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joe dokes

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Totally, and let’s not forget that Pomeranz was the 10th best pitcher in the AL by fWAR last year (and a better ERA than every Yankee starter except Severino).

Plus, we’ve heard a lot about the end of the Yankees pen, but I think people are sleeping on the back of the Red Sox pen. The 7th/8th/9th crew of Kimbrel, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, and Joe Kelly could be among the best in the league.

Obviously adding JDM’s bat would be good for the team, but I think a lot of the sports radio crowd is losing sight of how fundamentally good this team already is.
Thats where I am. I dont think that getting Stanton and re-signing CC gets the NYY past 160 wins.
JDM is obviosuly better that either the 9 or 10 toed version of Moreland, but a healthy and platooned Moreland, and non lingering health issues for Betts and Bogaerts should go a long way to boosting the offense. Maybe not to league leading, but a long way better than 2017. I m not losing sleep over the Chronicles of JD.
 

chawson

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I guess I'd think that after trading four Top 20 prospects plus tiptoeing under the luxury tax last year that the team would go all in while they have Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Sale. If not, then holy shit what a weird set of decisions.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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I think he's prepared to go into the season with what he has except for the one loose end of Martinez. If he gets him, great, he's upgraded the DH spot with the best available option. If he doesn't, then he rolls on as is because nothing left on the market represents a significant enough upgrade of the roster to be worth the cost.
The one catch with rolling with what they've got is there is nobody to platoon with Hanley to keep his option from vesting. I feel fairly certain that they don't want his option to vest. If they sign JDM, he plays DH and Hanley platoons at first with Two-bags, maybe gets some at-bats at DH if JDM plays a little left field. If they don't sign JDM, then Hanley is the full-time DH with nobody else to grab some of those at-bats. (Brentz is also a RHH, as is Sam Travis. Maybe, if he's hitting well, they could justify Swihart taking some of those ABs).

Which is why I think a Plan B of LHH Logan Morrison or Lucas Duda on a cheap one-year deal isn't out of the question - it provides insurance against Hanley's option vesting. Would you rather pay one of those guys $8M this year to take 200 ABs away from Hanley, or be on the hook to Hanley for $22M next year? I'd take the former.
 

Captaincoop

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Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.

He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.

There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
 

chawson

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Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.

He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.

There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
Hanley has played through injury the majority of his time here. Why would he suddenly ask to sit now that there's direct financial incentive for him to play?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.

He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.

There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
I agree with all of this. Hanley is the full time DH for this team on Opening Day if they don't sign Martinez. He'll get every opportunity to prove he's healthy.

If he is and he hits like it's 2016 again (or better), you don't worry about his option vesting. If they must trade him to save money for 2019, he'll be a lot more tradeable, even subsidized, if he's coming off a good and healthy year.

If he's not healthy or hits like it's 2015, he will be sat down frequently or cut altogether and won't trigger his option.

Either way, it seems to me that Dombrowski and company have a lot more faith in Hanley than some fans and posters here.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.

He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.

There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
Hanley has given the Red Sox 0.8, 3.2, and -0.1 oWAR* in his three years in Boston. A total of 3.9 oWAR for $66M. His slash lines were:
2015 .249/.291/.426/.717 in 430 PAs
2016 .286/.361/.505/.866 in 620 PAs
2017 .242/.320/.429/.750 in 553 PAs
Splits vs RHP
2015 BB% 4.2, K% 14.7, .257/.296/.424/.720, .167 ISO, .263 BABIP, .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+
2016 BB% 9.4, K% 19.7, .268/.344/.453/.796, .185 ISO, .300 BABIP, .342 wOBA and 111 wRC+
2017 BB% 7.9, K% 20.5, .259/.328/.441/.769, .182 ISO, .295 BABIP, .329 wOBA and 101wRC+

Over the same time...

Morrison
2015 .225/.302/.383/.685 in 511 PAs for 0.7 oWAR
2016 .238/.319/.414/.733 in 398 PAs for 0.9 oWAR
2017 .246/.353/.516/.868 in 601 PAs for 3.6 oWAR
Total 5.2 oWAR.
Splits vs RHP
2015 BB% 10.4, K% 14.3, .241/.323/.444/.767, .203 ISO, .237 BABIP, .329 wOBA and 112 wRC+
2016 BB% 8.9, K% 22.0, .234/.312/.419/.731, .186 ISO, .264 BABIP, .316 wOBA and 99 wRC+
2017 BB% 13.6, K% 25.2 .251/.356/.548/.905, .298 ISO, .267 BABIP, .374 wOBA and 137 wRC+

Duda
2015 .244/.352/.486/.838 in 135 PAs for 2.6 oWAR
2016 .229/.302/.412/.714 in 172 PAs for 0.1 oWAR (missed most of the season with a stress fracture in his lower back)
2017 .217/.322/.496/.818 in 491 PAs for two teams for 1.2 oWAR.
Total 3.9 oWAR.
Splits vs RHP
2015 BB% 14.0, K% 22.7, .230/.358/.466/.823, .236 ISO, .255 BABIP, .354 wOBA, 129 wRC+
2016 BB% 9.3, K% 20.0, .252/.329/.447/.776, .195 ISO, .275 BABIP, .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+
2017 BB% 13.7, K% 25.3, .227/.342/.525/.867, .298 ISO, .238 BABIP, .360 wOBA and 126 wRC+

*All WAR is from Baseball Reference. I'm referencing oWAR since I'm looking at these guys as DHs, so I don't want to muddy the waters with their defense (which is pretty similarly negative value for all three).

To address your points, Captaincoop:

1. "Mediocre platoon partner..."
While I agree that overall Duda and Morrison are mediocre (just about equally mediocre as Hanley), I disagree that they would make mediocre platoon partners for Hanley. Each is coming off a season with a much better batting line against righthanded pitching than Hanley; and each has two seasons out of the last three with better production against RHP than Hanley's best season in that time. Both have a strong probability to have better seasons vs RHP than Hanley.

2. "Hanley seems likely to be a problem..."
Hanley IS A PROBLEM. Yes, he can be good when healthy. But he's had one good season out of three. He's sucked $66M while producing less than 4 oWAR (he's been paid $16.5M/oWAR). If Hanley wants to be a problem because he's being platooned with someone who hits righties better than he does, the Sox can cut him and replace his production against LHP with Brentz or Travis or a trade target, while Duda or Morrison outpace his production against RHP.

3. "He can still hit when he's healthy ... take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option."
I agree that he can hit when healthy. He was healthy in 2016 and he hit. He might be healthy in 2018 and hit. Great. But the Sox cannot let him trigger the option. Because the chances of him being healthy and hitting again next year are miniscule. Let him hit in a platoon, let him do damage against lefties and select righties that he has a history of hitting well, let him ride a hot streak... But do not let him get to 497 plate appearances.

4. "There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury..."
But why take that chance when you've got 22 million reasons not to? And you can get better production against RHP from a Duda or Morrison?
 
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Plympton91

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I guess I'd think that after trading four Top 20 prospects plus tiptoeing under the luxury tax last year that the team would go all in while they have Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Sale. If not, then holy shit what a weird set of decisions.
This is where I am as well. If they don’t get JDM, then they’re really risking having all those trades backfire. It does not make a whole lot of sense to mortgage the farm and then leave the best producing field fallow. The early 2010s Tigers were great and all, but ...
 

dynomite

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This is where I am as well. If they don’t get JDM, then they’re really risking having all those trades backfire. It does not make a whole lot of sense to mortgage the farm and then leave the best producing field fallow. The early 2010s Tigers were great and all, but ...
This is an aside, but I remember being stunned when the 2013 Red Sox came back to beat those 2013 Tigers, and every year that passes those Tigers seem even more impressive to me.

Verlander/Scherzer as the 1 and 2 was wild, plus prime Fister, Anibal, and young Porcello. Miggy Cabrera repeating as MVP and nearly repeating the Triple Crown. That team’s Pythag had them winning 99 games — they were STACKED.
 

Clears Cleaver

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This is an aside, but I remember being stunned when the 2013 Red Sox came back to beat those 2013 Tigers, and every year that passes those Tigers seem even more impressive to me.

Verlander/Scherzer as the 1 and 2 was wild, plus prime Fister, Anibal, and young Porcello. Miggy Cabrera repeating as MVP and nearly repeating the Triple Crown. That team’s Pythag had them winning 99 games — they were STACKED.
Except their bullpen sucked. And defense was eh. And Leland’s pitching choices backfired repeatedly.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Plus, we’ve heard a lot about the end of the Yankees pen, but I think people are sleeping on the back of the Red Sox pen. The 7th/8th/9th crew of Kimbrel, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, and Joe Kelly could be among the best in the league.
Thonburg - thoracic outlet syndrome ended up helping put Daniel Bard out of the league. this is a complete question mark
Smith - looked OK out of TJ late last year, but again much uncertainty
Kelly - I've been burned too much to ever trust Joe
 

The Mort Report

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Thonburg - thoracic outlet syndrome ended up helping put Daniel Bard out of the league. this is a complete question mark
Smith - looked OK out of TJ late last year, but again much uncertainty
Kelly - I've been burned too much to ever trust Joe
I'm expecting big numbers from Smith. Yes the turn around time on TJ surgery is much faster but that doesn't mean they are ready to pitch at a high level that quickly. He's going to have a full offseason and I'm expecting Smith of 2016
 

MtPleasant Paul

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You mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.

Hey, is it correct if the Red Sox release Hanley during the 2018 season that his option automatically vests for 2019?
 

The Mort Report

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You mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.

Hey, is it correct if the Red Sox release Hanley during the 2018 season that his option automatically vests for 2019?
wow has it been that long? I need to stop drinking so much... point still stands though
 

NDame616

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You mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.

Hey, is it correct if the Red Sox release Hanley during the 2018 season that his option automatically vests for 2019?
That is not correct. If we cut him we only have to pay this year's salary
 

Average Reds

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You mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.
Apologies for going off topic, but grouping Smith and Thornburg like this is ridiculous.

Given what we know about TJ surgery and what we saw from Smith last year, there is no reason to assume he won’t return to form in 2018.

Given what we know about thoracic outlet syndrome, there is no reason to expect any production from Thornburg until he proves otherwise.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I've felt all along that JD's preference is to stay with AZ (was comfortable and well-liked there, played well, gets to play the OF), so he will sign there if the offer is competitive. I think it's roughly 50/50 on which place he signs at this point.

There are different rumors about what our current offer is, ranging from a low of 100 up to 125 for 5. If the Sox are on the low end of that still, I could see an offer like 5/115, a team (non-vesting) option for year 6 with a $5m buyout, and maybe even offer a opt-out after year 3 if that's what it takes to get him, which would result in one of the following:
3/69 (if he opts out)
5/120 (if team option not exercised)
6/138 (if team option exercised)

If he goes to AZ, or elsewhere, I doubt DD goes after another FA, unless someone essentially falls in his lap at a bargain rate. I think it's likely he waits and see what he's got with the current roster, and if necessary looks for a bat in the trade market (or looks at any FAs if they are still sitting at home - which I don't expect, but who knows at this point?).
 

chawson

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I've felt all along that JD's preference is to stay with AZ (was comfortable and well-liked there, played well, gets to play the OF), so he will sign there if the offer is competitive. I think it's roughly 50/50 on which place he signs at this point.
This feels more likely by the day. The narrative has been that JDM is waiting for the Sox to up their offer closer to his original ask of $210M. But he could just be waiting for Arizona to get their offer up to a number comparable enough to the Sox’s offer that it doesn’t rupture the market.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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This JDM pursuit reminds me of the ending of The Bourne Ultimatum, where JB is on the roof and asks the assassin "Do you even know why you're supposed to kill me?"

For me its come to that. The purpose is buried beneath the process. That and I've had 3+ months to learn about JDM's defense. I have a feeling my emotions aren't going to be moved much regardless of what happens.
 

dynomite

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Thonburg - thoracic outlet syndrome ended up helping put Daniel Bard out of the league. this is a complete question mark
Smith - looked OK out of TJ late last year, but again much uncertainty
Kelly - I've been burned too much to ever trust Joe
Smith - Some uncertainty, but I wouldn’t say “much” — as you say he looked good and had a normal offseason.

Kelly - Well you just saw him complete a hugely successful season in he bullpen. There are some warning signs (he needs to walk fewer guys and strike out more guys) but he’s about as reliable as 7th inning guys get.

Thornburg - This is the biggest question mark. You’re right that there’s bad history with this surgery (although don’t forget that Bard fell apart in the 2012 season, two years before he had thoracic outlet surgery), and, well, uncertain history (Matt Harvey, Mike Foltynewicz). We can’t expect too much from Thornburg early in the season, but I wouldn’t give up on him.
 

Manramsclan

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Groundhog day:

According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html

I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
 

pinkunicornsox

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DD might not be so pessimistic about what the team is currently planning on rolling out with. Further if I recall correctly the acquisition price for Martinez, Bruce and Duda last trade deadline was not that high. DD probably figures that if worst comes to worst he can pull of a trade for a DH that won't destroy the farm system, so until another team actually gets involved in the bidding there is no sense in upping the offer.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Groundhog day:

According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html

I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
It's not about "winning" the negotiation, though. Given how close they will be to the secondary luxury tax cap (and more severe penalties) if they sign him, the difference of a couple million bucks per year could actually cost them a lot more than that. They've got to leave themselves some wiggle room to add to the roster mid-season and a couple million dollars could be huge for that.

Not getting Martinez does not "jeopardize the window" one bit, assuming that there really is a "window" at all. There are alternatives, including standing pat with the roster as is. A roster that was good enough to win the division last year despite down seasons from most of the lineup.
 

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Groundhog day:

According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html

I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
Doesn't it depend on what Boras is doing on the other side? If the Sox offered 5/$100 and Boras countered with 7/$200, then what's the point of increasing a couple million per year? That really is the definition of bidding against themselves.
 

RedOctober3829

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The Arizona Diamondbacks remain engaged in negotiations with J.D. Martinez, and retain a decent chance to keep the free-agent slugging star in spite of a public perception that the Boston Red Sox are the clear favorite.

Martinez’s agent Scott Boras recently had a third in-person meeting with D-backs owner Ken Kendrick, as the sides try to find common ground (Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and MLB Network reported on the third meeting), and one D-backs person expressed a bit more optimism than before regarding their chances to keep the slugger who posted an otherworldly .741 slugging percentage with Arizona last year.

Sources suggest that the D-backs have broached “creative” ways to keep Martinez. The D-backs don’t have the same revenues or budget as the Red Sox, and have concerns about keeping their franchise first baseman Paul Goldschmidt long-term. Arizona does have some other advantages over Boston, however, including the ability to have Martinez play his preferred outfield position (his role in Boston would be DH primarily) and familiarity. Martinez is said to have loved his time in Arizona — and why not, he slugged like almost no one in baseball.

https://www.fanragsports.com/diamondbacks/heyman-d-backs-looking-at-creative-ways-to-keep-jd-martinez/
 

chawson

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It's not about "winning" the negotiation, though. Given how close they will be to the secondary luxury tax cap (and more severe penalties) if they sign him, the difference of a couple million bucks per year could actually cost them a lot more than that. They've got to leave themselves some wiggle room to add to the roster mid-season and a couple million dollars could be huge for that.

Not getting Martinez does not "jeopardize the window" one bit, assuming that there really is a "window" at all. There are alternatives, including standing pat with the roster as is. A roster that was good enough to win the division last year despite down seasons from most of the lineup.
If those millions are that important to getting under the 2018 secondary tax, then why not explore trading someone on a high-AAV short-deal for a player of the same value stretched over multiple years?

There are probably more salient examples of this, but for example, Hanley for Prado would shave $8.5M off this year's payroll and are owed roughly the same money overall (Prado has 2/$28.5M left on his contract).

Could backfire on our 2019 payroll, but if we sign JDM, a move like trading Hanley, Holt, and Leon for Prado (if he's healthy) would reduce this year's AAV while being roughly the same money overall.
 
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MikeM

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Groundhog day:

According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html

I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
5/$100m on the table at this point is basically stating that we were never really serious about "winning" this negotiation with Boras in the first place. Which all things considered ultimately adds up and makes more overall sense imo then some notion that DD really wanted JDM and then went on to play the hand here that he did. Big assist to the media for basically writing in most of the 'they did try" narrative for us though.

While I never ideally wanted JDM, I'm strongly guessing Arizona now swoops in and grabs him on a fairly decent "deal' for them. Since I still can't see Boras actually following through with the sit out threat.
 

Captaincoop

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Has it been covered somewhere in this thread what the statistical case is for why we shouldn't be concerned about Martinez' home/road splits? How much of his production was generated by playing at two plus-home run parks?

He's obviously a good hitter regardless, but does this explain some of the hesitation to go all-in with a huge offer for him? Boras wants to get him paid like Stanton, but Stanton put up massive power numbers everywhere. Is Martinez likely to do that?
 

Gash Prex

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its amazing to me that 100 million dollars could ever be considered evidence of collision.
 

moondog80

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I'll say this; if the Diamondbacks are offering the absolute most the can reasonably offer, and the Red Sox have the capacity to go much higher but simply want to go one dollar more than everyone else (or if JDM at least believes this is the case), I can see where he might place some extra weight on the D-Backs offer. People like to feel wanted.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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5/$100m on the table at this point is basically stating that we were never really serious about "winning" this negotiation with Boras in the first place. Which all things considered ultimately adds up and makes more overall sense imo then some notion that DD really wanted JDM and then went on to play the hand here that he did. Big assist to the media for basically writing in most of the 'they did try" narrative for us though.

While I never ideally wanted JDM, I'm strongly guessing Arizona now swoops in and grabs him on a fairly decent "deal' for them. Since I still can't see Boras actually following through with the sit out threat.
If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).

I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.
 

moondog80

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If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).

I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.

I'd guess he's genuinely interested and he'd go to $125 (at least) if he had to, but he's trying to take advantage of the soft market.
 

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If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).

I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.
Yes, to all of this. They have the highest bid on the table. That's neither low ball nor non-serious.

Would also love to hear examples of non-serious "we tried" bids from Dombrowski's past.
 

MikeM

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May 27, 2010
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If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).

I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.
For the record I don't think DD would be in the driver's seat of any "we tried" narrative. Passenger going along with the ride maybe. But again, the media has basically spent the winter doing just fine writing in that narrative for us.

Like I've been pointing out all winter the little details going in to this don't add up for me as well. Overpaying and committing that roster spot to Moreland as early as we did. The presented notion that we would turn around and release Hanley on the eve of ST, or not leaving yourself more time/opportunity to shop Bradley if that was the the after-play. The fact DD of all GMs would make an offer on a guy he really wanted and then sit on it all winter while negotiating with Boras (who would most certainly lay his client an the sacrificial table himself before ever advising them to put that type of absolute smear on his resume), and never say...at least get more aggressive on the per/year side long before now. Even if it meant shorting the offered years to end up at the same total money, since we were going to end up over the cap the next 2 years regardless with him and the flexibility going towards a 2nd tier LT would still be there. You can picture yourself liking JDM at $20/per over 5, but see him as a deal breaker at $25m/per over 4?

The same question applies here in reverse. What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who plays a hand like this?
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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5/$100m on the table at this point is basically stating that we were never really serious about "winning" this negotiation with Boras in the first place. Which all things considered ultimately adds up and makes more overall sense imo then some notion that DD really wanted JDM and then went on to play the hand here that he did. Big assist to the media for basically writing in most of the 'they did try" narrative for us though.

While I never ideally wanted JDM, I'm strongly guessing Arizona now swoops in and grabs him on a fairly decent "deal' for them. Since I still can't see Boras actually following through with the sit out threat.
How is this DD not "being serious"? He has the highest offer on the table. Boras is pissed because he looks like an asshole, "JD, we're going to get $300M EASY." and so he's spinning everything to make it look like the Red Sox and the D'Backs are the ones that are crazy. Some reporters *cough*Nick Cafardo*cough* eat up everything that Boras gives them and regurgitate it.

But what is DD supposed to do? Bid against himself, drive the price up to $300M and then we're stuck with JD Martinez when guys like Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello and JBJ are free agents and due for big contracts in the next few years.

I'm normally on the players' side (i.e. I want to see them get the most money that they can) but at the same time, I want my team to financially sane. If signing JDM to a big contract means that Scott Boras can sleep better at night and we lose even one of those players because of the contract, it's not worth it.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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Feb 6, 2018
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Dombrowski’s aggressive signing of David Price shows he is not a “well, we made an offer” kind of guy. He’s very aggressive when he wants to acquire a player. It’s a buyers market right now, and DD has being smart and patient. Boras is trying to create more interest for his client in an attempt to drive up his value, but there’s simply not enough buyers to get what he’s looking for. Will JDM swallow his pride and take a lesser offer from Arizona? I highly doubt that.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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For the record I don't think DD would be in the driver's seat of any "we tried" narrative. Passenger going along with the ride maybe. But again, the media has basically spent the winter doing just fine writing in that narrative for us.

Like I've been pointing out all winter the little details going in to this don't add up for me as well. Overpaying and committing that roster spot to Moreland as early as we did. The presented notion that we would turn around and release Hanley on the eve of ST, or not leaving yourself more time/opportunity to shop Bradley if that was the the after-play. The fact DD of all GMs would make an offer on a guy he really wanted and then sit on it all winter while negotiating with Boras (who would most certainly lay his client an the sacrificial table himself before ever advising them to put that type of absolute smear on his resume), and never say...at least get more aggressive on the per/year side long before now. Even if it meant shorting the offered years to end up at the same total money, since we were going to end up over the cap the next 2 years regardless with him and the flexibility going towards a 2nd tier LT would still be there. You can picture yourself liking JDM at $20/per over 5, but see him as a deal breaker at $25m/per over 4?

The same question applies here in reverse. What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who plays a hand like this?
Considering that all reports have been that Boras/Martinez began the winter looking to break the bank with a long term deal (similar to Boras/Hosmer turning their nose up at reported 6 and 7 year offers), I have to think that until very very recently, the notion of shorting the offer to raise the AAV was a non-starter on both sides. And the only thing that's changed is that there are now reports from Boras mouthpieces like Heyman that other teams are getting "creative" with the suggestion being that "creative" = shorter terms, bigger AAV.

As for Dombrowski's history, he strikes me as a guy who tends to read markets extremely well. He's no nonsense and doesn't try to get cute, but he doesn't get rolled either. We have no reason to think that Dombrowski wouldn't be very aggressive in pursuing Martinez, including significantly increasing his offer from the rumored 5/100, if there was a real need to be. Let's not confuse his usual aggressiveness with impatience. He was aggressive with Price two years ago because he had to be. There were other teams in active pursuit (remember that Price believed bidding was over and he was going to St. Louis until Dombrowski came over the top with his last offer). All evidence we have shows that is very much not the case with Martinez.

Dombrowski, evidently correctly, assessed Martinez's market value as way below what Boras was asking and banked on Boras scaring off some potential suitors. He's sitting on an offer that hasn't been matched because he's not in a position where he has to do anything else. He doesn't have to sweet talk Boras or overpay (either be adding years or adding AAV) to get the deal done because he doesn't desperately need to sign Martinez. He's in a position where he wants Martinez at the right price but is perfectly comfortable going into 2018 without him.
 

tims4wins

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Considering that all reports have been that Boras/Martinez began the winter looking to break the bank with a long term deal (similar to Boras/Hosmer turning their nose up at reported 6 and 7 year offers), I have to think that until very very recently, the notion of shorting the offer to raise the AAV was a non-starter on both sides. And the only thing that's changed is that there are now reports from Boras mouthpieces like Heyman that other teams are getting "creative" with the suggestion being that "creative" = shorter terms, bigger AAV.

As for Dombrowski's history, he strikes me as a guy who tends to read markets extremely well. He's no nonsense and doesn't try to get cute, but he doesn't get rolled either. We have no reason to think that Dombrowski wouldn't be very aggressive in pursuing Martinez, including significantly increasing his offer from the rumored 5/100, if there was a real need to be. Let's not confuse his usual aggressiveness with impatience. He was aggressive with Price two years ago because he had to be. There were other teams in active pursuit (remember that Price believed bidding was over and he was going to St. Louis until Dombrowski came over the top with his last offer). All evidence we have shows that is very much not the case with Martinez.

Dombrowski, evidently correctly, assessed Martinez's market value as way below what Boras was asking and banked on Boras scaring off some potential suitors. He's sitting on an offer that hasn't been matched because he's not in a position where he has to do anything else. He doesn't have to sweet talk Boras or overpay (either be adding years or adding AAV) to get the deal done because he doesn't desperately need to sign Martinez. He's in a position where he wants Martinez at the right price but is perfectly comfortable going into 2018 without him.
And for all of these reasons, I have gained respect for and confidence in DD as the Red Sox GM. He has played this perfectly, whether or not JDM signs with the Sox.
 

chawson

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Like I've been pointing out all winter the little details going in to this don't add up for me as well. Overpaying and committing that roster spot to Moreland as early as we did.
You truly have pointed this out now close to twenty times. I asked your ideal alternative last week, and you said LoMo, Duda, Adam Lind or Mike Moustakas.

Moustakas isn’t going to sign to play first, and neither are we going to move Devers down the defensive spectrum at age 21. He won’t be cheap, and if he signs a one-year pillow deal, our park is probably the last one he’d choose to do it in.

LoMo reverted to career norms in July of last year. He’s one of baseball’s most problematic personalities, and the most recent reports had him turning down a 2/$20M deal.

Adam Lind is a part-time player entering his age-35 season and would need to be platooned.

Duda is somewhat interesting, but he’s a bad defensive player who hit .175 with a .285 OBP for the Rays last year.

Many folks have posted data about Moreland’s defensive value, which seems vital in a year we need a power-hitting third baseman to stick, and his numbers outside of his toe injury were quite good. Furthermore, 2/$13M is not an “overpay” by any standard.

Abreu seemed to have cost JBJ (too much), and Hosmer is a disaster several times worse than the one we’re in with JDM. There’s also evidence to suggest Hanley is not really an option.

Moreland is no one’s favorite player, but he makes sense. You’re ignoring a ton of holistic information about the valuation of baseball players as well as the market in order for you to maintain your position, and you will not let any of us forget your position. There’s no clear alternative, and we needed a first baseman.

You dislike the signing, and I don’t expect to convince you otherwise. Would it be possible for you to stop dragging it back up in every other post you make about anything else?
 
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In my lifetime

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Dombrowski, evidently correctly, assessed Martinez's market value as way below what Boras was asking and banked on Boras scaring off some potential suitors. He's sitting on an offer that hasn't been matched because he's not in a position where he has to do anything else. He doesn't have to sweet talk Boras or overpay (either be adding years or adding AAV) to get the deal done because he doesn't desperately need to sign Martinez. He's in a position where he wants Martinez at the right price but is perfectly comfortable going into 2018 without him.
And although some here don't like the signing, I think that is exactly why DD signed Moreland. Without Moreland or another ~league average first baseman, the RS would be much more desperate to sign JDM, since they would be left with only HRam/Swihart/Travis to fill DH/1B. In effect Moreland (and yes it could have been another similar 1B) probably saves them his complete salary in minimizing the pressure to sign JDM no matter what the price.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Duda is somewhat interesting, but he’s a bad defensive player who hit .175 with a .285 OBP for the Rays last year.
The numbers say otherwise. He's a league-average defensive 1B. I think his offensive dip last year is concerning, but if he can bounce back from that, he's a better player than Moreland. (Not that that's really relevant to anything at this point.)
 
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