Then I'm more confused. You're predicting he can change the way he hits and that will allow him to hit .320 in a season, but won't be able to repeat it?Lots of guys have a .320 year .... not saying a career thing.
Then I'm more confused. You're predicting he can change the way he hits and that will allow him to hit .320 in a season, but won't be able to repeat it?Lots of guys have a .320 year .... not saying a career thing.
Why not just have 2 DHs? One is your pitcher and one is any other player on defense who isn't allowed to hit.Getting a great reminder tonight of how unbelievable Jose Iglesias can be when he's healthy, reminded me of my favorite talk radio sports show host from back in my youth. He always argued that, "I want to see excellence, when I'm paying professional sports prices." Consistent with that, he always advocated for baseball to go the way of football, and have full substitution on offense and defense. He argued that this would make two-way players even more valuable, and allow more players to be major leaguers, which is good economically for them and in general, so should be supported by the union given the need to increase roster size. Despite almost always favoring tradition over change, that was always something that appealed to me.
Watching JBJ and Iglesias play defense is worth the price of admission. Watching them hit is worth timing your trip to the concession stand. I wonder if in baseball's never-ending attempt to engage the attention span of millennials, this would ever come up on the radar of the new commissioner?
This. The "once out, never back" rule seems like a relic of the days when small pitching staff sizes allowed for 6- or 7-man benches.Or figure out a way to let players re-enter the game.
Use Little League rules...re-insertion allowed only if it's into the original lineup slot. Might have to come with some sort of minimum number of outs the sub must play before the original player can return (say 9 defensive outs) so there's some consequence to substituting. For example, if the Sox pinch hit for JBJ against a LOOGY in the 6th, they couldn't just re-insert him into the lineup in the next half-inning to play defense. His replacement would have to take the field in some capacity.But if you allowed them back, how would you prevent the Angels from giving Mike Trout 9 at bats a game? Only allowing them to be inserted back in the game once, and/or in their original lineup slot?
Shorthand....you can only re-enter once?Re-entry has been in the softball rule book for over 30 years. The starter can only go back in the game in the place in the batting order they were in originally. And a sub can go back in too...in either case next time he is replaced he's done for the day.
Example: Leon gets a base hit, is replaced on the bases by Holt. When the inning is over, Leon goes back in to catcher. Later on in the game, Leon gets another hit, Holt runs for him again. Leon is done for the day. End of inning, Vasquez goes in to catch. Holt's now done too.
He'd be a solid asset at a .711 OPS. Hopefully he can regain his form. It's a bit strange to think he would permanently lose it at this age. He just turned 28 years old.He’s approaching 2000 career AB’s and has a career .711 OPS and falling fast. He’s probably something we need to look at fixing at the trade deadline.
Lin has a 14 game hitting streak and continues to hit the ball in the air. I doubt they'd do it, though. There's always Brock Holt too, assuming Pedroia is back and Devers doesn't fall off a cliff.He’s approaching 2000 career AB’s and has a career .711 OPS and falling fast. He’s probably something we need to look at fixing at the trade deadline.
A tease? Or did his time off fix some issues mechanically only for them to resurface (or for new ones to arise)? JBJ has a long swing so it doesn’t surprise me that he constantly has to work on this stuff more than most players.The late May resurgence was just another JBJ tease - 121/231/212/443 with 12 K's in 33 June at-bats.
I wonder if/when Pedroia comes back, he (DP) sees some time (maybe even half his games) at DH with JDM playing LF and AB playing CF. If they are ahead, then JBJ comes in as a late-inning defensive replacement for JDM.Lin has a 14 game hitting streak and continues to hit the ball in the air. I doubt they'd do it, though. There's always Brock Holt too, assuming Pedroia is back and Devers doesn't fall off a cliff.
Good thing is, if they decide to fix the JBJ issue, it doesn't have to be with a CF since you can just slide Ben10 over.
Seen this one before - blow a lead, and instead of your clean up hitter coming up in extras, it's a banjo hitting defensive replacement or pinch runner.....I wonder if/when Pedroia comes back, he (DP) sees some time (maybe even half his games) at DH with JDM playing LF and AB playing CF. If they are ahead, then JBJ comes in as a late-inning defensive replacement for JDM.
I guess it depends on what you think his true talent is. He was good from Aug 2015 to July 2016 and for about 2 months in 2017 but outside of that, he's been pretty mediocre. If he was just some generic 28 year old with a career .711 OPS in 2000 PA, I don't think anyone would be surprised if he lost his skills. Of course, his career isn't very normal.He'd be a solid asset at a .711 OPS. Hopefully he can regain his form. It's a bit strange to think he would permanently lose it at this age. He just turned 28 years old.
I would wait. He's hitting the ball hard.Depending on how you look at it, you'd either want to cut bait or wait for that hot streak to happen.
It's a good thing he's not the designated hitter for the 2018 Boston Red Sox or we would be in deep shit. He is an elite defensive centerfielder with extremely volatile hitting results. Rather than looking at his offense in a vacuum, how about looking at his overall defensive/offensive/baserunning performance relative to other CF's and other members of the 2018 Red Sox team first and then seeing if a "trade deadline" upgrade is needed.He’s approaching 2000 career AB’s and has a career .711 OPS and falling fast. He’s probably something we need to look at fixing at the trade deadline.
So he'll cost what, $9M next year? Meaning he needs to be worth around 1 WAR. Averaging B-R and Fangraphs, he's been worth:His salary is $6.1M this year, and while it’s not very high and he’s probably unlikely to see much of a raise in arbitration, a better option this offseason may be letting him walk, picking up a cheap DH somewhere, and putting whatever other savings towards Sale/Betts.
There’s still time for him to show something, of course.
This is my takeaway. At least for this year. That might change in 2019, depending on his raise. But at least once a game it seems like he’s stinging the ball right at someone. And this data shows why it seems that way.I would wait. He's hitting the ball hard.
2015-2018, wOBA: .355, .354, .313, .260.
2015, 2018, xwOBA: .289, .333, .320, .319.
Exit velocity: 88.5, 90.1, .88.1, 91.0.
The .059 point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA (a statistic assembled from statcast data on balls in play) is pretty glaring. There's a lot in there that looks promising. I'd say that as long as he's keeping his WAR above 0, the upside is worth waiting for.
I agree on evaluating players on total value. But with two options available on the team already who would provide plus center field defense and plus to plus plus bats, you might get more total value out of shifting Betts or Benintendi to center, playing JD in LF where his defense may not hurt you very much, or bringing in what should be an easier to find and less expensive LF/DH type, and trading Bradley for something. That something may even be the corner outfielder that effectively replaces him. If his hitting doesn't bounce back, this option becomes more and more sensible.So he'll cost what, $9M next year? Meaning he needs to be worth around 1 WAR. Averaging B-R and Fangraphs, he's been worth:
Granted this year has been replacement level so far, but you're confident enough that he won't be worth 1 WAR next year that you'd rather save the $9M?
- 2018 - 0.1 so far, 0.1 extended to 500 PA
- 2017 - 2.6
- 2016 - 5.4
- 2015 - 2.1, 4.0 extended to 500 PA
- 2014 - 0.4, 0.5 extended to 500 PA
- 2013 - negative 0.3, negative 1.2 extended to 500 PA.
The Sox are not going to, under any circumstances, "let him walk". If they decide they don't want him, they will trade him. Plus defenders that are still a couple of years from free agency have value.His salary is $6.1M this year, and while it’s not very high and he’s probably unlikely to see much of a raise in arbitration, a better option this offseason may be letting him walk, picking up a cheap DH somewhere, and putting whatever other savings towards Sale/Betts.
There’s still time for him to show something, of course.
I dunno. If we knew he would give the team 1 WAR over the course of 140ish games, it seems like a waste of 9 mil. There would have to be better options for that price.So he'll cost what, $9M next year? Meaning he needs to be worth around 1 WAR. Averaging B-R and Fangraphs, he's been worth:
Granted this year has been replacement level so far, but you're confident enough that he won't be worth 1 WAR next year that you'd rather save the $9M?
- 2018 - 0.1 so far, 0.1 extended to 500 PA
- 2017 - 2.6
- 2016 - 5.4
- 2015 - 2.1, 4.0 extended to 500 PA
- 2014 - 0.4, 0.5 extended to 500 PA
- 2013 - negative 0.3, negative 1.2 extended to 500 PA.
I don't know if the $9m arb estimate being thrown around is correct, but at that price tag I think the face value assumption that he's worth a tender gets pretty questionable if he continues to suck it up the rest of the year. Probable with a best case trade scenario, if it even gets that far, that plays out a lot like the much debated Buchholz decision.The Sox are not going to, under any circumstances, "let him walk". If they decide they don't want him, they will trade him. Plus defenders that are still a couple of years from free agency have value.
Since there are only 9 spots in a lineup and 25 roster spots, yes. The money is secondary to playing someone who is barely above replacement.So he'll cost what, $9M next year? Meaning he needs to be worth around 1 WAR. Averaging B-R and Fangraphs, he's been worth:
Granted this year has been replacement level so far, but you're confident enough that he won't be worth 1 WAR next year that you'd rather save the $9M?
- 2018 - 0.1 so far, 0.1 extended to 500 PA
- 2017 - 2.6
- 2016 - 5.4
- 2015 - 2.1, 4.0 extended to 500 PA
- 2014 - 0.4, 0.5 extended to 500 PA
- 2013 - negative 0.3, negative 1.2 extended to 500 PA.
This is my position too. Whiffs are still a bit up, mostly on fastballs which he used to crush, but he’s not seeing appreciably harder fastballs than he used to. Leads me to believe he’s a tweak away.I would wait. He's hitting the ball hard.
2015-2018, wOBA: .355, .354, .313, .260.
2015, 2018, xwOBA: .289, .333, .320, .319.
Exit velocity: 88.5, 90.1, .88.1, 91.0.
The .059 point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA (a statistic assembled from statcast data on balls in play) is pretty glaring. There's a lot in there that looks promising. I'd say that as long as he's keeping his WAR above 0, the upside is worth waiting for.
He's had almost a full season of suck since his last really hot streak in June and early July of last year.My guess is that it will take an exceptionally long period of suck at the plate with no relief for Dombrowski to move him.
Yep -- and if he continues to suck for the rest of the year with no real hot streaks to speak of, I suspect DD will try to move him during the offseason.He's had almost a full season of suck since his last really hot streak in June and early July of last year.
I think the "value of 1.0 WAR" is more of a hindsight number, as in "this is what teams paid for in free agency" - and not some sort of guideline for what teams should aim to pay a player. No one if lining up to pay $9M/win - and I'd argue any player getting paid $9M/win is a massive, massive disappointment.So he'll cost what, $9M next year? Meaning he needs to be worth around 1 WAR. Averaging B-R and Fangraphs, he's been worth:
Granted this year has been replacement level so far, but you're confident enough that he won't be worth 1 WAR next year that you'd rather save the $9M?
- 2018 - 0.1 so far, 0.1 extended to 500 PA
- 2017 - 2.6
- 2016 - 5.4
- 2015 - 2.1, 4.0 extended to 500 PA
- 2014 - 0.4, 0.5 extended to 500 PA
- 2013 - negative 0.3, negative 1.2 extended to 500 PA.
Yeah, given the free agent market we saw last season, I think it would be a mistake to use the average $WAR as a benchmark for value. Seems like we are back in a bifurcated market like 2013 or 2002 where the real superstars will still get their 5 year, $100+ million contact, but players like Jackie Bradley are getting squeezed hard. Adam Lind has been a phenomenal example of a solid platoon DH/1B for 3 straight seasons and he’s in the minor leagues. Mitch Moreland is A gold glove 1B and a more consistent bat than JBj, but he got $6 million only. No way you pay $9 million for.Bradley in this market.I dunno. If we knew he would give the team 1 WAR over the course of 140ish games, it seems like a waste of 9 mil. There would have to be better options for that price.
Is Bryce Harper worth a $500MM? Neither of those guys. Pujols, Josh Hamilton, A-Rod are just a couple names that jump off the page of massive contracts that did not end well.As great as Sale has been, how many teams would have been willing to pay him $170 over the past three seasons? Realistically, he gets 60-65% of that number. Is anyone going to pay Mike Trout $70M per year?
From what I remember, they say streaky players are actually more valuable.I love the guy, but what happens if he is off in the playoffs? do you bench him? with his known streakiness, if he has been playing poorly, does he just become a 4th OF by default? There is something to be said for consistency. Is a guy with a consistent OPS of .690 better/more reliable than a guy like JBJ?
That certainly makes the decision to give up on him much easier. A 1 win CFer isn't worth $6M or $9M. But he's yet to be that guy.** I've been (and still am) a JBJ supporter. He's certainly been all over the map offensively and that makes him hard to value. But I think it's foolish to value him as the guy he's been when on a cold streak (aka as the guy he's been in 2018). Even as he struggled some in 2017, he still amassed 2.2 fWAR by the end of the year. His season batting line ended up .245/.323/.402 with a 90 wRC+. That's a Gold Glove CFer you feel good about paying $9M for. As we know, though, he runs hot or cold. 2017 wRC+ by month: 53, 108, 167, 52, 11, 30 - with the 30 coming in Sept/Oct. So, if the streaky player is more valuable than the steady one, that's negated by the timing in this case. At $6M, I think it's hard to argue against that guy. For $9M, it may be a different story.A good glove CF is worth many millions more than a good glove 1b. Comparing him to Moreland isn't very apt. Bradley's elite skill is a very valuable one. No matter how good of a fielder a 1b could be, he wouldn't have a job at all if he hit like Bradley is this year.
On the other hand:
When Bradley gets super hot, like he has on multiple occasions in his career, he brings his whole season numbers up to respectable levels. He also wins a lot of games for you in a short period, earning much of his WAR in quick bursts.
The long term hope had been that he would figure out how to increase the duration and frequency of his blistering hot streaks... The likelihood of his figuring it out is less and less as he gets older, but he gets more expensive every year.
The Bradley of 2016 was younger, cheaper and (so far) better than our current version.
The decision to give up on him is much easier if he doesn't once again have a Ted Williams quality month at the plate. I personally hope he scuffles along all year and has a 1200 OPS in October
Beni looks fine in CF. That was his position in the minors, he’s got the speed to run down balls and his arm, although not JBJ’s (who else has one like that?), is good. It’s certainly far better than Damon or Ellsbury had. The problem if you bench JBJ is the non-Betts, non-Benintendi OF position. But, JD wants to play outfield, so that accommodates him.I haven't seen any games yet this year where Benintendi is in CF - how does he look out there? Is there any reason to think he wouldn't be an above-average fielder as a full-time player at the position, minus the occasional ridiculous highlight plays that JBJ is known for?