Round One Discussion - Toronto

McDrew

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If you accept the premise that everyone is potentially a murderous psychopath, and everyone is in danger of someone else snapping and killing them for no reason during unrelated sporting events, then yes, that seems like a rational argument.
 

JimD

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For the benefit of us casual fans - what are some of the regular poster's takeaways from these first two games? How confident are you that the B's can replicate what worked in games 1 and 2 during these next two games up north?
 

NYCSox

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It's going to be tough because a hockey team down 2-0 on home ice is essentially a cornered animal. So expect the Bruins to be under siege early and often. If they can survive that and get a lead, it's very plausible that a young team will be mentally broken and they can salt it away.

Edit: And it wouldn't hurt if Rask played like MAF did last night in LA.
 

FL4WL3SS

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For the benefit of us casual fans - what are some of the regular poster's takeaways from these first two games? How confident are you that the B's can replicate what worked in games 1 and 2 during these next two games up north?
The thing is, the Bruins were just as good on the road this year as at home. I expect closer games, but at this point wouldn't be surprised to win in 4 or 5. Toronto has no answer for either of the top two lines and while they will have the advantage of playing the matchup game at home, there will always be one or two lines that are exposed. The Bruins are just too deep for Toronto.
 

Saints Rest

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This might be worth a whole thread -- though I'm not sure what forum -- but I feel like home ice/field/court advantage may be the most extreme in hockey. As with football, there is the adrenaline push that can be channeled positively in terms of crowd noise (big hits, etc). As with baseball, there is a fundamental rule difference that benefits the home team (last change in hockey vs last ups in baseball). Many years ago, hockey rinks could be different sizes (as in baseball) but I feel like that is no longer the case.

In the case of this series, it seems that, as FL4WL3SS mentions, the last change advantage doesn't help Toronto all that much as they don't have the depth to match up everywhere (nor do I think they have anyone who can shut down the B's 1st line the way it is playing right now). So it will be really important for the Bruins to avoid penalties and get out to an early lead to take away the noise/adrenaline factor.
 

cshea

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I think the depth is about equal at forward with the Leafs at full strength, but they are missing Kadri and Komarov. Either way, the Bruins don’t really hard match their lines any more. It used to be that Bergeron was glued to the opponents top line, but they stopped doing that early last season. They have pronounced ozone/dzone start splits among the 4 centers/lines. Here are the even strength OZone starts for the Bruins top 4 centers this season:

Bergeron: 61%
Krejci: 67%
Riley Nash: 47%
Kuraly: 36%

Here’s the splits for just road games:

Bergeron: 64%
Krejci: 70%
Riley Nash: 48%
Kuraly: 25%

The Bruins more or less don’t hard match and just get Krejci and Bergy out there for offensive zone starts, while Nash and Kuraly handle the defensive assignments. They also don’t err on the side of caution on the road and get Bergy out there for Dzone draws, though that is in their back pocket should they need it in a key situation.

Babcock will probably try to keep the Matthews line away from Bergy, but I don’t expect the Bruins to go change much of anything from a deployment perspective. They are comfortable giving the 3rd and 4th line tough minutes.
 

The Napkin

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I've long felt that in some ways having last change at home can be a disadvantage if you get so caught up in "oh my God, must change now!" and you never really get into a flow and the away team winds up dictating everything. It of course helps to have 4 capable lines but I used to get really frustrated when the other team's first line would be out and the Bruins would win a draw and just dump it so they could get the Bergeron line/top D-pair out there. All you do is give them possession at that point.

I could, of course, be wrong about all of this.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Anecdotally, the Matthews line looked pretty dangerous in the rare times the B's got caught with McQuaid out on the ice in games 1 & 2.

If Grzelcyk's out, I'd be looking for Chara/McAvoy to get a lot of d-zone double shifts to prevent the possibility of McQuaid getting caught out there (particularly in period 2). It'd be a worthwhile gambit as well IMO, given two off days coming up.

Credit to Cassidy for finding a useful role for McQuaid on the PK - but they need to limit him at even strength as much as possible.
 

reggiecleveland

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This might be worth a whole thread -- though I'm not sure what forum -- but I feel like home ice/field/court advantage may be the most extreme in hockey. As with football, there is the adrenaline push that can be channeled positively in terms of crowd noise (big hits, etc). As with baseball, there is a fundamental rule difference that benefits the home team (last change in hockey vs last ups in baseball). Many years ago, hockey rinks could be different sizes (as in baseball) but I feel like that is no longer the case.

In the case of this series, it seems that, as FL4WL3SS mentions, the last change advantage doesn't help Toronto all that much as they don't have the depth to match up everywhere (nor do I think they have anyone who can shut down the B's 1st line the way it is playing right now). So it will be really important for the Bruins to avoid penalties and get out to an early lead to take away the noise/adrenaline factor.
Discussion of regular season here:
https://www.sbnation.com/2011/1/19/1940438/home-field-advantage-sports-stats-data




but
http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-conference-championship-games-home-field-advantage-records-panthers-bronocos-mlb-nba-nhl/1xio6320kqfb51q28da09zdlyl

However, some research has shown that during the postseason, playing in front of the home fans may be a bigger disadvantage. Research published in the mid-1980s found that for World Series games played between 1924-1982 the home team won 60 percent of the first two games, yet only 40 percent of the last two games. During a similar time period, NBA teams won 70 percent of the first four games, but during the fifth and six games the percentage dropped to 46 percent.

Most surprisingly, in deciding seventh games, the winning percentage for the home team was only 38 percent. Yet, more recent research found NBA home teams win almost all Game 7s. Therefore, at least in the NBA, "championship choking" has become less prevalent.
 

Maximus

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Be disciplined and don't let their PP beat us and contain the quick strike weapons on their forward lines. Keep taking advantage of their shaky D and Win. Welcome back Riley, good to have you back.
 

mwonow

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I didn't think that the score reflected the actual discrepancy in play - the teams seemed closer on the ice than on the scoreboard. So yeah, Toronto will be jumping, and they aren't that far off being more competitive...but there's still a gap between 'in the game' and 'having the most goals at the end.'

Not expecting more blowouts on the road, but hoping for two more Ws!
 

joe dokes

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I didn't think that the score reflected the actual discrepancy in play - the teams seemed closer on the ice than on the scoreboard. So yeah, Toronto will be jumping, and they aren't that far off being more competitive...but there's still a gap between 'in the game' and 'having the most goals at the end.'

Not expecting more blowouts on the road, but hoping for two more Ws!

I agree with this. I think the scoreboard gap in Game 2 seemed almost entirely related to Toronto's inability to keep Bergeron's line in check.
 

InstantKarmma

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Toronto will - or at the very least should - come out of the gate hot. That's not a lock, though. Maybe it's tougher to play a more physical game on the road, I don't know. But the Bruins seemed to want the puck more.

Edit - to make this a little less hot-takey...

Between periods, Jeremy Roenick and Anson Carter were going on about (and I agreed with them) that Toronto was "backing off" from getting hit. They show replays of a few instances where a Toronto player pulled up short on the puck when a Bruin was coming to avoid a hit.

In contrast, Cassidy made a point of telling his team that "you hit and you get hit - that's playoff hockey" and the Bruins played a heavier game.
 
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Jordu

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In answer to JimD’s question — and I think I already said it in a game thread — the Bruins did a good job neutralizing Toronto’s speed in the first two games by being aggressive in the neutral zone. If a team as fast as Toronto starts getting clean zone entries, things can get out of hand in a hurry.
 

Maximus

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In answer to JimD’s question — and I think I already said it in a game thread — the Bruins did a good job neutralizing Toronto’s speed in the first two games by being aggressive in the neutral zone. If a team as fast as Toronto starts getting clean zone entries, things can get out of hand in a hurry.
Great point and this should be another point of emphasis by Cassidy.
 

RedOctober3829

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There was some talk in the game thread last night about Rick Nash and him looking slow. Here is Nash commenting on that very thing.

Rick Nash on coming back from a concussion: "I feel good on the ice...I feel strong, I feel powerful, I just feel like I’m missing that little step of speed that’s kind of coming each game."

 

RSN Diaspora

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I checked out of the game thread after the game ended, so this might have been at least partially addressed, but can we talk about Kevan Miller's sucktastic play last night? I don't remember him being this bad in the first two games (and he scored in game two), but the Bruins' dominance of the Leafs in those games might have been overwhelming enough to cover up Miller's failings. He kept getting beat, turned the puck over several times, and was minus-three for the night.
 

RetractableRoof

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I checked out of the game thread after the game ended, so this might have been at least partially addressed, but can we talk about Kevan Miller's sucktastic play last night? I don't remember him being this bad in the first two games (and he scored in game two), but the Bruins' dominance of the Leafs in those games might have been overwhelming enough to cover up Miller's failings. He kept getting beat, turned the puck over several times, and was minus-three for the night.
I've also been thinking about this. He didn't seem to help Rask much on the late 2 on 1 score, never really taking either of the attackers. Perhaps it is more matchup driven? He did play well in games 1 & 2. Is it possible that Toronto was able to manipulate (via last change and the long bench) the matchups better? I did notice a higher number of times that when Toronto had the puck in the offensive zone they were swapping out the points more frequently than I had previously seen in an effort to have fresh bodies pressing the defense (maybe I just missed it previously?). I also think Miller was more tentative taking the body - maybe he was seeing more speed on the ice against him.

I think with Gryz out the Bs defense was vulnerable - Holden didn't acquit himself well IMO, and the pairing of Holden and McQuaid was getting pressured more than I expected. I think Cassidy did some mixing and matching, but given Toronto's speed, I don't know how else he could have adjusted. I wonder with the defense not looking their best if it will also limit Cassidy's ability to use Donato who hasn't shown an ability yet to handle all of his defensive responsibilities.

I'm looking forward to the responses from others here...
 

joe dokes

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I've also been thinking about this. He didn't seem to help Rask much on the late 2 on 1 score, never really taking either of the attackers. Perhaps it is more matchup driven? He did play well in games 1 & 2. Is it possible that Toronto was able to manipulate (via last change and the long bench) the matchups better? I did notice a higher number of times that when Toronto had the puck in the offensive zone they were swapping out the points more frequently than I had previously seen in an effort to have fresh bodies pressing the defense (maybe I just missed it previously?). I also think Miller was more tentative taking the body - maybe he was seeing more speed on the ice against him.

I think with Gryz out the Bs defense was vulnerable - Holden didn't acquit himself well IMO, and the pairing of Holden and McQuaid was getting pressured more than I expected. I think Cassidy did some mixing and matching, but given Toronto's speed, I don't know how else he could have adjusted. I wonder with the defense not looking their best if it will also limit Cassidy's ability to use Donato who hasn't shown an ability yet to handle all of his defensive responsibilities.

I'm looking forward to the responses from others here...
Might as well get it in one place.....

I put this in the tail end of the game thread not long ago:

There's a lot of talk of getting pinned in the d-zone. Could that be related to Grzelcyk's absence? I think Cassidy tried to split up Miller and Krug so that one would be with the less mobile McQ or Holden, but then he went back to it, as neither McQ nor Holden looked especially good with Krug. Having Krug, McAvoy and Grz gives them one potential one-man rush on every pair.
And Logan'sDad followed with:
I absolutely think Grz being out had a bigger effect than is being talked about. Holden is serviceable, but having both him and McQuaid in the lineup against a team as fast as Toronto is really bad. Miller and Krug are a really good second pair, McQuaid and Holden are a really bad third pair. But splitting Miller and Krug up makes two not awesome pairs below Chara and McAvoy.
It's a tough situation to have to deal with right now, and I think Toronto is the worst possible team in the playoffs to lose Grz against. Hopefully he is back Thursday but he looked very not good at the end of game 2.
 

durandal1707

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I think Rick Nash also looked a little out-of-sync with his linemates at times. I recall a couple times when Krejci or DeBrusk would play the puck behind the Toronto goal and Rick was nowhere in the picture, leading to easy possession for the Leafs. I'm hoping this is a result of a lack of practice together more than anything, and with the extra time off before Game 4 helps remedy that.
 

MiracleOfO2704

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He didn't seem to help Rask much on the late 2 on 1 score, never really taking either of the attackers.
Without the benefit of seeing another good replay since, that was the most egregious thing about the goal, and I wonder how the communication between he and Rask was leading up to it. I’ll take another look at it later and see if I find something new with a fresh set of eyes.
 

joe dokes

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Without the benefit of seeing another good replay since, that was the most egregious thing about the goal, and I wonder how the communication between he and Rask was leading up to it. I’ll take another look at it later and see if I find something new with a fresh set of eyes.
I'm no expert, but I thought he sealed off the pass quite well, and made the shooter shoot.
(we may not be talking about the same goal....)
 
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cshea

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The last goal, Miller played the pass (and took it away) and let Rask handle the shooter which is Hockey 101. Unfortunately, Rask got beat.

The 2-1 goal was poor awareness between Krug and Miller. Marner beat Miller and received the long stretch pass and was in alone, Marleau beat Krug to the far post for the finish.

The 3-2 goal was a 5 way Bruin clusterfuck. Miller was a half second late to Matthews, but he had just blocked a shot in the low slot and seemed to be in some discomfort. Plus the Bruins had opportunities to clear the zone and couldn’t.

Edit: I didn’t really have any problem with Miller. B’s main defensive issue is cleaning up the stretch pass breakdowns.
 

kenneycb

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Yeah that 2-on-1 goal was more on Rask if anything. Miller had to play the pass but also make sure Marleau didn't have enough space to cut to the middle to essentially create a mini-break. Tuukka lost his positioning and basically gave up half the net so it was an easy goal for Marleau.
 

The Napkin

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(fwiw my tongue was planted firmly in cheek. I didn't even see the first 50 so I can't really offer an educated opinion)

(I know, never stopped me before)
 

RetractableRoof

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To be clear - I'm not slamming Miller. I was in line at the crow counter when Miller was playing well throughout the season. I'm also not an expert, so my comment upthread said "seemed" - and I'll defer to those that know what choice he should have made on the late 2 on 1 - failure/success aside. I'm glad you guys responded, because you see things in the games that I don't always - even if it's something that should have happened and didn't.
 

Maximus

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The last goal, Miller played the pass (and took it away) and let Rask handle the shooter which is Hockey 101. Unfortunately, Rask got beat.

The 2-1 goal was poor awareness between Krug and Miller. Marner beat Miller and received the long stretch pass and was in alone, Marleau beat Krug to the far post for the finish.

The 3-2 goal was a 5 way Bruin clusterfuck. Miller was a half second late to Matthews, but he had just blocked a shot in the low slot and seemed to be in some discomfort. Plus the Bruins had opportunities to clear the zone and couldn’t.

Edit: I didn’t really have any problem with Miller. B’s main defensive issue is cleaning up the stretch pass breakdowns.
I feel the same way about Miller. I was his biggest detractor last year but he's been great this year and in the 1st two playoffs games. The 2 biggest areas to clean up heading into game 4 is eliminating the stretch pass breakdowns and doing a better job getting the puck out of our defensive zone (seemed like a lot of those possessions were so long they felt like PP's). And continue to focus on controlling the neutral zone with the Leafs team speed.
 

mwonow

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I thought Miller played poorly - that sequence where he danced around deep in the O zone that ended up with the puck in the Bs net was pretty galling. Honestly, though, it seemed like Toronto was able to keep the Bs bottled up in the D zone, and it looked like that was more on the forwards than the D. Hopefully, Cassidy will have a plan for making the Leafs pay for pinching.
 

TFP

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I had been resisting The Athletic, but your recommendation finally pushed me over the edge to subscribe. It better be good!
 

TFP

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Yeah - anyone who has questions about playing defense on a 2 on 1 there should read that. That was excellent.
 

Jordu

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I ponied up for The Athletic a couple of weeks ago and I am delighted by how good it’s hockey and baseball coverage is.
 

kenneycb

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What was the thought on the Marchand goal? I thought he played it decent but was too much in the middle and left just that little gap for a great player like Pasta to make that pass. I had the same reaction as another one of my buddies who knows hockey (e.g., yelling at Pasta to shoot) but curious to hear the jist of what Bourne said.