Trey Ball: Finally Some Reason for Optimism?

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,726
Given the Red Sox fairly weak farm system, anything noteworthy qualifies as main board worthy.

After the Bobby Valentine debacle, the Red Sox were afforded a rare chance to pick in the top 10 in the 2013 MLB Draft. It was the franchise's highest pick since the Red Sox took Trot Nixon at the same spot, number 7 overall.

The board was very mixed in the response to the selection of Trey Ball, a 2-way high school player. Many, myself included, were disappointed they didn't take Austin Meadows when their selection came up. In hindsight, it's looking like a relatively weak first round.

Ball has struggled as a starter. Badly. He'd show flashes, but his command was poor, walks piled up. Ball was left unprotected in the Rule V draft. I've wondered in the Red Sox would try him as a position player if he didn't improve. While many players from the draft have been in the majors, Ball is in his second year at AA in his age 24 season.

The team decided to convert him to a reliever, and though it's a small sample size, the results are encouraging. Ball has made 3 appearances. He hasn't surrendered a run and has a 0.60 WHIP. He's struck out 6 in 6.2 IP with only 2 BB. He's thrown over 70% of his pitches for strikes.

Given the draft capital invested in him, it would be great if he could develop into something that could help the team at the Major League level. Something to keep an eye on in Portland
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,854
Let's hope so. Per b-ref he's still *slightly* younger than average in AA. I read a masslive article that speculated he could be up this year if he takes to this role. Not sure I see that, but we shall see.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
copying this from the minor league game day thread.

Wouldn't it be funny if he developed into a Andrew-Miller like reliever. Not without precedent as Miller was the #6 pick in the draft.
The fact that none of the multiple teams that aren't trying to win this year didn't pick him up in the Rule 5 draft makes me question how smart these management guys are. You have the former #7 pick in the draft who has been pitching full-time for all of 5 years plus he's 6'6" plus he's a LH who can throw 92 and he's north $25K to take a spring training look in an environment where teams that will drop 7 figures in a heartbeat on a 16 year old kid from Latin America?
I've said it all along that I think Bell will have a major league career of some sort because there aren't a lot of guys who can throw over 92 from the LH side for strikes. He can at least do that.
I'm glad he's still with the Sox. It's about time they tried him in the bullpen (although having him start all of last year may have been a calculated risk to keep his value down).
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,033
Oregon
Have they changed anything about his delivery or set-up from the stretch after the conversion? Or, have they limited which pitches he's now throwing?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
He changed his arm slot last year and had a lot of Jekyll and Hyde performances after doing so.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,854

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Let's hope so. Per b-ref he's still *slightly* younger than average in AA. I read a masslive article that speculated he could be up this year if he takes to this role. Not sure I see that, but we shall see.
If he is good in the minors it isn't like there is much in his way. It's nice that Walden got a save today but I doubt he has much of a future.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
There are very few reasons to look at this season's Sea Dogs box scores so it's nice to check and see if he pitched, if only for a second.

I can't believe he is only 23.
 

Sox Puppet

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2016
724
Though Ball may never live up to the expectations of his draft slot, it wouldn't be terrible if converting him to relief yields us our version of Matt Bush.

Drafted #1 in the 2004 draft as a shortstop, Bush flamed out repeatedly and went through all sorts of personal problems before finally converting to relief and being brought up by the Rangers in 2016. He's been a pretty reliable bullpen arm since then.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
copying this from the minor league game day thread.


The fact that none of the multiple teams that aren't trying to win this year didn't pick him up in the Rule 5 draft makes me question how smart these management guys are.
Maybe, but what's the point if you think there is no way in hell you would ever keep him on the majors roster all season? I think after this season he could become a minor league free agent -- that's when you start taking a flier on guys.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
Maybe, but what's the point if you think there is no way in hell you would ever keep him on the majors roster all season? I think after this season he could become a minor league free agent -- that's when you start taking a flier on guys.
If he shows something in spring training, why wouldn't a team like Miami or Cinci (etc.) be able to keep him on the roster all season? I mean BAL is trying to compete and they have two Rule 5 guys on their roster.

Teams are trying to tank to get young talent. Trey Ball is the definition of young talent and as a Rule 5 guy it's low risk, high upside. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

But I'm glad everyone missed the boat on him.
 

judyb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
4,444
Wilmington MA
Yeah, apparently because he wasn't yet 19 years old when he was drafted, he isn't eligible until they've had him for 5 years, not just the 4 that makes most players eligible.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
I guess it's possible that's a newer rule that doesn't apply to players drafted and signed as long ago as he was.
Figured it out. Ball was drafted as an 18-year older. He became Rule 5 eligible after his 5th season, or last year. He is not a minor league free agent until after his 7th year (MLB Rule 55). Thus, he is a player who could go through Rule 5 twice, though it is unlikely that he will not be protected this year.

Note that Soxprospects shows that Ball will be a minor league free agent in November 2019 and does not show the Rule 5 list for 2017.

See this for confirmation: https://www.pressherald.com/2017/08/17/on-baseball-trey-ball-shows-another-glimpse-of-his-talent/
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
If he shows something in spring training, why wouldn't a team like Miami or Cinci (etc.) be able to keep him on the roster all season? I mean BAL is trying to compete and they have two Rule 5 guys on their roster.

Teams are trying to tank to get young talent. Trey Ball is the definition of young talent and as a Rule 5 guy it's low risk, high upside. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

But I'm glad everyone missed the boat on him.
Heh, I have to admit, I haven't rooted for a tanking team in a while so the idea of a dead spot on the 40-man and the ML roster didn't occur to me as reasonable. But for Tampa? Yeah, sure. That still begs the question of whether they saw anything in Ball for *him* to be the guy they burn a roster spot on, but going forward that's a maybe. Which means the Sox would have to protect him.
 

judyb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
4,444
Wilmington MA
Figured it out. Ball was drafted as an 18-year older. He became Rule 5 eligible after his 5th season, or last year. He is not a minor league free agent until after his 7th year (MLB Rule 55). Thus, he is a player who could go through Rule 5 twice, though it is unlikely that he will not be protected this year.

Note that Soxprospects shows that Ball will be a minor league free agent in November 2019 and does not show the Rule 5 list for 2017.

See this for confirmation: https://www.pressherald.com/2017/08/17/on-baseball-trey-ball-shows-another-glimpse-of-his-talent/
Looks like I misread it, I thought it was a player who wasn't 19 years old yet when signed became eligible after the 5th rule 5 draft since he'd been signed had already happened.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
I guessed we jinxed him. TB pitched on the 17th and gave up 4 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks in 2 IP. His day went:

GO
BB
BB
FO
2B
HR
GO

GO
Pop Out
Error
FO
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,105
At some point we have to get over Trey Ball. It sucks that it hasn't worked out, but it happens, a lot more than people realize. Even with the 7th pick. Drafting is hard, in baseball more than any other sport. Since the draft started in 1967, only 16 guys out of 53 picked at #7 accumulated at least 5 WAR in their entire major league careers (Benintendi and Archie Bradley will get there and maybe another recent draftee or two, but that's still only about 35% reaching a very low bar).
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
At some point we have to get over Trey Ball. It sucks that it hasn't worked out, but it happens, a lot more than people realize. Even with the 7th pick. Drafting is hard, in baseball more than any other sport. Since the draft started in 1967, only 16 guys out of 53 picked at #7 accumulated at least 5 WAR in their entire major league careers (Benintendi and Archie Bradley will get there and maybe another recent draftee or two, but that's still only about 35% reaching a very low bar).
Interesting quant perspective on this. I bet if you did this for all the top 10 spots in every sport, the results would be much lower than people project.

I would also bet that if you were to rank them, by some equivalent metric like win-shares, it would look something like:
  1. NBA
  2. NFL
  3. NHL
  4. MLB
The only way MLB might rank higher is the longer career expectancies, especially compared to NFL and NHL.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,105
Interesting quant perspective on this. I bet if you did this for all the top 10 spots in every sport, the results would be much lower than people project.

I would also bet that if you were to rank them, by some equivalent metric like win-shares, it would look something like:
  1. NBA
  2. NFL
  3. NHL
  4. MLB
The only way MLB might rank higher is the longer career expectancies, especially compared to NFL and NHL.

I can't speak to the NHL, but I'd be shocked if that wasn't the order for the other three. And really, after the first couple of picks, the hit rates are less than people think in the NBA and NFL too.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I can't speak to the NHL, but I'd be shocked if that wasn't the order for the other three. And really, after the first couple of picks, the hit rates are less than people think in the NBA and NFL too.
My guess is that the slope of hit rates descends most drastically in the NBA; top 3 is probably pretty high but by the time you get to 8-10, it's pretty low.
NFL, I would guess, has a much flatter descent rate.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,948
Thought this deserved a place in the Trey Ball thread since they came out the same draft. Why the RS didn't consider Sean Manaea. Even though Manaea was top Cape Cod prospect. In short, injuries.
Man I’m taking a look at that first round and it has the potential to be a really bad draft for everyone outside Bryant/Judge.

Tim Anderson and Jon Gray might be the only others producing non-zero WAR.

Besides that, you have a bunch of guys who are languishing in the minors (McGuire, Peterson, Stewart) total flameouts (Appell, Crawford), or AAAA/40 man depth pieces with brief tastes of MLB (Shipley, Arroyo, Renfroe, Dozier). Only a few can still be considered prospects (JP Crawford/Austin Meadows).

I remember some of the discussion here surrounding that draft. In the weeks prior, folks were excited by some talk that Boston could get Kohl Stewart (ultimately went #4 to the Twins). He currently has a 7.50 ERA in AA. Others were clamoring for one of the stud high school outfielders (Austin Meadows went #8 to PIT and Clint Frazier #5 to CLE). Neither have shown much in AAA/MLB. Meadows for example, has a career OPS of .701 in over 120 AAA games across parts of three seasons. So he’s closer than Ball I guess, but the bat still ain’t big league.

On the other hand, I remember folks not loving Colin Moran when he was projected to Boston. College bat, good hit tool but little power. He would have been the pick if available, but went #6 to Houston. It took him a while but he’s up with Pittsburgh now and playing well.
 

dbn

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 10, 2007
7,785
La Mancha.
Here's the median WSs for NBA 2000-2016 drafts (yes SSS).



reference: http://www.businessinsider.com/nba-draft-pick-values-2017-6
If someone wants to collect similar statistics for each of the four major sports, it doesn't matter if the data is different; even if it's an apples to oranges to peaches to pears comparison, just fit a power law or something to each distribution *by pick* and ignore the scale factor because comparing the exponent is what is interesting.
 

SydneySox

A dash of cool to add the heat
SoSH Member
Sep 19, 2005
15,605
The Eastern Suburbs
Man I’m taking a look at that first round and it has the potential to be a really bad draft for everyone outside Bryant/Judge.

Tim Anderson and Jon Gray might be the only others producing non-zero WAR.

Besides that, you have a bunch of guys who are languishing in the minors (McGuire, Peterson, Stewart) total flameouts (Appell, Crawford), or AAAA/40 man depth pieces with brief tastes of MLB (Shipley, Arroyo, Renfroe, Dozier). Only a few can still be considered prospects (JP Crawford/Austin Meadows).

I remember some of the discussion here surrounding that draft. In the weeks prior, folks were excited by some talk that Boston could get Kohl Stewart (ultimately went #4 to the Twins). He currently has a 7.50 ERA in AA. Others were clamoring for one of the stud high school outfielders (Austin Meadows went #8 to PIT and Clint Frazier #5 to CLE). Neither have shown much in AAA/MLB. Meadows for example, has a career OPS of .701 in over 120 AAA games across parts of three seasons. So he’s closer than Ball I guess, but the bat still ain’t big league.

On the other hand, I remember folks not loving Colin Moran when he was projected to Boston. College bat, good hit tool but little power. He would have been the pick if available, but went #6 to Houston. It took him a while but he’s up with Pittsburgh now and playing well.
... and Aaron Judge at 32, two picks before Manaea. I know it's not the first round technically but it's pretty close.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
Nice find.
What strikes me as odd is the low scores for 2 and 6. A high score for 5 probably just means one guy who had a huge career there.
With regards to #2, maybe there's something in being caught up with all of the draftthink that goes on since you can't get the top pick. Here's the list since 2000; seems like there's a lot of high-upside, low floor guys who didn't get close to their ceiling:

2017 Lonzo Ball
2016 Brandon Ingram
2015 D’Angelo Russell
2014 Jabari Parker
2013 Victor Oladipo
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2011 Derrick Williams
2010 Evan Turner
2009 Hasheem Thabeet
2008 Michael Beasley
2007 Kevin Durant
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge
2005 Marvin Williams
2004 Emeka Okafor
2003 Darko Milicic
2002 Jay Williams
2001 Tyson Chandler
2000 Stromile Swift

Here's #5, and Wade certainly skews the #s:

2017 De’Aaron Fox
2016 Kris Dunn
2015 Mario Hezonja
2014 Dante Exum
2013 Alex Len
2012 Thomas Robinson
2011 Jonas Valanciunas
2010 Demarcus Cousins
2009 Ricky Rubio
2008 Kevin Love
2007 Jeff Green
2006 Shelden Williams
2005 Raymond Felton
2004 Devin Harris
2003 Dwyane Wade
2002 Nikoloz Tskitishvili
2001 Jason Richardson
2000 Mike Miller

Source: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-5/
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
With regards to #2, maybe there's something in being caught up with all of the draftthink that goes on since you can't get the top pick. Here's the list since 2000; seems like there's a lot of high-upside, low floor guys who didn't get close to their ceiling:

2017 Lonzo Bvili
2001 Jason Richardson
2000 Mike Miller

Source: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-5/
The NBA draft has evolved pretty dramatically over the years. Some of the seasons on this list include the days of taking high schoolers, a complete crapshoot, until the rule was instituted in 2005 (I believe) setting the minimum age of 19. Since then the league has probably gotten smarter about evaluating both the 19-year-old one-and-done guys, or smarter than they were able to be about high schoolers, and also I'd think most teams have a better operation overseas. The NBA probably deserves to be ranked highest among the major US sports for draft predictability going forward, but it wasn't that long ago that you could have made a case for the NFL at #1.
 

lurker42

New Member
Jul 15, 2005
173
With regards to #2, maybe there's something in being caught up with all of the draftthink that goes on since you can't get the top pick. Here's the list since 2000; seems like there's a lot of high-upside, low floor guys who didn't get close to their ceiling:

...

Here's #5, and Wade certainly skews the #s:

...

Source: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-5/
Nice find.
What strikes me as odd is the low scores for 2 and 6. A high score for 5 probably just means one guy who had a huge career there.
The number reported is the median value, not mean, so a single outlier will barely have any effect on the result at all.
 

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,726
upload_2018-6-4_12-20-57.jpeg

He's been a disaster. Optimism revoked. 8.20 ERA, only one appearance where he HASN'T allowed a run since April 20.

That Austin Meadows kid is raking in Pittsburgh. Cherington should have listened to me.
 

EdRalphRomero

wooderson
SoSH Member
Oct 3, 2007
4,472
deep in the hole
From Sox Prospects write-up on him "Two-way player in high school in Indiana and was also a first-round talent in the outfield." It really doesn't seem there is much to lose. Of course, if he did catch on, he'd present a Rule 5 problem. But bring on that problem.
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,870
ct
Small sample size issue I think. Let's see Trey have success for more than 8 innings before we annoint him for the Hall of Fame. What has his velocity been like? Teams would likely not be fooled by 8 solid innings pitched if we included him in a trade. He would have to be a very minor piece in a trade and would not move the needle much.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,085
Small sample size issue I think. Let's see Trey have success for more than 8 innings before we annoint him for the Hall of Fame. What has his velocity been like? Teams would likely not be fooled by 8 solid innings pitched if we included him in a trade. He would have to be a very minor piece in a trade and would not move the needle much.
Good lord, he posted his last 4 outings and said "something good, I guess"
 
Last edited:

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Small sample size issue I think. Let's see Trey have success for more than 8 innings before we annoint him for the Hall of Fame. What has his velocity been like? Teams would likely not be fooled by 8 solid innings pitched if we included him in a trade. He would have to be a very minor piece in a trade and would not move the needle much.
He's been crap all year and I doubt anyone puts much stock into 8 innings. It could potentially be the start of something though, or he could just go right back to sucking. Ball is new to the MR role so there's a slim chance he's adjusted to the role. He's not even in the Redsox Top 60 prospects. Not sure what the HOF comment is for, I didn't suggest anything.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
I was noticing that Ball has been better recently too. The reason for some renewed curiosity until the next meltdown is the K/9 Has spiked and the walks have disappeared.

I think the focus in the above posts on ultimate ML WAR from these draft picks is too narrow of a focus. The other value you hope to get from a top pick is trade value. Austin Meadows has trade value for a couple years. Appel was part of the Hamels trade. Ball has never had any value whatsoever. He’s been like the new car driven off the lot and then totaled the following week.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Trey Ball took BP yesterday.
As this tweet very diplomatically states Trey has had "limited success" pitching.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
How did the Sox miss so badly on this kid? Who scouted him and sold him on the Sox (Cherington pick, correct?)?
I realize that it's sort of a crap shoot, but this was just a crappy shot. I definitely do not have the time to go and look through top draft picks... but I imagine that even the ones that do flame out (likely the majority) have at least some success through some stages of the minor leagues. This guy hit the ground crapping and never stopped.
 

ponch73

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2006
870
Stumptown via Chelmsford
How did the Sox miss so badly on this kid? Who scouted him and sold him on the Sox (Cherington pick, correct?)?
I realize that it's sort of a crap shoot, but this was just a crappy shot. I definitely do not have the time to go and look through top draft picks... but I imagine that even the ones that do flame out (likely the majority) have at least some success through some stages of the minor leagues. This guy hit the ground crapping and never stopped.
It was a huge miss by the area scout, Sawdaye and Cherington. Especially since it was the 7th pick. Sox could have had Austin Meadows instead.

EDIT: My bad. 7th pick, not 6th.
 
Last edited: