Well, I'm on record as being a Jeff Gordon fan, so my emotional side will be rooting for a cherry on top of a remarkable career.
This year saw 23 of the 26 races spread between just 8 drivers:
- Kenseth (4)
- Ky. Busch (4)
- Johnson (4)
- Logano (3)
- Harvick (2)
- Ku. Busch (2)
- Earnhardt (2)
- Edwards (2)
Johnon's last win was mid-year at Dover (race 13), so he seems to have cooled off. But It's hard to bet against him.
Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano finished the year hot, combining to win 5 of the final 6 races, so I would not be surprised if one of them wins.
But odd things happen in the Chase, like last year's events with Brad Keselowski and Ryan Newman bouncing Gordon on an extremely odd series of events in 2 races (#2 knocking out #24 on the green-white-checkered re-start at Texas (Gordon was in the 1st row at re-start), and the following week with Newman pushing rookie Kyle Larson into the wall to take 11th at Phoenix - effectively bumping Gordon from the Chase (by 1 point), despite #24 finishing 2nd in the Phoenix race.
I'm going to say winner = Matt Kenseth.
On a side note, speculation has been out there since the even before this season began that Gordon might race part time in 2016. Gordon himself reportedly has never used the word "retire/ment"in any of his public statements/appearances.