Going to LAAA in 2018 - Shohei Ohtani

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We're way overdue for an Otani thread here. Some of you will remember that coming out of high school in 2012 as one of the nation's top prospects, Otani announced his intention to go straight to MLB. It seemed like a done deal, with both the Dodgers and the Sox showing a lot of interest. Then in the 2012 draft Nippon Ham drafted him anyway and, unlike Tazawa, he eventually did agree to terms, and stayed in Japan. There were all kinds of rumors about the hows and whys of that process, as it took a month to come to terms which is unusual. There was some speculation that the team or the league leaned on his family to pressure him to stay, or may have paid his family, and/or may have agreed to post him on the earlier side if he does well and is still intent on going. That exciting origin story out of the way, lets take a look at Otani the player. He is electric, and is the single biggest name in NPB at the moment.

In 2014 he became the first player in Japanese history to record double digit W's as a pitcher, and hit double digit HRs as a hitter. He had a down year at the plate last year, but this season he's taken it to another level both on the mound and at the plate. His final 2016 regular season start clinched the Pacific League #1 seed for Nippon Ham last week, as he threw a CG SHO, 1 H, 1 BB, 15 K, in 125 pitches.

From the Japan Times:
(That) victory left him with a 10-4 record, 1.86 ERA, and 174 strikeouts (in 140 IP). At the plate, he’s hitting .322 with 22 home runs and 67 RBIs in 323 at-bats. He can hit, he can pitch, and he might just be the most interesting man in baseball. NPB fans count their blessings to be able to watch him up close and MLB fans count the days until he (possibly) is available to North American teams.

Otani, who had a pinch-hit double the day before his whirlwind turn on the mound, is a generational talent. He can throw 163 kph and he can mash home runs. He was a pretty decent right fielder, too, before the team put the kibosh on that — lest the established order of things gets shaken up too, too much.
He can quite simply do it all. On Wednesday, he did it from the mound, and his night only added to the growing phenomenon that is Shohei Otani.
He was playing RF 2-3 times per week in between starts for a while last year, but the Fighters eventually moved him to DH for this season. He hit leadoff a few times. He won the ASG HR derby.

Earlier in his career, and the first part of this season, he sat comfortably around 96-97, dialing it up to 100 a few times a game when he needed to. Somewhere around mid-season he said screw it, and in one start threw 31 pitches 160 kph (99+) or higher:

Since then he broke his own domestic record on the gun, recording Japan's first ever 164-kph pitch (just under 102 mph).

That vid is obviously just those 31 pitches; to get a look at some of his other stuff, here's one from the end of last season vs Korea showing every pitch he threw. He held them hitless for the first 6 innings:

Last 3 year pitching splits:
2014 155.1 IP, 179/57 K/BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2015 160.2 IP, 196/46 K/BB, 2.24 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
2016 140 IP, 174/45 K/BB, 1.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

His workload was down a bit this year because of a blister issue on his finger for a few weeks, though he still hit semi-regularly during that time.

The current posting system agreement between MLB and NPB is set to expire this offseason, so who knows what it will look like if/when Otani goes after the 2017 season. But regardless, he is 6'4", 205 lbs, and just turned 22 in July, so if he posts to MLB after the end of next year, he'll still be 23 when he arrives in the majors. The hype machine will soon be in overdrive.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Papi replacement at DH when he's not on the mound?

That kid looks amazing and, you're right, the hype machine is going to be ridiculous. I'm looking forward to it.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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I still remember 2012 when he first came on the radar. I checked every night for any news on him back then, hopefully he'll be posted soon!
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Love the batter that sticks his right leg over the plate while Otani is in the wind-up (second batter bottom video). Never seen that before. Has to be as distracting as hell for a pitcher who has never seen it before.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wouldn't any team who signed him pretty much end his hitting career outside of batting for an NL team every 5th day?
 

gedman211

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A SP/DH would be awesome to see. Or even a DH/closer. Exciting talent. Most Japanese transplants have found their success with offspeed stuff, it would be cool to see a bona-fide flamethrower come here. As Bosox79 mentioned, I doubt american organizations would be adventurous enough to let him play everyday, which is kind of a shame. The traditionalists tend to stifle innovation...not to mention occasionally let their seasons end with 0.54 sitting ready in the bullpen..haha
 

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Otani gets the W in the 1st game of the PLCS, throwing 7 scoreless, 1H, 2BB, 6K.
 

BigMike

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I think a DH/SP would be awesome.

Hit everyday, pitch every 5th day in a lineup with no DH
Would free up a roster spot too, wouldn't it?
I just can't see a major league team doing it. Heck, I don't even think an AL team would let him hit on the days he pitches.

Look at Baumgartner, As good as he is SF has let him pinch hit 7 times in the last 3 years. And I think if he was allowed regular BP, etc, he'd be at worst an above average hitter in the Giants lineup
 

Tokyo Sox

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I was being lazy about changing the thread title but perhaps I won't have to. Story in Japanese this morning that Nippon Ham has ok'd a posting after next season, and they seem to think that any agreements NPB & MLB have in place will supersede anything in the CBA. I guess the jury is still out on that but this is hopeful news.
 

Plympton91

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Ken Rosenthal on MLB Tonight says there is no Otani exception in the new agreement. He would be subject to the international spending caps until he turns 26. I hope he gets an agent and sues and wins, blowing up the whole collective bargaining agreement around amateur players.
 

BoSox Rule

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He can get posted but that doesn't mean he has to sign. He'll just stay over there until he's 25 and get $200 million.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Ken Rosenthal on MLB Tonight says there is no Otani exception in the new agreement. He would be subject to the international spending caps until he turns 26. I hope he gets an agent and sues and wins, blowing up the whole collective bargaining agreement around amateur players.
What grounds would his lawsuit be on, in your estimation?
 

Tokyo Sox

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He can get posted but that doesn't mean he has to sign. He'll just stay over there until he's 25 and get $200 million.
They won't post him if he doesn't want to go. Whether it's 2018 or 2020 or whenever, when he goes it will be with a full intention of signing.
 

Granite Sox

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I saw him pitch and play a handful of times this season while over in Japan on business.

I didn't see it mentioned upthread, but he's pretty tall as well (6' 4"). Hard thrower; not a nibbler at all. For comparative purposes, he's more similar to Yu Darvish in stature, motion and stuff than Daisuke.

That being said, there's room for improvement with his command. Although his velo is dominant, he also faced lots of "chasers" in the NPB, guys that would frequently swing at pitches out of the zone.

As a hitter, he's got a long swing; I think ML pitchers would find a couple of holes and it would be hard for him to adjust if he's trying to pitch as well (Kenny Mayne: not at the same time... that would be a record). His future is as a pitcher with a Bumgarner-esque hitting profile.
 

soxhop411

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soxhop411

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I'm actually kind of shocked he wants to sign this offseason rather than wait until he can get the most amount of money.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Dodgers make a strong play.
 

Back Bay

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No AL club is going to promised him anything. They're making a major investment for him to pitch.
 

soxhop411

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No AL club is going to promised him anything. They're making a major investment for him to pitch.
This isn't just a pitcher though. And he only signed in Japan (after telling teams not to draft him) because the team that drafted him promised they would let him hit.
 

soxhop411

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we could have another good ol fashion bidding war between the Sox and Yanks. Don't know any other reason why the Sox and Yanks would be hoarding a shit load of IFA $$$$
 

jon abbey

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That's a pretty lazy article from Heyman, since he doesn't bother to check how much BOS and NY have already spent in the IFA market. For starters, Flores for BOS cost $3.1M so that's a big chunk out of the $8M right there. NY signed a few big guys also and they're supposed to sign another this week when he turns 16.
 

simplicio

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And Boston's already spent at least $6.1M, the Rangers $3.3 and the Dodgers have a $300k per player cap for this signing period. Not sure how much it matters though; I assume that any deal he takes if he moves this winter will come with a firm handshake regarding an extension.
 

simplicio

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Sure, but how do you police that? The Stanton extension in particular demonstrates that extensions don't necessarily have to represent any sort of savings over free agency. You just hand him a bag of cash and feed the league some blather about faces of the franchise and foreign market opportunities and whatnot, what are they going to do?
 

Cuzittt

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Fine them up the wazoo. Get rid of draft picks. Declare Otani a free agent that can't sign with that team.

Essentially the league could do what they did to the Red Sox for bundling... but with even greater force.

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simplicio

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But what the Sox did was glaringly obvious and didn't have the out of "projected value." Unless Otani comes over and absolutely stinks for a year before receiving $300M, what sort of argument could MLB use to litigate that without hard evidence?
 

kazuneko

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No AL club is going to promised him anything. They're making a major investment for him to pitch.
It all depends on how they evaluate his value as a player and whether they think he can succeed as a pitcher/hitter hybrid. From what I've read, it seems unlikely that he's willing to sign with any team that won't let him hit on his off days. If that's true any team that doesn't want to consider that is not a team that will matter much in the bidding because he won't be signing with them anyway. And I know we are used to money being the deciding factor, but it's pretty clear that that isn't what is most important to Otani. If it was he'd be waiting a year to sign..
 

jon abbey

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It's being reported in the Japanese media that it's official, he is definitely coming to the US after this season. What is not being reported is that since I bought a Ham Fighters hat a couple of months ago, he is a lock for the Yankees. :)
 

ehaz

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It's being reported by everyone now. Looks like he's actually coming.

Who knows if he'll actually be a two way player, but damn he can pitch. Shamed this poor dudes family yesterday with this slider in a game where he was hitting 101mph.

 

sean1562

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is he demanding that he get the opportunity to hit even when not pitching? that seems to close him off to AL teams only, no?
 

jon abbey

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is he demanding that he get the opportunity to hit even when not pitching? that seems to close him off to AL teams only, no?
No one knows yet, but he does play the outfield also, so it shouldn't close him off to anyone.
 

Wingack

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No one knows yet, but he does play the outfield also, so it shouldn't close him off to anyone.
He is going to cause a lot of drama in fantasy baseball leagues, and a lot of rule changes.

Here are the teams out of the chase already:

Ohtani is expected to draw widespread interest from MLB clubs, but 12 teams are unable to pay him in excess of $300,000 this offseason, because of previous spending in excess of international amateur bonus pools. Those teams are the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Reds, Astros, Royals, Athletics, Cardinals, Padres, Giants and Nationals, one source confirmed recently to MLB.com.
 

Tokyo Sox

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Here are the teams out of the chase already:
Those teams are not necessarily out of the chase. If he's leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table by making the move now, I don't think an extra 800k or whatever is going to factor in that much. The Dodgers, for example, continue to send scouts over to see him as much as possible, even in games when he's just hitting. I don't think they'd be doing so if they believed the limited bonus pool money was a meaningful handicap.

EDIT: i guess the Yanks & Rangers could both offer him over 3mil which is more significant, but I still don't think the money is going to be the overriding factor in the decision process.
 
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mt8thsw9th

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is he demanding that he get the opportunity to hit even when not pitching? that seems to close him off to AL teams only, no?
Why would that close him off to the one league that would be able to keep him in the lineup without having to burn a fielding position to do so?
 

Apisith

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It wouldn’t have made a lot of sense for him to leave $100m+ on the table. I’m guessing he was asking for an exception to the age rule or something of that nature.

Edit: I am an idiot who didn’t read the article.
 

VORP Speed

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I have not followed this guy at all. Do people think he will actually be a MLB quality hitter, or is it mostly the pitching driving the interest?