If you told me before the season started the Friars would be 18-6 at this juncture, including a split with Nova and sweep of Butler, I would have been satisfied. If you then told me Ben Bentil was leading the conference in scoring and emerging as one of the nation's most improved players, I would have been ecstatic. It's hard to categorize the team's performance to date, and the collective development of Bentil, Cartwright and Bullock, as anything but a success.
That said, perhaps the most surprising part of this team's performance has been the play of Kris Dunn. Now it pains me to say anything but praise about Dunn, since his decision to return has made this successful season even possible. He's responsible for so many great memories, and as the school's best NBA prospect in many years (decades? ever?), he's made a tremendous contribution in elevating and shining such a positive light on the program nationally. For all of those reasons, I am grateful as a fan. But the reality is, he hasn't quite lived up to the pre-season accolades that were (deservedly) heaped upon him... at least not yet.
Dunn is one of the most dynamic defenders at the guard position that I can remember in college basketball. On that side of the ball, he's been everything we expected, and then some. He led the Big East in steals per game last year, and has somehow improved that aspect of his game, and is leading the nation this year. Depending on how much stock you put into SportsReference.com's advanced metrics at the collegiate level, he also leads the conference in Defensive Win Shares and is 4th in PER. Crazy good numbers.
Then you look at his offensive contribution, and there is a different side of the coin. Now, of course, the graduation of Henton (plus the loss of Desrosiers and Chukwu occupying bodies inside) have allowed teams to design defenses with the sole objective of neutralizing Dunn. That would impair even the greatest players' efficiency, and it's impressive he maintains a conference-leading assist rate with such a cold-shooting supporting cast. You just can't ignore his lapses in other areas during conference play -- he's constantly forcing bad shots, especially long 2s, and his FG% is an ugly 41% in Big East play (down from 48% last year). The turnovers have ticked up slightly from 4.2 to 4.3 per game, including 7 in an upset loss to Marquette and 6 each in the split with Villanova. Again, I don't take SportsReference.com as gospel, but consider his Offensive Win Shares have dropped from 2.5 to 1.4, while his True Shooting % is down more than 2pp-- despite an improvement in his 3pt shooting. FT also shooting remains a weakness at 64% in-conference and 67% on the year.
These types of stats paint an incomplete picture without proper context, and I would reiterate that I think Dunn has been *great* this season. I'm just not sure he has been All American great so far, and as a consequence, I'm not sure this team is likely to win an NCAA tournament game, unless they find a new offensive rhythm. The highs have been exhilarating, but the lows have been gut wrenching.
Still time to get back on track as others have said, but I'm not sure this team deserves to be ranked tomorrow. The advanced stats from KenPom rate the Friars 50th overall, an abysmal 126th in Adjusted Offense, with the benefit of better than expected luck so far. They're a more respectable 32nd in RPI, but the narrative could shift from "tournament lock" to "on the bubble" awfully quick, which would have been inconceivable 10 days ago.