The Kids Are Clutch, The Future Is Very Bright (we're gonna be okay)

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Rafael Devers hit an inside the park home run in the 9th inning tonight to cut the lead to one. He doesn't shy away from big moments, he thrives in them. Papi's replacement is here:


(Can't embed that gif, sorry)

And that's after he put the Sox ahead in game 3 with a home run that made it into the stands, making him one of 6 players to homer in the postseason before turning 21.



That's the company he keeps.

Oh, and here's the greatest bat flip in the history of bat flips:


Andrew Benintendi hit a 2 run homer to put the team ahead in the 5th today and had a season that would probably have won him a rookie of the year award in most other years.

Mookie Betts had, by all accounts, a down year and was still worth 5.3 fWAR and 6.4 rWAR. Seriously, his floor is still 5-6 wins. That's awesome.

Chris Sale is a beast. If they treat him like Pedro for the next couple years, he should be fresher in the playoffs. Give him a break around the All Star break to recharge his batteries and enjoy the ride the rest of the way. Poor finish or not, he's the most talented pitcher to don a Red Sox uni since Pedro.

Christian Vazquez is a league average hitter. We'd have killed for that when he first came up. A league average bat with his glove, framing, game calling and that 1000 yard stare makes for one of the better catchers in the game.

Drew Pomeranz faded down the stretch again but stretched his effectiveness out a bit further than last year. Give him a break mid-season too, and he might continue to be an excellent 5ish inning pitcher through the playoffs next year.

Eduardo Nunez was a fantastic find for Fenway and should make for an excellent Brock Holt replacement at a moderate FA contract.

Craig Kimbrel gave it up today but had an incredible season and is still one of the best relievers in the game. The pen will actually be pretty good with some decent length next year. Carson Smith, Tyler Thornburg, Brandon Workman and Joe Kelly make up a solid mix for the 6th - 8th innings. And that's assuming they don't bring Reed back.

JBJ's inconsistency is maddening, but his glove is as steady as it gets and provides a nice floor for his overall production.

Same with Pedey at this point. If Nunez is on the roster, using him to pinch hit for Pedroia late might be a good way to make the best of the back end of that contract.

This is a really good team that isn't too many moves away from being on the same level as Cleveland, Houston, Cubs and LA (and maybe the Yankees). Sign JD Martinez if you can, and the lineup is basically set for next year (we're not getting rid of Hanley before the 2018-2019 winter, sorry... it can't be ALL good news in the optimism thread). Maybe they get lucky and convince Otani that Boston is the place for him. If not, and they decide they are going hard at the FA class, Yu Darvish doesn't cost any draft picks.

Without any additions, this is still a playoff caliber team. Adding a few names could keep them as the division favorite. And we all know Dealin' Dave doesn't like sitting on his hands during the winter.

The future is bright. Very very bright. And as depressing as it is when any season ends, if nothing else, I'm fucking stoked to see what Rafael Devers does with a full season next year. The kid is fucking special.
 
Last edited:

Pitt the Elder

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 7, 2013
4,439
Thanks for this. By most objective measures, this was a good season, albeit one that ended with disappointment, and there are many reasons to think the young talent this team has will be even better next year.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,543
Devers was terrific. I look forward to the results of a full spring training (assuming with Butter) at 3rd.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,796
Springfield, VA
The window is still wide open, folks. All this team really needs is to add one more bat and to not have the Pedroia wagon break down completely.
 

dbn

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 10, 2007
7,785
La Mancha.
Yes. This is a good time to be a Red Sox fan. I hope they win the World Series every single year up to an including the year an asteroid hits and destroys the earth, but in the meantime I'm going to enjoy watching this group.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,871
NYC
Probably been said, but man, imagine how epic that inside-the-parker would have been had the game been tied? Just needed Sale + Kimbrel to give up only one run in the 8th and 9th — or even two — instead of freaking three. Ugh.

Still stings, but this great diary cheered me up a bit.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,666
Thanks for this. By most objective measures, this was a good season, albeit one that ended with disappointment, and there are many reasons to think the young talent this team has will be even better next year.
We've got to remember that the season ends in disappointment for most teams. There were three 100 win juggernauts this season. At least two of them are going to lose their last game of the season in bitter disappointment, wondering just what the hell they have to do to win it all.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
What makes you think Nunez will settle for a "moderate FA contract?"
I guess it depends on what you consider moderate. If a win is worth 8M or so, a league average player should get paid about $16M a year. The market never quite seems to catch up to the theoretical value of a win, though, and if you add some years, you can bring the AAV down. So 3 years, 10 million per?
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
Rafael Devers hit an inside the park home run in the 9th inning tonight to cut the lead to one. He doesn't shy away from big moments, he thrives in them. Papi's replacement is here:
As DH? Devers made 14 errors in 56 starts at third in regular season and another in today's game. He's going to hit but I don't think he's going to be the long-term answer at third.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,954
I guess it depends on what you consider moderate. If a win is worth 8M or so, a league average player should get paid about $16M a year. The market never quite seems to catch up to the theoretical value of a win, though, and if you add some years, you can bring the AAV down. So 3 years, 10 million per?
Shane Victorino had a really bad year at the plate before he signed with the Sox (also a year older) and got 3 years $13M per. Not a perfect comparison, but factoring in inflation, I'd bet he's getting closer to $45M than $30. The market this year for middle infielders is just Cozart, Walker, and a 37 year old Brandon Phillips.
 

Sox and Rocks

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 16, 2013
5,863
Northern Colorado
As DH? Devers made 14 errors in 56 starts at third in regular season and another in today's game. He's going to hit but I don't think he's going to be the long-term answer at third.
His defense is hard to project because, as you point out, he made some really bad plays at times, but he also has the tools. He's athletic for his size with soft hands. I think it's possible he will improve with better focus and more reps, though he will never be Aranado.
 

Sox and Rocks

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 16, 2013
5,863
Northern Colorado
I think Nunez should be at the top of the wishlist this offseason. His bat and ability to spell an aging Pedey, a young Devers, and an inconsistent Boegarts while also playing left occasionally makes him more valuable for this franchise than other places.
 

Flunky

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 3, 2009
1,918
CT
[Polyanna]This will always be known as the Big Papi hangover season. There are way more painful ways a team can adjust to losing a hall of fame player. Lots of teams don't even make the post season, literally every year, let alone win the division. And they were better than last year, they actually won a post season game.[/Polyanna]

more importantly, if YED is cancelled this year I'm gonna cut someone...
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
Love this. Love Beni and Devers. The young kids are going to be the cornerstone of a group that can be competitive for the next couple years.

I watched Pedey play and it definitely looked bad. But I keep coming back to that knee injury. He needs to come to terms with the fact that he can't run the bases the way he used to, and he needs to figure out how to attack pitches away (btw, did anyone notice how far away he was from the plate? His wingspan isn't that big, he was not going to be competitive on outside pitches, which is where he was pitched)

I think Pedey should be given a chance to come back healthy. Sign Nunez as April insurance and as a way to spell Pedroia and Bogaerts. Look for a decent 4th outfielder who can hit LHPs. The rotation isn't in bad shape. Sale and Price make a pretty dominant 1-2 when healthy, and Edro and Porcello can be excellent 3-4. I feel like Fister will get the Rich Hill contract, and hopefully that will be given by someone else. There will be cheaper 5th pitchers that can deliver the same value.

The big need, I think, is for a power bat that can platoon at 1B with Hanley. Unfortunately, there isn't a ton of that on the FA market. Maybe JD Martinez can come in as the primary DH, spelling Beni occasionally, and you can pick up a different 1B.

The other concern for me is Hanley. If his production, or lack thereof, was a byproduct of the shoulder injury, he might come back as the 2016 or 2017 playoffs version of Hanley, which is worth the price we're paying. But if this decline is real, he cannot be allowed the 400 or so PAs that vest his option. I'd look at him as being a DFA candidate in August if his numbers are bad and he's approaching the threshold.

I agree though, the future is bright. Barring injuries, we're going to be competitive for a third straight division title. And I firmly believe that this year, which saw regression by nearly every player, will be looked at as a floor year in terms of this team during this window.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 19, 2008
3,937
It really is a great time to be a Sox fan, and part of that for me is actually the development of the Yankees. It's going to be really fun watching our young guys go to battle with their young guys.

Mookie vs Judge in RF (which would make for a great debate)
Devers vs Sanchez in the battle of the big bats who play questionable D
Xander vs Didi at SS
Beni vs Bird(?) matching up LH bats
JBJ vs Hicks to see who hits the most while playing good to great defense in CF
Sale vs Severino matching hard throwing aces
The excellent NY bullpen vs Kimbrel and a number of question marks (a lot rests on Smith/Thornburg at this point)

I'm going to enjoy watching these two fight for the AL East for at least the next 5 years.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,605
The other concern for me is Hanley. If his production, or lack thereof, was a byproduct of the shoulder injury, he might come back as the 2016 or 2017 playoffs version of Hanley, which is worth the price we're paying. But if this decline is real, he cannot be allowed the 400 or so PAs that vest his option. I'd look at him as being a DFA candidate in August if his numbers are bad and he's approaching the threshold.
I don't think it works that way. If you DFA a player with a vesting option, I believe that option automatically vests.

The diabolical move is to turn Hanley into Nunez. Tell Hanley to come to camp prepared to be the utility IF and get 25-30 starts at each position {3B, SS, and 2B}. Maybe he'll retire instead.
 

Unin10D

New Member
Feb 7, 2017
257
I don't think it works that way. If you DFA a player with a vesting option, I believe that option automatically vests.

The diabolical move is to turn Hanley into Nunez. Tell Hanley to come to camp prepared to be the utility IF and get 25-30 starts at each position {3B, SS, and 2B}. Maybe he'll retire instead.
You're right, I forgot. Either way, figuring out what to do with that 22 million dollars is going to be tough. I can't see Hanley taking DL stints that would keep him from getting 22 million dollars
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,666
You're right, I forgot. Either way, figuring out what to do with that 22 million dollars is going to be tough. I can't see Hanley taking DL stints that would keep him from getting 22 million dollars
As far as the vesting option goes, you can easily keep him under the plate appearances that would vest his 2018 option. There's no rule that says, "If a player is on the team, you have to start him." His subpar 2017 season and injury history is more than enough to justify a team using him in a sub role of sorts, getting him like 400 ab. He's quite likely not a starting player anymore in the major leagues.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I suppose we can't do anything more than speculate about Sale's decreased effectiveness. Maybe lower usage gets it done, or maybe it's just technique, or maybe Harold Reynolds is right and he's tipping his pitches.

Otherwise, I agree, things are looking up for next year with a not overly large number of decisions yet to be made. Free agents are Reed, Fister, Moreland, Nunez and Young.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,605
Sale may have been tipping some pitches, but his general lack of "stuff" seemed like a much bigger part of his struggles.
 

redsoxstiff

hip-tossed Yogi in a bar fight
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2002
6,772
JCOAStick.Price is a cancer.It is made worse because he is a great pitcher...Must go.
Pedey as tough as he is ,should go...
Bogaerts has faded.
Bradley can,t be carried by a team of Punch and Judy players...
Sale as a late season beast ...ain't,
The mgr has lost the club if he ever had it.

Aura,power great pitching the Astros shocked me and apparently the Sox to.
Jason might be strong enough to right the ship but there is much for Dumbrowski to walk the right path.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,113
Florida
This is a really good team that isn't too many moves away from being on the same level as Cleveland, Houston, Cubs and LA (and maybe the Yankees). Sign JD Martinez if you can, and the lineup is basically set for next year (we're not getting rid of Hanley before the 2018-2019 winter, sorry... it can't be ALL good news in the optimism thread). Maybe they get lucky and convince Otani that Boston is the place for him. If not, and they decide they are going hard at the FA class, Yu Darvish doesn't cost any draft picks.

Without any additions, this is still a playoff caliber team. Adding a few names could keep them as the division favorite. And we all know Dealin' Dave doesn't like sitting on his hands during the winter.

The future is bright. Very very bright. And as depressing as it is when any season ends, if nothing else, I'm fucking stoked to see what Rafael Devers does with a full season next year. The kid is fucking special.
I guess it's my turn to flip the script and take your usual spot as Mr. Conservative.

The potential consequences you've been harping on for going on a year now are very real, and unless we are arguably viewing this from a 2 year window then rebuild pov, going down that "all in" road right now is basically playing right into them. As not only would we be shooting out gate next year flirting with the runaway payroll concern, but it's essentially setting up a very extended period time afterwards where this team is probably going to have to plan on making their living as an perennial LT offender.

Which I'd ultimately be more fine with....if we were actually starting this run with the healthy minor league system already in place that gave us a better chance to insert cost controlled help every time we have to make a transition going forward (such replacing our #2 starter and BP anchor closer next year). Instead of the more likely alternative reality were Groome doesn't become the Sale replacement ace and you end up having to throw a lot of hit or miss replacement money around in FA to stay afloat as a serious contender. The latter miss factor there which has a nasty little habit of taking a dump on best case scenario projection plans, and tends to add up faster then you can shed the old baggage to make room for the new (see: current day situation).

IDK, I just can't sell myself on the non-low balled idea that giving JD Martinez a 6/$180 deal (probably guessing 2 year opt out to boot, just in case Harper/Machado break the market shortly after) is a good idea. Or guarantees we close any perceived gaps with a team like Houston. Or leads to a future 3-4 years down the road where we *aren't* looking at an even more over-bloated payroll backed by a handicapped farm, and calling for DD's head while pointing back to this offseason as when the train started really going off track.

In short I agree that the immediate future is bright. But anything after that 2 mark also comes with a fairly huge asterisk attached imo, and I'm hoping to see a more conservative DD spend accordingly.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
In short I agree that the immediate future is bright. But anything after that 2 mark also comes with a fairly huge asterisk attached imo, and I'm hoping to see a more conservative DD spend accordingly.
The money crunch is short term, though. By the end of 2019, Pablo, Hanley and Porcello come off the books. In fact, the only money on the books is Price, Pedroia and arb awards. They might turn some of the kids into free agent contracts, too (I hope they do), but there just isn't that much money locked up after the 2019 season, so their ability to compete will come down to how good they are at signing the right guys.

The only current arb/pre-arb players who might be worth signing as FA for 2020 are Bogaerts and Thornburg. So even that off season isn't too expensive internally. If anything, they're more likely to go into a prolonged rebuilding phase where they stay well under the threshold because they aren't close enough to competing for it to be worth it to go over.

But they'll still have control over Betts, Benintendi, Devers, JBJ, Pedroia, and Vazquez, which is the bones of a very good team for 2020. They'll lock some of the kids up long term and fill in where they have to after others leave.

Betts, Benintendi and Devers should be around for a long time, and that's a great offensive core to build around.
 
Last edited:

SydneySox

A dash of cool to add the heat
SoSH Member
Sep 19, 2005
15,605
The Eastern Suburbs
Someone good at math shit - if we'd signed Edwin Encarnacion, he of the 2.8 bWAR and 38 homeruns, would it have answered the 'needs' power question?

He started 23 games at first and in this world, would have replaced Mitch Moreland (and his 2 bWAR) on the roster and forced Hanley to play more first when he couldn't.

I just question where this presumed power is going to come from when the obvious solutions always come with obvious follow on issues.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,666
I don't know the answer to your question. And I don't know why the other guys all underperformed. Moreland was right in line with his normal year.

His career numbers: .252/.317/.439/.756, 100 ops+, 0.9 bWAR
His 2017 numbers: .246/.326/.443/.769, 99 ops+, 2.0 bWAR

The problem was everyone else. Here's what the lineup would have looked like with 2016 numbers (except for Devers and Benintendi, who didn't play enough last year), and Moreland's 2017 numbers.

C Leon: 7 hr, .310/.369/.476/.845, 122 ops+
1b Moreland: 22 hr, .246/.326/.443/.769, 99 ops+
2b Pedroia: 15 hr, .318/.376/.449/.825, 117 ops+
3b Devers: 10 hr, .284/.338/.482/.819, 112 ops+
SS Bogaerts: 21 hr, .294/.356/.446/.802, 111 ops+
LF Benintendi: 20 hr, .271/.352/.424/.776, 103 ops+
CF Bradley: 26 hr, .267/.349/.486/.835, 118 ops+
RF Betts: 31 hr, .318/.363/.534/.897, 133 ops+
DH Hanley: 30 hr, .286/.361/.505/.866, 126 ops+

Not that you expect everyone to do what they did the year before, but Moreland in THAT lineup would be just absolutely fine.

That lineup would have been a monster lineup, with the WORST hitter being Moreland's 99 ops+. If you basically have a lineup where everyone is 100 or better, that's really, really good.

Alas....everyone was worse than they were last year. :-(
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
JCOAStick.Price is a cancer.It is made worse because he is a great pitcher...Must go.
I probably shouldn't take the bait here, (there is pretty much no evidence to back up any part of this, unless getting along with the media is now suddenly a critical prerequisite to helping the team). But as far as looking forward, as this post was designed to do, I hope Price is dominant for the Sox next year (and then opts out so they aren't on the hook for the full decline phase).
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,113
Florida
.
The money crunch is short term, though. By the end of 2019, Pablo, Hanley and Porcello come off the books. In fact, the only money on the books is Price, Pedroia and arb awards. They might turn some of the kids into free agent contracts, too (I hope they do), but there just isn't that much money locked up after the 2019 season, so their ability to compete will come down to how good they are at signing the right guys.

The only current arb/pre-arb players who might be worth signing as FA for 2020 are Bogaerts and Thornburg. So even that off season isn't too expensive internally. If anything, they're more likely to go into a prolonged rebuilding phase where they stay well under the threshold because they aren't close enough to competing for it to be worth it to go over.

But they'll still have control over Betts, Benintendi, Devers, JBJ, Pedroia, and Vazquez, which is the bones of a very good team for 2020. They'll lock some of the kids up long term and fill in where they have to after others leave.

Betts, Benintendi and Devers should be around for a long time, and that's a great offensive core to build around.
I understand going over the LT this year is pretty much unavoidable, and I'm cool with spending some $$$ as long as we are acknowledging the very real possibility of a prolonged rebuilding phase on the post-2019 horizon.

Just pointing out that there is probably an alternative reality scenario out there atm where Hanley's option doesn't vest, the team feels good enough about itself where we aren't pressured into spending big on the upcoming Kimbrel/Pom front, and we still manage to get back under the LT after 2018. Just in time to pick up 3 extra post-1st round picks from our QO guys that following winter we otherwise wouldn't be (I don't see Xander being extended), and without having totaled up the aging/declining veteran baggage to $75m on 3 guys when starting that process off.

Maybe it ultimately ends up being worth it, but going all in on a JD Martinez type right now definitely throws some future possibilities out the window.
 
Last edited:

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,426
I'm definitely in the positive long term outlook.
I think:
-Nunez should be target number 1 and likely his knee injury will hurt his FA market.
-Devers should stick at 3rd another year (meanwhile Chavis should get time a lot of time at 2B and 3B both to see if he can either make a case to have Devers move across the diamond, or to supplant Pedroia)
-JD Martinez should definitely be pursued heavily. And yeah.... I love JBJ's defense but his streakiness looks to be who he is. Put Martinez in LF, move either Betts or Beni to (or back to) CF.
-JBJ dealt for prospects...

Other things I'm thinking perhaps far too emotionally at this point...
-Sign Reed as the closer. Deal Kimbrel. Further stock up on prospects...
-Considering also trying to bring in CarGo as a 1B/DH/4th OF on a one year deal to see if he can reestablish his offensive game and cash in the following year as a FA.
 

tonyarmasjr

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2010
1,120
I don't know the answer to your question. And I don't know why the other guys all underperformed. Moreland was right in line with his normal year.

His career numbers: .252/.317/.439/.756, 100 ops+, 0.9 bWAR
His 2017 numbers: .246/.326/.443/.769, 99 ops+, 2.0 bWAR
And that includes his broken toe numbers. That's a month and a half of a 25 wRC+. Sans the injury, he actually had a really good year that would have had him an above average first baseman in a year of pretty strong performances. And with 22 HR and 34 2B, he wasn't really the problem in the power department.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,651
Who is giving up prospects for JBJ? We would get very little for him, almost to the point of giving him away. Which potential playoff team would JBJ be a significant upgrade at? I dont think he is all that valuable of a trade chip.
 

tonyarmasjr

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2010
1,120
It seems to be the consensus that J.D. Martinez is the answer to the offensive woes of the 2017 Red Sox. And since he's not going to sign to be a DH, most seem to posit trading JBJ as the logical move. My questions are how much of an upgrade would he be, and at what cost is that worth it? Full disclosure: I generally am in favor of holding on to our homegrown guys. For one, that whole "devil you know" argument, especially in the wake of our big ticket FA deals over the last decade. More importantly, though, I like to follow these guys on their journeys, and after rooting for them for years, they're one of "our guys." It's not just laundry. And in this case, as frustrating as JBJ's streakiness at the plate can be, he's always a joy to watch in CF. He also seems to be a down to earth guy who has succeeded without any apparent freakish physical gifts.

WAR is the average of fWAR and bWAR. WAR/150 G is just for ease of comparison. Durability would obviously a factor.

JBJ
2014: 127 G, .531 OPS, 46 wRC+, 0.6 WAR, 0.7 WAR/150
2015: 74 G, .832 OPS, 123 wRC+, 2.35 WAR, 4.8 WAR/150
2016: 156 G, .835 OPS, 119 wRC+, 5.15 WAR, 5.0 WAR/150
2017: 133 G, .726 OPS, 90 wRC+, 2.9 WAR, 3.3 WAR/150

JDM
2013: 86 G, .650 OPS, 75 wRC+, -1.25 WAR, -2.2 WAR/150
2014: 123 G, .912 OPS, 154 wRC+, 4.1 WAR, 5.0 WAR/150
2015: 158 G, .879 OPS, 136 wRC+, 5.0 WAR, 4.7 WAR/150
2016: 120 G, .908 OPS, 141 wRC+, 1.8 WAR, 2.3 WAR/150
2017: 119 G, 1.066 OPS, 166 wRC+, 4.0 WAR, 5.0 WAR/150

Both guys struggled through a period of adjustment at the plate as they started their MLB careers, JBJ's being more severe as we all know. I included the season before each figured it out. If we throw that out and look at the averages since they blossomed:

JBJ:
121 G, .793 OPS, 109 wRC+, 3.5 WAR, 4.3 WAR/150

JDM:
130 G, .936 OPS, 148 wRC+, 3.7 WAR, 4.3 WAR/150

Martinez is clearly the superior hitter, while Bradley the much better fielder at a position higher up the defensive spectrum. No surprises there. And, really, the difference in defensive value would be the sum of (Bradley-Benintendi in CF) + (Benintendi-Martinez in LF). It would still be significant. However, in rough overall value, the two are pretty damn close. Now, if you ascribe to the "no premium power hitter in the lineup makes everyone else worse" school of thought, then Martinez's skill set holds more value to this team as currently constructed. I don't know that the evidence for it is anything more than anecdotal, though. (Is it?) Two more very large unknowns: 1) What would JBJ fetch in a trade? and 2) What are their contracts going to look like? From my point of view, I don't see Martinez being worth it on a long-term contract in his 30s, making $20M+/yr unless trading JBJ significantly upgrades another aspect of the team and the team doesn't care about the luxury tax for the next couple years.
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
JBJ:
121 G, .793 OPS, 109 wRC+, 3.5 WAR, 4.3 WAR/150

JDM:
130 G, .936 OPS, 148 wRC+, 3.7 WAR, 4.3 WAR/150

Martinez is clearly the superior hitter, while Bradley the much better fielder at a position higher up the defensive spectrum. No surprises there. And, really, the difference in defensive value would be the sum of (Bradley-Benintendi in CF) + (Benintendi-Martinez in LF). It would still be significant. However, in rough overall value, the two are pretty damn close. Now, if you ascribe to the "no premium power hitter in the lineup makes everyone else worse" school of thought, then Martinez's skill set holds more value to this team as currently constructed. I don't know that the evidence for it is anything more than anecdotal, though. (Is it?) Two more very large unknowns: 1) What would JBJ fetch in a trade? and 2) What are their contracts going to look like? From my point of view, I don't see Martinez being worth it on a long-term contract in his 30s, making $20M+/yr unless trading JBJ significantly upgrades another aspect of the team and the team doesn't care about the luxury tax for the next couple years.
This post is really eye opening -- thanks for taking the time to research it.

To me it comes down to whether anyone can prove that having a big bat in the middle of the lineup make the rest of the lineup better, and if so does that benefit justify the $20M per year (some have said it would be more like 6/$180). I am all for giving the kids another year to blossom, especially to see if they can reverse / regress back to the mean in OPS. Crazy that almost every hitter was worse off this year, which lends weight to the big bat in the lineup argument, or conversely to the "new voices are needed" -- especially at hitting coach argument.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,113
Florida
Who is giving up prospects for JBJ? We would get very little for him, almost to the point of giving him away. Which potential playoff team would JBJ be a significant upgrade at? I dont think he is all that valuable of a trade chip.
I think that perspective in skewed by the fact we have 3 center fielders. From the outside looking in, and for a team in need of one, he has pretty decent upside/control appeal imo. Not as much as he would have had we sold high on him last winter obviously, but that's hindsight for you.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,651
I think that perspective in skewed by the fact we have 3 center fielders. From the outside looking in, and for a team in need of one, he has pretty decent upside/control appeal imo. Not as much as he would have had we sold high on him last winter obviously, but that's hindsight for you.
Which team that is a "realistic" playoff contender next year needs a CF?

Yankees-Aaron Hicks Indians-Bradley Zimmer Astros-George Springer Twins-Byron Buxton Angels-Mike Trout Tampa-Kevin Kiermaier

The Royals are losing Lorenzo Cain and def arent going to trade prospects from their barren system for JBJ

The big NL teams are pretty set as well

Dodgers-Joc Pederson Nationals-Michael Taylor(Victor Robles, their top prospect is a CF) Cubs-Albert Almora Dbacks-AJ Pollock Rockies-Charlie Blackmon Cardinals-Dexter Fowler Brewers- Top prospect Lewis Brinson is a CF

JBJ is just not that valuable as a trade chip. What is his market? Which teams are going to look at JBJ, a 28 year old CF coming off his worst season whose value is entirely tied to his defense, and give up any prospects of value for him? If we sign JD Martinez and put him in left, JBJ gets demoted to 4th OF/defensive replacement. We love him because we love his defense, but this season he was a pretty mediocre player, and his value on the trade market will be closely tied to his performance this season.
 

Kielty's Last Pitch

New Member
Oct 6, 2017
118
Sure looks like that to me.
1)NYY, 2)Cleveland, 3)Minnesota, 4)Sox, 5)Cubs
That website has two different sets of Team LOB stats, one labeled "Left On Base Per Game" and the other labeled "Team Left On Base Per Game". Not sure why there's two and why each has such different results?

But using a website I trust (Baseball Reference) has the Sox with the 7th-most LOB per game this year, and 5th-most LOB last year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml

Sox did have 28 fewer LOB this year compared to last year, but last year they had 74 more baserunners via H/BB/HBP/-HR.

Bottom line, last year they were .94 above league average in RPG and this year they were only .20 above league average. The lack of power had a lot to do with it.
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
JBJ has shown roughly the same behavior in batting the past three seasons, namely a slow start, a torrid spell, and then a slow finish. What we do see is that his hot streaks are diminishing in amplitude but we have only seen the low points really increase in one of those seasons. And for the last two seasons his hot streaks have remained about the same length in games. Personally, I would prefer to see his numbers flatten out more.

JBJ -- AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
2015
1st (24 g) .121 .254 .172 .426
2nd (25 g) .446 .489 .952 1.441
3rd (25 g) .138 .247 .263 .510

2016
1st (30 g) .288 .342 .519 .861
2nd (40 g) .317 .428 .628 1.055
3rd (86 g) .236 .312 .408 .720

2017
1st (33 g) .202 .292 .377 .670
2nd (44 g) .318 .386 .524 .910
3rd (56 g) .207 .288 .313 .601
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,426
Who is giving up prospects for JBJ? We would get very little for him, almost to the point of giving him away. Which potential playoff team would JBJ be a significant upgrade at? I dont think he is all that valuable of a trade chip.
I'm not suggesting that we pick up a top prospect... or that he's worth that... but there has got to be some very young high ceiling prospects out there that could be brought back. Many teams could definitely use his skills to improve their CF defense while moving their better offensive players to corners. He clearly has some significant value to other teams but I don't think his value is worth as much on the Sox.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,692
I'm not suggesting that we pick up a top prospect... or that he's worth that... but there has got to be some very young high ceiling prospects out there that could be brought back. Many teams could definitely use his skills to improve their CF defense while moving their better offensive players to corners. He clearly has some significant value to other teams but I don't think his value is worth as much on the Sox.
I see it the other way around - I think JBJ has greater value to the Red Sox than he does to most other teams and I don't see him fetching a premium prospect. He is going to be 28 at the start of the next baseball season. There is the possibility that he finally puts it all together and becomes a steadier and more productive offensive player, but there is a greater likelihood that his current performance is as good as it gets. He's also becoming more expensive as he enters his arbitration years and is represented by Scott Boras. Bradley doesn't seem to fit the profile of a hot commodity who would be valuable to a wide range of teams - by contrast, he would seem to be valuable primarily to a contending team who would be willing to accept his streaky hitting in order to upgrade their outfield defense. Add all of this up and Dave Dombrowski would be negotiating from a position of weakness if the Red Sox sign a replacement and are essentially forced to deal Bradley.