Time for a rebuild?

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
I don't know if you meant that as sarcasm, or what, but in actuality it does not matter what player do after your team trades them. All that matters is how valuable they are perceived by potential trade partners. And in this case, Moncada was ranked as the 5th best prospect in baseball and Kopech, the 67th. ANd not only did the Red Sox pick up more salary with Sale, they still had to finish paying off Moncada's signing bonus.. Given all the money going out along with two ranked prospects and two other players, I'm wondering whether they could not have made a better trade.

Alternatively, we could just say that the minor league prospect ranking are completely worthless and never, ever bring them up on this board again.

Huh, and here I had been wondering when crazybird would show up again.

Look, Moncada was a stud prospect but it's hard to argue with DDski choosing either Devers or Benintendi over him, after the MLB season each of them has had.

And It's not certainly not time for a rebuild. It's time to make the most of the next two 2-3 years. After the 2019 season, we can start talking about rebuilds.

RED SOX 40-MAN ROSTER:
2023 - Devers, Maddox, Johnson, Lin, Velazquez, Travis, Taylor, Owens
2022 - Price, Benintendi, Marrero, Scott, Swihart, Hernandez (DL)
2021 - Pedroia, Rodriguez, Barnes, Hembree, Elias
2020 - Betts, Bradley, Vazquez, Smith, Leon, Workman, Wright (DL)
2019 - Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, Holt, Thornburg (DL), Rutledge (DL)
2018 - Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Ramirez, Kelly, Ross (DL)
2017 - Nunez (DL), Fister, Moreland, Reed, Young, Davis, Abad, Boyer

There are eight 40-man slots opening up in November, but five 60-day DL players who might be added back onto the roster. Most of them are role-players.

However, the MLB club's average-hitting 1B (Moreland - 99 OPS+) is among them, and this team won 93 games with an offense devoid of power. 1B is the obvious place to upgrade to bring in some thunder. Next is Hanley's 95 OPS+ out of the DH, since dead-average offense is unacceptable production for a full-time DH. Maybe the team can gamble that he bounces back, but maybe DH needs an offseason upgrade.

The other corners -- 3B, LF, and RF -- are all manned by up-and-coming young players. Betts was the best overall player on the team and was only 24 this season, and the other two are terrific-looking rookies. You could potentially upgrade at either 3B or LF, but it's easy to project overall offensive improvement from both Benintendi and Devers, and they were average or better offensive players already in 2017.

Only after deciding what to do about those two glaring problems - 1B and DH - should the team start thinking about which premium defensive position with roughly-average offense could stand an upgrade: Vazquez (93 OPS+), Pedroia (101), Bogaerts (95), or Bradley (89). These are tougher decisions, because they have to figure out how much defensive value is lost in relation to how much offense gain might be projected. For example, Bradley's 89 OPS+ was below average but didn't prevent him from becoming the 2nd-most valuable two-way player on the 2017 team by B-Ref (2.8 WAR), or the 3rd-most by Fangraphs (2.3).

Still, with the Red Sox starting pitching locked-in until 2019-20 at the earliest, this is no time to panic. It's time to fix the lack of power by filling big-power roles with actual power bats.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
That's the main reason I am on the Freddie Freeman train.

If you could convince Votto to waive the no-trade, and he could keep duplicating his 2017, then he'd be the perfect option.
Freeman is like a top 5, if not better hitter in his prime (.348/.456/.745 in the first half before his broken bone in his wrist injury) signed to an excellent long term contract.

He's a cornerstone, and they think they are contending sooner rather than later.

There is absolutely no chance he gets moved. If he's even theoretically available they are not in a position to trump offers from teams with actual blue chippers. And if they subtract equivalent talent from their current roster, then what's the point? The Braves aren't a JBJ and Ed-Ro away from winning the world series anyhow - and that's not even close to enough either.

He's also 14th on Dave Cameron's trade value series.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-11-to-20/
 
Last edited:

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
The idea that a team looking to deal a player on a market value contact shouldn't expect a big return is a long standing SoSH tradition but the real market doesn't work that way.

They will get way more than JBJ straight up.
Could you offer an example of a time this SoSH tradition hasn’t held?

I can think of the Punto trade, which is generally seen as an outlier.
I was actually thinking.... Joey Votto. The Reds are going nowhere fast. Votto is amazing, but he's making a lot of money (not a CRAZY amount per year in today's market - $25m/yr - but still, a lot of money) over a LONG period of time - he's still signed through 2023 - that's another 6 seasons, until he's 39. I know the Reds signed him to that huge contract, but part of why they did was to secure his prime years, knowing that he'll not likely be worth that money the last couple of years. Well, Votto signed that contract in April of 2012. They got his 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 years out of him so far (ages 28-33). Those were his prime years. I don't know if they'd mind getting out from under the last six years of his contract, given that they'd be his age 34-39 years.

For the Sox, well, the hope would be that his prime would actually extend til age 36, and then his decline would take him from elite to merely pretty good. He'd be expensive for "pretty good", but still. A big market team like Boston...this risk is more palatable than it might be for the Reds.

So I don't know what it would take to pry Votto from the Reds. But if we're talking Freddie Freeman ($21-22 million per year through 2021), we may as well talk about Joey Votto, who is older, more expensive, but....much better as well.

But if we're talking Freeman, maybe...just maybe... The Sox could swing a deal whereby they trade Bradley for Freeman and Kemp. I'm not really a Kemp fan, and he's expensive, and he's terrible defensively. But it takes two huge contracts off the Braves' hands and gives the Sox power in both LF (Benny to CF) and 1b. As much as I mocked Bradley for Stanton, the reason I throw THIS one out there is because Kemp over the last four years has accumulated a whopping 0.3 bWAR, all at the nice low price of nearly $87 million. If the Braves could dump that contract, maybe they'd be willing to make this kind of trade.

Last 4 seasons Kemp: 102 hr, 361 rbi, ops+ of 140, 109, 113, 103. Maybe his awful defense would be camouflaged some by LF at Fenway.

C Vazquez
1b Freeman
2b Pedroia
3b Devers
SS Bogaerts
LF Kemp
CF Benintendi
RF Betts
DH Hanley

I don't like it as much as adding Martinez/Abreu, but it's an alternative. Expensive, absolutely, but that's one way they may be able to

If you’re going to take on that much salary, why not just sign JD Martinez?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Freeman is like a top 5, if not better hitter in his prime (.348/.456/.745 in the first half before his broken bone in his wrist injury) signed to an excellent long term contract.

He's a cornerstone, and they think they are contending sooner rather than later.

There is absolutely no chance he gets moved. If he's even theoretically available they are not in a position to trump offers from teams with actual blue chippers. And if they subtract equivalent talent from their current roster, then what's the point? The Braves aren't a JBJ and Ed-Ro away from winning the world series anyhow - and that's not even close to enough either.

He's also 14th on Dave Cameron's trade value series.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-11-to-20/
Benintendi is #26 on that list, which isn’t really that far from #14. I’m actually shocked to see JBJ is still on this list at #46. I thought he’d drop off, for sure.

Like I said initially, the Sox acquiring Freeman would probably hurt. But offering a package including both Beni and EdRo — two young players with very high upside, and who are MLB proven yet under club control for 4-5 years each — isn’t as far out of the woods as you might think.

If the Sox pick up Freeman’s contract in full, and Atlanta turns that into Beni and EdRo, sign Mike Moustakas for 3B, and keep Mike Adams at 1B, they really haven’t changed their optimistic future that much, at least on paper. It seems even brighter to me, actually; I think EdRo would be terrific in the NL where he would likely be lifted for a PH somewhere around inning 5-6 anyway.

But like I said, trades are all total speculation. Which makes it a lot harder to see what works from outside the FO, way more so than just signing the best FA bat. Still, I hope DDski is taking the tack of identifying what players actually fill the team’s existing holes this offseason, rather than trying to bolt-on the easiest options as a quick fix.

And before anyone asks: yes, I am absolutely terrified he will trade for Miguel Cabrera again.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Benintendi is #26 on that list, which isn’t really that far from #14. I’m actually shocked to see JBJ is still on this list at #46. I thought he’d drop off, for sure.
That article is dated 7/10, and written at a time JBJ was hitting .280/.363/.490 on the season.

Obviously the outlook would probably look different with a recent day update.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Could you offer an example of a time this SoSH tradition hasn’t held?

I can think of the Punto trade, which is generally seen as an outlier.
Actually, I'd say the Punto trade is a nice example of how the market actually works. The Dodgers wanted AGon and his market rate deal. They had to pay two solid (though not great) pitching prospects and take on the albatross of Carl Crawford's contract while also eating the deal of the aging and declining Josh Beckett.

If you want a more recent and local example, there were plenty of people complaining that Craig Kimbrel shouldn't have cost nearly as much as he did because he was on a market rate deal. Actual cost was fairly significant, though.

I mean, you can find exceptions. No market is static or governed by unassailable and unyielding rules. Look at JD Martinez moving to Arizona for virtually nothing. Of course, the difference between a half season of Martinez and four years of Freeman is enormous.

Or going back a decade, Manny heading to LA in a three team deal. The Pirates gave up Jason Bay, while the Dodgers gave up Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris. LaRoche was basically still a prospect coming off a couple of impressive seasons in AA and AAA, and Morris was a 1st round pick still in the low minors. Manny was not only on a market rate deal, but had clearly worn out his welcome in Boston and even then, he wasn't given away.

The real world market does not provide many examples of teams who are content to simply dump a player on a market rate deal when they are still productive. Salary dumps tend to be players who are declining already.

Freeman is certainly not an example of that. Neither is Votto, to be frank. I think Votto is more likely to be traded, but he still won't be cheap. And at least Buzzkill seems to be in agreement that if Freeman moved, it would be for a lot of talent.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
I think Price can honestly be salvaged. He’s a really good teammate by all accounts. Hanley needs to go. He’s just been an all and all bust since getting here other than the stretch run last year. If his option vests than the team is in trouble.

They also need a true power bat. Not sure if they have enough pieces for Stanton but that’s the player or type of player they need to acquire. It’s painfully obvious.
 

smallball

New Member
May 11, 2016
87
Kailua, HI
Is anyone currently in the organization capable of putting up 30 hr (like Travis Shaw was) before emptying the bank/farm system for a marquis name? Then maybe you get a complimentary masher to stack the middle of line-up, again, rather than squandering $ .
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
In Sale's instance, you must mean the first 85% of the season because ever since he became a starter in 2012 he has pitched poorly in the latter part of the season.

Apr 9 to Aug 12, 2012/Aug 17 to Sep 29, 2012
14-3, 2.60 ERA / 3-5, 4.22 ERA

Aug 23 to Sep 27, 2013
9-11, 2.78 ERA / 2-3, 4.04 ERA

Mar 31 to Jul 26, 2014/Aug 1 to Sep 24, 2014
10-1, 1.88 ERA / 2-3, 2.67 ERA

Apr 12 to Aug 21, 2015/Aug 26 to Oct 2, 2015
12-7, 3.34 ERA / 1-4, 3.65 ERA

Apr 4 to Jul 2, 2016/Jul 8 to Oct 2, 2016
14-2, 2.57 ERA / 3-4, 3.91 ERA

Apr 5 to Aug 8, 2017/Aug 13 to Sep 26, 2017
14-4, 2.72 ERA / 3-4, 3.91 ERA
-------------------------------------------
Before: 73-28, 2.72 ERA / After: 14-27, 3.69 ERA

As for Price, he has been 2-8 in post-season play with both wins coming in relief.

If I were in the position where I was going to spend huge amounts of money on a free agent starter or trade some of my highly regarded prospects for a starter, I might take a look at how they do at the en of seasons.
I am really glad to hear this point continue to come up. The Sox need to stop trading for - or signing - aces who can't finish strong or contribute in the playoffs.

Now that the Sox have not one but two such aces, what can the coaches and conditioning gurus do to make them stronger or otherwise give them better stamina so they can pitch like the guy we used to have - Jon Lester. He pitched OK in the postseason... and still going strong.

That's my two cents on the rebuild.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I am really glad to hear this point continue to come up. The Sox need to stop trading for - or signing - aces who can't finish strong or contribute in the playoffs.

Now that the Sox have not one but two such aces, what can the coaches and conditioning gurus do to make them stronger or otherwise give them better stamina so they can pitch like the guy we used to have - Jon Lester He pitched OK in the postseason... and still going strong.

That's my two cents on the rebuild.
So the Sox should cancel their plans to trade for Kershaw?
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Benintendi is #26 on that list, which isn’t really that far from #14. I’m actually shocked to see JBJ is still on this list at #46. I thought he’d drop off, for sure.

Like I said initially, the Sox acquiring Freeman would probably hurt. But offering a package including both Beni and EdRo — two young players with very high upside, and who are MLB proven yet under club control for 4-5 years each — isn’t as far out of the woods as you might think.
But that still doesn't address why the Braves would ever do that. EdRo is hardly a cornerstone pitcher.
I can't imagine they would be targeting a #3, when Freeman is one of the few guys who could get an ace.
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
So the Sox should cancel their plans to trade for Kershaw?
Absolutely.

Edit: we both know it's a waste of resources, especially with the majority of the talk on this board about the need for a middle of the order bat.
Starting pitching was great for the Sox until about 10 September.

Edit2: Sorry BMHH, my sarcasm meter was broken. Or maybe is still broken. Lol.
 
Last edited:

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,247
I am really glad to hear this point continue to come up. The Sox need to stop trading for - or signing - aces who can't finish strong or contribute in the playoffs.

Now that the Sox have not one but two such aces, what can the coaches and conditioning gurus do to make them stronger or otherwise give them better stamina so they can pitch like the guy we used to have - Jon Lester. He pitched OK in the postseason... and still going strong.

That's my two cents on the rebuild.
I hate that this type of perception will continue until someone breaks through.

they really could use a solid win tomorrow just so the kids have a taste of playoff success. another sweep would be immensely frustrating I imagine on everyone
 

jtn46

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 10, 2004
9,757
Norwalk, CT
I am really glad to hear this point continue to come up. The Sox need to stop trading for - or signing - aces who can't finish strong or contribute in the playoffs.

Now that the Sox have not one but two such aces, what can the coaches and conditioning gurus do to make them stronger or otherwise give them better stamina so they can pitch like the guy we used to have - Jon Lester. He pitched OK in the postseason... and still going strong.

That's my two cents on the rebuild.
Chris Sale has 1 career postseason start.
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
Chris Sale has 1 career postseason start.
I am aware of that, but I was also referring to his recent tendency to fade down the stretch, which was covered in this thread just above my post.

I think all of us thought that Sale was a shoo in for the CYA in late August, but my guess is he will finish a distant 2nd to Kluber, and might even get pipped by Severino due to fading down the stretch.

As for David Price, I covered his postseason results in this post back in July. http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?posts/2352781/

My point is not that these two are bad pitchers because empirically they are both perennial CYA contenders, but that the Sox management should have as an offseason priority the goal of identifying ways to help them to not fade down the stretch, and / or in the postseason.

Edited for clarity.
 
Last edited:

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
But that still doesn't address why the Braves would ever do that. EdRo is hardly a cornerstone pitcher.
I can't imagine they would be targeting a #3, when Freeman is one of the few guys who could get an ace.
That’s why it’s so much harder to discuss trades than free agents.

It’s impossible to get inside the headspace of the Braves FO, but it’s not that tough to see how DDski could pitch the proposed trade return as a #2/3 LH bat and #1/2 LH starter who will be competitive now but will really be ready to blossom just when the Nationals’ window is closing.

Maybe the third piece of the package has to be Groome. Or, maybe DDski calls on a full moon. Or, maybe it’s going to take Devers and Beni and EdRo, so the overall price is too high and the team has to move on.

Regardless, the process of team-building isn’t as simple as finding the biggest bat in FA and then paying the most. That’s how a team ends up with an unproductive roster full of unmoveable contracts. Every time.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,344
Anyone advocating for Hanley to go back to first base in this "rebuild" thread should realize that it's not happening, and really shouldn't even happen.
Sox are pretty barren in the farm and all their ML tradeable assets, other than Betts (and he's going nowhere), values are way down (and even Betts is compared to last season when discussion of a Betts for Trout straight up deal wouldn't have been laughed at). The only players with value enough to bring someone back to improve the club are Benintendi, Devers and Vazquez and those are the next group we're building around.
JBJ and X both had pretty bad seasons so their trade value is pretty small compared to what their actual value (potential relative to cost) is to the Sox. I don't see any easy fixes at the Sox's one spot (1B) where we'll need to address via free agency. I'm not totally sold on Devers as a long term solution at 3rd base but I am sold on his offensive potential. I wonder if the Sox should again look for a one year deal from a Carlos Gonzalez type to learn 1B/4th OF and reestablish his value as a middle of the order bat. That'll give Devers a full season at 3rd. Meanwhile, on the farm Chavis should start playing more 2nd base to see if he can supplant Pedroia there, along with seeing if he could push Devers across the diamond to 1B in the long term... or if the team should make a push for Machado in '18
 
Last edited:

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Anyone advocating for Hanley to go back to first base in this "rebuild" thread should realize that it's not happening, and really shouldn't even happen.
As opposed to what else that is being mentioned though? The Freeman deal that isn't going to happen? Paying out the nose for the back end of Votto's career? Potentially signing Hosmer to be our franchise guy for the next half decade+?

I was probably the biggest Hanley to full time DH supporter last off-season, which in spite of all the wishful min/max platoon thinking and the latter emerging "he can't play there to start the season" stuff was obviously going to be the case the moment we signed Moreland. The surrounding thought process being that we were essentially paying him for the bat, and that the move gave him a better chance to stay both healthy/focused.

While it's obviously impossible to prove it either way, in hindsight that was probably a pretty terrible idea imo. Especially when we were already working off one successful rebound. Some guys have the mentality to DH full time without falling into a mail-it-in rut, some don't and will end up doing exactly that if/when presented the opportunity. Looking at everything as a whole, it's also really hard for me to go back atm and re-read those "I prefer to DH" comments as anything other then "I"m fine just showing up, taking some at bats, and making sure my option vests".

Given that it increases the overall flexibility in what upgrade options we can explore I just fail to see the real downside in taking an all or nothing approach there at this point. He's going to be an everyday player either way, and sending him home this winter with the expectation that he won't simply be walking up to the plate 4 times a game to get that option vested certainly can't hurt. If it works out and he stays healthy in the process...great. If it doesn't and/or if he ends up getting hurt and missing time....Well let's be honest, that is what most people are going to spend the year not-so-secretly rooting for anyway and it's not like the replacement bar is set all that high atm either.
 

Clears Cleaver

Lil' Bill
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
11,370
This is the thing...there is literally nothing they can do that will elevate them above Houston, Cleveland or NYY. The core (C, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, SP1, SP2, Closer) isn't good enough, they don't have the money to upgrade two-three spots in the rotation, 2B, 1B, DH and 2-3 spots in the bullpen. Plus, the farm system is bad right now becasue the prospects either elevated or were traded.

Again, how many of the Red Sox players would see the field for those three teams ahead of them? Betts, Sale, Kimbrel....anyone else?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
This is the thing...there is literally nothing they can do that will elevate them above Houston, Cleveland or NYY. The core (C, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, SP1, SP2, Closer) isn't good enough, they don't have the money to upgrade two-three spots in the rotation, 2B, 1B, DH and 2-3 spots in the bullpen. Plus, the farm system is bad right now becasue the prospects either elevated or were traded.

Again, how many of the Red Sox players would see the field for those three teams ahead of them? Betts, Sale, Kimbrel....anyone else?
This is preposterous.

The Red Sox spent almost all season with an injured 2B (Pedroia), SP#2 (Price), SP#5 (Wright), RP #2 (Thornburg), RP #3 (Smith), and RP #5 (Ross).

They got woeful underperformance from SP#3 (Porcello), DH (Ramirez), 1B (Moreland), SS (Bogaerts), and CF (Bradley).

Their likely-mediocre bat, good-glove guys at C (Vazquez, Leon) were mostly mediocre bat, good glove guys but Vazquez showed a ton more with the bat than I thought him capable of, offensively.

Basically only Mookie, Vazquez, Sale, Kelly, and Kimbrel produced this season, and the Sox still won the AL East. It’s not doom and gloom.
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
I am aware of that, but I was also referring to his recent tendency to fade down the stretch, which was covered in this thread just above my post.

I think all of us thought that Sale was a shoo in for the CYA in late August, but my guess is he will finish a distant 2nd to Kluber, and might even get pipped by Severino due to fading down the stretch.

As for David Price, I covered his postseason results in this post back in July. http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?posts/2352781/

My point is not that these two are bad pitchers because empirically they are both perennial CYA contenders, but that the Sox management should have as an offseason priority the goal of identifying ways to help them to not fade down the stretch, and / or in the postseason.

Edited for clarity.
Price's pitching numbers in the postseason are crazy. Dominant in relief, and horrendous as a starter. Weird.
Price since returning from the DL:

7 appearances, 14.1 IP / 8 H / 0 R / 3 BB / 18 K

In the highest-lev situations imaginable. That'll do, David.
Price still throwing gas at the end.

Nice job, David.

Edit: and it looked like he was beefing at the ump while leaving. Lol.
Very very happy to be proven wrong on David Price - at least for one game. Tremendous performance.

Now we need to see some Sale rebounding as well. Praying this series lasts long enough for that to become a possibility.
 

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,879
Twin Bridges, Mt.
Thanks for letting us know. I hope after Chris Sale's next start you can update us on whether he was worth the trade.
If, as PaulM envisioned, this place is an online version of a bunch of fans sitting around at the corner bar talking Red Sox, I dare say you just threw a drink in Streeter’s face.
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
If, as PaulM envisioned, this place is an online version of a bunch of fans sitting around at the corner bar talking Red Sox, I dare say you just threw a drink in Streeter’s face.
Yep, and by the taste of it, it was one Icebergs' Signature Spring Drinks. Tragic waste.

Like with every drink I have had thrown in my face, I must have said something to deserve it.
 

soxeast

New Member
Aug 12, 2017
206
One of the best ways to help Sale (and Price) from fading in 2nd half is to get some bats. BIG BATS. This would reduce his inning pitched/pitches. Getting a a 1st and possibly a 2nd big bat can be done by trading Porcello for prospects - prospects that Miami may want. Then outbid everyone for JD Martinez.

Then trade prospects for Bour. Miami doesn't expect to win next year, do they? Multiple prospects for Bour and sign JD Mart for whatever it takes to get him.

There is never a way to guarantee playoff success but this should keep the sox dangerous at least to 2019 and maybe further. The bats might be able to protect Sale and Price and Pomeranz. Just need Wright to get healthy too.

Freeman is a pipe dream and a Stanton trade is on a road to nowhere.
 
Last edited:

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
My point is not that these two are bad pitchers because empirically they are both perennial CYA contenders, but that the Sox management should have as an offseason priority the goal of identifying ways to help them to not fade down the stretch, and / or in the postseason.
I’d say the org should aim to not have a starter led the league in IP for once.
 

m0ckduck

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
1,714
This is preposterous.

The Red Sox spent almost all season with an injured 2B (Pedroia), SP#2 (Price), SP#5 (Wright), RP #2 (Thornburg), RP #3 (Smith), and RP #5 (Ross).

They got woeful underperformance from SP#3 (Porcello), DH (Ramirez), 1B (Moreland), SS (Bogaerts), and CF (Bradley).

Their likely-mediocre bat, good-glove guys at C (Vazquez, Leon) were mostly mediocre bat, good glove guys but Vazquez showed a ton more with the bat than I thought him capable of, offensively.

Basically only Mookie, Vazquez, Sale, Kelly, and Kimbrel produced this season, and the Sox still won the AL East. It’s not doom and gloom.
This is where I'm at-- it's random variance in search of a narrative.

If the 2016 core of Betts-Bradley-Bogaerts had logged a combined 18.5 bWar again this year instead of the 11.4 they regressed to as a group this year, there wouldn't be this perception that we're structurally behind other AL teams in terms of talent. Now, regress they did... and so the outlook is that much dimmer moving forward... but there's still much more variance than track record with the young ML talent on this team (above 3 + Benintendi, Devers), and it's still the most likely source of future improvement. The rest of the roster is just the usual highly-paid mixed-bag of contributors and underachievers that free-agent-eligible talent constitutes in the current era of baseball. A lucky convergence of health and career years can vault us into the WS (a la 2013); an unlucky distribution of the same has us looking like fringe playoff contenders, as is the case this year. All the trade proposals here are just shuffling strength from one area of the ML roster to another— the team is unlikely to decisively "win" a three-guys-for-Stanton-and-his-contract trade imo unless they do so by sheer luck.
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,208
Bangkok
It would a lot easier if we didn’t have a lot of dead money. The Panda, Castillo, Craig and Hanley deals were so crap. We struck out on all those deals.

We should sign a replacement DH otherwise we’re stuck with Hanley for one more year.
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,441
Canton, MA
It would a lot easier if we didn’t have a lot of dead money. The Panda, Castillo, Craig and Hanley deals were so crap. We struck out on all those deals.

We should sign a replacement DH otherwise we’re stuck with Hanley for one more year.
Hanley also needs to sit for at least 40 games next year or his 2019 option will likely be triggered (497 more PA).
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,369
This is preposterous.

The Red Sox spent almost all season with an injured 2B (Pedroia), SP#2 (Price), SP#5 (Wright), RP #2 (Thornburg), RP #3 (Smith), and RP #5 (Ross).

They got woeful underperformance from SP#3 (Porcello), DH (Ramirez), 1B (Moreland), SS (Bogaerts), and CF (Bradley).

Their likely-mediocre bat, good-glove guys at C (Vazquez, Leon) were mostly mediocre bat, good glove guys but Vazquez showed a ton more with the bat than I thought him capable of, offensively.

Basically only Mookie, Vazquez, Sale, Kelly, and Kimbrel produced this season, and the Sox still won the AL East. It’s not doom and gloom.
I thought Benintendi produced. The kid had a terrific rookie season in just about every way imaginable.

Doesn't change your larger point but I think you left him off the list.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
More to the regression points. Do people really think that it's more likely Judge is a 50 HR guy than Betts is a .300 hitter? If so, why? Every team has players regressing in both directions, every year. But you can't run a team looking soly at one year's results. It's too shortsighted.

I'm pretty sure the team still believes in the Killer Bs - enough not to blow things up. They'll expect some positive regression from the injured guys and hedge as much as reasonably possible against future injury.

The real question imo is what the budget will be. Will they spend above the LT? If so, then a guy like JD Martinez is in play. If not, they'll look for a better veteran bat than Young (maybe they sell Nunez on a Zobrist role) and explore Moreland options, although they might just bring him back and hope his toes stay healthy!
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2016
1,004
Hanover, PA
Is anyone currently in the organization capable of putting up 30 hr (like Travis Shaw was) before emptying the bank/farm system for a marquis name? Then maybe you get a complimentary masher to stack the middle of line-up, again, rather than squandering $ .
Seriously? Betts hit 31 just last year, and Devers hit 10 in 58 games as a 20 year old. We have 3 kids under 24 who have 30 HR potential. This thread is ridiculous. Give me an upgrade over Moreland for next season and I like our chances just as much as I would the Astros, Indians, and Yankees.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
More to the regression points. Do people really think that it's more likely Judge is a 50 HR guy than Betts is a .300 hitter? If so, why? Every team has players regressing in both directions, every year. But you can't run a team looking soly at one year's results. It's too shortsighted.

I'm pretty sure the team still believes in the Killer Bs - enough not to blow things up. They'll expect some positive regression from the injured guys and hedge as much as reasonably possible against future injury.

The real question imo is what the budget will be. Will they spend above the LT? If so, then a guy like JD Martinez is in play. If not, they'll look for a better veteran bat than Young (maybe they sell Nunez on a Zobrist role) and explore Moreland options, although they might just bring him back and hope his toes stay healthy!
True but you can look at other factors to indicate future success such as minor league success/advanced metrics from short times in the majors and physical makeup. When dealing with young players you don't really have a ton to go off of except the word of your scouts. The knock on Judge was always his ability to hit for contact. He doesn't profile to be a .300 hitter however he's a monster so he's going to get more going power wise than someone say Pedroia's size. So he's probably a 35-40 homer guy most years like Stanton who I think is the absolute best case scenario for Judge if everything breaks right.

I think this year was avoid the repeater tax no matter what. In the offseason DD will have a blank check again and that could in theory be scary but it could also put the Sox over the top. I could certainly see JD Martinez being the main target or a trade for Stanton.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,095
Average MLB DH had an OPS of 0.737 this past season, along with an average of 1 HR per 26.3 plate appearances. Hanley had a 0.750 OPS and a HR once per 24 plate appearances. So, while we all wish Hanley's contract would magically disappear next season, it should be pointed out that Hanley's performance as DH was not as big of a problem as it's being made out to be here.

I wouldn't count on Hanley's option not vesting. Assuming he's healthy and playing well in 2018, the Sox are not going to cut short his at bats just to avoid the vesting limit. For one, the Players Association would likely file a grievance. For another, it would make the Sox look far less attractive to future free agents considering similar vesting options.

It's probably also time to remind folks leading the "fire Dombrowski" bandwagon that DD had nothing to do with the Hanley/Sandoval/Craig/Castillo contracts (the last 3 are far, far worse than the Hanley deal, btw). And the Sox were determined to stay under the luxury tax threshold this season for perfectly valid reasons given the terms of the new CBA.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
I wouldn't count on Hanley's option not vesting. Assuming he's healthy and playing well in 2018, the Sox are not going to cut short his at bats just to avoid the vesting limit. For one, the Players Association would likely file a grievance. For another, it would make the Sox look far less attractive to future free agents considering similar vesting options.
I'm not sure you'd face a grievance for only giving 400 PA to your aging positionless league-average hitter.

If he bounces back to a .900 OPS, maybe you would. But if he has that kind of season, you enjoy the performance without caring whether his option vests.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
Looking at Sam Travis's numbers, he is a non-prospect now, right? We shouldn't include him in our future 1B plans, no?

Eric Hosmer seems like Mitch Moreland who just had a career year at age 27. I dont think signing him to some huge deal is the best choice. I would feel better at rolling the dice on any of the other older 1B FAs, Alonso, Morrison, Duda. But yea, none of those options are particularly inspiring either
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Seriously? Betts hit 31 just last year, and Devers hit 10 in 58 games as a 20 year old. We have 3 kids under 24 who have 30 HR potential. This thread is ridiculous. Give me an upgrade over Moreland for next season and I like our chances just as much as I would the Astros, Indians, and Yankees.
Betts hitting 31 wasn't setting his new baseline, though. It's very likely going to be his career high, actually. His average expected home run percentage was just 41.4% in 2016. Only 1 of his home runs was not tracked by Statcast that year, so that percentage is likely pretty accurate.

That article has this graphic in it:



Those are Mookie's 17 Fenway home runs laid out over Kaufman, which is a relatively neutral stadium. Mookie's rate was 30th lowest in the majors in 2016.

He was due for some heavy regression in 2017 and that happened. That's not to say his overall performance at the plate this year is his true talent level, but the idea that Mookie is or can be a perennial 30 HR threat is... well... optimistic to say the least.

Edit: I think his 2015 season is probably a pretty good guess at what his true talent level probably looks like, and that's still a really good player.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2016
1,004
Hanover, PA
Betts hitting 31 wasn't setting his new baseline, though. It's very likely going to be his career high, actually. His average expected home run percentage was just 41.4% in 2016. Only 1 of his home runs was not tracked by Statcast that year, so that percentage is likely pretty accurate.

That article has this graphic in it:



Those are Mookie's 17 Fenway home runs laid out over Kaufman, which is a relatively neutral stadium. Mookie's rate was 30th lowest in the majors in 2016.

He was due for some heavy regression in 2017 and that happened. That's not to say his overall performance at the plate this year is his true talent level, but the idea that Mookie is or can be a perennial 30 HR threat is... well... optimistic to say the least.

Edit: I think his 2015 season is probably a pretty good guess at what his true talent level probably looks like, and that's still a really good player.
My post was in response to a question about whether anyone in the lineup was capable of hitting 30 HR's. Just one season after Mookie hit 31. An overreaction in a thread full of them.

Expecting Mookie to hit 25-30 HR's per year is not asking a lot giving his brief career so far, as well as his age and skills. I think I agree with most in that this team needs more power, but we definitely have a few players capable of hitting HR's.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
My post was in response to a question about whether anyone in the lineup was capable of hitting 30 HR's. Just one season after Mookie hit 31. An overreaction in a thread full of them.

Expecting Mookie to hit 25-30 HR's per year is not asking a lot giving his brief career so far, as well as his age and skills. I think I agree with most in that this team needs more power, but we definitely have a few players capable of hitting HR's.
I mean, you can believe that if you want, but the data suggest that Mookie isn't a 30 HR guy. 20 HR? Sure. That seems like a pretty good bet most years. But Mookie had a lot of home run luck in 2016. The results likely aren't predictive.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
I thought Benintendi produced. The kid had a terrific rookie season in just about every way imaginable.

Doesn't change your larger point but I think you left him off the list.
He was offensively average, from a player considered a real ROY candidate.

Like Devers, Beni was good but not great. Both of them have tremendous room to improve as well.

But basically, I left them both off the analysis because they’re true rookies.
 

Bigpupp

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 8, 2008
2,390
New Mexico
Betts hitting 31 wasn't setting his new baseline, though. It's very likely going to be his career high, actually. His average expected home run percentage was just 41.4% in 2016. Only 1 of his home runs was not tracked by Statcast that year, so that percentage is likely pretty accurate.

That article has this graphic in it:



Those are Mookie's 17 Fenway home runs laid out over Kaufman, which is a relatively neutral stadium. Mookie's rate was 30th lowest in the majors in 2016.

He was due for some heavy regression in 2017 and that happened. That's not to say his overall performance at the plate this year is his true talent level, but the idea that Mookie is or can be a perennial 30 HR threat is... well... optimistic to say the least.

Edit: I think his 2015 season is probably a pretty good guess at what his true talent level probably looks like, and that's still a really good player.
The article says those dots are where the ball landed - not projected distance. Considering Betts mostly hits line drives - those hits probably would have remained homers in Kauffman, if there weren't a big wall there to stop them.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
The article says those dots are where the ball landed - not projected distance. Considering Betts mostly hits line drives - those hits probably would have remained homers in Kauffman, if there weren't a big wall there to stop them.
His percentage is still 41.4%. He got really lucky on home run results.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
That’s our season, but I’m feeling good about a 2018 edition. They showed a lot of fight against a deeper team.

We need another middle of the order bat to lengthen the lineup, and a healthy Price to deepen the rotation, but I’m waiting til next year with optimism.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
ERA of Red Sox starters this 4-game series -- 12.71. Last year against Cleveland, it was over 9.

You cannot win playoff series that way.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,144
ERA of Red Sox starters this 4-game series -- 12.71. Last year against Cleveland, it was over 9.

You cannot win playoff series that way.
When the bats go quiet, and the pitching sucks - you’re toast.

Lost to a great team. No shame in it.