I like big bats and I cannot lie: Acquiring a hitter

johnnywayback

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It seems like this debate is taking place across a few different threads, none of which are specifically devoted to the question of where we want more power to come from in the 2018 lineup. Here are B-Ref pages for the three guys most often mentioned: JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer.

To be honest, Martinez seems like a no-brainer -- and I can't imagine why we'd want either Stanton or Hosmer instead.

1. Martinez is far less injury-prone than Stanton, as others have discussed elsewhere. But it's not clear that Stanton is even a better hitter when healthy.

OPS+, by year, 2013-2017:
MARTINEZ: 79, 154, 139, 142, 166
STANTON: 131, 164, 159, 119, 165​

Oh, and for what it's worth:
HOSMER: 118, 99, 122, 102, 132​

2. Stanton would cost prospects; Martinez and Hosmer would not. Meanwhile, Stanton is due $77 million over the next three years, and then another $218 million over the subsequent eight assuming he doesn't opt out of his contract. We can debate what Martinez would get in free agency, but even if he got the Cespedes deal (4/$110) plus a fifth year, he's much less likely to become a Miguel Cabrera-esque albatross (and, by the way, I can't believe anyone would actually want the original Cabrera albatross!).

3. JD Martinez is a well-below-average defensive outfielder -- and I actually think that works in our favor. Because we can DH him, we don't mind his terrible defense the way other teams who would need him to wear a glove every day should. He's worth more to us than he is to any NL team and any AL team without a hole at DH. No such discount for Stanton or Hosmer.

4. Assuming we can only get one of these guys, what does each mean for the rest of the roster? Sign Hosmer, and we still need a DH, preferably a RH one (Benintendi, Devers, and Hosmer should all be in or near the heart of the lineup): Assuming that Hanley Ramirez is that DH makes it more likely he triggers his 2019 option, which we don't want. Sign Martinez, though, and you can still trade for Justin Bour, or you can re-sign Moreland -- a perfectly adequate 1B option who hits well at Fenway and has experience in Boston -- for a reasonable cost to fill out the lineup. Hanley still plays plenty: at DH when one of the OF needs a day off and we suffer through Martinez in LF, at 1B against lefties, pinch-hitting, etc. Just not 500 PA worth.

I dunno. To me, deciding to win the bidding for JD Martinez seems like a no-brainer approach to the situation.
 

soxfan121

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Hosmer has a reputation as a clubhouse leader. And he has a ring. All else being close to equal, they should focus on killing two birds with one stone, get a decent enough bat and a guy who can step into the obvious leadership void.
 

ehaz

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Hosmer has a reputation as a clubhouse leader. And he has a ring. All else being close to equal, they should focus on killing two birds with one stone, get a decent enough bat and a guy who can step into the obvious leadership void.
Eric Hosmer career SLG%: .439
Moreland career SLG%: .439

I have absolutely no interest in giving Hosmer a Jason Heyward type overpay because of intangibles.
 

TomBrunansky23

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I wanted to put forth Joey Votto as a possibility then I saw what's left on his deal as a 34 year old - 6 more years at $25mm per plus a team option at $20 mm for a seventh. No thanks.
 

ehaz

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I wanted to put forth Joey Votto as a possibility then I saw what's left on his deal as a 34 year old - 6 more years at $25mm per plus a team option at $20 mm for a seventh. No thanks.
Joey Votto may be 34, but over the last three seasons he's averaged 159 games per year with a .320/.449/.557 line. Maybe it won't be pretty in years 5 and 6, but if I had to pick between Votto and JD Martinez being worth the next ~3/4 seasons of their contracts, I'm going with the hall of famer. Over the last three seasons, his numbers are even with Trout. The only difference is Trout gets a few points on Votto in terms of SLG% while Joey Votto walks more, hits for average at a slightly higher clip, and strikes out less than Trout.

That being said, Votto isn't coming. He's refused to waive his no trade clause and wants to finish out his career with the Reds.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I'm not sure I want Stanton and his injury history on that contract, and that's before we start talking about acquisition cost. The Marlins can't and won't just give him away. Do people really want to give up, say, Beni and Groome for Stanton? Count me out.

AZ could obviously open the vault to keep JDM. I'm not interested in him at 6+ years and $25M+. But if the Sox are willing to increase payroll, then I agree that he'd be a nice addition to replace Chris Young's role and DH, for Cespedes-like money. But would he also mean no more Moreland, with Hanley going back to 1st? That's problematic.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Of the options offered, Martinez is the most intriguing. I also think he's going to be too expensive for the Red Sox unless their "failure" this season inspires a drunken spending spree.

They don't have the prospects to compete for Stanton. Period. It's not even worth thinking about.

Hosmer doesn't intrigue me at all. I'd rather bring back Moreland on a shorter, cheaper deal than overpay for Hosmer career year and "championship pedigree".

IMO, the big bat for 2018 is already in the lineup and playing 3B.
 

soxfan121

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Eric Hosmer career SLG%: .439
Moreland career SLG%: .439

I have absolutely no interest in giving Hosmer a Jason Heyward type overpay because of intangibles.
Eh, Hosmer's career OPS+ is 111 and Moreland's is 99; Hosmer's had some poor years that drag his overall number down while Moreland has a career high of 116, below Hosmer's high water marks.

Oh, and Hosmer's 28 while Moreland is 32.

Leadership and clubhouse chemistry matters. If the other options are close in on field performance then paying a little for desperately needed intangibles is a smart move. We're not running 1s and 0s out there; the human factor does matter and is important. All else being close to equal, go get the guy who improves the team on and off the field.
 

Jungleland

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Of the options offered, Martinez is the most intriguing. I also think he's going to be too expensive for the Red Sox unless their "failure" this season inspires a drunken spending spree.

They don't have the prospects to compete for Stanton. Period. It's not even worth thinking about.

Hosmer doesn't intrigue me at all. I'd rather bring back Moreland on a shorter, cheaper deal than overpay for Hosmer career year and "championship pedigree".

IMO, the big bat for 2018 is already in the lineup and playing 3B.
I think I agree with all of this. Martinez is a no-brainer if you believe there will be an Edwin Encarnacion-esque market collapse for him, but age alone makes that a virtual impossibility before even looking at the current market vs that of last offseason. I'm much more comfortable going into 2018 with an identical lineup and banking on improvements from Beni, Devers, and Mookie than June 2018 threads on why Eric Hosmer isn't hitting much over replacement level.

Exploring the Bour trade market regardless of other moves is intriguing as well, and I'd hope tires are kicked there. But beyond a comparable small deal as that or a surprisingly reasonable contract for JDM, I don't want major changes. As frustrating as the final two weeks of the season and ALDS were, this doesn't feel like the year to blow up the core barring Xander Bogaerts's trade value being far higher than I imagine it is at the moment.
 
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paulb0t

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This is coming from someone who pines for Stanton. Pundits had Stanton as "un-movable" before his post-ASG surge this season because of his monster contract, and his injury history is obviously a concern. If he's near free w/ some bad money going back (Hanley?), you jump – but after his season + new ownership group/etc, I don't think there's any ways that happens. What's an acceptable acquisition cost? If it's prospects, it probably starts with Groome/Chavis, and probably someone like JBJ and/or ERod. I think that's an easy pass.

If JD Martinez is available, and only costs money – then he's the obvious choice here (within reason). He won't cost a draft pick/prospects/etc, and can easily slot into the Hanley slot in the lineup (with Hanley going to 1B I guess?). He also provides some limited OF flexibility if they end up trading someone like JBJ for whatever reason.

Hosmer is interesting, but I never really put him in the big-bat category. I don't think he fixes the middle of the order, and really wouldn't be interested in losing a pick for him unless he was a secondary addition.
 

ehaz

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Eh, Hosmer's career OPS+ is 111 and Moreland's is 99; Hosmer's had some poor years that drag his overall number down while Moreland has a career high of 116, below Hosmer's high water marks.

Oh, and Hosmer's 28 while Moreland is 32.

Leadership and clubhouse chemistry matters. If the other options are close in on field performance then paying a little for desperately needed intangibles is a smart move. We're not running 1s and 0s out there; the human factor does matter and is important. All else being close to equal, go get the guy who improves the team on and off the field.
I'm not denying that Hosmer is a far more appealing player than Mitch Moreland, but it's not a ~$140M gap. And that is likely what Hosmer will get as a highly regarded 27 year old coming off a career year. Unfortunately, his 2016 line of .266/.328/.433 is far closer to his career averages than the .318/.385/.498 line he put up this year.

Hosmer has a great reputation in the game. And that's kind of unfortunate in this case, because he's going to be severely overpaid. He has a ring, the mentioned 'intangibles', and is a three time Gold Glover, despite having a -8.0 dWAR across his entire career (career UZR of -29.0).

Carlos Santana is a better hitter than Hosmer. And reputation aside, a statistically better first baseman as well.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Eh, Hosmer's career OPS+ is 111 and Moreland's is 99; Hosmer's had some poor years that drag his overall number down while Moreland has a career high of 116, below Hosmer's high water marks.

Oh, and Hosmer's 28 while Moreland is 32.

Leadership and clubhouse chemistry matters. If the other options are close in on field performance then paying a little for desperately needed intangibles is a smart move. We're not running 1s and 0s out there; the human factor does matter and is important. All else being close to equal, go get the guy who improves the team on and off the field.
On Moreland's side is also that he's a better defender and has already established a solid baseline of performance in Big Bad Boston. Eric Hosmer is the younger, better player, but they aren't that far apart. Paying a little more for that improvement in performance and whatever intangibles there may be makes sense. Moreland just signed a 1 yr/$5.5M deal and had a season in line with his career averages. Hosmer made $12M last year and had the best year of his career. We're not going to be talking about paying a little more.
 

nothumb

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The Hanley issue is probably the rub here. If JD is willing to DH a lot and the FO is willing to spend the money, I'm happy to have him... but it probably means Hanley is your primary 1B for 2018, and, if healthy, will vest his option. (On the other hand, being forced to play 1B every day might cause him to miss time and miss his option, though then you are left with Sam Travis or Brock Holt playing 1B since you aren't bringing a Moreland type guy in to get 200 AB).

It might be worth it (and even worth the risk of having Hanley in 2019) depending on the other options, but we should just be clear on what's happening.
 

nvalvo

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The Hanley issue is probably the rub here. If JD is willing to DH a lot and the FO is willing to spend the money, I'm happy to have him... but it probably means Hanley is your primary 1B for 2018, and, if healthy, will vest his option. (On the other hand, being forced to play 1B every day might cause him to miss time and miss his option, though then you are left with Sam Travis or Brock Holt playing 1B since you aren't bringing a Moreland type guy in to get 200 AB).

It might be worth it (and even worth the risk of having Hanley in 2019) depending on the other options, but we should just be clear on what's happening.
...or Michael Chavis, who will play both corners in the AFL, and will probably reach AAA mid-season.
 

johnnywayback

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I think counting on Chavis, who is far from a finished product offensively and a total question mark defensively, is a mistake.

Hanley can get 300-350 PA as a platoon 1B and once-a-week DH. Enough to have a real role and capitalize if he returns to form, not enough to kill us (and/or trigger the option) if he doesn’t.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Of the options offered, Martinez is the most intriguing. I also think he's going to be too expensive for the Red Sox unless their "failure" this season inspires a drunken spending spree.

They don't have the prospects to compete for Stanton. Period. It's not even worth thinking about.

Hosmer doesn't intrigue me at all. I'd rather bring back Moreland on a shorter, cheaper deal than overpay for Hosmer career year and "championship pedigree".

IMO, the big bat for 2018 is already in the lineup and playing 3B.
I'm bullish as anyone on Devers, but I think it's a fallacy to count on him to carry the offense in 2018. If he's gonna go out there and OPS .900 with 35 home runs, fine. But whatever he's going to give you, capitalize on it, rather than depend on it.
 

nothumb

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I think counting on Chavis, who is far from a finished product offensively and a total question mark defensively, is a mistake.

Hanley can get 300-350 PA as a platoon 1B and once-a-week DH. Enough to have a real role and capitalize if he returns to form, not enough to kill us (and/or trigger the option) if he doesn’t.
Ok, but platooning with who in this scenario? Are you taking a flyer on a super cheap LHH 1B? How is this working from a roster construction angle?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm bullish as anyone on Devers, but I think it's a fallacy to count on him to carry the offense in 2018. If he's gonna go out there and OPS .900 with 35 home runs, fine. But whatever he's going to give you, capitalize on it, rather than depend on it.
I think he'll be a big bat (25-30+ HR, .850-.900+ OPS) but I'm not suggesting he'll be expected to carry the offense. I think he can be a strong middle of the order bat complimenting improved performance from a number of other returning players like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Bradley and Ramirez.
 

twosevenkid

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How about Moustakas? Depth to corner infield, 38 HR in 2017. If we sign another outfielder then we need to move JBJ, Benintendi or Betts. I can't see one of them coming off the bench

Also, I don't think he'll be as pricey as JD, Hosmer or Stanton, while still providing a nice upside
 

Kielty's Last Pitch

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Why do people assume Stanton is not a leader? Because he's quiet? Tek and Dewey were extremely quiet, they weren't leaders either?

When Fernandez passed away, it was Stanton who stepped up and brought the team together.

And then he said this:

“People see that and act like that’s the first time I’ve ever spoken in my seven years. But just because you’re not out here making speeches, making sure all the video cameras are around, that’s the main thing I don’t like, actually, is doing things because, ‘Oh, the cameras are here, so let me do it just so people see that.”
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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For those that think the team should trade for Stanton, what do you think the team has that could get a deal done? I ask this while pointing out that the idea that him being on a market rate deal means he shouldn't cost much is a fantasy. That's not how the actual trade market works. He's going to bring the Marlins a big package.

So what do the Sox have to offer that can compete with teams like the Yankees, Braves, Phillies or White Sox? I don't think they have any chance of making a deal for him without destroying the major league roster, so I don't think there's any chance it's happening. Convince me I'm wrong.
 

BigMike

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This is coming from someone who pines for Stanton. Pundits had Stanton as "un-movable" before his post-ASG surge this season because of his monster contract, and his injury history is obviously a concern. If he's near free w/ some bad money going back (Hanley?), you jump – but after his season + new ownership group/etc, I don't think there's any ways that happens. What's an acceptable acquisition cost? If it's prospects, it probably starts with Groome/Chavis, and probably someone like JBJ and/or ERod. I think that's an easy pass. .
See if the price were JBJ, Erod, and Groome, I think I do that deal. That is cheap for Stanton. I can't imagine Miami does it without either Benintendi or maybe Bogaerts as part of a package, and given Xander's skyrocketing pricetag not sure he would be an option for Miami
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Since the Sox apparently showed little to no interest in acquiring Martinez during the summertime trade season, why would they be interested in breaking the bank to get him now?
 

nvalvo

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Since the Sox apparently showed little to no interest in acquiring Martinez during the summertime trade season, why would they be interested in breaking the bank to get him now?
We were staying under the LT threshold in 2017 to reset the rates, but will almost certainly be over in 2018, even if don't sign anyone.

edit: To clarify, we got very, very close to the threshhold, and even a prorated portion of his AAV of $9m-ish would have put us over.
 

grimshaw

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No thanks on Stanton.

I just don't think there is a feasible deal there for the Sox. If you are going to have to give up top assets (and really, I'm not convinced yet because of the length and structure of the deal not the $$ value), then just try to get JD Martinez, or punt on lesser guys. It's incredibly risky to go all in here.
 

barbed wire Bob

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For those that think the team should trade for Stanton, what do you think the team has that could get a deal done? I ask this while pointing out that the idea that him being on a market rate deal means he shouldn't cost much is a fantasy. That's not how the actual trade market works. He's going to bring the Marlins a big package.

So what do the Sox have to offer that can compete with teams like the Yankees, Braves, Phillies or White Sox? I don't think they have any chance of making a deal for him without destroying the major league roster, so I don't think there's any chance it's happening. Convince me I'm wrong.
The Marlins need pitching don’t they? If you assume the 2018 Red Sox starting rotation will be Price, Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello and either Wright or Fister then maybe you could trade EdRod, Velazquez and/or Kelly or some other pitching prospect. Just a thought.
 

SydneySox

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I'm bullish as anyone on Devers, but I think it's a fallacy to count on him to carry the offense in 2018. If he's gonna go out there and OPS .900 with 35 home runs, fine. But whatever he's going to give you, capitalize on it, rather than depend on it.
Yes, and we literally just came off a year where everyone one of our young superstar hall-of-fame-to-be players had a down year.

Devers is 20. Putting anything more on him than a support role appears to be a very poor idea.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Corner Infield ie. 3B or 1B.

Meaning: Devers, Hanley, Moustakas at the corners / DH
No. The Sox need a high-AVG high-OBP slugger, not someone who an only be projected to hit for an OBP in the .310 range.

If they're going to go down the Moustakas path, may as well just sign Logan Morrison for a pittance and keep Devers at 3B.

But the key to a real middle-of-the-order bat is someone with a good eye and good contact rates to grease OBP, along with a low GB/FB ratio and solid exit velocity to drive the high-AVG and SLG. Basically, the kind of guy they had in Ortiz, and thought they were getting in Hanley.

Votto and Freeman are that kind of hitter, Cabrera and Hanley used be...but guys like Moustakas and Morrison and Frazier are definitely not.
 

BoSox Rule

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Did Mookie Betts have a down year? His fWAR the last three years reads 4.9/7.9/5.3. It's probably not a stretch to say he's the player he was in 2015 and 2017 as opposed to Mike Trout-lite, and I'd sign up for that.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The Marlins need pitching don’t they? If you assume the 2018 Red Sox starting rotation will be Price, Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello and either Wright or Fister then maybe you could trade EdRod, Velazquez and/or Kelly or some other pitching prospect. Just a thought.
Eduardo is either arb 1 or his last pre-arb year next year (depends on if he is a Super 2 or not), so he's got some significant value, but neither Velazquez nor Kelly would be even remotely enticing for Jeter. So what do you add? It's the same issue with starting off with Benintendi. They don't have the chips to put around him.

You could offer Benintendi and Rodriguez, but that's still not going to be enough I don't think. Maybe a year ago Groome would have had enough value to get them there. I don't think he or Chavis move the needle much, though. If the Yankees are interested, they're going to be tough (if not impossible) to beat. The White Sox, too. Kopech, Rutherford, Robert, Cease, Hansen, Collins, Dunning, Fulmer, Burger, Burdi... that's a ton of chips to build a package with and they don't have to touch Eloy to make it work.

Hell, a Stanton trade could make them a dark horse for a Wild Card next year.
 

johnnywayback

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Andrew Benintendi on his contract is a more valuable asset than Giancarlo Stanton on his contract.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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The great thing about Stanton being injury prone and being expensive was we had finally moved on from the pipedream. And now here we go again! It's isn't happening people, the sooner you realize this the sooner you check back in to reality!

My guess is there will be someone available we're not even thinking about yet (1st base, preferably) thru trade. Who that is, I have no guesses yet. Wow, this was a productive post, sorry move on, nothing to see here!
 

Pitt the Elder

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Did Mookie Betts have a down year? His fWAR the last three years reads 4.9/7.9/5.3. It's probably not a stretch to say he's the player he was in 2015 and 2017 as opposed to Mike Trout-lite, and I'd sign up for that.
And that's with a pretty terrible two-month slump in July and August. It's probably too much to hope that he won't have a slump during the season but I think we can hope that his slumps will be shorter. It's probably reasonable to suggest that Mookie's season-to-season floor and ceiling is 5-8 fWAR.

Would you take the over or under on 6.5 fWAR next year?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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And that's with a pretty terrible two-month slump in July and August. It's probably too much to hope that he won't have a slump during the season but I think we can hope that his slumps will be shorter. It's probably reasonable to suggest that Mookie's season-to-season floor and ceiling is 5-8 fWAR.

Would you take the over or under on 6.5 fWAR next year?
Under. Defense fluctuates as much (if not more) than offense from year to year. He's a great defender, but the metrics might not rate him as well next year. So any positive regression with the bat will likely be met with some negative regression in the field.

I think I'd take the over on 5.0 fWAR, but 6.5 is way too high to make that bet on. And that's with the assumption that his bat is probably in the 120-130 wRC+ range for true talent going forward.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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For all the speculation, I don't think any of us have a good idea at this point what the acquisition cost would be for Stanton, and this obviously impacts the choices here.

At least before his late-season surge, the consensus seemed to be that his contract made him completely untraceable, unless the Marlins were to eat a significant portion of the remaining salary. The late-season surge makes his contract look perhaps a bit more palatable, but there are still obvious concerns with his injury history and durability, especially with the uncertainty inherent in the opt-out.

there are other areas of uncertainty regarding his trade market. First, what will the new Marlins ownership want for him, and how motivated are they to move him? What are their motives - is it primarily just to move the money off the books, or is it to start a full-scale rebuild? It could be both, but as new owners they may recognize that they'd probably take a huge credibility hit by committing to a full-scale rebuild and several 100 loss seasons right off the bat, so maybe they will not be looking for a prospect-laden package, but one with more current MLB talent. And how important is it to move his contract - just desirable, or basically essential due to their debt position after purchasing the team?

The other side of the equation is also uncertain. We really don't know how many teams are willing and able to take on his contract. And what would they be willing to offer for him? Other teams may be able to offer more than the Red Sox, but are they willing to do so? We don't know if Cashman even wants him, or whether he wants to save his money for Manny and/or Harper, or, if he is interested in Stanton, what he'd be willing to give up for him.

I think they have to at least explore the market for Stanton - due diligence if nothing else. I certainly don't want to see a repeat of the situation like when they signed Pablo as the "best available option" at 3b and then Donaldson got traded for a reasonable cost a month later.

As for JD, he's also worth pursuing, but to me it depends on cost and contract length - I wouldn't get into a costly bidding war for him. And I certainly wouldn't for Hosmer, who I think will end up getting paid a lot more than he's worth.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Ok, but platooning with who in this scenario? Are you taking a flyer on a super cheap LHH 1B? How is this working from a roster construction angle?
Right. I'm having trouble envisioning Hanley/Martinez compatibility. Hanley won't play 162 games at first base. Assuming Martinez can't play there, who gets the other games there?

Does that mean we need a utility guy who can play first base in addition to other infield positions? Or are we going with a 1B platoon guy and a separate utility guy for 3B/2B/SS. If the former, assuming you occasionally want to platoon him with Hanley, you're talking about a guy that can play 1B, play 2B and SS, throws right and bats left. Not a ton of guys like that not named Holt, I don't think. If the latter, that's six infielders, one of whom is not a DH, and means we need another decent outfielder that can play all three spots.

I'm having a hard time seeing the roster on opening day, though it could be a failure of imagination on my part. At a minimum, I think JD means we better be prepared for a few hundred Holt at bats.
 

soxfan121

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Right. I'm having trouble envisioning Hanley/Martinez compatibility. Hanley won't play 162 games at first base. Assuming Martinez can't play there, who gets the other games there?

Does that mean we need a utility guy who can play first base in addition to other infield positions? Or are we going with a 1B platoon guy and a separate utility guy for 3B/2B/SS. If the former, assuming you occasionally want to platoon him with Hanley, you're talking about a guy that can play 1B, play 2B and SS, throws right and bats left. Not a ton of guys like that not named Holt, I don't think. If the latter, that's six infielders, one of whom is not a DH, and means we need another decent outfielder that can play all three spots.

I'm having a hard time seeing the roster on opening day, though it could be a failure of imagination on my part. At a minimum, I think JD means we better be prepared for a few hundred Holt at bats.
It pains me to say it, but Marrero at 3b and Devers at 1b. (don't ban me @Cuzittt!!!) Those few hundred at bats might go to Deven Marrero. Which. Yeah. Plus, potentially dicking around with Devers defensive development (or, conceding early that he's not going to stick at 3b long term). The low cost, asset maximization plan is to see if Marrero's one of the very rare guys who cannot hit at all in the minors but somehow has a couple not awful years as a big leaguer. Which. Yeah.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Under. Defense fluctuates as much (if not more) than offense from year to year. He's a great defender, but the metrics might not rate him as well next year. So any positive regression with the bat will likely be met with some negative regression in the field.

I think I'd take the over on 5.0 fWAR, but 6.5 is way too high to make that bet on. And that's with the assumption that his bat is probably in the 120-130 wRC+ range for true talent going forward.
Fair enough. I've been fascinated by Mookie's underlying Fangraphs and Brooks stats, in part because I think the league changed the way they pitched to him this year and his slump was likely a prolonged adjustment to that. To wit, there was a notable spike in breaking pitches thrown to him, specifically sliders (a jump from ~18% to 21%) and pitches off the plate low and away (a jump from 6% to 11%). Perhaps predictablly, Mookie's batted ball profile show's a greater tendency to pull the ball (up 5% from last year with a corresponding 5% drop in oppo) with a drop in line drives (down 2.5%) and spike in fly-balls and infield-fly-balls (both up 3%). That said, his k rate remained the same (11%, though it spiked during his slump) while his bb rate jumped (6% to 10%). This might be obvious to those watching the games, but looks like pitchers were working Mookie's away with slop and, though he could lay off it sometimes and work a walk, he would try to pull the ball and rather than drive it he would hit a weak pop up or lazy fly ball. I'm curious if he made an adjustment in September and whether that's something he can carry into next season.
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
Right. I'm having trouble envisioning Hanley/Martinez compatibility. Hanley won't play 162 games at first base. Assuming Martinez can't play there, who gets the other games there?

Does that mean we need a utility guy who can play first base in addition to other infield positions? Or are we going with a 1B platoon guy and a separate utility guy for 3B/2B/SS. If the former, assuming you occasionally want to platoon him with Hanley, you're talking about a guy that can play 1B, play 2B and SS, throws right and bats left. Not a ton of guys like that not named Holt, I don't think. If the latter, that's six infielders, one of whom is not a DH, and means we need another decent outfielder that can play all three spots.

I'm having a hard time seeing the roster on opening day, though it could be a failure of imagination on my part. At a minimum, I think JD means we better be prepared for a few hundred Holt at bats.
If you sign Martinez and re-sign Moreland, the bench is Leon, Hanley, an infielder (Hernandez would be my preference, but maybe Marrero or Holt), and a fourth player of your choosing -- depending on Pedroia's health, I'd suggest it be someone who can play 2B a couple times a week, so maybe you hang onto Holt.

Hanley starts, say, 40 games at 1B, and another 40 at DH (10 in which Martinez is off, 30 in which his presence in LF allows one of the OF to rest).

If you don't re-sign Moreland, Sam Travis makes the team and fills that role. Point is, having a DH who can fill the Chris Young role of giving an OF an occasional day off opens up an extra bench spot.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
42,271
AZ
If you sign Martinez and re-sign Moreland, the bench is Leon, Hanley, an infielder (Hernandez would be my preference, but maybe Marrero or Holt), and a fourth player of your choosing -- depending on Pedroia's health, I'd suggest it be someone who can play 2B a couple times a week, so maybe you hang onto Holt.

Hanley starts, say, 40 games at 1B, and another 40 at DH (10 in which Martinez is off, 30 in which his presence in LF allows one of the OF to rest).

If you don't re-sign Moreland, Sam Travis makes the team and fills that role. Point is, having a DH who can fill the Chris Young role of giving an OF an occasional day off opens up an extra bench spot.
What happens if Martinez is your DH and Bradley fouls a ball off his foot in the second inning? Gotta make one of your infielders be a Holt type, right?

Using a bench spot for a lefty 1B platoon with no other tools eliminates an awful lot of flexibility. Maybe it's workable. Finding a guy that can play first but has other positions, but has to bat left while throwing right, is tough.

If you bank on a Swiss Army knife like Holt all year and he takes a knock, you'll find yourself with a short bench and less than optimal late game or extra inning flexibility.
 

soxeast

New Member
Aug 12, 2017
206
If the Sox sign JD and Moreland - the team's salary would escalate to $240M. Will the Sox really go that high?
Would it be possible because next year they lose Hanley and maybe trade a Porcello, or lose Pomeranz, and trade a core player?
 

rajendra82

elimination day disfunction
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Jul 16, 2005
4,932
Atlanta, GA
Stanton would be awesome to have, but likely too expensive to get. If DD can somehow get him with just losing Bradley and one of Porcello/Edro/Pomeranz off the major league roster, I would go for it.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
4,948
In addition to a big bat in the middle of the lineup, one thing that the Red Sox definitely need is hitting off the bench. ~825 ABs were given to Brock Holt, Chris Young, Sandy Leon, and Deven Marrero. If they can't re-sign Nunez, they need a replacement.

My vote would be Howie Kendrick. Will be 34 years old but is coming off a .314/.368/.475 year (91 games), and he's spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF over the last two years. Not a perfect comparison, but Young was 31 years old off of a 140 game season when Boston gave him 2/$13M.
 

Apisith

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Oct 19, 2007
3,208
Bangkok
Signing JD would be a pretty shortsighted move. We’d be getting a 4 win player on his downward curve, locked into a probable 5-7 year contract. And we’d have to trade Bradley who is a 3 win player and cost controlled.

The best long term move would be to make smaller trades and hope we can bounce back years from our starters plus maybe Swihart or Travis break through. Don’t play Hanley enough so that his option vests.

Then next year play the Harper and Machado bingo.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,091
I'm only lukewarm to the to the idea of Martinez but to me that is clearly a superior option to Stanton. Assuming a five year deal, I'd rather sign him than trade nothing for 100% of Stanton's contract. If you factor in a significant trade cost, I can't understand why anyone would even consider Stanton.
 
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