That failed 3rd down haunts me to this day. How many times out of 10 do they convert that? 7? 8?
2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)
- Thread starter Red Averages
- Start date
I get it, having grown up in New England, but amazing how that forecast high temp has been walked down over the past few days - it was 55, then 48, now 43.
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Yes, you are correct.
It was a costly game. Brown also get hurt, and it was in that fateful series. And the injury caused Brown to miss most of the 2007 season. But it may not have been an ACL.
Richard Seymour got hurt, and also started the following season on PUP. There were a couple of other injuries that game as well.
Just trying to put your mind at ease about Brady. Granted, I realize I probably didn't.
I do appreciate it. It's the playoffs and I worry about every opponent always!
Find the post where I said it would be an easy victory. We can "argue" but don't put words in my mouth.
You said Brady's history in the AFCCG worries you. I asked what specifically about the AFCCG causes Brady to worry you? The fact that he had 4 bad games 6-10 years ago against different teams in them? It's not like the rules are different in and AFCCG. It's random noise.
It's like someone posting that Chris Sale is 1-4 on Wednesdays, but 16-1 the other 6 days so we should avoid pitching him on Wednesdays.
You're conflating unrelated data. The Patriots need to play well because if not, Jax can beat them. They don't need to play well because the Ravens picked him off twice in the AFCCG 8 years ago.
I don't think it gets any better for mid-January. Approximate game time temperatures via the GFS model. 
Brady, career, cold weather (21 - 40 F): 95.7 rating
Brady, career, indoors: 107.3 rating
I realize not all their SBs have been played indoors, nor have all the AFCCGs been played in sub-40 degree weather. But, in aggregate, the playing conditions have been much better for the former than the latter. I'd say his 'bad performance' in AFCCGs (relative to SB) is 2 parts weather, 2 parts noise, 1 part Ravens defense.
But but but... Sale was 4-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 4 starts last year on Wednesdays. He had an average GS over 75 for God sakes! What you're saying here makes no sense at all.
1-4 on Wednesdays... as if!
You're probably right. I wonder how much this played into 4th and 2 three years later. Probably a lot.
That's true. The flip side is that most of his AFCCGs are at home, where he should have an advantage.
I do think there's something to the opponents he's played. San Diego was like that. Baltimore, of course, gave him problems, even in the 2007 regular season he was just 18-38, 257, 2 td, 1 int, 76.3 rating. And Denver at Denver is one of his most difficult places to play.
The flip side is that if we're going to dismiss his bad AFCCG performances because many of those were against teams that historically give him fits, we have to be logically consistent and point out that his best successes were against teams he typically destroys - Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. So just as "oh he always has a hard time with Baltimore" can be a reason to dismiss his struggles against them, equally so "oh he always kills the Steelers" can be a reason to dismiss his success against Pit.
At the end of the day, his numbers are what they are, and the fact is, they're not very good in the AFCCG. His biggest struggles come against teams that can get after the QB with just the front four, and who play excellent coverage behind it, and who run the ball well. Baltimore was like that. The Giants (obviously not in the AFCCG) were like that. Denver was like that. The Chargers in those days were like that (Merriman and Tomlinson). And as it turns out...Jacksonville is exactly like that.
I'm not saying this necessarily means Brady is going to have a bad day or that the Patriots are necessarily going to lose. No. But I am surprised people are not understanding why I have concerns about this game.
The point people are trying to make is that any concerns about the game should be due to the merits of the opponent, and of the Pats, and have nothing to do with the fact that it is the AFCCG.
I read somewhere (sorry can’t remember where), that for most players, the pressure is more intense for the conference championship games than for the Super Bowl. Maybe there’s something of that in Brady’s numbers.
It’s pretty simple. If they don’t turn it over, Jacksonville can’t keep up. 27-13 ish type game that won’t feel that close by that third quarter.
He has also absolutely carved up very similar teams. Seattle in 14 May be the best example of a team that got after the QB, played amazing coverage, and could run the ball.
I HATE this running “narrative” that “all” you have to do to beat Brady is sack him a bunch while rushing 4 and covering anyone on the back end and then you just have to sit on the ball and force a couple turnovers. Uhhhhhh ya think?! There’s not a QB in NFL history who wins w these circumstances.
I think the Jax D is getting a touch overrated. They are avg to poor vs the run. They don’t cover RBs well out of the backfield. They kind of “run what they run”, a recipe for disaster against Josh and Brady. They are a talented unit, but young and prone to mistakes. I mean they just gave up 42 to Pitt. SF scored 44 (yes I am aware some of that was ST and D). Tennessee scores 37 (albeit earlier in the season).
Nobody is saying "all you have to do is". But that IS the best way to beat him. And while, yes, he has had success against those teams at times, they tend to be the kinds of teams that give him the most difficulty.
The Pats do have the tools to counter the Jags' defense. I'm on record as stating that I think the formula on Sunday is a lot of Lewis and Burkhead behind Mason, and then isolating Lewis and White (and Burkhead) on their LBs for a lot of flares, wheel routes, and underneath stuff. I think Jacksonville will have a hard time with that.
Brady is more than capable of having a huge game on Sunday, and I expect the Pats to win, even if he doesn't. But again...I don't understand why people don't see why there's some concern to be had here. Brady quite often in the playoffs puts up a poor performance. That's unfortunate to say, but it's true. He's more than capable of having a 23-40, 220 yd, 1 td, 2 int day on Sunday.
But then again, I've admitted to being something of a worrywart come playoff time.
Sorry if this isn’t the right place, but does anyone here have experience streaming games on CBS while in the Boston market? My son and I are going on a group day trip from Maine to the Garden for Celts-Magic, and will be on the bus on our way back during most of the Pats game. I was considering getting a free 1-week trial of the CBS service so we can watch while on the road, but I’m worried that it’ll be blacked out in-market. Maybe a dumb question, but I’ve never been in this situation. Thanks in advance for any insights.
I do think the improved RB diversity (not just more guys, but two-way threats so defense doesn't know the action just by who is on the field) and the presence of a healthy Gronk are big factors against a great pass rush. Historically, teams have done 4 man rush and flooded the short zone against Pats. This year's team is kind of specifically built to combat that, with better deep threats than they have had since 2007 (with demonstrated willingness to throw deep) and better short-field options. Those things don't make them immune to a great pass rush, but they know the 'blueprint' teams are working from and they've specifically designed some ways to counter.
Could Jax get a ton of pressure, Cooks/Hogan/Dorsett miss all the long balls, and the RBs fail to break tackles short? Sure. But they are better situated to compete against even a strong 4 man/flood the short zone scheme than they have ever been, too
Could Jax get a ton of pressure, Cooks/Hogan/Dorsett miss all the long balls, and the RBs fail to break tackles short? Sure. But they are better situated to compete against even a strong 4 man/flood the short zone scheme than they have ever been, too
So in fourteen seasons with Brady as the Pats' starter (including 2001 but excluding 2008) the Pats season ended with a:
Superbowl win five times
Superbowl loss twice
AFCCG loss four times
Divisional loss twice
Wild card loss once
Missed playoffs once
So the AFCCG accounts for four of nine total playoff losses. Three of four were on the road, though. The Pats were four and a half point dogs at Denver the first time, three and a half point dogs in Indy, three point favorites over the Broncos in 2015 and eight point favorites over Baltimore. Only once have the Patriots been bigger favorites by the money line, in 2007 against Philip Rivers and his torn ACL.
In short: The 2012 Baltimore loss was a complete outlier in terms of Pats AFCCGs. The other three losses were on the road to teams (definitionally, given on the road) with the same or better regular season record. In each case Vegas had the two teams much closer than the line for this game, and in two of them had the Pats giving points. Plus the predictive value of Brady's rating isn't that great: the first four of the eleven appearances are over a decade old now, and occurred in completely different scoring environments. In the 2006 edition, his rating was below 80, and they scored 34 points; 2014 he had a rating of 94 and they put up 16. It's entirely possible that Brady has a subpar game and the Pats still win by a touchdown.
Let's not overthink this (he says, after writing the above): The Pats' record in championship games is good, but worse than their record overall, because they play good teams. The Jags could win, because they're a pretty good team; but by Vegas lines, a road win this week would tie the 2010 Jets game for the biggest playoff upset of the Patriots under B&B.
Superbowl win five times
Superbowl loss twice
AFCCG loss four times
Divisional loss twice
Wild card loss once
Missed playoffs once
So the AFCCG accounts for four of nine total playoff losses. Three of four were on the road, though. The Pats were four and a half point dogs at Denver the first time, three and a half point dogs in Indy, three point favorites over the Broncos in 2015 and eight point favorites over Baltimore. Only once have the Patriots been bigger favorites by the money line, in 2007 against Philip Rivers and his torn ACL.
In short: The 2012 Baltimore loss was a complete outlier in terms of Pats AFCCGs. The other three losses were on the road to teams (definitionally, given on the road) with the same or better regular season record. In each case Vegas had the two teams much closer than the line for this game, and in two of them had the Pats giving points. Plus the predictive value of Brady's rating isn't that great: the first four of the eleven appearances are over a decade old now, and occurred in completely different scoring environments. In the 2006 edition, his rating was below 80, and they scored 34 points; 2014 he had a rating of 94 and they put up 16. It's entirely possible that Brady has a subpar game and the Pats still win by a touchdown.
Let's not overthink this (he says, after writing the above): The Pats' record in championship games is good, but worse than their record overall, because they play good teams. The Jags could win, because they're a pretty good team; but by Vegas lines, a road win this week would tie the 2010 Jets game for the biggest playoff upset of the Patriots under B&B.
All NFL playoff games are being streamed for free on the Yahoo Mobile app
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/oaths-tim-armstrong-yahoo-sports-to-stream-nfl-playoffs-this-weekend.html
Fair enough, but isn't it less "all you have to do" than a narrative of saying, your only hope....
To the extent that there is a narrative it is that teams have to rush four and only four because otherwise they will get torched by Brady by, if they are lucky, the third quarter. If they bring in extra pressure, Brady kills the mismatch. If they can't get pressure with four, Brady eventually checks-down to the open guy and actually hits him.
Along the same lines, teams can't drop into zones because he will find soft places in the coverage too quickly.
So yeah, there maybe is a narrative, but I think it is more a story of saying that your options for beating the Pats on that side of the ball are pretty limited. And to my eyes, it is sort of true. The Pats have carved up countless pretty good Defenses over the years, but when they lose it almost always feels like it is a small group of 1 on 1 line battles that trip up the offense.
By my count, Brady has played 9 playoff games with a healthy Gronk (I’m excluding SB46). In those 9 games, he has thrown for 2,771 yards, 24 TDs, and 10 INTs with an average rating of 94.2. In those 9 games, he only had 2 duds - 2011 AFCCG against Balt and 2015 AFCCG against Denver, 1 average game (2010 Jets), and 6 very good games with a QB rating of 99 or greater. Jacksonville has a good defense but I wouldn’t put them up with the Ravens or Broncos. I also think that Brady has far more weapons this year than he had in those games.
I expect Jacksonville to create pressure and probably force a turnover or two but I would be disappointed if this game turns into one of those high teens/low 20s defeats. I think they can be exploited if the Pats stay disciplined.
I expect Jacksonville to create pressure and probably force a turnover or two but I would be disappointed if this game turns into one of those high teens/low 20s defeats. I think they can be exploited if the Pats stay disciplined.
If that's the case the team that's played the past 6 of them and a QB who's played in 11 would have a distinct advantage.
I do think there was a period of time where Brady put extra pressure on himself in playoff games and played a little tight. Specifically the 2010-2013 timeframe. He really wanted another title. I think 2014 was a huge breakthrough and he has generally played great since. The one awful performance was the 2015 AFCCG in Denver but there were so many key pieces to that - Edelman was banged up, that D was generationally good, they almost never play well in Denver, etc. That was opponent based.
Saw a cool stat yesterday - Brady has a higher percentage of making the AFCCG than Bortles does of completing passes. It has been more likely that Brady will make the AFCCG in any given year than Bortles will complete a throw.
Brady has a higher percentage of making the AFCCG (12/16, 75%) than every QB ever has of completing a pass, including Brady. The record high is Drew Brees this year with 72%.
I think Jacksonville’s “Sacksonville” rep is a bit of a mirage, just like Vic Beasley’s rep last year (and for the same reason). 28 of their 55 sacks came against Indy and Houston, teams 1 and 2 in terms of getting their QB hit. And even if you took out those 14 sacks against each, those teams would still rank in or near the top 10 for sacks allowed, so they clearly sucked at QB protection, results against JAX aside. Throw in another 5 sacks against a nearly as terrible Jets team, and it looks to me like they’re living off a few huge games, and aside from those they’re generally a 1 or 2 sack a game defense.
There has been almost no discussion about the Pats' defense, which has looked pretty sneaky strong the last month.
I think we all agree that the Jag defense is at least a good test for Brady in the offense.
But what about the other side of the ball? The Jag (or JAG) offense has a good chance of getting completely shut down to the point that 14-17 points from Brady and the O wins this game.
There is more than one way to skin these cats.
I think we all agree that the Jag defense is at least a good test for Brady in the offense.
But what about the other side of the ball? The Jag (or JAG) offense has a good chance of getting completely shut down to the point that 14-17 points from Brady and the O wins this game.
There is more than one way to skin these cats.
Pats are #1 in scoring defense since Week 5 I believe with an average of 14 ppg. They've been great the last few weeks in terms of getting pressure on the QB and in the 2 games since Harrison was signed they've set the edge much better against the run. Ricky Jean-Francois has also stepped up his game as of late making that D-line more formidable.
It's hard to see Jacksonville scoring that many points unless their defense comes up huge with a few turnovers that either result directly in touchdowns (pick-sixes, etc) or give the Jags very short field position. I think a reasonable prediction for this game is something like 24-17 Pats, with Jacksonville having one good normal touchdown drive, scoring a TD off a short field thanks to a turnover, having another good drive (maybe aided by a long PI penalty) that results in a FG, and then not much else. I can see the Pats struggling through stretches of this game, but in the end having enough offensively to win by a touchdown.
I can see it being 24-17 late with Jacksonville needing to drive the field to tie the game with a TD, and Harmon sealing it with a pick in the last minute.
I can see it being 24-17 late with Jacksonville needing to drive the field to tie the game with a TD, and Harmon sealing it with a pick in the last minute.
Via Michael Hurley... They are stretching a wee bit for the bulletin board material... lol
Now a week later, the well of smack talk has dried up, as the Patriots are too experienced and too wise to be so foolish as to flap their gums and insult this week’s opponent.
But that’s not stopping the Jaguars from trying to generate a slight or two by really reading between the lines — and I do mean really reading between the lines — on this quote from Tom Brady: “This is the biggest challenge we’ve faced all year.”
Seems pretty straightforward, no? Well, maybe to the untrained eye it looks like Brady was complimenting the Jaguars. But to Jacksonville linebacker Telvin Smith? Ohhhhhh, buddy. This was a Grade A insult.
Telvin Smith
@TelvinSmith_22
Bruh this the oldest trick...pump us up in the media but in the buildin I kno what’s really bein said.Respect
https://twitter.com/espnnfl/status/953346833996238851 …
2:11 PM - Jan 16, 2018
In the first game against Houston Tom Savage got sacked 6 times in the 1st half with Watson getting sacked 4 times in the 2nd half
What about Brady on a bye week vs Brady on regular rest, since we’re comparing Super Bowls to AFCCGs?
Another way to look at it....
Brady's 11 AFCCGs...
Versus first-time opponents
- 2001 vs Pit: 12-18, 115 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 84.3 rating, W
- 2004 vs Pit: 14-21, 207 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 130.5 rating, W
- 2011 vs Bal: 22-36, 239 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 57.5 rating, W
TOT: 48-75 (64.0%), 561 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 84.3 rating, 3-0 record
Versus 2nd-time opponents
- 2003 vs Ind: 22-37, 237 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 76.1 rating, W
- 2006 vs Ind: 21-34, 232 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 79.5 rating, L
- 2007 vs SD: 22-33, 209 yds, 2 td, 3 int, 66.4 rating, W
- 2012 vs Bal: 29-54, 320 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 62.3 rating, L
- 2013 vs Den: 24-38, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 93.9 rating, L
- 2014 vs Ind: 23-35, 226 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.4 rating, W
- 2015 vs Den: 27-56, 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating, L
- 2016 vs Pit: 32-42, 384 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 127.5 rating, W
TOT: 200-329 (60.8%), 2195 yds, 13 td, 10 int, 81.0 rating, 4-4 record
Another way to look at it....
Versus teams Brady typically eats up
- 2001 vs Pit: 12-18, 115 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 84.3 rating, W
- 2004 vs Pit: 14-21, 207 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 130.5 rating, W
- 2003 vs Ind: 22-37, 237 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 76.1 rating, W
- 2006 vs Ind: 21-34, 232 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 79.5 rating, L
- 2014 vs Ind: 23-35, 226 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.4 rating, W
- 2016 vs Pit: 32-42, 384 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 127.5 rating, W
TOT: 124-187 (66.3%), 1401 yds, 10 td, 3 int, 99.7 rating, 5-1 record
Versus teams Brady typically struggles against
- 2007 vs SD: 22-33, 209 yds, 2 td, 3 int, 66.4 rating, W
- 2011 vs Bal: 22-36, 239 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 57.5 rating, W
- 2012 vs Bal: 29-54, 320 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 62.3 rating, L
- 2013 vs Den: 24-38, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 93.9 rating, L
- 2015 vs Den: 27-56, 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating, L
TOT: 124-217 (57.1%), 1355 yds, 5 td, 9 int, 66.1 rating, 2-3 record
The good news in all this is that Jacksonville is a team they're playing for the first time this season, AND traditionally Brady handles them well (I know it's not really material here but still): 71.4% completion, 11 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating in 5 career games vs. Jacksonville. Not even counting the playoffs, where twice he absolutely carved them up (2005, 2007).
Brady's 11 AFCCGs...
Versus first-time opponents
- 2001 vs Pit: 12-18, 115 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 84.3 rating, W
- 2004 vs Pit: 14-21, 207 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 130.5 rating, W
- 2011 vs Bal: 22-36, 239 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 57.5 rating, W
TOT: 48-75 (64.0%), 561 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 84.3 rating, 3-0 record
Versus 2nd-time opponents
- 2003 vs Ind: 22-37, 237 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 76.1 rating, W
- 2006 vs Ind: 21-34, 232 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 79.5 rating, L
- 2007 vs SD: 22-33, 209 yds, 2 td, 3 int, 66.4 rating, W
- 2012 vs Bal: 29-54, 320 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 62.3 rating, L
- 2013 vs Den: 24-38, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 93.9 rating, L
- 2014 vs Ind: 23-35, 226 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.4 rating, W
- 2015 vs Den: 27-56, 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating, L
- 2016 vs Pit: 32-42, 384 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 127.5 rating, W
TOT: 200-329 (60.8%), 2195 yds, 13 td, 10 int, 81.0 rating, 4-4 record
Another way to look at it....
Versus teams Brady typically eats up
- 2001 vs Pit: 12-18, 115 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 84.3 rating, W
- 2004 vs Pit: 14-21, 207 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 130.5 rating, W
- 2003 vs Ind: 22-37, 237 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 76.1 rating, W
- 2006 vs Ind: 21-34, 232 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 79.5 rating, L
- 2014 vs Ind: 23-35, 226 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.4 rating, W
- 2016 vs Pit: 32-42, 384 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 127.5 rating, W
TOT: 124-187 (66.3%), 1401 yds, 10 td, 3 int, 99.7 rating, 5-1 record
Versus teams Brady typically struggles against
- 2007 vs SD: 22-33, 209 yds, 2 td, 3 int, 66.4 rating, W
- 2011 vs Bal: 22-36, 239 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 57.5 rating, W
- 2012 vs Bal: 29-54, 320 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 62.3 rating, L
- 2013 vs Den: 24-38, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 93.9 rating, L
- 2015 vs Den: 27-56, 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating, L
TOT: 124-217 (57.1%), 1355 yds, 5 td, 9 int, 66.1 rating, 2-3 record
The good news in all this is that Jacksonville is a team they're playing for the first time this season, AND traditionally Brady handles them well (I know it's not really material here but still): 71.4% completion, 11 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating in 5 career games vs. Jacksonville. Not even counting the playoffs, where twice he absolutely carved them up (2005, 2007).
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Good question.
Tom Brady has zero interceptions and zero incomplete passes on Bye Weeks.
I really don't think that 2007 San Diego game is at all meaningful. First, Brady doesn't really "struggle" against the Chargers. Second, he was hurt every early in that game. Hurt enough to wear a walking boot and be limited in practice for the following week. Hurt enough to struggle badly in the 2007 Super Bowl.
I still stand by that what you're seeing is the result of the fact that most AFCCG opponents are very good teams by definition, and that over the course of 11 (soon to be 12), the results do normalize. No other QB has played in that many conference championship games. The next closest is Montana with 4 fewer appearances (soon to be 5). And, if we're going to mention Montana, we need to mention that he had some stinkers in the early rounds of the playoffs, getting benched twice.
Peyton Manning, John Elway, Dan Marino, Eli, Favre, Rodgers all have had their share of bad games in the playoffs. It's bound to happen to every QB; it's not unique to Brady, nor does it indicate that Brady has some "issue" during the AFCCG.
The Jags defense is certainly capable of forcing Brady into a bad game; noone is (or should be) disputing that. The Jags are also capable of giving up 400+ yards in the air to QB's not nearly as good as Brady.
I still stand by that what you're seeing is the result of the fact that most AFCCG opponents are very good teams by definition, and that over the course of 11 (soon to be 12), the results do normalize. No other QB has played in that many conference championship games. The next closest is Montana with 4 fewer appearances (soon to be 5). And, if we're going to mention Montana, we need to mention that he had some stinkers in the early rounds of the playoffs, getting benched twice.
Peyton Manning, John Elway, Dan Marino, Eli, Favre, Rodgers all have had their share of bad games in the playoffs. It's bound to happen to every QB; it's not unique to Brady, nor does it indicate that Brady has some "issue" during the AFCCG.
The Jags defense is certainly capable of forcing Brady into a bad game; noone is (or should be) disputing that. The Jags are also capable of giving up 400+ yards in the air to QB's not nearly as good as Brady.
Local radio here can do one better.
Guy was saying “dogs only bark up, never down.” His point was that dogs only bark at what they’re afraid of. Sooooooo, since we aren’t hearing any smack talk from New England that means the Patriots don’t respect JAX.
True story.
I went back through all of Brady's playoff opponents, and looked up the opposing defense's rankings across a number of criteria. I then sorted the data into 3 categories: (1) playoff games where Brady had a sub 75 QB rating, (2) playoff games where Brady had a 75-95 QB rating and (3) playoff games where Brady had a 95+ QB rating. That data set is posted below.
I think @BaseballJones is justified in being concerned about the game on Sunday. The Jags defense looks like a lot like units that have given Brady trouble in the past (e.g., 2011 Ravens, 2015 Broncos). Interestingly enough, the Jags defense also looks a lot like units that Brady has torched (e.g., 2004 Steelers, 2014 Seahawks).
What's daunting about the Jags defense is how strongly it ranks across several categories: 1st in pass yards allowed, net yards per attempt, yards per drive and points per drive and 3rd in turnover percentage. What's less daunting about the Jags defense is how it ranks against the run: 21st in rushing yards allowed and 26th in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Their win loss record is also curious -- an elite defense like theirs usually results in better than a 10-6 regular season record, which apparently says something about the quality or consistency of their offense. In 2017, the Jags were 4-2 against their division, 5-0 against the AFC North and 3-4 against everybody else (1-3 against the NFC West, 1-0 against the AFC West, 1-1 against the AFC East).
Coming back to postseason Brady, the Pats are 15-0 when he puts up a QB rating better than 95. We can all agree that if he plays well on Sunday, then our prospects look very bright. When Brady puts up a sub 95 QB rating, the Pats are 11-9 (5-5 when his QB rating is 75-95 and 6-4 when his QB rating is sub 75). So, the Pats are a 55/45 favorite if Brady doesn't play especially well. And, of those 20 games where Brady has a sub 95 QB rating, 11 were at home. The Pats record in those games? 8-3. That's the benefit of having Bill Belichick as your head coach (and probably explains the Vegas line).
I think we'll see a heavy dose of Lewis, White and Burkhead on Sunday, and, as others have mentioned, passing plays targeting the middle of the field.
Lastly, I hope BB puts up a screen shot of the Jaguars Twitter page comparing Brady's and Bortles' playoff losses in the final team meeting. We should also take some solace in the fact that Reche Caldwell will not be allowed anywhere near Foxboro this weekend.
I think @BaseballJones is justified in being concerned about the game on Sunday. The Jags defense looks like a lot like units that have given Brady trouble in the past (e.g., 2011 Ravens, 2015 Broncos). Interestingly enough, the Jags defense also looks a lot like units that Brady has torched (e.g., 2004 Steelers, 2014 Seahawks).
What's daunting about the Jags defense is how strongly it ranks across several categories: 1st in pass yards allowed, net yards per attempt, yards per drive and points per drive and 3rd in turnover percentage. What's less daunting about the Jags defense is how it ranks against the run: 21st in rushing yards allowed and 26th in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Their win loss record is also curious -- an elite defense like theirs usually results in better than a 10-6 regular season record, which apparently says something about the quality or consistency of their offense. In 2017, the Jags were 4-2 against their division, 5-0 against the AFC North and 3-4 against everybody else (1-3 against the NFC West, 1-0 against the AFC West, 1-1 against the AFC East).
Coming back to postseason Brady, the Pats are 15-0 when he puts up a QB rating better than 95. We can all agree that if he plays well on Sunday, then our prospects look very bright. When Brady puts up a sub 95 QB rating, the Pats are 11-9 (5-5 when his QB rating is 75-95 and 6-4 when his QB rating is sub 75). So, the Pats are a 55/45 favorite if Brady doesn't play especially well. And, of those 20 games where Brady has a sub 95 QB rating, 11 were at home. The Pats record in those games? 8-3. That's the benefit of having Bill Belichick as your head coach (and probably explains the Vegas line).
I think we'll see a heavy dose of Lewis, White and Burkhead on Sunday, and, as others have mentioned, passing plays targeting the middle of the field.
Lastly, I hope BB puts up a screen shot of the Jaguars Twitter page comparing Brady's and Bortles' playoff losses in the final team meeting. We should also take some solace in the fact that Reche Caldwell will not be allowed anywhere near Foxboro this weekend.
Reiss thinks Jones to IR. Also said Mitchell wouldn't be activated today. No surprise but I was still holding out a slight hope.
So Reedy can replace Jones on Special Teams but not as 4th CB. What happens there?
The Jags stop the power running game, get decent pressure on the QB without bringing more than one extra rusher, and might have the best pair of CBs in the past decade.
I think the Pats are better positioned than most to attack that D. Gronk and the slot WRs will pose the same matchup problems for JAX as everyone else, the O-Line is playing exceptionally well right now, and of course Brady is Brady. But that shouldn’t diminish the Jags’ formidable strengths, which got them here despite playing one good half out of four in the playoffs.
Think of it as an attempted reverse jinx by a very superstitious Boston sports fan.