2017 NBA offseason thread

Sam Ray Not

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And the non-existent defense. Can you imagine the playoffs when IT is also back? That's going to be ugly.
If I were Lue, come playoff time I'd just sit Rose altogether and limit IT (if he's healthy by then) to 15-18 mpg as a bench sparkplug. A seven-man core rotation of LeBron, JR, Wade, Korver, Crowder, Love and TT is still pretty formidable.

Honestly, if I were the Cavs I might just cut Rose now, as he's basically 100% redundant to Wade, only worse; and unlike Calderon and Felder, he's a prima donna who's likely to grumble and squawk if his minutes are heavily curtailed. I kinda feel like their chances of winning the East and bothering the WC Champ are inversely proportional to how many minutes Lue sees fit to give Rose.
 

cheech13

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While the Cavs offseason has been chaotic and seemingly directionless the only major rotation player they've lost is Kyrie, but they've added IT (if healthy), Wade, Crowder, Green, Rose, Calderon and Osman. At the very least they are a little deeper in the backcourt and on the wing. If they can get solid minutes out of a few of those guys it'll go a long way toward saving Lebron for the playoffs. I don't know if they'll be better, but they could be slightly more versatile in some matchups as well. I'll be interested to see how they mesh.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If I were Lue, come playoff time I'd just sit Rose altogether and limit IT (if he's healthy by then) to 15-18 mpg as a bench sparkplug. A seven-man core rotation of LeBron, JR, Wade, Korver, Crowder, Love and TT is still pretty formidable.

Honestly, if I were the Cavs I might just cut Rose now, as he's basically 100% redundant to Wade, only worse; and unlike Calderon and Felder, he's a prima donna who's likely to grumble and squawk if his minutes are heavily curtailed. I kinda feel like their chances of winning the East and bothering the WC Champ are inversely proportional to how many minutes Lue sees fit to give Rose.
I'm guessing Rose will have to start off at 30 min+ as the others in your 7-man rotation can't defend the PG position. I'm interested in hearing from the pro-Crowder crew on what they feel his role will be off the bench and how many mph he'll get. He has to return to his Mavericks role of 16-20 mpg, right?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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While the Cavs offseason has been chaotic and seemingly directionless the only major rotation player they've lost is Kyrie, but they've added IT (if healthy), Wade, Crowder, Green, Rose, Calderon and Osman. At the very least they are a little deeper in the backcourt and on the wing. If they can get solid minutes out of a few of those guys it'll go a long way toward saving Lebron for the playoffs. I don't know if they'll be better, but they could be slightly more versatile in some matchups as well. I'll be interested to see how they mesh.
These guys would have been gone undefeated in 2010.

Seeing how IT and Kyrie are at best a wash, the only guy they got who really can be counted on to fill a need is Crowder. I guess Wade or Rose will give them scoring on the second unit but for a team that couldn't stop GSW basically at all, they didn't do a lot to address that.

That being said, Jeff Green theoretically could be a guy they really need on defense - particularly to guard KD. Two years ago, he apparently hit almost 38% of his catch and shoot 3Pers (closer to 30% last year though) so theoretically if he can shoot 35+% from 3P, not have to do a lot of playmaking, and use his length on defense, he + LBJ + Crowder could be a good core for crunch time.

Or he could be the Jeff Green we all expect.
 

cheech13

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I'm guessing Rose will have to start off at 30 min+ as the others in your 7-man rotation can't defend the PG position. I'm interested in hearing from the pro-Crowder crew on what they feel his role will be off the bench and how many mph he'll get. He has to return to his Mavericks role of 16-20 mpg, right?
The rumor has been that Love is going to shift to the five so that Crowder can start next to Lebron. Thompson would go to the bench. I don't see that being a long-term solution but it is a plan they're considering.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The rumor has been that Love is going to shift to the five so that Crowder can start next to Lebron. Thompson would go to the bench. I don't see that being a long-term solution but it is a plan they're considering.
That could make sense in spots but would appear to gave to me matchup dependent. You don't want Love at the 5 against a good number of teams. This will all be so interesting with Tristan being LeBron's boy and all. Lue has his work cut out for him in juggling to keep so many veterans and LeBron happy.
 

JakeRae

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The rumor has been that Love is going to shift to the five so that Crowder can start next to Lebron. Thompson would go to the bench. I don't see that being a long-term solution but it is a plan they're considering.
I don't know exactly how they'll play rotations, but there are plenty of frontcourt minutes for all 4 of those guys and sufficient positional flexibility to make it work.

It's harder to see how they manage their guard egos. Korver, Rose, Thomas, Smith, and Wade are not going to be happy if they aren't playing real minutes and there aren't enough minutes for all of them. That doesn't even consider finding minutes for Shumpert or Calderon. Ultimately, health may solve this problem for them. They are probably hoping to enter the playoffs with Korver, Thomas, Smith, and Wade all healthy and the other guys pushed to the bench.
 

the moops

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That could make sense in spots but would appear to gave to me matchup dependent. You don't want Love at the 5 against a good number of teams.
What are these teams though? Sure, there are teams where the mismatch is too great, but many times, Love creates as much as a mismatch on the other end of the floor that it is perfectly acceptible.
 

JakeRae

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What are these teams though? Sure, there are teams where the mismatch is too great, but many times, Love creates as much as a mismatch on the other end of the floor that it is perfectly acceptible.
Lebron is also capable of defending the 5. A Crowder, Love, Lebron lineup doesn't require Love to defend the 5 against unfavorable matchups.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't know exactly how they'll play rotations, but there are plenty of frontcourt minutes for all 4 of those guys and sufficient positional flexibility to make it work.

It's harder to see how they manage their guard egos. Korver, Rose, Thomas, Smith, and Wade are not going to be happy if they aren't playing real minutes and there aren't enough minutes for all of them. That doesn't even consider finding minutes for Shumpert or Calderon. Ultimately, health may solve this problem for them. They are probably hoping to enter the playoffs with Korver, Thomas, Smith, and Wade all healthy and the other guys pushed to the bench.
I wouldn't classify Korver as a guard on this team, he's a wing along with Crowder especially now that Wade is there. When you look at the wings by eliminating Tristan/Love and Rose/Calderon/Isaiah........you have LeBron, Wade, Smith, Crowder, Korver, and Shumpert sharing minutes at the 2/3 with only LeBron and Crowder able to the 4 at all when Love isn't. There is going to be a minutes and an ego crunch if all those wings are ready to go which is going to be tough on Lue. When the rotation is shortened in the playoffs there are going to be 2 of those guys who will be seeing severely limited minutes.
 

mcpickl

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I'm guessing Rose will have to start off at 30 min+ as the others in your 7-man rotation can't defend the PG position. I'm interested in hearing from the pro-Crowder crew on what they feel his role will be off the bench and how many mph he'll get. He has to return to his Mavericks role of 16-20 mpg, right?
My guess is Jae is used like the Celtics use Smart. He won't start games, but he'll be the first guy off the bench and finish games.

Probably in the 26-28 minute range.
 

Kliq

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Westbrook will sign a five year, $205 million extension with OKC per Woj. Good for him.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Westbrook will sign a five year, $205 million extension with OKC per Woj. Good for him.
Nice — I was starting to wonder what was taking him so long. Dreams of his home in La-La Land are nice and all, but the guy turns 29 next month, has a game that's heavily reliant on athleticism, has had three surgeries on one knee, and recently announced he would miss some of this year's training camp with PRP injections in the other. Anecdotally, the aging curves of uber-athletic PGs whose game is built around taking it to the rack is not great (viz. Isiah Thomas, Derrick Rose, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, et al.) If Russ can't get his three-ball consistently in at least the mid-30% range, I suspect he could decline pretty steeply as he enters his thirties. Either way, you gotta take $200M when it's sitting there on the table.
 

johnmd20

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Nice — I was starting to wonder what was taking him so long. Dreams of his home in La-La Land are nice and all, but the guy turns 29 next month, has a game that's heavily reliant on athleticism, has had three surgeries on one knee, and recently announced he would miss some of this year's training camp with PRP injections in the other. Anecdotally, the aging curves of uber-athletic PGs whose game is built around taking it to the rack is not great (viz. Isiah Thomas, Derrick Rose, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, et al.) If Russ can't get his three-ball consistently in at least the mid-30% range, I suspect he could decline pretty steeply as he enters his thirties. Either way, you gotta take $200M when it's sitting there on the table.
Apparently he was waiting for Durant's birthday, which is awesome.
 

JakeRae

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My guess is Jae is used like the Celtics use Smart. He won't start games, but he'll be the first guy off the bench and finish games.

Probably in the 26-28 minute range.
Smart averaged 30.4 MPG last year, 2 minutes less than Jae did and top 5 on the team. Cleveland only had 3 players a year ago who averaged at least 30 MPG (Lebron, Kyrie, and Love).

I think odds are in favor of Jae Crowder, as the third best healthy player on their team at the beginning of the season, being given 30+ MPG. I don't know if they do that with a bench role of as a starter. It probably makes the most sense for him to come off the bench and to retain the starting front court of last year. That also fits the trend of teams starting games bigger and then transitioning to smaller lineups.

Once you get past Lebron, Love, Thomas, Jae, and Thompson, the Cavs don't really have much in the way of quality players. Frye is still useful, and is probably the last front court piece. Shumpert, Wade, and Smith are all useful, but not good, players. Calderon, Rose, and Felder are all awful. Jefferson is old but still not terrible. Korver really isn't very good anymore and shouldn't have much of a role. Green is terrible. Osman, Zivic and Tavares are all unknowns but unlikely to play of contribute.

Taking minutes from Jae so that players like Korver, Wade, Smith, or Shumpert can play more would be terrible roster management and I don't expect it, even from the Cavs.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Great news for Westbrook and OKC fans too. Too bad for Enes Kanter who thought it would be him, Russ and his Stache brother 4Life. It would be nice to see OKC keep George too but that is probably wishful thinking...
 

AMS25

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Great news for Westbrook and OKC fans too. Too bad for Enes Kanter who thought it would be him, Russ and his Stache brother 4Life. It would be nice to see OKC keep George too but that is probably wishful thinking...
Oh, George might stick around if the Thunder do well. Melo's not going anywhere; no one's going to pay him more than his guaranteed salary of $25 million for next year. The Thunder aren't as poor as people think. OKC makes a profit and has paid into revenue sharing for the last six years. Plus, it's not our money! If Clay Bennett and the other owners want to pony up for the repeater tax, that's their business.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Oh, George might stick around if the Thunder do well. Melo's not going anywhere; no one's going to pay him more than his guaranteed salary of $25 million for next year. The Thunder aren't as poor as people think. OKC makes a profit and has paid into revenue sharing for the last six years. Plus, it's not our money! If Clay Bennett and the other owners want to pony up for the repeater tax, that's their business.
Its not your money I am worried about. You guys are a fantastic fan-base and prior to that, the team had a loyal following in Seattle too. Unfortunately, Clay Bennett hasn't yet shown to either place that he's willing to do what it takes to compete at the highest level. Maybe its the start. In any event, Westbrook staying long-term is a great outcome.
 

AMS25

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Its not your money I am worried about. You guys are a fantastic fan-base and prior to that, the team had a loyal following in Seattle too. Unfortunately, Clay Bennett hasn't yet shown to either place that he's willing to do what it takes to compete at the highest level. Maybe its the start. In any event, Westbrook staying long-term is a great outcome.
The Thunder have paid the luxury tax three years in a row. This year, OKC will be in line to pay the repeater tax unless they dump salary at some point. I think that's a financial commitment.
 

Big John

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Saw the game. Ball was meh. The Lakers went with the kids and their inexperience showed. Meanwhile I thought the Minnesota Bulls looked like a playoff team.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Its not your money I am worried about. You guys are a fantastic fan-base and prior to that, the team had a loyal following in Seattle too. Unfortunately, Clay Bennett hasn't yet shown to either place that he's willing to do what it takes to compete at the highest level. Maybe its the start. In any event, Westbrook staying long-term is a great outcome.
If PG and Melo opt in, OKC has approximatley $140MM of guaranteed contracts and this website suggests the luxury tax bill could be north of $140MM itself.

As such, Thunder could be the first team to pay $300MM in salaries and tax. That's some kind of commitment.

BTW, NBA franchises can't be doing that poorly if OKC can spend $300MM without blinking.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I'm not so sure it's a lock that Melo opts in next year. He won't get an annual value near $25 million on the market, but if he can get, say 3/45, or even 2/35 it's still a net positive for him.

I also suspect he'll seriously consider joining LeBron and/or Paul somewhere if the opportunity presents itself and things go poorly in OKC.
 

AMS25

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I'm not so sure it's a lock that Melo opts in next year. He won't get an annual value near $25 million on the market, but if he can get, say 3/45, or even 2/35 it's still a net positive for him.

I also suspect he'll seriously consider joining LeBron and/or Paul somewhere if the opportunity presents itself and things go poorly in OKC.
Good point. I'm not sure how well Melo will mesh with the Thunder, and he seemed to be pretty eager to go to Houston.
 

nighthob

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If PG and Melo opt in, OKC has approximatley $140MM of guaranteed contracts and this website suggests the luxury tax bill could be north of $140MM itself.

As such, Thunder could be the first team to pay $300MM in salaries and tax. That's some kind of commitment.

BTW, NBA franchises can't be doing that poorly if OKC can spend $300MM without blinking.
The writer seems to be a bit confused. OKC's payroll is just shy of $142 million dollars, and about $19 million past the luxury tax line. Unless the NBA has a new double secret luxury tax bracket there's no way that the tax on $19 million works out to be $140 million. I'm pretty sure that the tax would be around $45 million or so.

Now if Melo opts in and George re-signs? Well, conceivably their big four could be making $120 million themselves, so their team payroll could move in to the $180 million+ range, and the luxury taxes are onerous past the $25 million mark (it increases by 50¢ for each increment of $5 million, so it's $5.25/dollar in the $25-$30 million range, $5.75/dollar in the $30-$35 million range, etc.).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The writer seems to be a bit confused. OKC's payroll is just shy of $142 million dollars, and about $19 million past the luxury tax line. Unless the NBA has a new double secret luxury tax bracket there's no way that the tax on $19 million works out to be $140 million. I'm pretty sure that the tax would be around $45 million or so.

Now if Melo opts in and George re-signs? Well, conceivably their big four could be making $120 million themselves, so their team payroll could move in to the $180 million+ range, and the luxury taxes are onerous past the $25 million mark (it increases by 50¢ for each increment of $5 million, so it's $5.25/dollar in the $25-$30 million range, $5.75/dollar in the $30-$35 million range, etc.).
Have no idea whether the math is right but the writer was talking about next year's salaries if Melo and PG opt in - not this year.
 

nighthob

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Have no idea whether the math is right but the writer was talking about next year's salaries if Melo and PG opt in - not this year.
They have nine players under contract making around $99 million. Assuming that Melo opts in and George re-signs they'll reach the $160 millionish range, which would the payroll spending in the $280-$290 million range inclusive of luxury taxes.
 

Imbricus

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Sacramento Kings power forward Harry Giles will be sidelined through at least January in an effort to "improve physical strength in his surgically repaired knees."
This maybe not surprising. Interesting though, that it apparently doesn't stem from an injury. In which case this would be a proactive move -- before he gets injured in action, really make sure he's ready for the rigors of NBA basketball. If so, that seems like a smart thing. The prognosis for Giles is not great to begin with, but if anything would improve it, a slow and progressive program to build knee strength might.
 

bowiac

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Replying from another thread:

When are you releasing over/unders? I'm interested in what the model says for the teams with major changes.
These picks are still a work in progress, and the final picks will build in preseason results, but here's the most recent set:

 

Imbricus

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And the rich get richer: Jordan Bell 5 for 5 from the field for the Warriors today, 2 steals, 1 block ... in 7 minutes. Kind of wish the Celts had snagged him instead of Semi, but we'll see. HRB says there were concerns about his foot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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4/84 for Gary Harris. Hope Smart isn’t looking for something like that.
If his shot is for real, not only will he be looking for something like that, he'll get it and be worth every penny.
I don't understand why a Smart extension is seen by many as a given. Any deal he signs now leaves a ton of money on the table.......and why would he do that? Sure he could be a rah-rah, Celtic-for-life guy........but he saw first hand what that got Isaiah. Unless a player on a rookie deal gets blown away by an extension offer like Harris did it isn't the prudent thing to do......and Ainge isn't going to blown him away with an offer.
 

luckiestman

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I don't understand why a Smart extension is seen by many as a given. Any deal he signs now leaves a ton of money on the table.......and why would he do that? Sure he could be a rah-rah, Celtic-for-life guy........but he saw first hand what that got Isaiah. Unless a player on a rookie deal gets blown away by an extension offer like Harris did it isn't the prudent thing to do......and Ainge isn't going to blown him away with an offer.

I'm not a capologist, so I might be wrong, but isn't he restricted if they don't do a deal soon. C's will probably match anything so I guess the question is what will the market pay for Smart. Teams are not going to be throwing money around like 2 off seasons ago, so what is expected market value?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not a capologist, so I might be wrong, but isn't he restricted if they don't do a deal soon. C's will probably match anything so I guess the question is what will the market pay for Smart. Teams are not going to be throwing money around like 2 off seasons ago, so what is expected market value?
If Smart is one of the top young UFA on the market would they really need to be "throwing money around" though? This past summer wasn't like two years ago yet we still saw Tim Hardaway Jr (4/$71m), Joe Ingles (4/$52m), Patty Mills (4/$50m), and Jrue Holiday (5/$125m) get deals that were eye opening.

Looking specifically at three levels of combo guards who were FA this summer you have Lowry signing for 3/$100m, George Hill (3/$57m), and Mills at (4/$50m). I expect Smart to be in Hill's and Hardaway's range if he's patient and waits for UFA.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Replying from another thread:



These picks are still a work in progress, and the final picks will build in preseason results, but here's the most recent set:

Might want to find a new formula that doesn't spit out a Kyrie/Hayward/Horford team in the east w 47 wins and the 6 seed. Just my two cents.
 

luckiestman

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If Smart is one of the top young UFA on the market would they really need to be "throwing money around" though? This past summer wasn't like two years ago yet we still saw Tim Hardaway Jr (4/$71m), Joe Ingles (4/$52m), Patty Mills (4/$50m), and Jrue Holiday (5/$125m) get deals that were eye opening.

Looking specifically at three levels of combo guards who were FA this summer you have Lowry signing for 3/$100m, George Hill (3/$57m), and Mills at (4/$50m). I expect Smart to be in Hill's and Hardaway's range if he's patient and waits for UFA.

Do you have a feel as to how the rest of the association views Smart? I listen to a couple of NBA podcasts but I only really follow the Cs.
 

southshoresoxfan

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If Smart is one of the top young UFA on the market would they really need to be "throwing money around" though? This past summer wasn't like two years ago yet we still saw Tim Hardaway Jr (4/$71m), Joe Ingles (4/$52m), Patty Mills (4/$50m), and Jrue Holiday (5/$125m) get deals that were eye opening.

Looking specifically at three levels of combo guards who were FA this summer you have Lowry signing for 3/$100m, George Hill (3/$57m), and Mills at (4/$50m). I expect Smart to be in Hill's and Hardaway's range if he's patient and waits for UFA.
So you think Marcus will play a one year QO type offer and then hit UFA? I don't see that being likely. 4/48 to 4/60 will likely be his range. Sets him up to be a UFA at 27
 

luckiestman

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So you think Marcus will play a one year QO type offer and then hit UFA? I don't see that being likely. 4/48 to 4/60 will likely be his range. Sets him up to be a UFA at 27

I think, and like I said above I don't know cap stuff that well, that HRB is saying some other team might offer Smart a near max and the question is if the Cs will match that.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Hmm... Nets crushing all comers in preseason? Yeah, it's been three games, two of them against the sorry Knicks, but they've won them by an average of 20.3 points. Lin and Russell seem to be meshing surprisingly well (F*** Kenyon Martin, by the way), and their stable of young, athletic wings who can shoot, defend, force turnovers, and get out and run all day could give teams occasional problems. They seem to love Atkinson and be gaining confidence.

I'll LMFAO at the Cavs if they make a run at a low playoff seed...