AKA : they got both pick combinations so they had to re select #2Mark Medina @MarkG_Medina 6m6 minutes ago
Sixers originally got the No. 2 pick. But since Sixers already had No. 1 pick, ping pong balls were drawn again.
Actually AB is the quality player I'd most be willing to trade since we have so many guards and Rozier's game is pretty close to his.Package this, the other first rounder and whatever roster player(s) it takes, save AB and IT, for Cousins.
I thought the same thing at first. But then I thought - he's our only reliable shooter. Not sure they can afford to lose him.Actually AB is the quality player I'd most be willing to trade since we have so many guards and Rozier's game is pretty close to his.
It's an anti-Nugget conspiracy?It could worse Celtics fans: you could be a nuggets fan, the only team that has never moved up in the lottery.
More proof this thing is rigged.
Only three lottery spots are chosen. So the odds of the draft going chalk as it did were (Odds that PHI gets the #1) x (Odds that LAL gets the #2) x (Odds the BOS gets 3).My math could be way off, but I believe the chances of draft order being same as lottery position is something like 0.02%
It's actually higher, since the .188 and .156 make up a higher proportion of the balls after the first and second picks, respectively.Only three lottery spots are chosen. So the odds of the draft going chalk as it did were (Odds that PHI gets the #1) x (Odds that LAL gets the #2) x (Odds the BOS gets 3).
(.269) x (.188) x (.156) = 0.0078, or 0.78%
Unlikely, yes, but still the most likely of all possible outcomes.
That's not even right, because once Philly gets the #1 pick, LA's probability of being #2 increases. And when LA gets #2, Boston's probability of #3 goes up.Only three lottery spots are chosen. So the odds of the draft going chalk as it did were (Odds that PHI gets the #1) x (Odds that LAL gets the #2) x (Odds the BOS gets 3).
(.269) x (.188) x (.156) = 0.0078, or 0.78%
Unlikely, yes, but still the most likely of all possible outcomes.
It's actually higher, since the .188 and .156 make up a higher proportion of the balls after the first and second picks, respectively.
Should have known I was missing something there, thanks.That's not even right, because once Philly gets the #1 pick, LA's probability of being #2 increases. And when LA gets #2, Boston's probability of #3 goes up.
Only three lottery spots are chosen. So the odds of the draft going chalk as it did were (Odds that PHI gets the #1) x (Odds that LAL gets the #2) x (Odds the BOS gets 3).
(.269) x (.188) x (.156) = 0.0078, or 0.78%
Unlikely, yes, but still the most likely of all possible outcomes.
Ah, yes, that makes sense. I was thinking odds of everyone staying in their draft slot, but that's absurd.That's not even right, because once Philly gets the #1 pick, LA's probability of being #2 increases. And when LA gets #2, Boston's probability of #3 goes up.
Inside the closed-off drawing room, where everyone has to give up their phones and computers so the results remain secret, the rest of the lottery unfolded in order for the first time in league history. But if you knew the system, there was still at least one moment of glorious, absurd, delicious lottery-inspired tension.
After the lottery gods awarded the Lakers the No. 2 pick, league officials began drawing the four-number combo that would determine which team would pick third. The first three numbers: 9, 4, 7. If the final number were eight or higher, Minnesota, in the No. 5 slot, would leapfrog both Phoenix and Boston. If it came up as a 5 or 6, Phoenix and Boston would flip places. A 1 or 2 would mean a re-draw, because the Sixers and Lakers owned those combinations.
Wyc Grousbeck, the Celtics owner and drawing room rep, was reduced to this: hoping for "3," the only ball that would hold Boston in the No. 3 slot, a one-in-eleven shot at that exact moment.
"I was just thinking, 'Oh, no! Only one ball can save us now!'" Grousbeck told me afterward, when we were all sequestered in the drawing room.
Guessing there are a certain amount of 1s, 2s, 3s, etc. in the machine but i may be wrongOne in 11? Is there a digit in there twice?
So I believe the odds of staying in the order of finish are: .269 x .199/(1.0-.250) x .156(1.0 - .250 - .199) = .0202. That is about a 2% chance unless there is an error in my construct.That's not even right, because once Philly gets the #1 pick, LA's probability of being #2 increases. And when LA gets #2, Boston's probability of #3 goes up.
One in 11? Is there a digit in there twice?
- The hopper has 14 balls (numbered 1-14), and they pull 4 balls for each draw.Guessing there are a certain amount of 1s, 2s, 3s, etc. in the machine but i may be wrong
Guessing there are a certain amount of 1s, 2s, 3s, etc. in the machine but i may be wrong
Got it. Thanks. I was thinking they'd just have 3 hoppers with 10 balls each.- The hopper has 14 balls (numbered 1-14), and they pull 4 balls for each draw.
- Draws are combinations, not permutations (1,2,3,4 and 1,3,4,2 are the same)
- Combos are assigned to teams in draft order and ascending numerical order, so basically Philly had all the combos with "1" and LA all the combos with "2"
So: By the time of the 3rd pick, all combos involving 1 or 2 are ineligible so those balls can be removed from the hopper. Most of the "3s" belonged to the Cs, so of the 11 remaining balls, a "3" would essentially guarantee Cs pick 3rd.
This is correct (well, close enough). The actual answer is 1.878%.I don't have the exact math breakdown but the CSNNE report I saw last night said 1.87% chance of the lottery resulting in no changes to the draft order.
Just nitpicking a bit, but Philly had a 26.9% chance of winning. The extra 1.9% was via the Kings 1st pick chances (Philly could switch picks with them in that case)This is correct (well, close enough). The actual answer is 1.878%.
Philly had a 25.0% chance of winning.
Given that Philly won the #1 pick, LA had a 26.5% chance of winning the #2 pick.
Given Philly/LA went 1/2, Boston had a 28.3% chance of winning the #3 pick.
Odds of 1/2/3 are 1.878%.
But wouldn't the odds change as the draft progressed? I mean, the odds of Boston getting the 3rd pick would shift each time the Philly combos and LA combos were removed, wouldnt they? I may be misreading what you are saying, but the odds you give assume no combinations have been removed and represent the draft before it begins. As it begins and combinations are withdrawn from consideration, Boston's odds of getting the third pick would increase.
Wouldn't this alter the odds? But then again, I may very well be full of crap and simply missing your point. That would not surprise me either.