www.patsfans.com/patspicker/
Cool tool. I dropped Hill and Gillislee, and kept Waddle and Butler, and a few of the late picks/UDFAs (Bentley, Sam, Jackson). I don't really have an opinion on Karras vs. Ferentz, but I think one and not both likely make the final cut.

QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer
RB (4) R.Burkhead, S.Michel, J.Develin, J.White
WR (7) J.Edelman, C.Hogan, P.Dorsett, C.Patterson, K.Britt, M.Slater, E.Decker
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, J.Hollister, D.Allen
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, L.Waddle, T.Brown
DE (4) T.Flowers, A.Clayborn, D.Wise, D.Rivers
DT (5) M.Brown, D.Shelton, L.Guy, V.Valentine, A.Butler
ILB(3) D.Hightower, J.Bentley, C.Sam
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, M.Flowers, B.King
CB (6) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, E.Rowe, J.Jones, D.Dawson, J.Jackson
SS (3) P.Chung, N.Ebner, E.Pleasant
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
I think the punter's job is still Ryan Allen's.
I'm with RedOctober in thinking Bojorquez steals this job.

They'd be able to save a bit over a million this season swapping out punters and have Bojorquez on a minimum deal for 2019 and 2020 as well with Allen up for a new deal after this season.

Feel like if Bojorquez is even close to Allen in camp/preseason he gets the nod.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,059
Hingham, MA
I'm with RedOctober in thinking Bojorquez steals this job.

They'd be able to save a bit over a million this season swapping out punters and have Bojorquez on a minimum deal for 2019 and 2020 as well with Allen up for a new deal after this season.

Feel like if Bojorquez is even close to Allen in camp/preseason he gets the nod.
Seems tight, potentially, but I think they will go for the reliability factor. Reiss today:

Corey Bojorquez (undrafted, New Mexico) – The punter/holder has a stronger leg than incumbent Ryan Allen but hasn’t been as consistent. So it makes sense to think the Patriots will take advantage of more time to evaluate him in the preseason.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Here's where I'm at:
QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer
RB (6) S.Michel, R.Burkhead, J.Develin, J.White, B.Bolden, J.Hill - I kinda liked Ralph Webb for the last spot here but I think they will need a more established hand with Michel possibly missing time.
WR (6) C.Hogan, P.Dorsett, C.Patterson, K.Britt, M.Slater, B.Berrios (Edelman suspended) - Berrios vs McCarron vs Cyrus Jones comes down to punt returns - someone has to do it. I'm surprised how many folks have Decker and Britt here; I think they're competing for one spot
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, J.Hollister, R.Izzo - I have Izzo over Allen for money reasons but won't be surprised if they restructure Allen down
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) T.Brown, M.Cannon, I.Wynn, L.Waddle
DE (4) T.Flowers, A.Clayborn, D.Wise, D.Rivers - Geneo Grissom seems like the guy most likely to fill the Ross Ventrone transaction award
DT (4) M.Brown, D.Shelton, V.Valentine, L.Guy
ILB(3) D.Hightower, E.Roberts, C.Sam, N.Grigsby - Roberts and Bentley are competing for one spot; I gave the nod to the vet
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, M.Flowers, B.King - Langi a tough cut
CB (5) S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, D.Dawson, J.Jones, J.Jackson - Jason McCourty is my surprise cut candidate; if Rowe wins the starting job opposite Gilmore, youth / ST is just going to make more sense for those down-roster spots. They save $3 MM cutting him. Keion Crossen a tough cut.
SS (3) P.Chung, N.Ebner, J.Richards - I know we all hate Richards but I don't see enough competition to kick him off
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona, R.Allen - They don't save that much cutting Allen - $1.5 MM. I think Bojorquez will have to significantly outplay the vet
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,774
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer
RB (6) R.Burkhead, S.Michel, J.Develin, J.Hill, J.White, B.Bolden
WR (7) J.Edelman, C.Hogan, C.Patterson, K.Britt, M.Slater, B.Berrios, P.Dorsett
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.Hollister
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) M.Cannon, L.Waddle, T.Brown, I.Wynn
DE (4) T.Flowers, A.Clayborn, D.Rivers, D.Wise
DT (4) M.Brown, D.Shelton, L.Guy, V.Valentine
ILB(3) D.Hightower, C.Sam, E.Roberts
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, H.Langi, M.Flowers
CB (6) S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, D.Dawson, C.Jones, J.Jones, J.McCourty
SS (2) N.Ebner, P.Chung
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker

I feel like Decker is that same veteran tease that we get every year. Of the 7 I list I think the Edelman, Hogan, Patterson, Slater are locks. Dorsett is close to one. And I think they would not have drafted Berrios unless they thought they could fit him into the Edelman, Amendola role that they love. Agreed Britt is the one who would go if Decker stayed. Edge to Britt.

Every year I wonder if this is the year they turn the page from Bolden. I think that they will opt for one more year of consistency with a system guy they know who also plays ST.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
Bolden is unlikely to make the initial 53 man roster. He'll likely be cut and brought back in Edelmans' spot since Bolden doesn't have to go through waivers. They did the same thing with him when Brady was suspended.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Bolden is unlikely to make the initial 53 man roster. He'll likely be cut and brought back in Edelmans' spot since Bolden doesn't have to go through waivers. They did the same thing with him when Brady was suspended.
It was last year they did this, not 2016.

EDIT: I don't think they need to do this for a suspended player, but they do need to do something like this to put someone on IR-DTR. I guess we'll see if that's something they need. Bolden would be a good candidate.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
It was last year they did this, not 2016.

EDIT: I don't think they need to do this for a suspended player, but they do need to do something like this to put someone on IR-DTR. I guess we'll see if that's something they need. Bolden would be a good candidate.
You're right, I'm stupid.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Here's where I'm at:
QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer
RB (6) S.Michel, R.Burkhead, J.Develin, J.White, B.Bolden, J.Hill - I kinda liked Ralph Webb for the last spot here but I think they will need a more established hand with Michel possibly missing time.
WR (6) C.Hogan, P.Dorsett, C.Patterson, K.Britt, M.Slater, B.Berrios (Edelman suspended) - Berrios vs McCarron vs Cyrus Jones comes down to punt returns - someone has to do it. I'm surprised how many folks have Decker and Britt here; I think they're competing for one spot
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, J.Hollister, R.Izzo - I have Izzo over Allen for money reasons but won't be surprised if they restructure Allen down
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) T.Brown, M.Cannon, I.Wynn, L.Waddle
DE (4) T.Flowers, A.Clayborn, D.Wise, D.Rivers - Geneo Grissom seems like the guy most likely to fill the Ross Ventrone transaction award
DT (4) M.Brown, D.Shelton, V.Valentine, L.Guy
ILB(3) D.Hightower, E.Roberts, C.Sam, N.Grigsby - Roberts and Bentley are competing for one spot; I gave the nod to the vet
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, M.Flowers, B.King - Langi a tough cut
CB (5) S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, D.Dawson, J.Jones, J.Jackson - Jason McCourty is my surprise cut candidate; if Rowe wins the starting job opposite Gilmore, youth / ST is just going to make more sense for those down-roster spots. They save $3 MM cutting him. Keion Crossen a tough cut.
SS (3) P.Chung, N.Ebner, J.Richards - I know we all hate Richards but I don't see enough competition to kick him off
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona, R.Allen - They don't save that much cutting Allen - $1.5 MM. I think Bojorquez will have to significantly outplay the vet
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker
Reiss reportedly is channeling you on J Jackson and Jason McCourty.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/12/jason-mccourty-on-the-roster-bubble-in-new-england/
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
It's worth looking at how special teams PT was allocated last year:

Predominately ST guys:
S Jordan Richards
RB Brandon Bolden
CB Johnson Bademosi
Brandon King
K Stephen Gostkowski
Edge Geneo Grissom
WR Matt Slater
LS Joe Cardona
P Ryan Allen
S Nate Ebner / LB Nic Grigsby (Grigsby was signed after Ebner went down and basically filled the role)

Contributors who also played a lot of ST:
CB Jonathan Jones
LB Marquis Flowers
FB James Develin
TE Jacob Hollister
DL Lawrence Guy
S Patrick Chung
S Devin McCourty
Edge Cassius Marsh
RB Rex Burkhead
WR Danny Amendola
RB Dion Lewis


All these guys played at least 20% of ST snaps except Amendola / Lewis, who had key return roles. Patterson presumably replaced Lewis on KR, PR is an open battle between McCarron / Berrios / Cyrus Jones I guess, with Edelman likely serving as the secondary returner as he has in the past. Bademosi figures to be replaced by one of the young guys (C.Jones, JC Jackson, Keion Crossen, Duke Dawson). If we cut Richards, we can probably replace him with Grigsby. Grissom also a guy very much on the bubble. They might want to use guys like J.Jones, Hollister, Flowers, and Burkhead less on ST if they take on bigger O/D roles.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,059
Hingham, MA
SSS, it's just preseason, etc... but my god does Hoyer look awful. Obviously we were going to be effed no matter what if Brady gets hurt (newsflash!), but there has to be something out there better than Hoyer. I was one of his biggest backers in terms of being an adequate backup, thinking that if Brady missed a few games Hoyer could win a game or two, but what I've seen this preseason has me standing down from that.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
SSS, it's just preseason, etc... but my god does Hoyer look awful. Obviously we were going to be effed no matter what if Brady gets hurt (newsflash!), but there has to be something out there better than Hoyer. I was one of his biggest backers in terms of being an adequate backup, thinking that if Brady missed a few games Hoyer could win a game or two, but what I've seen this preseason has me standing down from that.
It started with him in San Francisco.

Somebody is likely to get Bridgewater from the Jets with both him and Darnold doing a nice job through 2 games. It’s not going to be us.

And as you noted, at this SB or bust stage we’re in, th backup does not matter for 2018.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
It started with him in San Francisco.

Somebody is likely to get Bridgewater from the Jets with both him and Darnold doing a nice job through 2 games. It’s not going to be us.

And as you noted, at this SB or bust stage we’re in, th backup does not matter for 2018.
This logic assumes a binary injury outcome where Brady either stays healthy or suffers a season-ending injury. There are plenty of injuries where Brady might miss, say, six games in the middle of the season and the performance of the backup QB has huge error bars (such as with Green Bay last year).
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
This logic assumes a binary injury outcome where Brady either stays healthy or suffers a season-ending injury. There are plenty of injuries where Brady might miss, say, six games in the middle of the season and the performance of the backup QB has huge error bars (such as with Green Bay last year).
Absolutely right.

In your scenario, a six-game hiatus could cost them hugely in seeding and in an extreme case, a playoff spot.

But at this point, what are the realistic options? Getting Brissett back from Indy? I don’t think that’s happening either.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,059
Hingham, MA
Absolutely right.

In your scenario, a six-game hiatus could cost them hugely in seeding and in an extreme case, a playoff spot.

But at this point, what are the realistic options? Getting Brissett back from Indy? I don’t think that’s happening either.
There are no realistic options. On August 17 Hoyer is clearly the best, and probably only, option as the backup.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
Can we just start a new thread for the upcoming discussion on Kaepernick? We all know what’s about to happen here now. We’ve done it at least five times already. It’s a completely wasteful discussion and will just side track a good thread. Let’s just stop it or move it now.
I'll take that as a no. Probably not in football shape anymore anyway.

Just a brief look at the NFC rosters... Mike Glennon maybe? Bridgewater if he gets cut?

... Yeah, they are stuck with Hoyer.
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,774
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
I'll take that as a no. Probably not in football shape anymore anyway.

Just a brief look at the NFC rosters... Mike Glennon maybe? Bridgewater if he gets cut?

... Yeah, they are stuck with Hoyer.
The other FA options are pretty weak too. Sanchez? Matt moore? TJ Yates?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,059
Hingham, MA
Names are irrelevant. Hoyer knows the system and playbook. If Brady goes down no one else is in position to run the offense regardless of skill level
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
It's easy to forget now, but Matt Cassel was awful in the 2008 preseason, like less than 5 yards per attempt with zero TD passes awful (and he played a lot because Brady didn't suit up for the preseason that year). I know Hoyer was bad in SF, too, but we're still talking about fairly small samples here.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I'll take that as a no. Probably not in football shape anymore anyway.

Just a brief look at the NFC rosters... Mike Glennon maybe? Bridgewater if he gets cut?

... Yeah, they are stuck with Hoyer.
Nate Sudfeld? Will Philly keep 3 QBs? I know BB had a long track record of trades with Philly over the Andy Reid and Chip Kelly days; does that carry over?