BOS bullpen 2018

Byrdbrain said:

That is interesting, I hadn't seen it the first time you posted it(or I forgot which is certainly possible).
What I see there is a typical knuckleball pitcher who can lose it very quickly, I will be the first to admit that I'm biased against knuckleballers, they are just too variable for my taste. That along with the issues that Wright has when it is raining or too hot just give me very low expectations of him moving forward.
I'd much rather throw Velazquez out there if Pom can't get it together even with the posts showing he may be a bit of a mirage.

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Regarding the bolded, those issues can be better managed when he's pitching out of the pen. If conditions are bad for his grip and hence his effectiveness, Cora doesn't call on him. But if those conditions happen on his day to pitch as a starter, Cora is stuck. I'd really like the Sox to keep Wright in the pen for at least a couple months and see how it's working.

Savin Hillbilly said:

Can you run down for me the AL teams that have three relievers who are clearly better than Barnes?

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I won't.

No problem if you want to look at it that way. I said about Barnes being"okay but not that good/ okay for a 7th inning guy" because I'm looking at playoffs and post season and just look at how they might perform. Barnes continues to struggle with his control. Sure he is getting it done as a 7th inning guy for now - and hopefully can continue to get away with his poor control. But if he is averaging 5.5 walks per 9 innings-- overall going against the best team's in baseball - he's not anyone that I'd call "good/ (ie.looking like he can be good for post season play.) " I'm sure you and many can cite me 1,000 exceptions -- but there's also some truth in regards to a guy averaging 5.5 walks per 9 innings is probably going to crash-and-burn vs the elite teams whether it be the 5th inning 6th or 7th etc. in the playoffs. Agree?

Well this sounds promising

Carson Smith will go for a third opinion on his injured right shoulder.

Smith met with Dr. David Altchek in New York this week, though it's unclear what he was told. It sounds like the 28-year-old setup man is weighing whether to have surgery to repair his labrum or capsule. He was placed on the disabled list May 15 with what was initially diagnosed as a right shoulder subluxation.

Source: Pete Abraham on Twitter
May 22 - 10:46 PM

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Anyone else worrying about Kimbrel?

Last year at the end of May he had 24 IP, 6H and 45K
This year he has 19IP, 10H and 27K, and 4 HR already vs. 1 last year (and 6 for the whole season)

Lose Remerswaal said:

Anyone else worrying about Kimbrel?

Last year at the end of May he had 24 IP, 6H and 45K
This year he has 19IP, 10H and 27K, and 4 HR already vs. 1 last year (and 6 for the whole season)

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Not overly worried. He didn't really have a normal spring training while dealing with his child's health issues, and I imagine he's also part of Cora's plan of reducing pitcher work loads, so I'm not expecting him to be out of the gate as hot as he was last year. His season to date only looks worrisome compared to that otherworldly first couple months he had. He's still one of the best in the league.

rhswanzey said:

Well this sounds promising

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If it is indeed labrum surgery that Carson Smith needs, his season is certainly over and his career is in jeopardy. Still a lot of unknown factors even if confirmed to be labrum injury including type of tear and surgery required, however, at this point it looks like at the very least his season is done.

I definitely think that a lot of the reason we tend to worry about the guys on our favorite team (in this case, the bullpen) is because we see them every day. We see when a guy consistently starts hitters off 2-0 and shakily gets the job done. We see the wildness in and out of the zone that Kimbrel sometimes has. We see this day in and day out with Sox' pitchers. We don't see this with other teams. We don't see the high-wire act that some of them walk. We just look at the dominant numbers and say, wow, that guy is really good.

Looking at b-ref today, here's the stat lines for Kimbrel, Kelly, and Barnes:

Kimbrel: 20.1 ip, 2.21 era, 0.84 whip, 12.4 k/9
Kelly: 21.2 ip, 2.08 era, 0.88 whip, 10.4 k/9
Barnes: 19.2 ip, 2.75 era, 1.12 whip, 12.4 k/9

I mean, that's damned good. I'll compare them to the other top threesomes on other top teams in the AL.

NYY
Chapman: 19.0 ip, 1.42 era, 0.95 whip, 17.1 k/9
Green: 25.0 ip, 2.52 era, 0.96 whip, 12.2 k/9
Robertson: 21.1 ip, 4.22 era, 1.03 whip, 10.5 k/9

Hou
Giles: 15.0 ip, 3.60 era, 0.93 whip, 7.2 k/9
Peacock: 17.2 ip, 1.93 era, 0.86 whip, 12.1 k/9
Devenski: 17.2 ip, 1.53 era, 0.96 whip, 10.7 k/9

Cle
Allen: 19.0 ip, 3.32 era, 1.26 whip, 9.9 k/9
Miller: 12.0 ip, 3.00 era, 1.58 whip, 15.8 k/9
Otero: 16.1 ip, 7.16 era, 1.22 whip, 8.3 k/9

The Sox stack up just fine with these other teams. We just see the warts on our own guys' faces every day, but we don't see it on other teams. We'd all be having a heart attack if Giles was our closer. Or watching Andrew Miller and his 1.58 whip. Or even Robertson with a 4.22 era.

By the way, on the question of worrying about Kimbrel and the HR ball.... I'm convinced that it's almost 100% luck when guys homer off him. His stuff is SO nasty that in order to jack one off him, you have to guess fastball and location and just basically hope you run into one. Occasionally it happens.

I agree that Kimbrel is still elite, or nearly so, but the problem isn't just those home runs, although that may be a symptom, it's innings like last night, where it took 33 pitches to get 3 outs.

BaseballJones said:

I definitely think that a lot of the reason we tend to worry about the guys on our favorite team (in this case, the bullpen) is because we see them every day. We see when a guy consistently starts hitters off 2-0 and shakily gets the job done. We see the wildness in and out of the zone that Kimbrel sometimes has. We see this day in and day out with Sox' pitchers. We don't see this with other teams. We don't see the high-wire act that some of them walk. We just look at the dominant numbers and say, wow, that guy is really good.

Cle
Allen: 19.0 ip, 3.32 era, 1.26 whip, 9.9 k/9
Miller: 12.0 ip, 3.00 era, 1.58 whip, 15.8 k/9
Otero: 16.1 ip, 7.16 era, 1.22 whip, 8.3 k/9

The Sox stack up just fine with these other teams. We just see the warts on our own guys' faces every day, but we don't see it on other teams. We'd all be having a heart attack if Giles was our closer. Or watching Andrew Miller and his 1.58 whip. Or even Robertson with a 4.22 era.

By the way, on the question of worrying about Kimbrel and the HR ball.... I'm convinced that it's almost 100% luck when guys homer off him. His stuff is SO nasty that in order to jack one off him, you have to guess fastball and location and just basically hope you run into one. Occasionally it happens.

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I think Tyler Olson is more likely the Barnes comp from Cleveland's bullpen over 33-year-old Dan Otero.

Olson: 13.1 ip, 6.08 era, 1.20 whip, 12.15 k/9
or
Barnes 2018: 33.8 K%, 15.0 BB%, 0.46 HR/9, 3.01 FIP
Olson 2018: 32.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 1.35 HR/9, 3.04 FIP

Don't mean to nitpick, and agree with your thesis about seeing these guys every day. I doubt every Cleveland fan remains snark-free every time Tyler Olson is carted in from the bullpen.

BaseballJones said:

Kimbrel: 20.1 ip, 2.21 era, 0.84 whip, 12.4 k/9
Kelly: 21.2 ip, 2.08 era, 0.88 whip, 10.4 k/9
Barnes: 19.2 ip, 2.75 era, 1.12 whip, 12.4 k/9

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I think it's definitely time to give JoKe his due. The guy has been all over the place in his time on this team. Even last season, I wasn't ready to count on him in anything other than low-leverage situations because of his peripherals. However, he's been extremely effective after getting baptized in the renewed NYY/BOS rivalry and his mixing of his off-speed pitches has put his k-rate into a range that I think we all expect from a guy that throws so hard. His FIP is also at a sterling 2.05, which suggests he hasn't been the beneficiary of outstanding defense to drive his success.

He has yet to surrender a home run this season, after only giving up 3 last season, and his batted ball data is actually remarkably similar. The pitch mix is really where the story is:

2017 - FB% 64 - SL% 15 - CB% 19 - CH% 2
2018 - FB% 60 - SL% 19 - CB% 12 - CH% 9

And as a result, it looks like hitters are definitely being less aggressive by not being able to tee-off on his fastball. His Z-Swing% (swings at balls in the zone) against has dropped 4% YoY and his O-Contact% (contact on pitches outside the zone) is down to 46% from 66% last year. His percentage of pitches thrown in the zone is more or less identical (44.9% vs 44.2%) with a pretty significant drop in first pitch strike% this season (64% vs 53%). All of this tells me that he's definitely become less predictable and is executing his secondary pitches to keep hitters off-balance. This might be closer to what his baseline could be going forward, instead of blip of luck.


Edit: SSS warning applies, these percentages could be skewed by a single outing at this point in the season.

There's a JoKe thread, but meanwhile Matt Barnes has been just as unhittable. Exactly actually.
Both have a batting average against of .139 which lead the team.

Barnes has had the walk issues, but he's only given up 10 hits in 21.2 innings with 32 strikeouts and the WHIP is now down to 1.02.

He has been downright dominant.

So at this point, it's tops in the AL with Houston and NY. I know everyone wants it to be the no.1 but going out and grabbing someone better than these 3 isn't happening. We don't have the trade chips to acquire that guy.
The best we could reasonably expect is for the Sox to pick up a proven LOOGY and hope that Beeks and/or Thornburg (I keep thinking of that 80's miniseries with Richard Chamberlin "The Thorn Birds") can come up and be better than Hembree.

grimshaw said:

There's a JoKe thread, but meanwhile Matt Barnes has been just as unhittable. Exactly actually.
Both have a batting average against of .139 which lead the team.

Barnes has had the walk issues, but he's only given up 10 hits in 21.2 innings with 32 strikeouts and the WHIP is now down to 1.02.

He has been downright dominant.

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Last 5 appearances: 5ip, 3hits, 0bb/ 8 strikeouts, 17 batters faced. Last 13 appearances, 12.1ip, 7hits, 3er with 4 bb/17k, 48 batters faced. 8.3% bb rate.

Hopefully that trend continues because if he's only walking 8.3%... you said it best. He is downright dominant.

edit: His walk rate last year was a respectable 9.8%, while his k rate was a 29.8% How was he so average last year? I guess he did underperform his FIP and xFIP by quite a bit. Currently his K rate is 34.9% and on the rise while his bb rate is 14.0% and on the decline.

So any news on Carson Smith? He is probably out for the year, right? this is the last i can find about him

yeah, assume out for the year and he's a non-tender candidate now as well.

DeadlySplitter said:

yeah, assume out for the year and he's a non-tender candidate now as well.

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It's starting to look like that was a classic "nobody wins" trade. I had pretty high hopes for Smith, and it was still a good chance to take considering the upside and the mediocrity we gave up for him.

A lot of things had to go right for this team to be excellent. Carson Smith and Hanley Ramirez are the only ones that haven't so far.

Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes have been the top lthree we needed.

Rasputin said:

A lot of things had to go right for this team to be excellent. Carson Smith and Hanley Ramirez are the only ones that haven't so far.

Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes have been the top lthree we needed.

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Nunes still looking injured and not hitting or fielding well. Hanley being DFA'd. Smith most likely out for the year. Thornburg not contributing yet. Devers hitting .230ish. Having 3 catchers on the roster and none of them hitting. Jackie Bradley slumping at the plate. Price and Pomeranz having physical issues. A lot of stuff there that you would have thought would severely hurt the Sox before the year started.

But what has gone right has gone really right. Sale and Porcello have been great. The fill-in starters performed. Betts has been amazing. Martinez has been better than you could have hoped he would be. Bogaerts has put it all together. Moreland has hit better than you could have expected. Holt is all of a sudden not toast. And like you said, the Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes combo has been great. Some of the superlatives will regress, but I expect a few of the negatives will get better, Devers BA in particular. It's impressive that this team could overcome so many things not going right to be this good.

Rasputin said:

A lot of things had to go right for this team to be excellent. Carson Smith and Hanley Ramirez are the only ones that haven't so far.

Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes have been the top lthree we needed.

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Pomeranz has also been terrible.

RIrooter09 said:

Pomeranz has also been terrible.

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He's just earning his way into this thread is all.

Lose Remerswaal said:

I agree that Kimbrel is still elite, or nearly so, but the problem isn't just those home runs, although that may be a symptom, it's innings like last night, where it took 33 pitches to get 3 outs.

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See I don't understand comments like these. Kimbrel hasn't had innings like Wednesday where it takes him 33 pitches to get 3 outs - he's had one inning like that and it was Wednesday (and it was 32 pitches...)

The second most pitches he's thrown in an inning this year was 23 when he came in to a tied game in the tenth, gave up a single and a pair of 2-out walks before closing out the inning with a K (before the Sox won it in 12). The only other inning this year in which he threw as many as 20 pitches was one where he only faced 4 batters (albeit one was an Alex Gordon HR where Kimbrel blew a Sale game save opportunity).

That's a total of 3 games where he threw 20 pitches or more. Last year, in his other worldly first two months of the year, he had 5 such games. Now he has averaged about 0.4 more pitches per appearance than he did last April/May and 1.7 more pitches per inning, but I don't think it's right to say that last Wednesday's game representing anything at all that's been a trend this year.

Ya, the bar has been set absurdly high this year by what he did last year.

The only slight concern I'd have is that his k-rate is the lowest of his career (12.34%) in this hitting environment and his average perceived fastball velocity is down by 1.8 per statcast.

I'm not too worried about him, since some of that may be due to his late spring training but it's something to watch

grimshaw said:

Ya, the bar has been set absurdly high this year by what he did last year.

The only slight concern I'd have is that his k-rate is the lowest of his career (12.34%) in this hitting environment and his average perceived fastball velocity is down by 1.8 per statcast.

I'm not too worried about him, since some of that may be due to his late spring training but it's something to watch

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12.34k per 9, although his K rate is a career low 36.4% right now.

go 8 on 5!

Trotsky said:

The Yankees.... that's probably it.
And that's the damned thing (as you're obviously pointing out) that as okay as Barnes is... he's better than most 3rd options out of any team's bullpen.
Speaking of which..... what's the latest on Thornburg? He seemed to be on track to be rejoining the club and then?

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Red(s)HawksFan said:

He had a poor outing last Monday, so he was shut down until Friday when he had a decent outing (1 hit, 1 K, 1 inning). Not so great on Saturday (2 walks in 3 batters faced). No reports since but it would seem he isn't quite ready as he's struggling with back to backs.

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Seems like Thornburg is with the team, but will be going back to rehab once they reset the clock on Friday:

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/05/tyler_thornburg_rehab_boston_r_3.html

His last 4 appearances with the PawSox, he was meh (19 pitches, 8 strikes), very good (19/15), awful (11/3 on a 2nd night of a back-to-back), and good (12/9 with 2K's).

I'm guessing a return right before the All Star break is a reasonable expectation.

Matt Barnes last 8 games: 9 ip, 5h, 1xbh, 0bb, 12k.
Last 16: 16.1ip, 9h, 3er, 4bb, 21k, 1.65 era. 0.86 WHIP.

He walked 8 in his first 9.1 innings. He's arguably been our best MR since the end of April, though Joe Kelly would have had a claim 4 days ago.

edit: Actually, you could make the argument he's been our best MR all year.

bosox79 said:

Matt Barnes last 8 games: 9 ip, 5h, 1xbh, 0bb, 12k.
Last 16: 16.1ip, 9h, 3er, 4bb, 21k, 1.65 era. 0.86 WHIP.

He walked 8 in his first 9.1 innings. He's arguably been our best MR since the end of April, though Joe Kelly would have had a claim 4 days ago.

edit: Actually, you could make the argument he's been our best MR all year.

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He's actually been roughly as good as Kimbrel even. Kimbrel has the slightly higher k% and better bb%, but Barnes has only given up 1 hr to Kimbrel's 5.

The ERA and fWAR are virtually identical. Kimbrel has almost exclusively been a 9th inning guy too, while Barnes has come in to pressure situations more often.

Carson Smith to go under the knife, for the shoulder subluxation plus some tearing in the labrum. See you... Next year? Never?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/carson-smith-to-undergo-shoulder-surgery.html

Good riddance

lexrageorge said:

Good riddance

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Did your mother not love you enough?

For his shoulder to go just from slamming a glove, it had to be hanging on by a few threads.
It sucks, because this team would be better with Smith, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he follows Joel Hanrahan into oblivion.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

For his shoulder to go just from slamming a glove, it had to be hanging on by a few threads.
It sucks, because this team would be better with Smith, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he follows Joel Hanrahan into oblivion.

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Agreed, or Andrew Bailey. Luckily Workman looks like he is up to the task of replacing him.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

For his shoulder to go just from slamming a glove, it had to be hanging on by a few threads.

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Even when it happened, they said it wasn't caused by the glove thing. He's just got a weak shoulder relatively speaking, and pitching is hard on shoulders.

It sucks, because this team would be better with Smith, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he follows Joel Hanrahan into oblivion.

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Yeah, he might not ever even approach competence again and it kinda sucks.

He was never healthy enough to be an effective part of the bullpen. Hopefully this doesn't repeat with Thornburg.

Rasputin said:

Did your mother not love you enough?

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His throwing Cora under the bus for his own immaturity shouldn't sit well.

lexrageorge said:

His throwing Cora under the bus for his own immaturity shouldn't sit well.

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I cannot roll my eyes hard enough at this.

A guy is really good at something. He gets traded to a place where being really good at that thing sets him up to be an integral part of the one thing everyone in the industry wants desperately. He gets hurt and spends almost two entire years working his way back only to get hurt again, in the part of the body that's the worst to get hurt in. Meanwhile, he's made a relative pittance and his future is uncertain.

And we're unable to cut him a tiny sliver of slack for being a bit of a douche in the moment.

Rasputin said:

I cannot roll my eyes hard enough at this.

A guy is really good at something. He gets traded to a place where being really good at that thing sets him up to be an integral part of the one thing everyone in the industry wants desperately. He gets hurt and spends almost two entire years working his way back only to get hurt again, in the part of the body that's the worst to get hurt in. Meanwhile, he's made a relative pittance and his future is uncertain.

And we're unable to cut him a tiny sliver of slack for being a bit of a douche in the moment.

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Being a human being is for losers.
I expect him to be perfect at all times. Like I am.

Rasputin said:

I cannot roll my eyes hard enough at this.

A guy is really good at something. He gets traded to a place where being really good at that thing sets him up to be an integral part of the one thing everyone in the industry wants desperately. He gets hurt and spends almost two entire years working his way back only to get hurt again, in the part of the body that's the worst to get hurt in. Meanwhile, he's made a relative pittance and his future is uncertain.

And we're unable to cut him a tiny sliver of slack for being a bit of a douche in the moment.

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Fair points.

I can see Dombro trading for a partially subsidized Zach Britton come the end of July. He’d be owed around $4m the rest of this year and is an UFA in 2019. Zach’s a mess tonight but his velocity and movement are still there. Give him another month. No way Baltimore is keeping him or even offering a QO after the season

Just for fun, random selection of veteran relievers acquired by the Red Sox:
Joel Hanrahan: 7.1 IP for Red Sox
Andrew Bailey: 44 IP for Red Sox over 3 years
Carson Smith: 23.2 IP for Red Sox over 3 years
Tyler Thornburg: 0 IP for Red Sox so far
Bobby Jenks: 15.2 IP for Red Sox
Eric Gagne: 18.2 IP for Red Sox
Total: 109.1 IP

Hanrahan, Smith, Thornburg: 31 total IP for Boston

Random guys from a few years ago:
Craig Breslow: 211 IP for Red Sox
Rubby De La Rosa: 113 IP for Red Sox
Scott Atchison: 141.2 IP for Red Sox

The first guy I thought of was Chad Fox who fits right in too.

Fox was a low price flier when he arrived.

Bailey and Thornburg were colossally stupid trades from the get go.

Hanrahan, Smith, Jenks ang Gagne were mostly just bad luck. And Brock Holt came with Hanrahan. He’s almost worth as much as Lowrie has been.

Plympton91 said:

Fox was a low price flier when he arrived

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Ya, just comparing from a resume standpoint. Both were right handed high k-rate set up guys with short track records - though Smith was one of the best relievers in baseball that one yea. Fox was just really solid, but mid steroid era so valuable.

It sucks, but so did Wade Miley.
The funny thing is, the guy the Sox got back for Elias today may be sneaky good.
http://rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/576227/red-sox-acquire-eric-filia-from-mariners

grimshaw said:

Ya, just comparing from a resume standpoint. Both were right handed high k-rate set up guys with short track records - though Smith was one of the best relievers in baseball that one yea. Fox was just really solid, but mid steroid era so valuable.

It sucks, but so did Wade Miley.
The funny thing is, the guy the Sox got back for Elias today may be sneaky good.
http://rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/576227/red-sox-acquire-eric-filia-from-mariners

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Reminds me of Kevin Youkilis and has a similar minor league profile minus the PEDs.

Substance of abuse not PEDs

Plympton91 said:

Bailey and Thornburg were colossally stupid trades from the get go.

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While I didn't care for the Thornburg trade myself, I'd challenge you to qualify your hyperbole here without relying on hindsight.

Plympton91 said:

Fox was a low price flier when he arrived.

Bailey and Thornburg were colossally stupid trades from the get go.

Hanrahan, Smith, Jenks ang Gagne were mostly just bad luck. And Brock Holt came with Hanrahan. He’s almost worth as much as Lowrie has been.

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Bailey and especially Thornburg could also be considered "bad luck" as well. OK, several folks did predict injury issues with Bailey (and I agree trading Reddick was stupid), but I'm not sure anyone could have predicted that Thornburg would suddenly be faced with a career threatening issue. And projecting Shaw is using 20/20 hindsight; quite a few people wondered if he was a poor man's Will Middlebrooks.

The Sox gave up Mark Melancon to get Hanrahan and Holt. It should be noted that after Melancon's disastrous April (which also included a 0.500 BABIP), during which both Valentine and the even more useless McClure threw him under the bus, he appeared in 37 games for the Sox in 2012: 43 IP, 20 RA, 3 HR, 40 K's, 10 BB's, 4.19 ERA. Until last year, he has appeared in 70+ games every season since 2013.

At some point, you'd have to think we'll see Scott up and Buttrey get a chance. Workman's looked decent too. I can't see this team trading for a MR.

The Gray Eagle said:

Just for fun, random selection of veteran relievers acquired by the Red Sox:
Joel Hanrahan: 7.1 IP for Red Sox
Andrew Bailey: 44 IP for Red Sox over 3 years
Carson Smith: 23.2 IP for Red Sox over 3 years
Tyler Thornburg: 0 IP for Red Sox so far
Bobby Jenks: 15.2 IP for Red Sox
Eric Gagne: 18.2 IP for Red Sox
Total: 109.1 IP

Hanrahan, Smith, Thornburg: 31 total IP for Boston

Random guys from a few years ago:
Craig Breslow: 211 IP for Red Sox
Rubby De La Rosa: 113 IP for Red Sox
Scott Atchison: 141.2 IP for Red Sox

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Thank you for reminding me of the Scott Atchison experience. I don't know why but it just seemed to me like he shouldn't be in baseball, but he was a serviceable, solid reliever for a while for the Sox. Always fun to see guys who didn't pitch consistently in the major under after they are 30 manage to hang on for a bit.

Just a check-in:

The bullpen, taken together, has now thrown 226 2/3 IP of 3.02 ERA ball. They have conceded a .644 OPS, struck out 9.9/9 and walked 3.4.