Celtics Regular Season thread

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How concerned are we about Bradley's Achilles injury? 17 out of 18 games missed. I'm getting worried that this lingers throughout the season.
Seems to me that, since they have the luxury to do so, they are getting him back to 100% before he returns. After watching guys play at 75% last year in the playoffs, and the depth of this team, there is no reason to rush him back.
 

DJnVa

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Playing at a 60+ win pace over the last 30 or games.

Eight of next 11 on the road. If they're still hanging around the Cavs at that point, this gets interesting.
 
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luckiestman

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Kelly is 13 & 6.5 in his last 10 on 23 mpg; per 36 that is right around 20/10. Not bad
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Marcus Smart, who really deserves his own thread, had eight steals tonight. The last person to have that many steals was Rondo almost six full years ago. Before that you have to go back to 1999 when the Truth did it. Before that, you have to go back to Bird who did it twice in 1985-86 and once in 1986-87.
 

Koufax

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IT, when asked after the game if he thought he could catch Wesbrook for the scoring title, said "Yeah, I think I can do that."
This is getting ridiculous. In a virtual tie for Larry Bird in points per game?
On the radio tonight it was said that there are 31 instances of a Celtic having 8 or more made free throws in a game this season. IT - 31; rest of the team - 0.
What is going on here?
 

tbrown_01923

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Video Game Mode - it's stupid. Smart also had Video Game Mode enabled last night - some of those eight steals were unfair. He must be terrifying to to face as an equal sized player, but if you are smaller you must wet yourself.


IT, when asked after the game if he thought he could catch Wesbrook for the scoring title, said "Yeah, I think I can do that."
This is getting ridiculous. In a virtual tie for Larry Bird in points per game?
On the radio tonight it was said that there are 31 instances of a Celtic having 8 or more made free throws in a game this season. IT - 31; rest of the team - 0.
What is going on here?
 

DannyDarwinism

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Marcus Smart, who really deserves his own thread, had eight steals tonight. The last person to have that many steals was Rondo almost six full years ago. Before that you have to go back to 1999 when the Truth did it. Before that, you have to go back to Bird who did it twice in 1985-86 and once in 1986-87.
He's really stepped up since Bradley went down. The problem is, when they're on the floor together with IT, the Celtics are getting smoked. Brad's going to have some interesting decisions to make once Bradley gets healthy.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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... The problem is, when they're on the floor together with IT, the Celtics are getting smoked. Brad's going to have some interesting decisions to make once Bradley gets healthy.
Yeah, that threesome is just too height-challenged, although I wonder whether adding Olynyk and Horford to that trio could work. I don't think Brad's used that lineup often. It would certainly be a good shooting line-up. Depending on the athleticism of the other team's 4 and 5, it might work defensively, or at least not be horrible.

Mainly, I think he needs to rotate those 3 through the two guard spots, with Smart getting some occasional match-ups against smaller 3s.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Marcus Smart, who really deserves his own thread, had eight steals tonight.
Agreed, Kelly should have a thread as well, performance as well as what it will take to extend them.

What can we expect to see Marcus get extended at this offseason? Take the class before him, a much worse draft class but still some good comps. Would Marcus be the Jimmy Butler type player who bets on himself and forgoes even RFA in summer 2018? Looking for Max in 2019 summer? Doubtful since there is so much money out there.

Looking at the below comps of players signed this past summer to extensions what can we expect to see for Marcus?

Pick 2 - Victor Oladipo - 4/84
Pick 3 - Otto Porter - To be RFA
Pick 4 - Cody Zeller 4/56
Pick 5 - Ben McLemore
Pick 6 - Nerlens Noel to be RFA
Pick 7 - KCP to be RFA
Pick 10 - CJ McCollum - 4/106
Pick 12 - Steven Adams 4/100
Pick 13- Kelly - to be RFA
Pick 15 - Giannias 4/100
Pick 16 - Schroder - To be RFA
Pick 27 - Rudy Gobert 4/102

There won't be as much "crazy/stupid" money thrown around this summer to restricted and unrestricted free agents as there was last year with the cap increase. But I would expect them to be similar. Marcus is probably in the Oladipo range. But could be up there with CJ. And, wow, Giannis is underpaid.
 

JakeRae

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They are going to have a very difficult decision on Olynyk next year. If they sign him or even qualify him, it takes them out of the top free agent market. And, with his skill set, he'll be highly sought after as a FA and will get paid, if not by the Celtics then by another team.

I kind of wonder if they should start him now, see what he gives them (or fails to) as a full time player.
Can't they qualify him and still play the FA game? Walking away from Amir, Jerebko, and Zeller frees up a lot of money. I also think it's likely Avery Bradley gets moved at some point (he seems like the most likely odd man out out of the IT/Smart/Bradley three-choose-two they have). Extending a QO doesn't take that much and wouldn't conflict with signing, say, Hayward and then going over the cap to keep Olynyk and extend Smart. I haven't carefully gone over the numbers, so if someone tells me I'm wrong, I'll believe them. The big thing to note is that a casual glance might not show that Zeller isn't actually on the books for next year, which gives them 25 million off the top in expiring money. The cap is expected to grow to $102 million, which is a pretty big jump too. It looks to me like they can easily spend around $30 million on a free agent if the right opportunity exists and still keep everyone except the vet role players.
 

bowiac

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Yeah, that threesome is just too height-challenged, although I wonder whether adding Olynyk and Horford to that trio could work. I don't think Brad's used that lineup often. It would certainly be a good shooting line-up. Depending on the athleticism of the other team's 4 and 5, it might work defensively, or at least not be horrible.

Mainly, I think he needs to rotate those 3 through the two guard spots, with Smart getting some occasional match-ups against smaller 3s.
I agree it looks like those three are worse than the sum of their parts. From NBAwowy:

Smart/Thomas/Bradley together score 110.9/100 possessions, and allow 114.8/100 possessions (net -3.9)
Smart/Thomas without Bradley are net +9.3.
Bradley/Thomas without Smart are net +2.3
Bradley/Smart without Thomas are net +1.1

The fact that the unit without Bradley is amazing does tend to confirm my suspicion that Bradley is the most expendable of the three.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Someone on this board mentioned it last year I think, but an Avery Bradley+ for Khris Middleton would make sense for both teams. That was before Middleton's injury though, nevermind Jabari's. Not sure what the plus would be either. Offensively, they are about the same with Middleton being the better passer and more room for growth. Defensively, the 6'8 Middleton at SG matches up with Smart and IT much better.

If Middleton makes a full recovery, would people trade Avery and Jaylen Brown for him? Would the Bucks?

Re Olynyk, he's basically been the same player is whole career and is going on 26 years old. Usually if players make the jump it's at 24 or 25. When his shots are falling, he looks like a guy who could play 30 minutes a night. When his shot isn't falling (December), people are calling him the biggest bust that ever did bust. He's a 7 footer who can stretch the floor and is going to get paid. Not sure if it will be the Celtics paying him but he does offer a unique skill set no one else on the C's offers.

Re Smart, he's been improving as the season goes along and is going on 23 years old. In 27 games since 12/23, he's at .393/.358/.837 11.6ppg, 5.0apg, 3.7rpg 2.2spg in 32.1mpg. The .358 from 3 is 38-106 shooting. I'm biased against guards who can't shoot and because of this I tend to underrate them, but if he's hitting on 35% of his 3's, Marcus Smart is a stud.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I agree it looks like those three are worse than the sum of their parts. From NBAwowy:

Smart/Thomas/Bradley together score 110.9/100 possessions, and allow 114.8/100 possessions (net -3.9)
Smart/Thomas without Bradley are net +9.3.
Bradley/Thomas without Smart are net +2.3
Bradley/Smart without Thomas are net +1.1

The fact that the unit without Bradley is amazing does tend to confirm my suspicion that Bradley is the most expendable of the three.
Agree completely. Bradley ought to have tremendous value to the right team, though. (Basically anyone with a PG who can guard 2s and a need for shooting and man D against PGs).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He's really stepped up since Bradley went down. The problem is, when they're on the floor together with IT, the Celtics are getting smoked. Brad's going to have some interesting decisions to make once Bradley gets healthy.
I think those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being - the three were regularly getting smoked in the early going when the Cs were playing poorly and I'm pretty sure we discussed this a bit in one of these threads. As the Cs have been playing almost lights out in the time AB has been injured (causation or correlation?), the numbers without Bradley are going to be skewed.

It will be interesting to see what happens when AB comes back.
 

Koufax

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Olynyk didn't shoot for 6 months because of his shoulder injury and it's taken him some time to get his shot back. He's been shooting better in recent weeks and hopefully this keeps up.
QUOTE]
That's a good point about his shoulder. I remember him as a good shooter and yet he's seemed so mediocre this year -- until the last few games. Maybe that's the explanation.

I think his defense has gotten high grades here this year. To my surprise and perhaps to the surprise of others, his offense seemed to have fallen off. I will however admit to being surprised by his athleticism with the ball around the basket. He's been impressive down low.
 

the moops

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If Middleton makes a full recovery, would people trade Avery and Jaylen Brown for him? Would the Bucks?
With Jabari going down, I could maybe sort of see a Brown for Middleton straight up deal (with appropriate salary coming from BOS as well). Without Jabari going down, I could have seen a Bradley for Middletone straight up.

I can't see any scenario where BOS gives up both Bradley and Brown unless someone a lot better than Middleton is coming back.
 

Cesar Crespo

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With Jabari going down, I could maybe sort of see a Brown for Middleton straight up deal (with appropriate salary coming from BOS as well). Without Jabari going down, I could have seen a Bradley for Middletone straight up.

I can't see any scenario where BOS gives up both Bradley and Brown unless someone a lot better than Middleton is coming back.
Maybe both is too much, but Jaylen Brown alone is way too little. If Jaylen turned into Middleton, we'd all be ecstatic. That's close to best case scenario. Of course I think Middleton is better than Jabari Parker so there's that. I also think he could take yet another step forward offensively like he did last year. It would be AB+ or JB+ at the least. Or maybe I'm just a Middleton fanboy but if he's fully healthy he's one of the most underrated players in the league and would fill a huge need for the Celtics.
 

JakeRae

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Maybe both is too much, but Jaylen Brown alone is way too little. If Jaylen turned into Middleton, we'd all be ecstatic. That's close to best case scenario. Of course I think Middleton is better than Jabari Parker so there's that. I also think he could take yet another step forward offensively like he did last year. It would be AB+ or JB+ at the least. Or maybe I'm just a Middleton fanboy but if he's fully healthy he's one of the most underrated players in the league and would fill a huge need for the Celtics.
Meh, I think Middleton and Bradley are more or less comparable players. I'm not sure I'd trade Jaylen for either, although I wouldn't think someone was crazy to want to do so for either. His "improvement" last year was mostly just getting more minutes. I think there's a reasonable chance that Jaylen Brown won't ever be as good as either Middleton or Bradley, but his ceiling is still being a true impact player, whereas Middleton and Bradley are just solid role players. As far as the current Celtics, they really don't need another perimeter role player. The only 1-3 position talent they should be looking to add is an elite player. Middleton wouldn't move the needle as far as how good this Celtics team is.
 

bowiac

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I think that's selling Middleton well short. Bradley is a pretty seriously flawed player who only works in certain contexts. He's too small to be a plus defender against SGs, and can't initiate the offense well enough to be a primary point. He's a good fit on the Celtics, who can cover up a lot of his flaws, but they're limiting all the same.

Middleton doesn't have any of those issues. He's got ideal size, can defend multiple positions, is as good or better a shooter as Bradley, is a better passer. Middleton isn't the best player on a championship team, but he's a lot more than a role player (20th in RPM last year for instance).
 

JakeRae

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I think that's selling Middleton well short. Bradley is a pretty seriously flawed player who only works in certain contexts. He's too small to be a plus defender against SGs, and can't initiate the offense well enough to be a primary point. He's a good fit on the Celtics, who can cover up a lot of his flaws, but they're limiting all the same.

Middleton doesn't have any of those issues. He's got ideal size, can defend multiple positions, is as good or better a shooter as Bradley, is a better passer. Middleton isn't the best player on a championship team, but he's a lot more than a role player (20th in RPM last year for instance).
They are similar shooters, Bradley is a much better rebounder (as of this year), Middleton is a much better passer, and both players defend two positions. They aren't the same player, and Middleton has been more consistently the quality of player that Bradley is this year, but I don't see a clear reason to think of Middleton as much more than a slight upgrade who is a 2/3 instead of a 1/2 (in Bradley's case, the 1 only applies on the defensive end).
 

Fishy1

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They are similar shooters, Bradley is a much better rebounder (as of this year), Middleton is a much better passer, and both players defend two positions. They aren't the same player, and Middleton has been more consistently the quality of player that Bradley is this year, but I don't see a clear reason to think of Middleton as much more than a slight upgrade who is a 2/3 instead of a 1/2 (in Bradley's case, the 1 only applies on the defensive end).
Middleton is a much better player.

Everyone thinks of Bradley as this scrappy ball-hawk, and it's true that when he's pressuring ball-handlers he's really good -- but he barely does that at all anymore. As for off-ball defense, he gets caught ball-watching all the time. I've been watching Bradley get killed on back-cuts for forever now. And it's really hard for him to close-out well because of his size. In a switchy defense, it's really hard for him to be valuable. It doesn't help that he's got an inflated sense of his own usefulness on that end.

And offensively, Middleton is just a way better player. He gets to the line more, he's a better 3 point shooter for his career, and while Bradley has improved hugely as a shooter and as a ball handler, the guy cannot pass. At all.

And the rebound thing is just scheme. It's not like Bradley is ripping down 3 or 4 offensive rebounds a game. Our bigs are terrible rebounders, so they have to rely on guards crashing while they box out.
 

reggiecleveland

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The rebounding is becoming a real concern for me. Outrebounded by 15 vs the Hawks. Not sure what the solutions are, but this is a big weakness. The guys they have are good players, but the bigs all have talents other than rebounding.
 

BigSoxFan

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The rebounding is becoming a real concern for me. Outrebounded by 15 vs the Hawks. Not sure what the solutions are, but this is a big weakness. The guys they have are good players, but the bigs all have talents other than rebounding.
Maybe we should have signed Howard instead of Horford?

(Ducks)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I don't see how a rebounder helps this team given Stevens' switch heavy defense. Half the problem is that Al ends up guarding smalls and Rozier and IT4 and AB end up guarding bigger guys. Maybe this is just confirmation bias but it seems to me that the Cs only get the rebounds that bounce a few feet from the rim but those that are close are usually gobbled up an opponent's big who is being boxed out by a guard.
 

smastroyin

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I'm smart enough to know I'm attributing improperly, but I hope that the end of the 20 point streak means we don't see too many more nights (or any more) where IT puts up 17 missed FG.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
I'm smart enough to know I'm attributing improperly, but I hope that the end of the 20 point streak means we don't see too many more nights (or any more) where IT puts up 17 missed FG.
Right? Those are going to happen, but maybe he stops taking unnecessary heat check shots. I'm ok with most of the shots he takes, but contested ones with 15 left on the shot clock drive me nuts.

Where would the Cs be without him being the one man wrecking crew in the fourth though? 5th seed at the very best, but probably 7th?
 

reggiecleveland

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I don't see how a rebounder helps this team given Stevens' switch heavy defense. Half the problem is that Al ends up guarding smalls and Rozier and IT4 and AB end up guarding bigger guys. Maybe this is just confirmation bias but it seems to me that the Cs only get the rebounds that bounce a few feet from the rim but those that are close are usually gobbled up an opponent's big who is being boxed out by a guard.
A guy that wins more of 50/50 balls, gets more of boards, would change the balance a bit. But, perhaps Brad has to make some adjustments to rebound better.
 

Cesar Crespo

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, i mean does anyone have a worse .gif not top 10 reel in the nba than KO?
Shawn Bradley? I feel the same way about guards who can't shoot that you do about Kelly O so it's taken me awhile to warm up to Marcus Smart. I constantly underrate him but now I'm starting to believe Smart has an actual chance of improving his 3 point shot and becoming a fringe all star. I don't believe that about KO, but KO is 26 next month, Smart is 23 in 2 days.
 

Red Averages

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Cavs rest LeBron and Kyrie tonight vs Miami and get blown out by 30. Wonder how much more they do down the stretch. While the #1 seed may not mean a whole lot to them it would clearly help the Celtics a great deal to get it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So how about Terry Rozier? Over his last 17 games he is shooting .375/.432/.909. 19/44 from 3 in that time, and 17/52 from 2.

He is at .373/.345/.775 for the year. 48/139 from three. He's wildly inconsistent on what he'll give you every night but nice to see the 3's starting to fall for him and Jaylen Brown.
 

DJnVa

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I lost the link, but apparently IT is a little miffed at some of the lineups and experimenting and said that shouldn't be happening in game #63
 

smastroyin

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Yeah, if he's miffed he should take it to Ainge. I'm not sure what Stevens is supposed to do with rotations when he loses two of his 4 guys over 6'9"
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Yeah, if he's miffed he should take it to Ainge. I'm not sure what Stevens is supposed to do with rotations when he loses two of his 4 guys over 6'9"
I know Bogut just got hurt on a freak play but I'm still baffled they didn't shell out one of their three 2nd rounders for him.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Fantastic night. Avery played so very well and made something happen, with the steal and dunk, that seemed like it happened nightly last year.

Keep his minutes low for the next couple of weeks to keep him fresh and ready for 33 minutes a game in the first round.

Fantastic D.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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As I pointed out in the game-thread, I doubt anyone - and that includes San Antonio, Toronto and the Wizards, would relish drawing the Celtics, at full strength, in a seven game series. The C's will struggle to score. But so too with the other guys and aside from the Spurs and Warriors, no team is more well coached than Boston.
 

luckiestman

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As I pointed out in the game-thread, I doubt anyone - and that includes San Antonio, Toronto and the Wizards, would relish drawing the Celtics, at full strength, in a seven game series. The C's will struggle to score. But so too with the other guys and aside from the Spurs and Warriors, no team is more well coached than Boston.

Kerr's good but he's not clearly better than Brad, Spo, Carlisle or Bud from what I've seen.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Kerr's good but he's not clearly better than Brad, Spo, Carlisle or Bud from what I've seen.
I disagree. My top five coaches in the NBA are, in order, as follows:

Pop
Stevens
Kerr
Budenholzer
Spoelstra (and I fully admit I was a doubter early on)

And the first three are actually a notch above the last two for their ability to implement a system that maximizes their roster's talent level (though Spoelstra is showing me something this year).
 

cardiacs

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The Celtics play much better as a unit with Horford on the floor.
Isaiah's shot looks off - something has been up since the all-star game.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
The Celtics play much better as a unit with Horford on the floor.
Isaiah's shot looks off - something has been up since the all-star game.

The first sentence is an understatement. Last night he was timid to shoot at first it seemed.

Isaiah may not be off, but he may not be taking the third and fourth bad shot that he usually takes to get heated up. He is trying to distribute a bit more, which is great. Just from the eye test the offense, and obviously the defense, looked better with Smart and Bradley on the floor rather than one of them and Isaiah last night. But do we win the game without Isaiah? Maybe, but I would say the odds are worse.
 

lexrageorge

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As I pointed out in the game-thread, I doubt anyone - and that includes San Antonio, Toronto and the Wizards, would relish drawing the Celtics, at full strength, in a seven game series. The C's will struggle to score. But so too with the other guys and aside from the Spurs and Warriors, no team is more well coached than Boston.
The one thing that could derail the Celtics would be an unfavorable first round matchup. Yes, I'm looking at the Hawks, which is not out of the realm of possibility. Really glad that 11 of their final 16 games are at home. Once they come back from Denver, they don't even leave the eastern time zone.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Finally finished the game. Noted that the 4Q run was accomplished withouting playing IT4, AB, and Smart together. Hopefully Brad figures out that while that lineup is good in theory, in practise, it's not really workable except against certain very specific lineups (i.e., Curry, Klay, McCaw, Green, and Iguadola).
 

cardiacs

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After looking at the home/road splits and way recent games have gone I am going to call this now and say the Celtics will take the #1 seed, provided they can stay healthy.
 

smastroyin

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I think that's pretty bold. The Cavs might not be the 1 seed, but I think there's a good chance the Wizards pass the Celtics and there's also a chance that the Raptors do (less so without Lowry of course). The biggest advantage for the C's is their schedule, as you imply.

Just looking:
Celtics: 11 home games, 6 road games, only 1 b-t-b, though it's a tough one: CLE/@ATL. 6 total games against playoff teams, 2 against top 4 seeds
Wizards: 6 home games, 13 road games, 4 b-t-b (@SAC/@POR, CHI/@CHA, BKN/@CLE, @LAL/@LAC). 8 games against playoff teams, 4 against top 4 seed
Raptors: 9 home, 9 road, 3 b-t-b (@ATL/@MIA, OKC/@DET, @IND/@DET) 10 games against playoff teams, though only 1 against a top 4 seed (closing game of season against CLE)

So the C's have schedule advantage and maybe you say they are going to stay healthy finally (at least the starting 5) and play better than they have been. The Wizards have the worst schedule but have been playing the best ball over the past 30 games.

The relative positions of the C's and the Wizards is probably going to come down to their remaining HTH game, and how the Wizards do on their tough west coast trip (LAL, LAC on second night, then UTA and GS).
 
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HomeRunBaker

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As I pointed out in the game-thread, I doubt anyone - and that includes San Antonio, Toronto and the Wizards, would relish drawing the Celtics, at full strength, in a seven game series. The C's will struggle to score. But so too with the other guys and aside from the Spurs and Warriors, no team is more well coached than Boston.
I disagree on including Toronto in this group. There isn't a team who is a worse matchup for us......they are VERY comfortable in the 4th quarters against us in isolating DeRozan in mismatches. We lose the matchup at virtually every position on the floor versus them and they know this.
 
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cardiacs

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I agree completely with this. Toronto is the worst matchup for the Celtics and it was very clear at the end of the last few games against them. I feel better playing anyone else in the league.