For all we know, Ainge has started using workouts as a smokescreen after the last two drafts of notably making “surprise” selections of guys he worked out twice.
I don't necessarily agree that it's fools gold. Take a guy like Trae Young.....he's going to thrive in the way a Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf did in this league but he defends like him and Isaiah combined. He's your guy to fill seats and maybe become relevant so for a lottery team he fits the bill. When you're competing for championships you are drafting for need and you can never have enough tough minded and physical defensive players to fit into our system. Ainge doesn't need to hit a home run here but drafting someone capable of contributing in a limited role is extremely valuable especially on a cheap rookie contract.I think it’s a fool’s errand to try to find another Marcus Smart. A defensive stopper is always useful to chase but Smart’s a really unique player in ways both good and bad. That uncanny ability to make gutsy plays when the chips are all in seems like a type of innate talent that you aren’t likely to find even if you search it out.
You can never have enough fire power either though. No one would complain about having a Lou Williams off the bench. Even drafting that late, I think the Celtics should take the best player available and not draft for need. That doesn't necessarily mean draft the player they think will be the best in 2022 either, it could mean drafting the player who they think could contribute the most in 2018-19. They shouldn't pigeonhole themselves into finding a Marcus Smart clone if there's another player available that offers more overall value.I don't necessarily agree that it's fools gold. Take a guy like Trae Young.....he's going to thrive in the way a Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf did in this league but he defends like him and Isaiah combined. He's your guy to fill seats and maybe become relevant so for a lottery team he fits the bill. When you're competing for championships you are drafting for need and you can never have enough tough minded and physical defensive players to fit into our system. Ainge doesn't need to hit a home run here but drafting someone capable of contributing in a limited role is extremely valuable especially on a cheap rookie contract.
Those types are rarely ready to contribute or capable of seeing the floor for contenders though. Scorers need minutes for their rhythm or else your variance is huge with them only getting 1-2 shots at most during their brief stint while you give up defense/rebounding, etc. This type of player can really hurt you in a short rotation (see: Fultz in his final two playoff games last year).You can never have enough fire power either though. No one would complain about having a Lou Williams off the bench. Even drafting that late, I think the Celtics should take the best player available and not draft for need. That doesn't necessarily mean draft the player they think will be the best in 2022 either, it could mean drafting the player who they think could contribute the most in 2018-19. They shouldn't pigeonhole themselves into finding a Marcus Smart clone if there's another player available that offers more overall value.
Yeah, I think this is the case more than ever this year. Jevon Carter seems like the safest bet for "capable of contributing in a limited role." I just can't imagine that a guy who is capable of running a second unit, and defends and shoots like he does, won't have a role in the NBA, but with his upside limited due to age and poor measurables, he should be there at 27 even though I think he'll be ready to contribute from day one. Jalen Brunson certainly can make a case as that guy, with Kenrich Williams or Bates-Diop if you're looking for more size, and they may be available as well, but after the top 16 or so guys, this draft has a deep pool of guys that I find pretty interesting in differing aspects in terms of upside, but hard to sort.I don't necessarily agree that it's fools gold. Take a guy like Trae Young.....he's going to thrive in the way a Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf did in this league but he defends like him and Isaiah combined. He's your guy to fill seats and maybe become relevant so for a lottery team he fits the bill. When you're competing for championships you are drafting for need and you can never have enough tough minded and physical defensive players to fit into our system. Ainge doesn't need to hit a home run here but drafting someone capable of contributing in a limited role is extremely valuable especially on a cheap rookie contract.
The first used a draft analytics model to predict whether a prospect would be an All-Star, an NBA starter, a role player, or a bust. Out of all the eligible players, Carter came in as the No. 17 player in the draft. He had an 8-percent chance of being an All-Star, 24-percent chance of being an NBA starter, and a 37-percent chance of being a role player. His all-star potential was higher than likely lottery picks Mo Bamba and Kevin Knox. His bust potential - 31-percent - was the highest among anyone in the top twenty, though.
Yeah, but that's usually because the players who can create their own shots are already gone by the time those players are drafted. You aren't wrong though, they do generally take a little while longer to consistently contribute but you don't pass up on a Kyle Kuzma at 27 because he doesn't play defense. On the right team and the right scheme, you can even lessen the damage a Kyle Kuzma does on defense.Those types are rarely ready to contribute or capable of seeing the floor for contenders though. Scorers need minutes for their rhythm or else your variance is huge with them only getting 1-2 shots at most during their brief stint while you give up defense/rebounding, etc. This type of player can really hurt you in a short rotation (see: Fultz in his final two playoff games last year).
This is why you see those teams drafting players who are capable of giving you second unit minutes without that variance......guys who can defend while pretty much staying out of the way offensively and maybe give you a hustle play or two during their time. The Raptors did this with Siakam, the Warriors with non-scorers Looney and Bell, and Ainge has a long history of these types of players in Big Baby/Powe in our past runs and in these past couple drafts with Ojeleye, Kadeem Allen, and Zizic. I expect that to continue this week.
Timely! Interesting in that the ESPN piece if references draws conclusions that are pretty much the opposite of what I thought- they peg his ceiling as relatively high, but have his bust potential high as well.
Finding good players in the second round of the NBA draft is more art than science. There are no sure things; everyone left on the board has significant flaws. The key is identifying prospects with clear strengths, and then developing them into roles that hide their weaknesses. That type of team-building doesn’t happen much in college, when coaches often try to reel in as many elite recruits as possible without worrying about how they fit together. But players caught up in those situations in the NCAA, like Jarred Vanderbilt (Kentucky) and Malik Newman (Kansas via Mississippi State), can end up being draft steals for NBA teams.
Add Hami Diallo from UK and Bruce Brown from Miami as options at 27 as well.Possible second round targets (assuming there's any truth to the rumormongering about Boston being interested in buying a #2). These are all guys rated in the 25-50 range of the draft (since projected late first rounders regularly slip into the second).
I've already discussed Omari Spellman, so I'll spare you another recitation. I'm not wild about Grayson Allen, except as a possible long-term Rozier replacement, but you can put him on as implied on the list below.
Aside from that these are guys that I've seen (mostly) linked to Boston or that fit a known draft habit. I've seen nothing linking them to Frazier, but I really like him so I'm putting him there. I've seen no evidence that Jarred Vanderbilt has worked out for Boston, but rumors that they are interested in him, so he's included. I have De'Anthony Melton here only because he fits another Ainge draft-type, guys highly rated in high school that didn't pan out for one reason or another.
- Jacob Evans- Cincinnati: The good, he's got a good package of size and length, solid three point shooter and FT shooter. Aggressive defender. The bad? The release point on the jumper's low, so he's strictly an other guy on the floor level offensive player. Not much of a dribbler or finisher. Quickness isn't the best either. Still projectable as a rotation wing.
- Melvin Frazier- Tulane: A personal favorite of mine. The Good? 6'6" with a 7'2" wingspan and an 8'9" standing reach. Really busts ass on the court with a lot of untapped defensive potential with that insane length. Also a really good shooter that profiles as a Robert Covington type. The bad? He dribbles like a white man on heroin (OK, maybe not quite that bad, but still ...). He's also about to turn 22, is still pretty slight (195-200 tops), and doesn't have a lot of physical projection left. Get him to 215-220 and he's a valuable rotation player. If he could dribble he'd be a quality starter.
- De'Anthony Melton- USC: An early casualty of the post-Pitino NCAA clean-up. The Good? Avery Bradley v2.0. The bad? Avery Bradley v2.0. Right down to the handle. His handle's a little better than Avery, but still not very good.
- Josh Okogie- Georgia Tech: The good, he's a really hard nosed defensive guard that's a little longer than Marcus Smart (though he lacks the bulk). The Bad? Takes a lot of terrible shots. He could develop, long term, into a 3 & D guy, he's a good three point shooter at the college level and certainly shoots free throws well. But he has a weird, low release on the jumpshot which means that he may need to rebuild it in the NBA. If he fixes the shot though (which I'm skeptical of), he could be a really valuable rotation player
- Billy Preston- Points Unknown: The good, a prototypical modern big Long and athletic, his standing reach and size mean that he should be able to play center, while still being athletic enough to handle switches (his lane agility times at the combine were pretty good). The bad? He's the International Man of Mystery™ after a car accident in a car of suspicious (read, supplied by a KU booster) origin triggered an NCAA investigation. Which was closed when he fled for the Bosnian League. Which he left after three games. He was considered a first round talent, though. But he cetrainly fits the Ainge pattern of looking for high school all-americans in the second round.
- Jarred Vanderbilt- Kentucky: The good? Insanely long wing (7'1" wingspan 9' standing reach) that explodes off the floor and has great anticipation when the ball bounces off the rim (he's going to be a 6'8" Avery Bradley in this regard). The bad? His shots so rarely find the hole that it will be a miracle if he ever fathers kids. His shooting form is so bad that even Aaron Gordon looks away in horror when he shoots the ball. There is a greater than zero chance that he one day develops into a merely bad shooter, but I wouldn't count on it.
- Kenrich Williams- TCU: The good, another really long wing that fits in with the modern game. He profiles well as a 3&D guy due to his tenacity on defense and his ability to knock down open threes. The bad? He's pushing 24, still needs to fill out more, mediocre ball handler, and not much of a shooter off the bounce or even on tough spot up threes.
I'd think that Danny would REALLY have to love one of the Bamba/Bagley/Jackson trio to consider moving Jaylen for one of them.Could Jaylen be in play to move up?
What would a Package built around Jaylen+ Celts draft pick and or the Clippers pick Get?
Say Jaylen +Celts first rounder this year + Clippers 2019 Pick for the 4/5/6 This year.
Would that be enough?
We would need to replace Jaylen at some point for the future (Hayward replaces him short term). But we get a Quality Big and push the Salary cap Crunch a year or 2 further down the road.
Starters of KI,GH,Tatum, Horford and Baynes/" Big ManPick".
Resign Smart and let Morris and Rozier bomb away while the rest of the second unit play hellacious defense for 20 mins a game.
Tatum/Big Man/Grizz21 becomes the new core after KI, GH and Big Al retire or move on.
I really like Jaylen but it just seems that quality G/F Wings are easier to find then big men (except maybe THIS year), especially within the 2019 draft class.
I think Jaylen alone gets you #4 from Memphis. Probably #6 from Orlando for that matter. Atlanta would also kill for a player like Jaylen.Say Jaylen +Celts first rounder this year + Clippers 2019 Pick for the 4/5/6 This year.
Would that be enough?
Great summary. I think I'm pretty much on the Evans/Frazier wagon, too (for the Warriors), from the clips I've seen and blurbs I've read. I found this take on Frazier and his fit for the Warriors particularly amusing...Possible second round targets (assuming there's any truth to the rumormongering about Boston being interested in buying a #2). These are all guys rated in the 25-50 range of the draft (since projected late first rounders regularly slip into the second).
I've already discussed Omari Spellman, so I'll spare you another recitation. I'm not wild about Grayson Allen, except as a possible long-term Rozier replacement, but you can put him on as implied on the list below.
Aside from that these are guys that I've seen (mostly) linked to Boston or that fit a known draft habit. I've seen nothing linking them to Frazier, but I really like him so I'm putting him there. I've seen no evidence that Jarred Vanderbilt has worked out for Boston, but rumors that they are interested in him, so he's included. I have De'Anthony Melton here only because he fits another Ainge draft-type, guys highly rated in high school that didn't pan out for one reason or another.
- Jacob Evans- Cincinnati: The good, he's got a good package of size and length, solid three point shooter and FT shooter. Aggressive defender. The bad? The release point on the jumper's low, so he's strictly an other guy on the floor level offensive player. Not much of a dribbler or finisher. Quickness isn't the best either. Still projectable as a rotation wing.
- Melvin Frazier- Tulane: A personal favorite of mine. The Good? 6'6" with a 7'2" wingspan and an 8'9" standing reach. Really busts ass on the court with a lot of untapped defensive potential with that insane length. Also a really good shooter that profiles as a Robert Covington type. The bad? He dribbles like a white man on heroin (OK, maybe not quite that bad, but still ...). He's also about to turn 22, is still pretty slight (195-200 tops), and doesn't have a lot of physical projection left. Get him to 215-220 and he's a valuable rotation player. If he could dribble he'd be a quality starter.
- De'Anthony Melton- USC: An early casualty of the post-Pitino NCAA clean-up. The Good? Avery Bradley v2.0. The bad? Avery Bradley v2.0. Right down to the handle. His handle's a little better than Avery, but still not very good.
- Josh Okogie- Georgia Tech: The good, he's a really hard nosed defensive guard that's a little longer than Marcus Smart (though he lacks the bulk). The Bad? Takes a lot of terrible shots. He could develop, long term, into a 3 & D guy, he's a good three point shooter at the college level and certainly shoots free throws well. But he has a weird, low release on the jumpshot which means that he may need to rebuild it in the NBA. If he fixes the shot though (which I'm skeptical of), he could be a really valuable rotation player
- Billy Preston- Points Unknown: The good, a prototypical modern big Long and athletic, his standing reach and size mean that he should be able to play center, while still being athletic enough to handle switches (his lane agility times at the combine were pretty good). The bad? He's the International Man of Mystery™ after a car accident in a car of suspicious (read, supplied by a KU booster) origin triggered an NCAA investigation. Which was closed when he fled for the Bosnian League. Which he left after three games. He was considered a first round talent, though. But he cetrainly fits the Ainge pattern of looking for high school all-americans in the second round.
- Jarred Vanderbilt- Kentucky: The good? Insanely long wing (7'1" wingspan 9' standing reach) that explodes off the floor and has great anticipation when the ball bounces off the rim (he's going to be a 6'8" Avery Bradley in this regard). The bad? His shots so rarely find the hole that it will be a miracle if he ever fathers kids. His shooting form is so bad that even Aaron Gordon looks away in horror when he shoots the ball. There is a greater than zero chance that he one day develops into a merely bad shooter, but I wouldn't count on it.
- Kenrich Williams- TCU: The good, another really long wing that fits in with the modern game. He profiles well as a 3&D guy due to his tenacity on defense and his ability to knock down open threes. The bad? He's pushing 24, still needs to fill out more, mediocre ball handler, and not much of a shooter off the bounce or even on tough spot up threes.
I was thinking Atlanta myself. Jaylen is a Georgia boy and they could really use a guy like him. #3 gives you your chance at any of the bigs or even potentially a shot at Doncic. Not sure if I’d do it because this team is built to win now but there is some merit to the idea of getting your future big in 2018 and then using your cache of 2019 picks to backfill Jaylen on the wing.I think Jaylen alone gets you #4 from Memphis. Probably #6 from Orlando for that matter. Atlanta would also kill for a player like Jaylen.
I'd be interested to see the method used to come to this conclusion as well and how do they define a "bust?" I'm not a huge Carter guy so to me the 8% All-Star is laughable but he has a real good chance to bounce around the league for a decade.Timely! Interesting in that the ESPN piece if references draws conclusions that are pretty much the opposite of what I thought- they peg his ceiling as relatively high, but have his bust potential high as well.
Jackson's defense lapses and bonehead passes wouldn't seem like an Ainge/Stevens/Niednagel type of pick.I'd think that Danny would REALLY have to love one of the Bamba/Bagley/Jackson trio to consider moving Jaylen for one of them.
Agreed... in fact, I'd think Atlanta would have to throw in -more- to the pick, since Jaylen's a 'proven' young player whose upside is still growing.I was thinking Atlanta myself. Jaylen is a Georgia boy and they could really use a guy like him. #3 gives you your chance at any of the bigs or even potentially a shot at Doncic. Not sure if I’d do it because this team is built to win now but there is some merit to the idea of getting your future big in 2018 and then using your cache of 2019 picks to backfill Jaylen on the wing.
Ultimately, I doubt I would do it because Jaylen is a sure thing whereas these picks in 3-6 range are all unproven.
It's the dribbling, his handle is unbelievably bad for someone that old.So … despite the fact that he's an excellent shooter, he’s also a fantastic defender with great length and athleticism? Call me crazy, but I can live with those trade-offs, on balance.
While I completely agree that trading Brown for #3 this year is crazy, the notion that this year is just like last year and the year before is not accurate. This is clearly not a normal year in terms of depth of top tier talent going into the draft. Maybe that’s not exactly what you’re saying but it’s a sentiment that keeps being repeated by some so it’s not clear to me.Wait, am I losing my mind here?
People are suggesting trading Jaylen Brown for a pick like #3, #4 #5 or even #6?!?! Someone even suggested ADDING assets to Brown to get one of those picks?
Do you realize Jaylen Brown was drafted #3 right? And that he's greatly exceeded expectations so far?
This is the classic draft hype. Every year, there's a ton of coverage for the NBA draft and players get hyped up beyond belief.
I'm not saying high draft picks aren't important, in fact they're vital to winning in the NBA. But remember, that Jaylen Brown was a high draft pick as well. His ceiling is just as high, if not higher than any of these guys. He's 21 years old and just scored 18 ppg in the playoffs with great defense.
I'm not trading Jaylen Brown for the #1 overall pick in this draft, and it's not even close.
And I'm someone who would definitely be willing to trade Brown for Kawhi if Kawhi would sign an extension. Trading Brown for a draft pick straight up is insanity
Yup. I think the simple reality is that there is no reason to trade Jaylen unless the great white whale from New Orleans emerges. A Jaylen for #3/#19 deal is reasonable from a pure value standpoint but it doesn't make sense for the Celtics. I would love to leverage the Sac pick and, say, Rozier for a top 6-7 pick this year but that doesn't seem plausible.Agreed... in fact, I'd think Atlanta would have to throw in -more- to the pick, since Jaylen's a 'proven' young player whose upside is still growing.
I'm just not sure how much you'd have to throw in to make it worthwhile to Boston so they can contend now too.
I'm with you. I could see Rozier and picks to move up, but only if we get into the top 5 or so. No way I'm trading Brown for picks. Not sure I'd include him in a package for Leonard given the number of uncertainties around KL.Wait, am I losing my mind here?
People are suggesting trading Jaylen Brown for a pick like #3, #4 #5 or even #6?!?! Someone even suggested ADDING assets to Brown to get one of those picks?
Do you realize Jaylen Brown was drafted #3 right? And that he's greatly exceeded expectations so far?
This is the classic draft hype. Every year, there's a ton of coverage for the NBA draft and players get hyped up beyond belief.
I'm not saying high draft picks aren't important, in fact they're vital to winning in the NBA. But remember, that Jaylen Brown was a high draft pick as well. His ceiling is just as high, if not higher than any of these guys. He's 21 years old and just scored 18 ppg in the playoffs with great defense.
I'm not trading Jaylen Brown for the #1 overall pick in this draft, and it's not even close.
And I'm someone who would definitely be willing to trade Brown for Kawhi if Kawhi would sign an extension. Trading Brown for a draft pick straight up is insanity
Yeah, there's a really practical reason for considering Jaylen untouchable (and a reason that I wouldn't deal him for anyone in this draft pool). Namely that he's all about networking with the current generation entering the NBA and he's so good that when the Horford/Hayward/Irving group ages out/leaves, he's going to be the guy that recruits others to Boston's cause. Guys that good and that networked you don't deal unless the player available is someone like the Unibrower.Yup. I think the simple reality is that there is no reason to trade Jaylen unless the great white whale from New Orleans emerges. A Jaylen for #3/#19 deal is reasonable from a pure value standpoint but it doesn't make sense for the Celtics.
I addressed that in the post. It looks like there is credibility to that handle due to the vast number of credible basketball people that follow it. From the bio, it looks like a guy that worked for Chris Sheridan's former website.Any credibility to that Twitter handle?
Interesting thought..... Namely that he's all about networking with the current generation entering the NBA and he's so good that when the Horford/Hayward/Irving group ages out/leaves, he's going to be the guy that recruits others to Boston's cause. Guys that good and that networked you don't deal unless the player available is someone like the Unibrower.
Well, he thinks the Celtics offer for Kawhi would be Hayward or Irving AND Brown AND a pick.I addressed that in the post. It looks like there is credibility to that handle due to the vast number of credible basketball people that follow it. From the bio, it looks like a guy that worked for Chris Sheridan's former website.
Makes sense. Of course, that weakness is somewhat minimized on the Warriors, who are loaded with ballhandlers and passers but comparatively thin in reliable catch-and-shoot guys outside of the three obvious ones (especially with Swaggy likely to move on).It's the dribbling, his handle is unbelievably bad for someone that old.
Is there any advantage to leaking you’re trying to move up for the wrong player? Perhaps to stop other teams from trying to foil your attempt to steal their binky?So given the way Danny operates, this means he has no interest in Doncic
I totally agree that the current roster should be off limits (save Rozier) for a trade into the top of the draft. If Danny isn't sold on Sacramento and Memphis being terrible, Doncic, or one of the bigs, fills a nice long term gap. Five years from now, a 'big 3' of someone this year + JT + JB is mighty appealing. Oh and we're also really freaking good for the next couple of years too.My only remote interest in trading up is if they're able to consolidate future picks + maybe Rozier to do so. Ainge hasn't been cultivating a team of elite wings to trade the cheapest one for a rookie in a go-for-it year.
What if Doncic can't defend? What if his shot isn't squared away yet? What if any of the bigs take the requisite amount of time it takes for pretty much all bigs to develop? Wouldn't be ideal to get to the Finals and realize "Oh, they're really picking on Rookie X, it's a shame we don't have another long, strong, athletic wing out there instead."
This is a terrible idea unless the only assets on the table are future lotto tickets. Maybe Memphis really wants the Jeff Green pick back. Otherwise, forget it.
Just to muddy the waters, I guess. My bigger point is that Danny is like the anti-Dombrowski, in that he rarely shows his hand until he plays it.Is there any advantage to leaking you’re trying to move up for the wrong player? Perhaps to stop other teams from trying to foil your attempt to steal their binky?
Just thinking out loud.
From what I've gleaned from the talking heads, it seems to be a combo of (1) a perceived limited upside due to lack of explosive athleticism and crazy length; and (2) lack of an exact NBA comp who people can squint and imagine him becoming. Ayton could be .... Hakeem meets the Brow! Doncic could be ... well, since "comps" are forbidden to cross racial lines, I guess Manu?I don't really know what Luka Doncic has done up to this point to lose the consensus #1 pick label.
I think the reality is that while Tatum is basically 99% untradeable, Jaylen is probably like 95%. Ainge isn't trading him unless it's part of a major move for a star. He already won the lottery game and sure he's perfectly fine taking a year off. With that said, I'm sure he's deal hunting and is doing his due diligence to gauge the cost of a top 2-6 pick. The real X factor here is what our internal projections are for the Sac 2019 and Mem 2019-2021 picks.My only remote interest in trading up is if they're able to consolidate future picks + maybe Rozier to do so. Ainge hasn't been cultivating a team of elite wings to trade the cheapest one for a rookie in a go-for-it year.
What if Doncic can't defend? What if his shot isn't squared away yet? What if any of the bigs take the requisite amount of time it takes for pretty much all bigs to develop? Wouldn't be ideal to get to the Finals and realize "Oh, they're really picking on Rookie X, it's a shame we don't have another long, strong, athletic wing out there instead."
This is a terrible idea unless the only assets on the table are future lotto tickets. Maybe Memphis really wants the Jeff Green pick back. Otherwise, forget it.
Right. I meant that this would only be necessary if word of the Celtics moving up had already gotten out among the other teams somehow.Just to muddy the waters, I guess. My bigger point is that Danny is like the anti-Dombrowski, in that he rarely shows his hand until he plays it.
I've heard the Harden comp for Doncic; given his size and strength and his excellent vision. The athleticism critiques are repetitive every year. In the draft there are always some players who are complete athletic freaks and everyone else that isn't sporting a 40' vertical is evaluated as being not-quite-athletic-enough. Last year people said that about Jayson Tatum and lo-and-behold the guy was clearly athletic enough to be an NBA player.From what I've gleaned from the talking heads, it seems to be a combo of (1) a perceived limited upside due to lack of explosive athleticism and crazy length; and (2) lack of an exact NBA comp who people can squint and imagine him becoming. Ayton could be .... Hakeem meets the Brow! Doncic could be ... well, since "comps" are forbidden to cross racial lines, I guess Manu?
I mean, Manu's actually a pretty exciting comp — I consider him the best shooting guard since Jordan, on a per minute basis anyway — but I'm not sure the average NBA scout would share my ranking. For me, yeah, if you can get a taller, slightly more rugged, age 20 Manu, that's an absolute home run of a #1 pick.