Is Bryce Harper finished?

loshjott

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Holy shit that was ugly. Hope he's OK, but damn that didn't look good... I've never seen someone fall like that. The Nats are gonna fire someone for choosing to play him tonight after this long ass delay.
It was MLB's call tonight not the team's since it is SF's only trip to DC for the season.
 

sean1562

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i dont even want to watch it. man, DC sports teams are cursed. wilson ramos was a big part of their team last year and they lost him right before the playoffs. now this. they were never gonna be a beter team than the dodgers but still, def a WS contender. Now, they will need a ton of luck and Michael Taylor and Trea Turner to come back really strong to make up for this. With the loss of Eaton I guess it was just not their year. I really hope Harper stays on the Nats.
 

Apisith

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That seems to be the best possible news for a fall like that. At least it wasn't the dreaded double ACL/MCL tear.
 

Oppo

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That seems to be the best possible news for a fall like that. At least it wasn't the dreaded double ACL/MCL tear.
The team saying he hyperextended his knee doesn't preclude it being ACL/PCL/MCL
 

loshjott

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Tweet from Dan Kolko of MASN:

Bryce Harper has a significant bone bruise in his knee but no ligament or tendon tears, Rizzo says. Nats optimistic he'll play this season

I'm still leery of this season, but whew!
 

Sam Ray Not

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Sounds like the Kevin Durant injury, which was 5-6 week recovery time, including rehab. Huge sigh of relief for Nats fans -- which doesn't include me, but I like Harper and hate all injuries, so: "whew"!

If Harper had been out (or takes longer than expected to recover) it was really starting to look like a red carpet to the WS for the Dodgers. This keeps things in the NL at least mildly interesting.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yr, OPS+, DWAR WAR

'12 118 1.4 5.3
'13 133 -0.1 3.7
'14 111 -0.7 1.0
'15 199 0.4 9.9
'16 116 -1.0 1.6
'17 264 0.1 1.3


I know it means nothing. Just funny how that works out sometimes. He's better with the bat and glove on odd years. '12 being the exception. He's almost offered just as much value this year in 14 games as he did in 147 games last year.
2017: 158, 0.0, 4.7 (year totals)
2018: 127, -1.0, 0.5.

Take that, Josh Beckett.
 

grimshaw

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I'm not sure who has cost themselves more money between Harper and Kershaw this season between performance and injury, but Machado is the clear winner for 2019 right now.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not sure who has cost themselves more money between Harper and Kershaw this season between performance and injury, but Machado is the clear winner for 2019 right now.
I might be on an island but all things being equal, I'd prefer Betts over Harper. Harper is just really inconsistent from year to year and if you are going to pay someone that amount of money, you want more than 2 WAR.
 

grimshaw

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I might be on an island but all things being equal, I'd prefer Betts over Harper. Harper is just really inconsistent from year to year and if you are going to pay someone that amount of money, you want more than 2 WAR.
You're on Pangaea, I'd say. I would think most GM's would much rather have Betts.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You're on Pangaea, I'd say. I would think most GM's would much rather have Betts.
Heh. Rethinking it, probably. This season does take away a lot of shine from Harper and adds a lot of it to Betts. I'd guess before the season started, it would have been different.
 

jon abbey

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Heh. Rethinking it, probably. This season does take away a lot of shine from Harper and adds a lot of it to Betts. I'd guess before the season started, it would have been different.
Maybe, but Betts has the proven dominant defense, that is much more reliable.
 

pokey_reese

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I might be on an island but all things being equal, I'd prefer Betts over Harper. Harper is just really inconsistent from year to year and if you are going to pay someone that amount of money, you want more than 2 WAR.
What's insane is his batted ball data. He has a BABIP of .220, despite a 'hard hit' percentage over 40%, and a 22% LD rate. He is walking almost 20% of his plate appearances, and has a HR/FB rate of 25%! Everything about Harper suggests that he should have much better numbers, he is basically having worse luck than JBJ on balls in play but still putting up a 119 wRC+. If his BIP luck normalizes in the second half he is an MVP candidate with 40 HRs and a .400 OBP.
 

nvalvo

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Harper has a wild stat line if you look through it (fangraphs). His batted ball numbers are possibly even better than 2017, but his BABIP is down .136! He's still hitting HR at a good clip; an ISO of .260 is elite. LD up a tick, GB down a tick. Hard-hit balls up at the expense of both Med and Soft.

If BABIP takes some air out of his contract, it might actually end up being a great value.

edit: or what Pokey said.
 

dcmissle

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It will be interesting to see whether the Nats make a serious run at re-signing Harper. A compelling case can be made that with Robles and Soto in the pipeline, and serious needs elsewhere, the money would be better spent elsewhere. And if you’re determined for whatever reason to make a massive investment in one player, they’d probably be better off with Machado.

On the other hand, Scott Boras is like a silent partner in this franchise. He represents a boatload of Nats; the Matt Wieters contract was and remains a joke. So who knows — I wouldn’t be shocked if they played to help Boras establish a floor. Or maybe the play as well because Harper is this “new” franchise’s foundational player — even though he has not played like one.

He is very good, not great, and as the years pile up the burden of proof falls more heavily on the folks who insist he is a generational player.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I’m guessing his spray chart is incredibly consistent both on type of pitch and location? Thus he is much easier to defend?
 

tims4wins

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How good is Harper? He has a pair of sub 800 OPS seasons plus a couple more sub 850. Only 2 truly elite offensive seasons. Super inconsistent player it seems. I mean .213 this year? Even the best have peaks and valleys but Harper seems an extreme case.
 

BigSoxFan

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How good is Harper? He has a pair of sub 800 OPS seasons plus a couple more sub 850. Only 2 truly elite offensive seasons. Super inconsistent player it seems. I mean .213 this year? Even the best have peaks and valleys but Harper seems an extreme case.
Batting .213 this late in the season is pretty awful. I follow him daily for fantasy purposes and he seems to have multiple K's basically every game now. I don't know if it's injuries, pressure of a contract year, or some other unknown reason but he's been bad. His BABIP is only .220 so that's probably causing some of this but the increased K rate has to be concerning.

His peak is obviously MVP caliber player but I'd have real reservations about his ability to maintain that level of performance, especially considering that his defense is only so-so. It will be fascinating to see what he ultimately ends up with. I bet someone still approaches the $400M he is rumored to want but maybe now it's more like $350M.
 

NYCSox

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Batting .213 this late in the season is pretty awful. I follow him daily for fantasy purposes and he seems to have multiple K's basically every game now. I don't know if it's injuries, pressure of a contract year, or some other unknown reason but he's been bad. His BABIP is only .220 so that's probably causing some of this but the increased K rate has to be concerning.

His peak is obviously MVP caliber player but I'd have real reservations about his ability to maintain that level of performance, especially considering that his defense is only so-so. It will be fascinating to see what he ultimately ends up with. I bet someone still approaches the $400M he is rumored to want but maybe now it's more like $350M.
Once he starts playing 81 games in the little league park in the Bronx all bets are off.
 

Murderer's Crow

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You have to wonder if any offensive players bought-in too early on the flyball revolution and adjusted their swings to their own detriment.
 

grimshaw

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Natinals should consider trading him.
I thought of that too, but I can only see it if they think they have no shot at re-signing him. If he goes to a contender and they win the WS, then that's probably a place he'd rather stay.

They are still just 5 out though despite playing shitty baseball lately.
 

sean1562

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I would be surprised if they re sign him at this point, with Soto’s emergence. OF isn’t a pressing need and they probably need another pitcher
 

Cesar Crespo

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Been especially bad over his last 32 games: .167/.331/.324 on a .234 BAbip in 136 PA.
Since May 5th: .182/.309/.385 on a .222 BAbip in 230 PA. Or about as productive as Sandy Leon, though they get there in a different fashion.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I thought of that too, but I can only see it if they think they have no shot at re-signing him. If he goes to a contender and they win the WS, then that's probably a place he'd rather stay.

They are still just 5 out though despite playing shitty baseball lately.
Or do like the NYY did with that domestic violence closer guy. Trade him for prospects then sign him again. Win win
 

jon abbey

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Also Joe Pos pointed out today that he is having an awful defensive year.

"In Washington, a sort of counter-Schwarber thing is happening to Harper. He came into the season with a solid reputation as a defender. Harper worked hard, showed athleticism, went all-out after balls, smashed into walls. Nobody was going to give him a Gold Glove Award, but he helped his team defensively. Everybody thought so.

This year, Harper is having a disastrous season defensively, utterly disastrous. The numbers suggest he has been one of the worst defenders in the game. Harper has minus-1.6 wins defensively at Baseball Reference. Dewan has him making 13 fewer plays than the average outfielder."

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-kyle-schwarber-has-improved-on-defense/c-285126178